NFL Expansion Draft 2018 - Redskins

[Woz]

15 hours ago, e16bball said:

I’d be very interested to see how it would go if they did it NHL (Vegas) style instead of classic expansion style. Where you generate a list of “protected” players instead of a list of players you’d be willing to offer up.

Like if they said you can protect 10 offensive players and 10 defensive players, and everyone else is eligible to be selected. Who are we willing to leave unprotected and gamble on losing, especially if we can’t even protect the whole starting unit? That one is the real brain teaser for me. 

Going to do this in two passes. First pass, everyone you want to keep has to be protected:

Offense:

Trent Williams, Morgan Moses, Brandon Scherff, Chase Roullier, Derrius Guice, Jamison Crowder, Paul Richardson, Josh Doctson, Alex Smith, Jordan Reed

Defense:

Jonathan Allen, Da'Ron Payne, Matt Ioannidis, Ryan Kerrigan, Preston Smith, Zach Brown, Mason Foster, Josh Norman, Fabian Moreau, D.J. Swearinger

 

Second pass, since I would assume this expansion would take place before the actual draft, you get to keep your own 2018 rookies:

Offense:

Trent Williams, Morgan Moses, Brandon Scherff, Chase Roullier, Jamison Crowder, Paul Richardson, Josh Doctson, Alex Smith, Jordan Reed, Chris Thompson

Defense:

Jonathan Allen, Matt Ioannidis, Ryan Kerrigan, Preston Smith, Zach Brown, Mason Foster, Josh Norman, Fabian Moreau, D.J. Swearinger, Quinton Dunbar

I went with Dunbar over Nicholson due to positional value, but it was close.

[MKnight82]

DL Stacy McGee - overpaid.

CB Orlando Scandrick - here's the one 10 year vet, he's seriously injury prone.

HB Samaje Perine - he's expendable with Guice here.

MLB Mason Foster - he's at best a  stop gap solution at LBer right now.  Losing him wouldn't hurt that much.

S Deshazor Everett - what he brings to the team can probably be easily replaced by an UDFA (Blanding?)

[Woz]

26 minutes ago, MKnight82 said:

MLB Mason Foster - he's at best a  stop gap solution at LBer right now.  Losing him wouldn't hurt that much.

While I could agree that he's a stop gap, I'm not sure we have a solution that could replace him right now.

[MKnight82]

21 minutes ago, Woz said:

While I could agree that he's a stop gap, I'm not sure we have a solution that could replace him right now.

Yes but I'm not going to put up rookies on cheap contracts or talented vets up for sale.  Foster likely isn't in the long term plans.  He probably also isn't worth anything on the trade market.  Someone suggested dumping Jordan Reed for cap space.  I would think we could get some form of compensation for him on the trade market.  

[Woz]

Just now, MKnight82 said:

Yes but I'm not going to put up rookies on cheap contracts or talented vets up for sale.  Foster likely isn't in the long term plans.  He probably also isn't worth anything on the trade market.  Someone suggested dumping Jordan Reed for cap space.  I would think we could get some form of compensation for him on the trade market.  

Other than Perine.

[MKnight82]

1 minute ago, Woz said:

Other than Perine.

Well he's unique in the fact that we just drafted his replacement as the starter, Chris Thompson is the unquestioned 3rd down/scat back and Perine will just be around for injury insurance.  Its also a devalued position in the modern NFL.  So I don't think Perine would have any trade value, and we could have an injury insurance back from an UDFA.  

[turtle28]

1 hour ago, MKnight82 said:

DL Stacy McGee - overpaid.

CB Orlando Scandrick - here's the one 10 year vet, he's seriously injury prone.

HB Samaje Perine - he's expendable with Guice here.

MLB Mason Foster - he's at best a  stop gap solution at LBer right now.  Losing him wouldn't hurt that much.

S Deshazor Everett - what he brings to the team can probably be easily replaced by an UDFA (Blanding?)

Great list. I was going to change mine to include Everett and Foster since my first post was ruled out of order.

[turtle28]

9 minutes ago, MKnight82 said:

Well he's unique in the fact that we just drafted his replacement as the starter, Chris Thompson is the unquestioned 3rd down/scat back and Perine will just be around for injury insurance.  Its also a devalued position in the modern NFL.  So I don't think Perine would have any trade value, and we could have an injury insurance back from an UDFA.  

Yeah I mean Rob Kelley = Perine and Kapri Bibbs, Byron Marshall or Martez Carter may actually be a better option than Perine as reserves because of how much we pass the ball 

[turtle28]

40 minutes ago, Woz said:

While I could agree that he's a stop gap, I'm not sure we have a solution that could replace him right now.

We may if our young guys develop a bit more (Martrell Spaight/Nick Vigil/JHC/DSH) but that’s a big if.

[Woz]

Just now, turtle28 said:

We may if our young guys develop a bit more (Martrell Spaight/Nick Vigil/JHC/DSH) but that’s a big if.

Both Spaight and Vigil are entering their fourth year. Both will be unrestricted free agents at the end of the season. They've either developed at this point, or they haven't. While they're good as backup/role players at this point, I'm not sure I would feel comfortable exposing Foster, especially since both could walk after the season.

Harvey-Clemons had 9 tackles in 10 appearances and Dion Hamilton is a rookie.

If Spaight/Vigil weren't scheduled to be UFAs or there was more of a track record of JHC and SDH, then I could understand it.

[MKnight82]

23 minutes ago, Woz said:

Both Spaight and Vigil are entering their fourth year. Both will be unrestricted free agents at the end of the season. They've either developed at this point, or they haven't. While they're good as backup/role players at this point, I'm not sure I would feel comfortable exposing Foster, especially since both could walk after the season.

Harvey-Clemons had 9 tackles in 10 appearances and Dion Hamilton is a rookie.

If Spaight/Vigil weren't scheduled to be UFAs or there was more of a track record of JHC and SDH, then I could understand it.

Ok I didn't dig back through the thread until now, and randomly you had 4 out of the same 5 that I had:

20 hours ago, Woz said:

To make this fairer, I'm limiting my answers to players that could conceivably make the final 53. So I removed all of the RFA and ERFA candidates.

Stacy McGee
Orlando Scandrick
Samaje Perine
DeShazor Everett
and
one of Josh Doctson, Ryan Anderson, and Jeremy Sprinkle [they're fighting to get off the list in training camp]; dark horse add would be Jordan Reed, but the previous three would need to show they belong on the 53 (yes, I'll gamble that he'll stay relatively healthy)

So you were stuck with the 5th option as well.  I don't see how abandoning Josh Doctson, a former 1st round pick heading into his 3rd season (typically a crucial year for determining WRs development) is smart.  It doesn't save us much cap ($2.7 cap this year) and we have no other WRs on the roster with his upside.  I debated Ryan Anderson, but after only seeing a single season of him I think its too soon to abandon a former 2nd round pick.  I understand the logic on making him available though, he's definitely a longshot to become a quality player with his subpar athletic profile.  Sprinkle,  I'm hoping he develops into a solid blocking TE for us.  Also, the second Jordan Reed goes down with injury (likely within the first 3 weeks of the season) Sprinkle could be seeing regular snaps as the primary backup TE.  

Mason Foster is already 29 years old.  He's on a very reasonable contract for the next 2 years, but doesn't offer much versatility as a backup (I'm not sure he's athletic enough to be a quality special teams player, and he can only play MLB in our scheme) and he's not a high quality starter.  Is replacing Foster in the lineup with Spaight really going to be that noticeable?  Spaight might not be retained after this year either, but even if we kept Foster its not like we would have needed to upgrade that position anyways.  Foster is JAG.

[turtle28]

28 minutes ago, Woz said:

Both Spaight and Vigil are entering their fourth year. Both will be unrestricted free agents at the end of the season. They've either developed at this point, or they haven't. While they're good as backup/role players at this point, I'm not sure I would feel comfortable exposing Foster, especially since both could walk after the season.

Harvey-Clemons had 9 tackles in 10 appearances and Dion Hamilton is a rookie.

If Spaight/Vigil weren't scheduled to be UFAs or there was more of a track record of JHC and SDH, then I could understand it.

I seem to remember stating that if they did develop a bit more or even if they really showed well. Then, I said it’s a big IF.

So, I think we’re on the same page that it’s very unlikely to happen.

The only thing I would point out though is that who cares if a player is a rookie?

Payne and Guice are probably going to start, they’re rookies too. John Allen was a rookie last year, etc etc.

SDH has more talent than all of our ILBs but Zach Brown and SDH has a high football IQ/great football mind. He would’ve been a 1st or 2nd round pick if he hadn’t broken his knee cap. Do NOT sleep on SDH just because he was a 6th round pick. He’s a perfect QB of a defense, the Bamba coaches said he was a coach on the field and he started over Ruben Foster and Reggie Ragland at one time before he tore his ACL.

[Woz]

Just now, MKnight82 said:

Ok I didn't dig back through the thread until now, and randomly you had 4 out of the same 5 that I had:

Oh I was just needling you about Perine. I completely agreed with your analysis and came to the same conclusion. Yes, that was a big of a **** move, but hey, if I cannot pick on you guys from time to time, why the hell am I doing this job?

Just now, MKnight82 said:

So you were stuck with the 5th option as well.

Absolutely was. McGee was a no-brainer, and of the three 10y vet options (we only have three on the roster!), Davis and Smith would contribute way more value to the team and didn't have ready replacements, so Scandrick was easy. As you said, Perine plays the most fungible position and the Redskins just drafted his replacement so out he goes.

It's the next two that come up. Everett was a bit tough, but if I have to lose a main line 53 player, I'm okay with losing a guy whose competing for time with Swearinger and Nicholson.

But #5 was tough.

Just now, MKnight82 said:

I don't see how abandoning Josh Doctson, a former 1st round pick heading into his 3rd season (typically a crucial year for determining WRs development) is smart. It doesn't save us much cap ($2.7 cap this year) and we have no other WRs on the roster with his upside.

I didn't like putting Doctson on the list, but I worry that what we've seen from him is all we're getting at this point. My list was ordered by when the player came to the Redskins, not the order I would necessarily put in the discard list. That would likely be Sprinkle, Anderson, Doctson, in terms of most likely to go out to least likely.

Just now, MKnight82 said:

I debated Ryan Anderson, but after only seeing a single season of him I think its too soon to abandon a former 2nd round pick. I understand the logic on making him available though, he's definitely a longshot to become a quality player with his subpar athletic profile.

Since I wasn't a fan of that pick at all, I was less sold on the "well, it's a 2nd round pick, we must save it" theory. But again, he's not necessarily the first on the list.

Just now, MKnight82 said:

Sprinkle,  I'm hoping he develops into a solid blocking TE for us.  Also, the second Jordan Reed goes down with injury (likely within the first 3 weeks of the season) Sprinkle could be seeing regular snaps as the primary backup TE. 

If I have to expose a guy who I'm willing to lose, exposing a blocking TE/backup is perfectly fine by me. He kind of feels like a younger version of Logan Paulsen, a decent player but not someone I feel cannot be reasonably replaced with ease.

Just now, MKnight82 said:

Mason Foster is already 29 years old.  He's on a very reasonable contract for the next 2 years, but doesn't offer much versatility as a backup (I'm not sure he's athletic enough to be a quality special teams player, and he can only play MLB in our scheme) and he's not a high quality starter.  Is replacing Foster in the lineup with Spaight really going to be that noticeable?  Spaight might not be retained after this year either, but even if we kept Foster its not like we wouldn't have needed to upgrade that position anyways.  Foster is JAG.

And I hear you on that front.

That said, I would rather see the Redskins go into the 2019 draft and not be forced to draft an ILB because they have a gaping hole at the position. Especially since they're essentially doing that with LG.

[Woz]

Just now, turtle28 said:

I seem to remember stating that if they did develop a bit more or even if they really showed well. Then, I said it’s a big IF.

But keep in mind that this whole exercise is predicated on having to make that decision now (or at least right before the 2018 draft), not after you've seen them in the 2018 season. If you're the GM, have you seen enough from either Spaight or Vigil that makes you feel okay putting Foster at risk?

Just now, turtle28 said:

The only thing I would point out though is that who cares if a player is a rookie?

Payne and Guice are probably going to start, they’re rookies too. John Allen was a rookie last year, etc etc.

SDH has more talent than all of our ILBs but Zach Brown and SDH has a high football IQ/great football mind. He would’ve been a 1st or 2nd round pick if he hadn’t broken his knee cap. Do NOT sleep on SDH just because he was a 6th round pick. He’s a perfect QB of a defense, the Bamba coaches said he was a coach on the field and he started over Ruben Foster and Reggie Ragland at one time before he tore his ACL.

It's one thing to look at a pair of 1st round picks and a guy who probably should have been a first round pick and say "oh, they'll contribute as rookies." It's another for a 6th round rookie who has injury concerns.

I'm not saying he's trash or anything. I like the pick as it has significant upside in the 6th. However, I'm not sure if I were GM I would want to gamble my starting ILB on a guy who has significant upside but significant risk.

[turtle28]

On 6/20/2018 at 3:28 PM, Woz said:

But keep in mind that this whole exercise is predicated on having to make that decision now (or at least right before the 2018 draft), not after you've seen them in the 2018 season. If you're the GM, have you seen enough from either Spaight or Vigil that makes you feel okay putting Foster at risk?

It's one thing to look at a pair of 1st round picks and a guy who probably should have been a first round pick and say "oh, they'll contribute as rookies." It's another for a 6th round rookie who has injury concerns.

I'm not saying he's trash or anything. I like the pick as it has significant upside in the 6th. However, I'm not sure if I were GM I would want to gamble my starting ILB on a guy who has significant upside but significant risk.

It can be argued that Spaight can bring to the table most of what Foster does. Then, behind Spaight and Brown you would have Vigil, SDH & JHC battling it out for two back up ILB spots, or maybe we’d keep all three of them behind them.