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2018 Draft Eligible EDGE/RUSH Thread


CalhounLambeau

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1 hour ago, Forge said:

I think his tape is pretty ugly. You're reconciling that against top tier athleticism and potential. I think he's worth the risk in the back end of round 2 for the 49ers (and we have worked him out), but I have concerns. Some just need coaching - pass rushing technique, etc. But why in the world is he so slow off the snap? I mean, it's really bad and really noticeable. If he's that athletic, why doesn't it show on the tape more consistently? He's got legit potential - always has. He was a 5 star recruit coming out as well, I'm pretty sure. His medicals are a concern, but I would rely on the teams to clear that up, so I'm going to just let that go for now. I think that once you start looking at the edge rushers who are going to be available in this range, he has the highest upside, but there are other better football players at the position available there too. 

 

1 hour ago, BleedTheClock said:

Josh Sweat is a good run defender but not much of a pass rusher. He’s stiff and not nearly as athletic on the field as his combine would suggest. I don’t know if he was injured or what, but he has been very average as a college DE. Not an average draft prospect...an average college player. I can’t imagine him going higher than the 3rd round, but someone will probably take a shot because of his measurables and hype. And because this class is weak. 

Yeah.  These two breakdowns are pretty much what i see with Sweat too.  He's actually a pretty good run defender, but it's like he's devoid of any real pass rushing instincts.  He's slow off the snap, tentative, and doesn't really show off any of that gym shorts athleticism in getting to the QB.  You can coach up some technique here and there, but he just doesn't seem like a guy who has the mentality and really "gets it" as a pass rusher.

I almost think that for a team like the Niners, i'd be looking at him wondering if he can add some more bulk to that frame and become that heavy end on the other side, rather than as a real LEO candidate.  Which isn't exactly what his combine testing would suggest, and is less of a premium spot, but that's sorta what the tape indicates to me.

It is tough though, because of the injury stuff.  How much of not showing out his athletic traits on tape is due to a lack of full health, and those traits maybe not being 100%, and/or not fully trusting his body?  It's hard to attribute his specific weaknesses directly to health/injury, but it's hard to completely eliminate it as a factor too.

The tape really doesn't line up with the athletic testing numbers though.  So if you're spending the premium to buy that set of gym shorts testing numbers, you may not be getting at all what you're paying for on the field.

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5 hours ago, -Hope- said:

what do folks think of josh sweat? he obviously tested really well and i've seen some writing saying he didn't put up great pass rush numbers because FSU played him at 5-tech a lot of the time, which seems like it uhhhh might not be true lol, is that just someone trying to make excuses for the guy or is there legit potential there?

It could be as easy as his college DL coach not getting the best out of him. I personally don't think he's scratched the surface of how good he could be but clearly had A LOT to work on with his game

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4 hours ago, Rich7sena said:

Arden Key reportedly ran in the high 4.8s at LSU’s pro day.

Wow. I was never a big Key fan, but I never thought he was this poor of an athlete. His stock has plummeted in a years time harder than anyone I can even think of. 

Shawn Oakman, but he doesn’t really count bc no1s drafting a rapist. 

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24 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

Wow. I was never a big Key fan, but I never thought he was this poor of an athlete. His stock has plummeted in a years time harder than anyone I can even think of. 

Shawn Oakman, but he doesn’t really count bc no1s drafting a rapist. 

Plus, did you see those ankles? :D

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1 hour ago, BleedTheClock said:

Wow. I was never a big Key fan, but I never thought he was this poor of an athlete. His stock has plummeted in a years time harder than anyone I can even think of. 

Shawn Oakman, but he doesn’t really count bc no1s drafting a rapist. 

Arden Key running a 4.85 is a surprise.  Randy Gregory had a similar build and ran a 4.6 and see where that has got him so far. Did have off the field issues in college that came up again of course in the NFL so far.   But still is not the be all end all, Terrell Suggs ran a 4.8.  Is surprised about the drop with Key but one should have expected it with what happened in the off season, and was clearly not ready to go once the season started, not at top form.  I do think he is a really talented pass rusher but has more than a few questions so far about him and could drop in the draft similar to what Orlando Brown might.  Does not mean he could not become a fine player though, but could be losing millions of dollars, will see.  Could potentially be a stud 3/4 OLB, and his quickness and power for his size is what is impressive, not his straight line speed of course.  

 

Shawn Oakman yes that was a massive drop in the draft from where he was projected coming off that previous year he had.  And sure off the field stuff had something to do with it, so did his overall build and frame.  But sadly Tyreek Hill strangled his pregnant girlfriend and he is a two time Pro Bowler.   So the NFL is not exactly a league that totally is void of a "rapist" type playing in their league, and he is only one example.  

 

 

 

5 hours ago, Forge said:

He's not going in the first two rounds, right? At this point, he's like a mid rounder at best? Like Rd 4?

4th round?  That would be beyond a bargain, if he falls it should stop at round 2, would be very surprised to see him drop to 3 or 4.  Tons of used to be 1st rounders drop to the 2nd or 3rd yet still become fine players.  

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7 minutes ago, Rich7sena said:

I'd have to think that's the case. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if he gets undrafted.

What makes Arden Key a player who cannot even be drafted?  

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18 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

And sure off the field stuff had something to do with it,

Yeeeeaaaa I was gonna say, Oakman had a sexual assault charge pending and was already kicked out of PSU. Totally different.

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2 minutes ago, Jlash said:

Yeeeeaaaa I was gonna say, Oakman had a sexual assault charge pending and was already kicked out of PSU. Totally different.

Very true of course, but just as Oakman was kicked off Penn State, Tyreek Hill was kicked off Oklahoma State and "eventually pled guilty to domestic assault and battery by strangulation."

 

So again my original point, the NFL is not totally void of individuals like this, if anything they have more individuals like this than any other pro sport potentially.  

 

 

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1 minute ago, Rich7sena said:

I didn't write that he couldn't be drafted.

You said this "I'd have to think that's the case. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if he gets undrafted." 

 

Pretty sure that is a statement saying you think he could go undrafted.  I ask what exactly makes him a player who could go undrafted?  

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7 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

You said this "I'd have to think that's the case. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if he gets undrafted." 

 

Pretty sure that is a statement saying you think he could go undrafted.  I ask what exactly makes him a player who could go undrafted?  

Oh, that's different. I think he can be drafted, I just wouldn't be surprised if he wasn't.

There are a lot of red flags both on the field and off the field. They're also very list-able:

  • Mysteriously leaves team after the 2016 season
  • Returns to the team out of shape
  • Plays badly in 2017
  • Loses weight and still plays badly
  • Shows up under 240 lbs. at the combine
  • Jumps poorly and agility drills are just okay
  • Runs very poorly at the combine

I'll even go back to pre-stock-nosedive Key and say he still had a lot to prove entering the 2017 season. He was very undersized and used virtually zero pass rush technique to win. Now, it turns out he's also unathletic. He reminds me of former Florida Gator rusher Alex McAlister (turns out they tested pretty similarly) who went in the 7th round in 2016.

 

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39 minutes ago, Rich7sena said:

Oh, that's different. I think he can be drafted, I just wouldn't be surprised if he wasn't.

There are a lot of red flags both on the field and off the field. They're also very list-able:

  • Mysteriously leaves team after the 2016 season
  • Returns to the team out of shape
  • Plays badly in 2017
  • Loses weight and still plays badly
  • Shows up under 240 lbs. at the combine
  • Jumps poorly and agility drills are just okay
  • Runs very poorly at the combine

I'll even go back to pre-stock-nosedive Key and say he still had a lot to prove entering the 2017 season. He was very undersized and used virtually zero pass rush technique to win. Now, it turns out he's also unathletic. He reminds me of former Florida Gator rusher Alex McAlister (turns out they tested pretty similarly) who went in the 7th round in 2016.

 

Alex McAlister is similar to Key in a lot of ways, similar height at 6-6 with a 4.8 40 time, but still a very talented player and could easily have went a little higher in the draft, but was never a 1st round prospect however like Key was, or at least was projected to be I felt.

 

Demarcus Lawrence 6-3 251 and ran a 4.8 40 and is now a Pro bowler at DE.  Shaun Phillips ran a 4.83 40 and was a damn good pro for a very long time.    Kony Ealy ran a 4.92 at the combine and is a solid pro I feel so far and Vinny Curry ran a 4.89 and has had moments as a pass rusher.  So guys can succeed as a pass rusher without having 4.6 speed off the edge all the time.  But true all are basically 4/3 DEs, so will see if Key could become that if asked, and maybe running that poorly takes some teams out because they want faster 3/4 OLBs like a Von Miller type.  But again Suggs disproves that belief some what but most are 4.5 - 4.6 guys but not all turn out.  

 

Justin Tuck had a great JR year, not as good of a SR year, dropped in the draft but was a better athlete than Key for sure, Key had a similar drop but most was due to injury and being out of shape.  Dion Jordan similar build with a great workout but did not do so well at the next level.  

 

 

Sergio Kindle was a strong athlete, similar to Key in a way but was a better athlete and he never really turned out at all in the NFL especially as a 3/4 OLB.  

DaQuan Bowers had an insanely productive college career, especially that last year but after the surgery was not the same.  Ran a very bad 40 and really dropped in the draft and never did much in the NFL.  Worst would be Aaron Maybin had a 4.89 40, as a RS SOPH had 20 TFL and 12 sacks.  Drafted on potential and production early and was still very high in the draft, obviously never did much in the NFL at all.  Another who maybe could not transition to a 3/4 OLB with that lack of great athletic ability.  Key I think has enough mobility and short space quickness when he is in shape and ready to go.

 

Key was 9th overall against all EDGE/DL/LB at the combine in the 20 yard short shuttle.  But sure no other numbers stood out as a plus at all.  Maybe it was because LSU has Dave Aranda the supposed 3/4 OLB wizard and he potentially made all those great Wisconsin OLBs, then again those guys were just fine this past year even without Biegel, Watt or Schobert.  Really would be curious what he thought about Key and how he worked and acted.  Key sure did have a disappointing season this past year, but I would be shocked to see him fall to a UDFA.  That surgery he had, sadly it would have maybe  been better to almost sit out this year and workout, than put some of the bad game tape he put out there this year when he was not 100%.    Just did not seem like the same player this past year that is for sure compared to what he was the year before.  

 

 

https://www.seccountry.com/lsu/lsus-arden-key-finally-addresses-the-media

This is probably the worst thing about Key, that mystery which was apparently answered but only to NFL teams.  I am curious what exactly it was however.  

 

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Just now, Ozzy said:

Demarcus Lawrence

Shaun Phillips

Kony Ealy

Vinny Curry 

Justin Tuck

These are vastly different players than Key. At 240 lbs., Key needed to test well. It's similar to a 5'10" receiver running a 4.7 40 and a 7.3 second 3-cone. Testing numbers combined with player density have proven to predict NFL success, or at least risk, relatively well.

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