Iamcanadian Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 7 hours ago, Tugboat said: Yeah. These two breakdowns are pretty much what i see with Sweat too. He's actually a pretty good run defender, but it's like he's devoid of any real pass rushing instincts. He's slow off the snap, tentative, and doesn't really show off any of that gym shorts athleticism in getting to the QB. You can coach up some technique here and there, but he just doesn't seem like a guy who has the mentality and really "gets it" as a pass rusher. I almost think that for a team like the Niners, i'd be looking at him wondering if he can add some more bulk to that frame and become that heavy end on the other side, rather than as a real LEO candidate. Which isn't exactly what his combine testing would suggest, and is less of a premium spot, but that's sorta what the tape indicates to me. It is tough though, because of the injury stuff. How much of not showing out his athletic traits on tape is due to a lack of full health, and those traits maybe not being 100%, and/or not fully trusting his body? It's hard to attribute his specific weaknesses directly to health/injury, but it's hard to completely eliminate it as a factor too. The tape really doesn't line up with the athletic testing numbers though. So if you're spending the premium to buy that set of gym shorts testing numbers, you may not be getting at all what you're paying for on the field. Well, Florida St. completely self destructed last season and Jimbo Fisher moved on, so something was horribly wrong there and a lot of top recruits never looked like much last season, considering all the talent that was on hand. Maybe Sweat just got caught up in that mess and his play suffered because of it! I'd take a flyer on him in round 3/4 and see what could be done to bring out the potential in him, he could turn out to be the steal of the draft if he gets his act together! As for Key, he ran a 4.90 40 and that strongly suggests, he lacks athletic ability. Throw in his red flags and I would not touch this guy with a ten foot pole!!! At 238 lbs., a 4.90 is about as bad as it gets!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iamcanadian Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 28 minutes ago, Ozzy said: Alex McAlister is similar to Key in a lot of ways, similar height at 6-6 with a 4.8 40 time, but still a very talented player and could easily have went a little higher in the draft, but was never a 1st round prospect however like Key was, or at least was projected to be I felt. Demarcus Lawrence 6-3 251 and ran a 4.8 40 and is now a Pro bowler at DE. Shaun Phillips ran a 4.83 40 and was a damn good pro for a very long time. Kony Ealy ran a 4.92 at the combine and is a solid pro I feel so far and Vinny Curry ran a 4.89 and has had moments as a pass rusher. So guys can succeed as a pass rusher without having 4.6 speed off the edge all the time. But true all are basically 4/3 DEs, so will see if Key could become that if asked, and maybe running that poorly takes some teams out because they want faster 3/4 OLBs like a Von Miller type. But again Suggs disproves that belief some what but most are 4.5 - 4.6 guys but not all turn out. Justin Tuck had a great JR year, not as good of a SR year, dropped in the draft but was a better athlete than Key for sure, Key had a similar drop but most was due to injury and being out of shape. Dion Jordan similar build with a great workout but did not do so well at the next level. Sergio Kindle was a strong athlete, similar to Key in a way but was a better athlete and he never really turned out at all in the NFL especially as a 3/4 OLB. DaQuan Bowers had an insanely productive college career, especially that last year but after the surgery was not the same. Ran a very bad 40 and really dropped in the draft and never did much in the NFL. Worst would be Aaron Maybin had a 4.89 40, as a RS SOPH had 20 TFL and 12 sacks. Drafted on potential and production early and was still very high in the draft, obviously never did much in the NFL at all. Another who maybe could not transition to a 3/4 OLB with that lack of great athletic ability. Key I think has enough mobility and short space quickness when he is in shape and ready to go. Key was 9th overall against all EDGE/DL/LB at the combine in the 20 yard short shuttle. But sure no other numbers stood out as a plus at all. Maybe it was because LSU has Dave Aranda the supposed 3/4 OLB wizard and he potentially made all those great Wisconsin OLBs, then again those guys were just fine this past year even without Biegel, Watt or Schobert. Really would be curious what he thought about Key and how he worked and acted. Key sure did have a disappointing season this past year, but I would be shocked to see him fall to a UDFA. That surgery he had, sadly it would have maybe been better to almost sit out this year and workout, than put some of the bad game tape he put out there this year when he was not 100%. Just did not seem like the same player this past year that is for sure compared to what he was the year before. https://www.seccountry.com/lsu/lsus-arden-key-finally-addresses-the-media This is probably the worst thing about Key, that mystery which was apparently answered but only to NFL teams. I am curious what exactly it was however. Unfortunately, his pro day was worse! It is easy to list the exceptions to the rule, but for every exception you list, I can list a thousand Keys' types who were complete flops.. Teams have a standard by which they judge players, sure, if your intangibles are off the charts, you might get drafted later after all the great athletes are chosen, but your odds of making it are numerically miniscule! The rare guy gets by with heart and determination, but they are far and few between. Key no only does not seem to have great athletic ability, his has numerous off the field red flags, making his journey seem even less likely to succeed. I do not know what went wrong with him, but I am not wasting a draft pick higher than round 7 on the guy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodjahs12 Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, Iamcanadian said: Well, Florida St. completely self destructed last season and Jimbo Fisher moved on, so something was horribly wrong there and a lot of top recruits never looked like much last season, considering all the talent that was on hand. Maybe Sweat just got caught up in that mess and his play suffered because of it! I'd take a flyer on him in round 3/4 and see what could be done to bring out the potential in him, he could turn out to be the steal of the draft if he gets his act together! As for Key, he ran a 4.90 40 and that strongly suggests, he lacks athletic ability. Throw in his red flags and I would not touch this guy with a ten foot pole!!! At 238 lbs., a 4.90 is about as bad as it gets!!! Why do you feel the need to put 1-3 exclamation marks after nearly everything you say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iamcanadian Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Just now, Rodjahs12 said: Why do you feel the need to put 1-3 exclamation marks after nearly everything you say? Feels good!!!!! There I gave you 5! and one for good measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chwf3rd25 Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 8 hours ago, reamer said: Very curious about the "market share" idea. Could you shed some light on that? Any studies or articles you could link me to? I might disagree with your assessment of Lewis, but I enjoy learning new things and challenging my way of thinking. Thanks. This guy https://twitter.com/jimetrics?lang=en came up with the market share figures. He has a spreadsheet with the numbers for all the combine invites on his twitter. I'm by no means use an analytical approach to my evaluations but I like to incorporate production into my analysis somehow and the market share metric seemingly has more correlation to NFL success than just raw college production, considering the number of college teams where the production is inflated by scheme. Heres a link to his spreadsheet with the market share numbers for the combine invites: https://draftcobern.wordpress.com/2018/02/15/2018-nfl-combine-production-analytics-spreadsheet/ Again, i'll only let the production numbers affect my analysis if a player is in an extreme category but he's demonstrated a correlation between the numbers and future NFL success (measured at least in multiple pro bowls or making an All-Pro team). Still pretty interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iamcanadian Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 1 hour ago, Chwf3rd25 said: This guy https://twitter.com/jimetrics?lang=en came up with the market share figures. He has a spreadsheet with the numbers for all the combine invites on his twitter. I'm by no means use an analytical approach to my evaluations but I like to incorporate production into my analysis somehow and the market share metric seemingly has more correlation to NFL success than just raw college production, considering the number of college teams where the production is inflated by scheme. Heres a link to his spreadsheet with the market share numbers for the combine invites: https://draftcobern.wordpress.com/2018/02/15/2018-nfl-combine-production-analytics-spreadsheet/ Again, i'll only let the production numbers affect my analysis if a player is in an extreme category but he's demonstrated a correlation between the numbers and future NFL success (measured at least in multiple pro bowls or making an All-Pro team). Still pretty interesting. I cannot never use analytics in more than about 25% of how I judge a prospect. Any more than that and it becomes rather useless to me! Strengths IMO: I am assuming you are talking about Lewis, the DE for Ohio St. - 3 year starter for a major program that send players to the pros - good athlete with decent change of direction and balance - good size for a DE with long arms - Adequate speed and burst - pass rush production - strength at the point of attack - can set the edge vs the run - can pursue and is a good tackler Weaknesses IMO: - a fifth year senior - far too often, reacts extremely slowly to the snap - too often, the last guy off the snap - gets too tall and slow off blocks - weak hand use - does not make as many plays as you would hope for - there is nothing special about him - likely a rotational player at best This is what I see with Lewis, some of it is analytical and some of it just just what I have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reamer Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 13 hours ago, Chwf3rd25 said: This guy https://twitter.com/jimetrics?lang=en came up with the market share figures. He has a spreadsheet with the numbers for all the combine invites on his twitter. I'm by no means use an analytical approach to my evaluations but I like to incorporate production into my analysis somehow and the market share metric seemingly has more correlation to NFL success than just raw college production, considering the number of college teams where the production is inflated by scheme. Heres a link to his spreadsheet with the market share numbers for the combine invites: https://draftcobern.wordpress.com/2018/02/15/2018-nfl-combine-production-analytics-spreadsheet/ Again, i'll only let the production numbers affect my analysis if a player is in an extreme category but he's demonstrated a correlation between the numbers and future NFL success (measured at least in multiple pro bowls or making an All-Pro team). Still pretty interesting. I managed to track those down after I asked, actually. Good information to peruse. I am curious if he adjusts for snaps, however? Per PFF (not my favorite for grades, but raw data seems semi-reliable), Lewis notched 6 sacks, 8 hits, and 18 hurries on only 247 snaps aligned inside. That's 6th in the nation for interior pass rush productivity. As I said, I like him as a guy who can be versatile and move around in a front. I don't know that he's ever going to be a tier-1 pass rusher off the edge, but he has a lot of good qualities. Additionally, he just about meets the threshold for multiple All Pro based on Corbern's own numbers (4.34 SS and 7.11 3-cone; Lewis was 4.32 and 7.12, so I'll call that a wash). He didn't have complete Combine/pro day testing, but based on what I can find, he's actually an upper tier athlete. Thanks to the Math Bomb guy, I was able to get the RAS database working on my computer, and I created a custom score card based on numbers I could find. It may not be accurate, but looks pretty impressive: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheVillain112 Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 22 hours ago, Tugboat said: Yeah. These two breakdowns are pretty much what i see with Sweat too. He's actually a pretty good run defender, but it's like he's devoid of any real pass rushing instincts. He's slow off the snap, tentative, and doesn't really show off any of that gym shorts athleticism in getting to the QB. You can coach up some technique here and there, but he just doesn't seem like a guy who has the mentality and really "gets it" as a pass rusher. I almost think that for a team like the Niners, i'd be looking at him wondering if he can add some more bulk to that frame and become that heavy end on the other side, rather than as a real LEO candidate. Which isn't exactly what his combine testing would suggest, and is less of a premium spot, but that's sorta what the tape indicates to me. It is tough though, because of the injury stuff. How much of not showing out his athletic traits on tape is due to a lack of full health, and those traits maybe not being 100%, and/or not fully trusting his body? It's hard to attribute his specific weaknesses directly to health/injury, but it's hard to completely eliminate it as a factor too. The tape really doesn't line up with the athletic testing numbers though. So if you're spending the premium to buy that set of gym shorts testing numbers, you may not be getting at all what you're paying for on the field. Our boy @justo on Sweat: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, TheVillain112 said: Our boy @justo on Sweat: Thanks for posting this. Posted it in the 49er forum as we were having this very discussion regarding Sweat a couple of days ago since he has to be on our radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Serious question - is there any reason to think that Edmunds couldn't be a successful edge player and make the conversion? Obviously would be crazy raw at this point, but outside of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheVillain112 Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, Forge said: Thanks for posting this. Posted it in the 49er forum as we were having this very discussion regarding Sweat a couple of days ago since he has to be on our radar. Really hope Sweat ends up on a team that will just unleash him as a pass rusher. I don't think he gets out of the first round, but we'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jebrick Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Edmunds is really close to Shazier in athletic ability and nearly everything else. He has bad instincts and can over run plays because he is so fast. If he were just asked to react and go ( like a EDGE rusher) he would be very good and could grow into the position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 18 minutes ago, Forge said: Serious question - is there any reason to think that Edmunds couldn't be a successful edge player and make the conversion? Obviously would be crazy raw at this point, but outside of that. I just think he's such an athletic freak AND with such poor initial instincts, off-ball LB is how you get him to succeed relatively early. You put him at EDGE, it probably lengthens his learning curve unless you make him a pure EDGE. I don't know that it's how you maximize the return given his versatility. He's a get-after-it guy, who gets fooled on initial read a lot. Plus, he'd have to learn inside technique, handfighting, and diagnosing plays from a new position. I get the physical profile is EDGE-worthy, it's just hard when his instincts and reading abilities are the furthest behind. Add EDGE techniques that he'd be learning from scratch, and the high investment required, I can see him used as an extra rusher for sure, but EDGE as his primary role seems so unlikely. EDIT: @jebrick's Shazier comp is an even simpler answer....although I think Shazier had better instincts coming out of college than Edmunds, but this was probably his biggest weakness (and being thought of as a bit undersized). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheVillain112 Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 20 minutes ago, Broncofan said: I get the physical profile is EDGE-worthy, it's just hard when his instincts and reading abilities are the furthest behind. Add EDGE techniques that he'd be learning from scratch, and the high investment required, I can see him used as an extra rusher for sure, but EDGE as his primary role seems so unlikely. He's still learning the LB position, so learning a new position might not be that bad considering there's going to be a learning curve for him regardless. Also, I've seen guys like Ahmad Brooks who played LB in college transition well to a 3-4 OLB role. Ahmad Brooks was more successful as a pass rusher in SF than he was as a MLB in Cincy. That said I'm starting him out as an off the ball LB... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, TheVillain112 said: He's still learning the LB position, so learning a new position might not be that bad considering there's going to be a learning curve for him regardless. Also, I've seen guys like Ahmad Brooks who played LB in college transition well to a 3-4 OLB role. Ahmad Brooks was more successful as a pass rusher in SF than he was as a MLB in Cincy. That said I'm starting him out as an off the ball LB... If you are taking Edmunds, his EDGE ability and versatility have to be leveraged for sure. While he's learning, putting him at ILB and having EDGE work not only helps him learn and improve on his instincts, but also makes him easier to deploy from multiple packages. ILB is certainly the plug-and-play spot for rookies, though, I really would also be surprised if he didn't start there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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