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Green Bay Packers will have the best record in the NFL this year


VanS

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3 hours ago, Crickett said:

So, I'm not sure if anyone has noticed, but Chicago essentially went down a "what does a good offense need" checklist this past offseason.  They wanted to get younger on their offensive line, so they let Josh Sitton go and drafted James Daniels.  They had the worst receiving corps in the league last year, so they went and signed three guys and drafted a fourth who provide highly complementary skillsets.  A speedster in Gabriel, a physical possession receiver who can make the tough catches in Allen Robinson and a route running specialist in Anthony Miller.  And that's not taking into considering the TE's they have now.  I didn't like the Adam Shaheen selection one bit last year, but after signing Trey Burton, the Bears reliance on Shaheen's development has essentially evaporated. 

The only weaknesses I still see there are at right tackle, a big issue at edge rusher and a Los Angeles Chargers like preponderance of injuries year after year. 

All of this depends on how good you think Trubisky is.  Could Nagy be another Sean McVay that can take a player who struggled in Year 1 (like Jared Goff) look much better in Year 2 by upgrading the talent around him and scheming plays the right way?  Its possible though I wouldn't bet on it.  Turnarounds like we saw last year with the Rams are rare.  To believe the Bears become a much better team in 2018 than they were in 2017, you have to think Trubisky is gonna be a really good QB in this league.  I don't.  But then again, if you said this about Jared Goff and the Rams last year, I would have said no way they turn things around and that was ultimately proven be wrong.

So we'll see it lightning can strike twice.  I'm basically betting that we don't see a McVay/Goff-esque turnaround for a second year in a row considering that doesn't typically happen every year. 

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Im obviously biased.....

FWIW... two of the three toughest games in most people's eyes @Rams and @Vikings (@Patriots the other) come after a bye week and a Thursday night game I think. Usually those games favor the team with the extra rest. 

I feel like the Packers are an 11 or 12 win team if they (mostly AR12) stay healthy. I'm also very much of the belief that teams are ~ +/- 3 games based on luck because football is a game of inches and bounces.

They were 12-2 in the last 14 games with Rodgers healthy I think. Only losing to the Falcons on the road. 

14-2 isn't likely but absolutely possible. 

A healthy GB squad is very capable of being the #1 seed in the NFC. 

 

 

 

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GB just lost its most reliable receiver in the Rodgers era but age did catch up to him.  However GB did bring in some guys including Graham.  Also don't forget that Montgomery will also be used as a gadget on that offense somewhere.  Also the defense finally got more attention than recent years.

Even when Rodgers isn't healthy, GB still puts up more wins than some of the perennial bottom teams in the NFL.

14-2 is a tall order in this competitive NFC but a #1 seed isn't far fetched.  GB gets the AFC East and they're always dominant at home.

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On 6/20/2018 at 10:46 PM, VanS said:

 I personally love what they did this off-season.  First, they hit it big in free agency with 2 outstanding signings.  Everyone knows Jimmy Graham and Muhammad Wilkerson are both really good players.  I also loved the signing of Marcedes Lewis who is a very underrated TE.

Jimmy Graham is a has-been that looks like he's in the Matrix when running routes. He'll only be effective is red zone plays.

The only thing Marcedes Lewis has going for him is his blocking ability; he isn't going to contribute much in the passing game.

I will agree that the Wilkerson signing was a very good one; I love those one-year prove it deals for talented, but lazy players like Mo-Wil who look for big paychecks.

 

On 6/20/2018 at 10:46 PM, VanS said:

Next, when it came to the draft, I thought they hit it out of the park.  I love the selection of Jaire Alexander in the 1st round.  He just looks like a shut down corner. 

Woah woah, that's some REALLY faulty logic there. Just because he "looks like a shut down corner" means nothing. Vernon Gholston looked like the next Lawrence Taylor.

 

On 6/20/2018 at 10:46 PM, VanS said:

I also love their picks of J'Mon Moore and Equanimeous St. Brown.  I had both receivers rated much higher than where they got selected.  I believe both can make a huge impact this season. 

No one cares how you've rated them. GB is pretty crowded at WR right now and so far they have Cobb/Adams/Allison on top of the depth chart. Perhaps one of those two could jump Allison, but I don't think that alone would be much of a reason GB ends up #1 in the NFC.

 

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On 6/23/2018 at 1:17 AM, VanS said:

Their off-season IMO was just okay.  They signed a number of average free agents.  And in the draft they were hit and miss.  I didn't like the selection of Roquan Smith in the 1st round.  He was one of the players I thought was significantly overrated in this draft process.  However, I did love the pick of Anthony Miller.  He was my #2 WR prospect in this class after Antonio Callaway.

I guess the main reason I'm not that high on the Bears is because I don't believe Trubisky will be an elite or close to elite QB.  I see him more in the Mariota/Winston range.  Average to Above Average starting QB in the NFL.  And in a good year with really good talent around maybe he can lead his team to the playoffs.  However, I don't see a franchise caliber guy that I would be willing to bet on moving forward to being a guy that lead his team to the playoffs perennially. 

Well...even if you don't think much of picks like Smith, or Daniels, other folks clearly don't share that opinion, which may be a big part of where your disconnect comes from. Similar sort of deal with free agents like Robinson and Burton.

But, of course, it remains to be seen. Do keep in mind that the team's plan last year was to rely on Glennon for the entire season (or close to that), and when that fell through, the coaching staff just imploded...

 

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Rodgers healthy can will whatever flavor of mess happens this year to the rest of the team to 12 wins, he always can

Will be interesting to see if the offensive staff is going to start helping him with a better system

 

Big ifs are how big of a jump the Lions and Bears take, and if Kirk can leave his shortcomings in Washington or not. 

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13 hours ago, PFM18 said:

It must be true. 

The all-seeing Tony Romo has called it. 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000938573/article/tony-romo-green-bay-packers-are-team-to-beat-in-18

He throws a few caveats in there but to be honest any team with a healthy A-Rod always has a chance to win it all. 

Tony Romo is a very smart man.  And honestly their roster is pretty good outside of Rodgers.  I personally like the young RBs and WRs they've drafted the last 2 years.  Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones is a really good duo.  I loved the selections of Equanimeous St. Brown and J'Mon Moore.  Davante Adams is already a star.  And Jimmy Graham has been a star.  That's a pretty loaded offense.  And on defense, I love the pickup of Muhammad Wilkerson.  Add him to the rest of the line with Mike Daniels and Kenny Clark and you have one of the best defensive lines in football.  Clay Matthews is still a playmaker at LB.  And the secondary will be improved with the addition of Jaire Alexander (who was one of my favorite players in the draft).

This team has a chance to be the best in the NFL next year.

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For what its worth, i had the packers as the top seed in the nfc when i picked every game.  But its a tough division and a loaded conference.  Its certainly not inconceivable that their will be teams with winning records who dont make the playoffs this year.  

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I doubt they are even the best team in their division this year (Vikings). I really don't see what is so special about the Packers roster. Sure they have a great QB in Rodgers, but outside of that I just don't buy the hype with teams like the Saints, Vikings, Rams, Eagles, etc. in the NFC. 

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16 hours ago, tyler735 said:

I doubt they are even the best team in their division this year (Vikings). I really don't see what is so special about the Packers roster. Sure they have a great QB in Rodgers, but outside of that I just don't buy the hype with teams like the Saints, Vikings, Rams, Eagles, etc. in the NFC. 

Just think back to this time last year.  Remember the teams getting the most hype?  Dallas Cowboys?  Oakland Raiders?  New York Giants?  What happened to them?  That's right they all missed the playoffs.  I know that as humans we have a hard time forgetting what we saw last.  However, I wish people would just look at historical precedent and realize that every season is new.  You can't try and bring in what happened last year thinking it has any bearing on this season.  This is the NFL.  We see crazy turnover every year. 

Just think, at this time last year, nobody thought the Rams were much of anything.  Then they go out in 2017 and have the Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year.  Now many are saying they have arguably the most talented roster in the NFL.

Half the teams you listed as being the elite teams of the NFC are likely to not even make the playoffs this year if we look at historical precedent.  We know every year that teams who everyone thought would be contenders fail while teams nobody gave a chance to become contenders.  Look no further than the reigning Super Bowl champs.  They went from not even being in the playoffs in 2016 to Super Bowl champs the following year.  

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