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Vikings extend Danielle Hunter

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Posted (edited)
On 6/29/2018 at 12:27 PM, Krauser said:

Fair enough, but he was used in 3 different roles.

2015: played as the X in Norv's offense (with Teddy), saw a lot of press coverage from CB1s (got shut down against Sherman and Peterson for one thing). Hardly played in the slot (15% of his routes from the slot that year, Jennings was the main slot WR and flanker). Yards per catch 13.8, catch percentage 61.9%. 

2016: mainly a slot/possession receiver for the dink-and-dunk Bradford-behind-terrible-OL offense (routes from slot 63%). Yards per catch dropped to 10.8, catch percentage jumped to 75%.

2017: mostly played as the Z and used as the main deep threat in Shurmur's offense (with Keenum), stayed outside in most 3WR situations (24% routes from slot, compare to Thielen 51%). Yards per catch back up to 13.3, catch percentage 67.4%.

2018: minicamp, they're still using Treadwell (at X) in 3WR sets, which means Thielen is the main slot, which means Diggs will probably be staying in the same role as last year. Kendall Wright has replaced Jarius Wright as the WR4, mainly a slot/flanker player, but it looks like they want to keep using Thielen where he was so successful in 2017, and give Treadwell one more chance to improve. 

He's very versatile, but he's not close to a top 10-15 player at receiver right now. His career high season is 900 yards. Yes he shared targets with Thielen and he's talented, but that's stretching it for sure. Granted, that doesn't mean he should be lowballed in contract negotiations, as he's a key piece for the Vikings and young, but again top 10-15 receiver... not seeing it.

Edited by MrOaktown_56

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

he's not close to a top 10-15 player at receiver right now. His career high season is 900 yards. 

Diggs stats have been limited because he was a healthy scratch for the first 3 games of his rookie career (buried on the depth chart as a 5the rounder), then missed 3 games for injury in 2016 and 2 in 2017. He’s also played in a conservative run first offense, usually working with a lead, and his QBs have been no better than OK.  

Even with those caveats, Diggs did play 16 games last year including the 2 in the playoffs. Combining his regular season and playoff performances as a full season:

  • 117 targets (equivalent 2017 regular season rank for WRs: 15th)

  • 78 receptions (16th)

  • 1056 yards (11th)

  • 9 TDs (4th)

  • +11.5 PFF (10th)

  • 2.00 YPRR (11th)

  • 116.7 WR rating (5th)

  • 295 DYAR (9th)

  • 24.7% DVOA (5th)

That’s a very good though not elite performance, should put him in the discussion as a top 10-15 WR, considering the quality of his play (he’s already got the reputation as one of the best route runners in the league and one of the best at making contested catches) more than his bulk counting stats like total receiving yards. NFL 100 put him as the 11th WR this year (65th overall) so it’s not like I’m the only one who thinks he’s roughly that good.

Edited by Krauser

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I feel like every thread that pertains to the Vikings but not specifically about Stefon Diggs ends up as a discussion about Stefon Diggs. 

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Posted (edited)
16 hours ago, Krauser said:

Diggs stats have been limited because he was a healthy scratch for the first 3 games of his rookie career (buried on the depth chart as a 5the rounder), then missed 3 games for injury in 2016 and 2 in 2017. He’s also played in a conservative run first offense, usually working with a lead, and his QBs have been no better than OK.  

Even with those caveats, Diggs did play 16 games last year including the 2 in the playoffs. Combining his regular season and playoff performances as a full season:

  • 117 targets (equivalent 2017 regular season rank for WRs: 15th)

  • 78 receptions (16th)

  • 1056 yards (11th)

  • 9 TDs (4th)

  • +11.5 PFF (10th)

  • 2.00 YPRR (11th)

  • 116.7 WR rating (5th)

  • 295 DYAR (9th)

  • 24.7% DVOA (5th)

That’s a very good though not elite performance, should put him in the discussion as a top 10-15 WR, considering the quality of his play (he’s already got the reputation as one of the best route runners in the league and one of the best at making contested catches) more than his bulk counting stats like total receiving yards. NFL 100 put him as the 11th WR this year (65th overall) so it’s not like I’m the only one who thinks he’s roughly that good.

1

Wide receivers I would take over Diggs today, in no particular order (minimum):

In terms of talent:

Antonio Brown

Julio Jones

AJ Green

Odell Beckham Jr

Michael Thomas

Keenan Allen

Mike Evans

Tyreek Hill

Larry Fitzgerald

Alshon Jeffery

Brandin Cooks

Adam Thielen

Demaryius Thomas

Emmanuel Sanders

TY Hilton

Receivers who have statistically outproduced Diggs over the last 3 years and/or have a talent argument:

Jarvis Landry

Amari Cooper

Golden Tate

Michael Crabtree

Marvin Jones

If we are going on pure ability, throw Josh Gordon in there as well.

I listed out 21 guys, at least 15 of which have very solid cases over Diggs. Even if we include his postseason, which again most of the receivers on the list didn't play in, one season of good production doesn't make you a top 10-15 receiver. Michael Crabtree has a similar yardage total to Diggs and 25 touchdowns in the last 3 years. Is Crabtree arguably a top 10-15 receiver?

Pump the brakes on Diggs until he does enough to put himself in a conversation with guys who have had multiple outstanding seasons, many of whom with shaky/mediocre qb play.

Also please don't use the NFL top 100. It's a joke. Amari Cooper was 53rd on the top 100 last year and has more yards and touchdowns than Diggs going against number one cornerbacks. Is he a top 10-15 receiver?

But I don't want to have another one of these arguments in the offseason. Diggs is a good player. I'm not as high on him as you are. Carry on.

 

 

 

Edited by MrOaktown_56

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Posted (edited)

I said he was "arguably a top 10-15" WR. And it is a reasonable argument to make, even if you disagree.

It's not only my opinion. Several film evaluators have ranked him that high -- he's not only a top 10 WR for PFF, he was the 7th highest rated outside WR in the NFL 1000 project: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2752678-nfl1000-ranking-the-top-outside-wide-receivers-of-2017-season#slide24 . 

Obviously the NFL 100 poll isn't a systematic evaluation but it does give a sense of a player's reputation around the league. 

Of course Cooper would've had a good argument to be in the top 10-15 WRs as of last year, with back-to-back 1000 yard seasons at the age of 22. He probably still is in the discussion, though I gather he had a lot of trouble with drops last year and a bit of a weirdly bad season so I guess most people would consider Diggs at least comparable overall, maybe even ahead of him. 

For the rest of your list, I think most of those guys could be in the discussion for the top 10-15 WRs in the league, though I think a few of them aren't really on that level (Crabtree for one, with his TE-like 6.5 yards per target last year), and I wouldn't be giving Josh Gordon credit for potential at this point. I think you've left off some names that I'd include, particularly Davante Adams and Pierre Garcon. So we could combine our lists, come up with about 20 names, and argue over who among them makes the top 10, or falls outside the top 15. 

As far as Diggs is concerned, the point is just that it's reasonable for him to get an extension for a comparable amount to Adams ($14-15M). Compared to the cap at the time of the first year of the deal, that would pay Diggs around 8% of the cap in 2019, which would represent roughly a top 12-15 WR contract.

That amount would be less (cap-adjusted) than the WRs who by consensus were better than Diggs has been at the time they signed (Brown, Jones, Green, Evans, Hopkins, OBJ once he signs, Fitzgerald, Demaryius Thomas). It'll be more than WRs with comparable talents whose deals were limited by various factors (Thielen signed as a RFA, Tate and Baldwin are primary slot WRs, Keenan Allen was coming off injury, Pierre Garcon was already 30) or who are still on rookie deals (Michael Thomas, Cooks, Hill). It'll be comparable (cap-adjusted) to comparably talented and accomplished WRs of a similar age (Landry, Adams, Hilton, Jeffery, Watkins).

I think that'd be a fair contract for Diggs, and if I'm the Vikings, I'm making that offer this summer, before he gets a chance to play with Cousins, and hopefully avoid the muscle strain injuries that limited him at points the last couple of years. If Diggs puts up 1200+ yards and establishes himself as a bona fide star, he'll end up costing them even more. 

 

Edited by Krauser

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All fair points. Agreed. Cheers Krauser, I wish arguments/discussions on this site were more civil like this.

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