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AlexGreen#20

Thoughts on the Offseason

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On 6/30/2018 at 6:29 AM, AlexGreen#20 said:

When you add in the draft picks spent on Long Snapper Hunter Bradley and Punter JK Scott, it paints a picture that developing the Special Teams units is going to be a priority. 

Oren Burks and JP Scott are the two draft picks in this class that I didn’t like the value.

In the case of Scott it has nothing to do with the player, I think he’s going to be a great punter. I just don’t know if banking on him as the long term answer at the expense of Justin Vogel, who performed adequately if unspectacularly, was worth a fifth round gamble. On the flip side of the argument, it was the 172nd pick in the draft. There aren’t high expectations for anybody drafted in that spot.

 

First off, what an awesome offseason review ! Really top shelf effort, thanks for doing it and for making my flight go faster

If we only consider the punting component of Scott, its a little harder to justify the investment over keeping Vogel - but I think the Big Picture looks a little different. Scott excels at hang time and that's one way to limit returns, even if you give up some distance in doing it that way. The loss of Janis as the gunner means the value of a punter with huge hang time goes up.

Second, Scott is listed as an experienced holder and he's got quite a catch radius in case of errant snaps. But the area where the draft pick really makes some sense is that he's a kick- off candidate as well. IF Scott can boom kickoffs - that might extend the career of Crosby's right leg - especially late in the season in GB when the ball is harder and the winds are more prevalent. I think his ability to be more than just a talented punter is what made him draft-worthy in GB's eyes

MM wants the Specials to be as "good" as the offense/defense and they're doing more than paying it lip service by expending draft picks on these guys

 

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With regards to Jordy - The Packers didn't want him back....and there's no easy or proven method to handle that. Make no offer, the fans howl. Make a substandard offer, the fans howl. Release him in March so he has a chance to catch on elsewhere and fans howl that there was no immediate need to make that move. Release him in August and the fans howl about "how can you treat him so poorly like that ? !"

Its a no-win scenario for Gute and all of the GMs.

But Lombardi shined some light on it way back in the 60s

https://www.packers.com/news/lombardi-getting-rid-of-players-key-to-sustained-success-20431715

Over the 85 seasons since postseason play was instituted in 1933, no other coach has won three straight NFL titles. No other coach has won five NFL titles in a seven-year span or even over the course of a decade. No other coach has matched his .766 winning percentage for both regular-season and postseason games.

Lombardi won more NFL championships in 10 years, including his final season in Washington, than Don Shula won in 33, Tom Landry in 29 and Chuck Noll in 23. Bill Belichick matched Lombardi’s five titles in 2016, but it took him 22 years.

Lombardi said there were three keys to staying on top and two of them were psychological. One was to guard against your players becoming complacent and developing inflated egos. The other was to prepare your team in advance for every defending champion’s inevitable burden: That each one of your opponents will be pointing to you as the biggest game on their schedule.

Lombardi’s third key touched on personnel. Here’s what he said.

“There is a tendency to stay with the players that won the championship – even if he isn’t as good as he was. And it’s the very human thing to do. However, there is no room for that type of emotion. Football is a hardheaded cold business.

“No matter what a player did last year, he must go if he can’t do it this year.”

 

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1 hour ago, Shanedorf said:

With regards to Jordy - The Packers didn't want him back....and there's no easy or proven method to handle that. Make no offer, the fans howl. Make a substandard offer, the fans howl. Release him in March so he has a chance to catch on elsewhere and fans howl that there was no immediate need to make that move. Release him in August and the fans howl about "how can you treat him so poorly like that ? !"

Its a no-win scenario for Gute and all of the GMs.

But Lombardi shined some light on it way back in the 60s

https://www.packers.com/news/lombardi-getting-rid-of-players-key-to-sustained-success-20431715

 

Over the 85 seasons since postseason play was instituted in 1933, no other coach has won three straight NFL titles. No other coach has won five NFL titles in a seven-year span or even over the course of a decade. No other coach has matched his .766 winning percentage for both regular-season and postseason games.

Lombardi won more NFL championships in 10 years, including his final season in Washington, than Don Shula won in 33, Tom Landry in 29 and Chuck Noll in 23. Bill Belichick matched Lombardi’s five titles in 2016, but it took him 22 years.

 

Lombardi said there were three keys to staying on top and two of them were psychological. One was to guard against your players becoming complacent and developing inflated egos. The other was to prepare your team in advance for every defending champion’s inevitable burden: That each one of your opponents will be pointing to you as the biggest game on their schedule.

 

Lombardi’s third key touched on personnel. Here’s what he said.

 

“There is a tendency to stay with the players that won the championship – even if he isn’t as good as he was. And it’s the very human thing to do. However, there is no room for that type of emotion. Football is a hardheaded cold business.

 

“No matter what a player did last year, he must go if he can’t do it this year.”

 

Disagree that Jordy can't do it anymore relative to the current options competing for that spot.

Also disagree that the concept of holding players too long due to an emotional connection applies here. Maybe if you apply it exclusively to holding onto him at his scheduled numbers, but this release was tied to being kind to Jordy, BECAUSE it leads to fostering a positive reputation for the team among other players and agents.

If you preface the kind release with an insulting pay cut option, you don't even get that benefit.

The Jordy release was handled poorly no matter how you evaluate it.

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My next question is, are we sure that Jordy didn't have any kind of trade value?

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5 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

The Jordy release was handled poorly no matter how you evaluate it.

I have not seen one GM who has this end-of-career scenario figured out. So I'd take your statement above and say that fans will call it " poorly handled"  no matter what you do. Look what happened in Dallas with Dez - with both sides still sniping at each other in public ...

When your film review tells you that the guy can't get it done in December-February anymore, what do you do ?

What is the preferred method for releasing a beloved player that you no longer want on your team ?

Packers made no offer to Peppers - the fans howled. The Packers made a low ball offer to Jordy - the fans howled. So we know that both of those methods are considered " mishandling" the situation by the never-wrong fan base. That's the very definition of a no- win situation

Nobody was going to trade for THAT contract- which is why Jordy had multiple suitors once the release happened. But no takers before. It also lets Jordy pick his new home instead of having the Packers decide that for him via a trade. They did everything in their power to help the guy out, but the fans are still pissed.

The single biggest issue here is that the Packers film review came to one conclusion and the fans film review came to another. How it goes down is just a small part of the overall equation and I've not heard nor seen any GM or front office with the magic strategy to "properly" handle the transition once the football decision was made.

I think the fans handled it poorly, but that's just my opinion.

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46 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

My next question is, are we sure that Jordy didn't have any kind of trade value?

Proven WR with polished routes? The guy that fetched 7 mil a year two days after being released? Yeah he had trade value, even if it was minimal. 

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1 hour ago, Shanedorf said:

I have not seen one GM who has this end-of-career scenario figured out. So I'd take your statement above and say that fans will call it " poorly handled"  no matter what you do. Look what happened in Dallas with Dez - with both sides still sniping at each other in public ...

When your film review tells you that the guy can't get it done in December-February anymore, what do you do ?

What is the preferred method for releasing a beloved player that you no longer want on your team ?

Packers made no offer to Peppers - the fans howled. The Packers made a low ball offer to Jordy - the fans howled. So we know that both of those methods are considered " mishandling" the situation by the never-wrong fan base. That's the very definition of a no- win situation

Nobody was going to trade for THAT contract- which is why Jordy had multiple suitors once the release happened. But no takers before. It also lets Jordy pick his new home instead of having the Packers decide that for him via a trade. They did everything in their power to help the guy out, but the fans are still pissed.

The single biggest issue here is that the Packers film review came to one conclusion and the fans film review came to another. How it goes down is just a small part of the overall equation and I've not heard nor seen any GM or front office with the magic strategy to "properly" handle the transition once the football decision was made.

I think the fans handled it poorly, but that's just my opinion.

The preferred method of dealing with the end of the career scenario is to be ice cold, say "**** the player", and do what's best for the team. In the case of Jordy that means doing exactly what you did with Sitton, taking it right up to camp and then making your call.

Let business be business. Nobody got on the Packers for doing it with Sitton.

If you're making the decision he needs to be gone for some reason, at least see if you can't trade him. 

+++

How is Jordy on a 1/7.5 contract, which is about what you would be paying if you traded for him significantly different than the 2/15 he is currently on? The Packers eat the bonus whether we trade him or cut him.

You couldn't have gotten a 6th round pick on the condition that Jordy makes the Pro Bowl? 

 

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32 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Nobody got on the Packers for doing it with Sitton.

 

Packer fans here at FF certainly got on the Packers/TT over Sitton's release - if I had to guess it went a dozen pages deep with people pissing on the front office for being so dumb and shortsighted and they shoulda traded him and Lane Taylor sucks etc.

As I noted above, if the Packers trade Nelson, then they are deciding his future for him - over a measly late round pick. The bro thing to do was to let him choose a team with no strings or contract attached. And that's what they did. They also did it in March instead of June or July - again, the bro thing to do for Jordy. Jordy chose to work with a known quantity in Oakland, teaming with Edgar Bennett as his WR coach. I wish him well and I hope the warmer weather is easier on his body than the Frozen Tundra.

Had the Packers been successful in their confirmed pursuits of Allen Robinson or Jordan Matthews - would that have changed Jordy's future in GB ?

I don't think so.

It's just more evidence that the Packers were moving on from Nelson for football reasons, not money reasons. But how do you move on from a beloved player for football reasons without trashing him and soiling his chances elsewhere ? That's a heck of a tap dance !

And we saw how it went down when the cowboys threw shade at Dez to justify his release.  The Packers front office are better than that and they deserve kudo's instead of slings & arrows for how they handled a really difficult situation. Certainly not perfect, but still better than other teams in a similar situation

 

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16 hours ago, Shanedorf said:

First off, what an awesome offseason review ! Really top shelf effort, thanks for doing it and for making my flight go faster

If we only consider the punting component of Scott, its a little harder to justify the investment over keeping Vogel - but I think the Big Picture looks a little different. Scott excels at hang time and that's one way to limit returns, even if you give up some distance in doing it that way. The loss of Janis as the gunner means the value of a punter with huge hang time goes up.

Second, Scott is listed as an experienced holder and he's got quite a catch radius in case of errant snaps. But the area where the draft pick really makes some sense is that he's a kick- off candidate as well. IF Scott can boom kickoffs - that might extend the career of Crosby's right leg - especially late in the season in GB when the ball is harder and the winds are more prevalent. I think his ability to be more than just a talented punter is what made him draft-worthy in GB's eyes

MM wants the Specials to be as "good" as the offense/defense and they're doing more than paying it lip service by expending draft picks on these guys

The reason why fans are there, because there's only a limited amount of upside.  I mean, nobody cares about your punter or LS until they screw up.  Nobody cares about Mason Crosby until he went through that funk and missed a few FGs.  If they get a decade of good play, that's a HUGE success.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Shanedorf said:

Packer fans here at FF certainly got on the Packers/TT over Sitton's release - if I had to guess it went a dozen pages deep with people pissing on the front office for being so dumb and shortsighted and they shoulda traded him and Lane Taylor sucks etc.

As I noted above, if the Packers trade Nelson, then they are deciding his future for him - over a measly late round pick. The bro thing to do was to let him choose a team with no strings or contract attached. And that's what they did. They also did it in March instead of June or July - again, the bro thing to do for Jordy. Jordy chose to work with a known quantity in Oakland, teaming with Edgar Bennett as his WR coach. I wish him well and I hope the warmer weather is easier on his body than the Frozen Tundra.

Had the Packers been successful in their confirmed pursuits of Allen Robinson or Jordan Matthews - would that have changed Jordy's future in GB ?

I don't think so.

It's just more evidence that the Packers were moving on from Nelson for football reasons, not money reasons. But how do you move on from a beloved player for football reasons without trashing him and soiling his chances elsewhere ? That's a heck of a tap dance !

And we saw how it went down when the cowboys threw shade at Dez to justify his release.  The Packers front office are better than that and they deserve kudo's instead of slings & arrows for how they handled a really difficult situation. Certainly not perfect, but still better than other teams in a similar situation

 

People got on the Sitton move for the decision to get rid of him. That's a football decision that fans and management are always going to clash on. Nobody got on the Packers for how it was executed. 

The issue with the Jordy move was how it was executed. If the Packers had handled their business without trying to help out their man, they're in a better (or the same) situation than they are now. 

They either:

1. Have Nelson on their roster on August 15th knowing what their full roster is and what the potential value to the team is based on who the replacements might be. 

2. Have a chance to trade Nelson because we aren't thinking about giving him the opportunity to go where he wants. You can subtly check if he has value around the league. 

3. Have more leverage in negotiation because teams will have spent their cap and Nelson wants to play this year and make that cash.

And if all those avenues fail, you cut Nelson and find yourself in the same damn exact spot you're in now.

You don't conduct yourself like the Cowboys, you talk about what a great player and person Jordy is and has been for this organization. You talk about how you're sad to see him go and wish him the best in his next opportunity.

Don't be freaking naive. There's no such thing as a football move that isn't a money move. They're the same.

Edited by AlexGreen#20

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1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

The reason why fans are there, because there's only a limited amount of upside.  I mean, nobody cares about your punter or LS until they screw up.  Nobody cares about Mason Crosby until he went through that funk and missed a few FGs.  If they get a decade of good play, that's a HUGE success.

Blank+_066fb3ee131beb9aed6088300e75b326.

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4 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

People got on the Sitton move for the decision to get rid of him. That's a football decision that fans and management are always going to clash on. Nobody got on the Packers for how it was executed. 

The issue with the Jordy move was how it was executed. If the Packers had handled their business without trying to help out their man, they're in a better (or the same) situation than they are now. 

They either:

1. Have Nelson on their roster on August 15th knowing what their full roster is and what the potential value to the team is based on who the replacements might be. 

2. Have a chance to trade Nelson because we aren't thinking about giving him the opportunity to go where he wants. You can subtly check if he has value around the league. 

3. Have more leverage in negotiation because teams will have spent their cap and Nelson wants to play this year and make that cash.

And if all those avenues fail, you cut Nelson and find yourself in the same damn exact spot you're in now.

You don't conduct yourself like the Cowboys, you talk about what a great player and person Jordy is and has been for this organization. You talk about how you're sad to see him go and wish him the best in his next opportunity.

Why are so many people against this? It just seems like common sense to me and you and I have said this all along and it's like we're lunatics for it or something lol

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

 

12 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

People got on the Sitton move for the decision to get rid of him. That's a football decision that fans and management are always going to clash on. Nobody got on the Packers for how it was executed. 

The issue with the Jordy move was how it was executed. If the Packers had handled their business without trying to help out their man, they're in a better (or the same) situation than they are now. 

They either:

1. Have Nelson on their roster on August 15th knowing what their full roster is and what the potential value to the team is based on who the replacements might be. 

2. Have a chance to trade Nelson because we aren't thinking about giving him the opportunity to go where he wants. You can subtly check if he has value around the league. 

3. Have more leverage in negotiation because teams will have spent their cap and Nelson wants to play this year and make that cash.

And if all those avenues fail, you cut Nelson and find yourself in the same damn exact spot you're in now.

You don't conduct yourself like the Cowboys, you talk about what a great player and person Jordy is and has been for this organization. You talk about how you're sad to see him go and wish him the best in his next opportunity.

The situations with Nelson and Sitton were very different. The front office still had a high opinion of Sitton as a player when they let him go. He just became so discontented during training camp that they didn't think they could keep him around anymore. But they seem to think that Nelson had lost his mojo, so apparently they didn't even want him taking snaps in training camp that would be better spent on younger players who have a future. The Raiders don't see Nelson that way at all, which makes things interesting. I tend to agree with the Packer front office on this one. 

Edited by Greg C.
quoted twice

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http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=580873

Plenty of people were bitching at the GB front office for how that was executed.

@AlexGreen#20 how do you know that GB did not inquire about trading Nelson?

Once teams know you are looking to move a player....before he would be cut, his trade value is minimal.  Why would a team give up a pick AND take on Nelson base 2018 salary.  Why not just wait for GB to cut him.

56 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Have Nelson on their roster on August 15th knowing what their full roster is and what the potential value to the team is based on who the replacements might be. 

Keeping Nelson's cap hit on the books through TC limits your options in pursuing other FA.  Why hamstring your own ability to go after other player by keeping a player you are likely cutting anyway.

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49 minutes ago, Greg C. said:

The situations with Nelson and Sitton were very different. The front office still had a high opinion of Sitton as a player when they let him go. He just became so discontented during training camp that they didn't think they could keep him around anymore. But they seem to think that Nelson had lost his mojo, so apparently they didn't even want him taking snaps in training camp that would be better spent on younger players who have a future. The Raiders don't see Nelson that way at all, which makes things interesting. I tend to agree with the Packer front office on this one. 

Haven't seen the rookies play a damn snap yet even in camp and you're making that call. Hard to get behind it.

The Packers thought they were going to need that cap space to hit big on a free agent and missed. That's the logical explanation.

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