Thoughts on the Offseason

[AlexGreen#20]

56 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

Well I am naive. I've never been an NFL agent, nor have I worked in personnel for an NFL team. On top of that I've never met Gute, let alone have a direct line of communication with him. Or to Jordy. Or to his agent. I am naive to the actual facts of this transaction; I can only go on what's reported- and that's often biased,  info. Especially in the case of the Packers front office who are very tight- lipped

I come at this from the point of view that the Packers decided they didn't want Jordy going forward - and then the next decision is how to handle that

The Packers under Brandt, then TT &  Ball were very well regarded around the NFL for crafting fair and reasonable contracts. The agents often commented that the Packers were well-prepared and talented negotiators. I suspect that continues under Gute/Ball. These guys know what they are doing.

Given that, its a fair guess that they were aware of Jordy's value and so was Jordy's agent. Yet the Packers low-balled the number. Why ?

Were they interested in sticking it to Jordy ? Unlikely. Were they unaware of his value around the league and comparable deals for WRs ? Again unlikely

Did they want to eff with Rodgers ? Also unlikely. So given all of that, one could surmise that the Packers made the offer they did knowing he wouldn't take it. They made him an offer he couldn't possibly accept.

Which was in line with their football decision that Jordy can't do it for 20 more games/ season. Your premise is based on the assumption that he can.

If we come at it from your point of view - that the Packers really wanted Jordy back- then you have to go through all kinds of flips and twists and bungling to explain how it all went down. You noted that the Packers didn't have to move Jordy in March, they could have waited ( and paid bonuses) until May or August.

IF the Packers actually wanted Nelson in 2018, he'd still be a Packer ! It would have been a simple negotiation completed in a couple of hours. The Packers had the money, the player wanted to be here....easy-peasy stuff.

So why did they move him in March ? Because they had already decided to move on and there was simply no value in waiting.

The Packers didn't get torched, there is no negative impact from their moves. Jordy is gone, the cap space was realized and both parties move on.

Reading the tea leaves is all I can do as a naive fan on a message board - but it appears to me they had no interest in his services for 2018 and beyond. And when you look at it in that light, the Packers didn't "handle it poorly" or "weave in and out of traffic"

They were 100% consistent with their football assessments and offseason plans.

Occam's Razor in action: no bungling, no weaving, no imaginary FA they were chasing, no brainfart offer that was completely out of line with reality.

I guess I just don't see how this team sits in that room and concludes this is a better football team with Geronimo Allison talking those reps. Just doesn't add up.

As for their being no negative impact, what are we doing if Davante Adams tears his ACL playing basketball tomorrow? You wouldn't rather have Nelson on the roster? We've established there was no reason to cut him. What's the upside? 

We tried to do right by the guy. That's the simplest explanation.

[VegasDan]

22 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

I guess I just don't see how this team sits in that room and concludes this is a better football team with Geronimo Allison talking those reps. Just doesn't add up.

As for their being no negative impact, what are we doing if Davante Adams tears his ACL playing basketball tomorrow? You wouldn't rather have Nelson on the roster? We've established there was no reason to cut him. What's the upside? 

We tried to do right by the guy. That's the simplest explanation.

Pro Jordy: he has chemistry with Rodgers; lots of experience

 

Negative Jordy: skills dropped off; probably will decline even more this year; very expensive.

 

I get it. I dont like it, but I understand why they are better off. As far as injury, goes, Jordy is more likely to get injured and it's tough to weigh what the level of risk is.

[AlexGreen#20]

1 hour ago, VegasDan said:

Pro Jordy: he has chemistry with Rodgers; lots of experience

 

Negative Jordy: skills dropped off; probably will decline even more this year; very expensive.

 

I get it. I dont like it, but I understand why they are better off. As far as injury, goes, Jordy is more likely to get injured and it's tough to weigh what the level of risk is.

How are they better off with Jordy not on this team right now?

Unless you're going to make some kind of argument that Jordy Nelson is  a locker room cancer, and therefore it's better to have the unused cap space?

We've got 11 million dollars sitting unused right now and Geronimo Allison as a starting receiver. 

 

[{Family Ghost}]

54 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

How are they better off with Jordy not on this team right now?

Unless you're going to make some kind of argument that Jordy Nelson is  a locker room cancer, and therefore it's better to have the unused cap space?

We've got 11 million dollars sitting unused right now and Geronimo Allison as a starting receiver. 

 

Hopefully the loss is augmented by an increase in targets for Adams and Graham.  Removing Jordy should lead to a targets uptick for Adams .. who appears to be on the rise .. while Nelson seemed to be on the decline.  Even though Allison is a starter he will probably be #4 in the pecking order when it comes to targets.  

[packfanfb]

5 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

No, you can make your offer to Fuller and figure out your cap later. If you get Fuller, you then figure out what you're doing with cutting Nelson, not signing Tramons, etc. To make it work. These are two separate issues.

Also if we cut Nelson to make a claim on a transition tag in which we then threw out a softball offer that the Bears matched immediately, that is SO MUCH WORSE than just cutting Jordy purely out of a sense of loyalty.

The Jordy argument is pretty clear cut. Outside of pure loyalty, it's a dumb move in March (and it's dumb if it was out of loyalty). Not sure why that's hard to understand. By far the biggest question mark for me regarding Gute's first offseason. I've liked a lot of the moves, but I'll keep repeating my position that if we go into Week 1 with Allison and the Day 3 trio as our only WRs behind Adams and slot-man Cobb, it's going to bite us in the *** sooner or later this year.

[packfanfb]

1 hour ago, {Family Ghost} said:

Hopefully the loss is augmented by an increase in targets for Adams and Graham.  Removing Jordy should lead to a targets uptick for Adams .. who appears to be on the rise .. while Nelson seemed to be on the decline.  Even though Allison is a starter he will probably be #4 in the pecking order when it comes to targets.  

It's not just about targets though. You put Allison out there and teams don't even have to respect him. Adams is going to see coverage like he has never seen before. 

[VegasDan]

3 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

How are they better off with Jordy not on this team right now?

Unless you're going to make some kind of argument that Jordy Nelson is  a locker room cancer, and therefore it's better to have the unused cap space?

We've got 11 million dollars sitting unused right now and Geronimo Allison as a starting receiver. 

 

It is better to have unused cap space than pay a lot of money for an old WR on the decline with limited productuon.

Unused salary cap rolls over to the next year. No player decision should be based entirely on if cap space is available. 

We have Cobb and Graham as well. Let's not pretend Allison is garbage either.

[AlexGreen#20]

2 hours ago, {Family Ghost} said:

Hopefully the loss is augmented by an increase in targets for Adams and Graham.  Removing Jordy should lead to a targets uptick for Adams .. who appears to be on the rise .. while Nelson seemed to be on the decline.  Even though Allison is a starter he will probably be #4 in the pecking order when it comes to targets.  

Adams is the clear#1 on this team. Adams is going to get his targets regardless. 

All that's going to happen is Allison is going to get Jordy's targets. We're not going to stop running 3 WR packages.

[AlexGreen#20]

21 minutes ago, VegasDan said:

It is better to have unused cap space than pay a lot of money for an old WR on the decline with limited productuon.

Unused salary cap rolls over to the next year. No player decision should be based entirely on if cap space is available. 

We have Cobb and Graham as well. Let's not pretend Allison is garbage either.

This is a contending team. Starting Allison to save 5 million dollars next year is a bad call.

And Allison is garbage.

[Stevein2012]

6 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

This is a contending team. Starting Allison to save 5 million dollars next year is a bad call.

And Allison is garbage.

and paying for a WR with no legs who they think is done is a bad call too.  Just seems like small potatos either way.  Jordy can't run, he likely wasn't going to be a very big contributor next year regardless of what they did with the contract.

[AlexGreen#20]

2 hours ago, Stevein2012 said:

and paying for a WR with no legs who they think is done is a bad call too.  Just seems like small potatos either way.  Jordy can't run, he likely wasn't going to be a very big contributor next year regardless of what they did with the contract.

Jordy Nelson with Aaron Rodgers as his QB was a fine#2 boundary guy with the ability to play in the slot. He's better than  Allison. Brett Hundley's inability to find the second receiver in a play shouldn't be held against him.

[TheOnlyThing]

On 6/30/2018 at 6:29 AM, AlexGreen#20 said:

In his place steps Brian Gutekunst, Thompson’s former right-hand man. Unlike his predecessor, Gutekunst has not been playing Blackjack. Instead he’s sat at the mid-value Poker table ...

Gute's predecessor most definitely played Texas Hold'em.

The poker-playing record reveals that he held at least one pocket Ace for 13 straight hands.

The first two hands, he was dealt weak kickers and understandably folded early. 

The third hand, he held a middling kicker that unexpectedly held up until the turn where his hand was dominated.

The fourth hand again featured a weak kicker that led to an early fold.

The fifth hand showed some promise after the flop, but nothing came on the turn.

The sixth hand, oh that glorious sixth hand, resulted from some real riverboat gambling and resulted in the biggest pot a GM can rake in.

Sadly, the big pot from the sixth hand led the previous GM to play poker so conservatively thereafter, even when he was holding big slick, that several more aggressive GMs (I mean players) took home the next seven pots. 

There is no doubt the previous GM believed his lack of gambling was the smart play even as his chip stack diminished ever so steadily over the past 7 seasons (I mean pots). 

Thankfully, the bankroller stepped in after the 13th pot to stanch the hemorrhaging and put an end to previous GM's poker-playing days as he (finally) recognized what the previous GM (and many of his fans) could not ... you don't typically "win" at poker by simply holding on to the cards you've been dealt and letting the chips fall where they may.

[Stevein2012]

2 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Jordy Nelson with Aaron Rodgers as his QB was a fine#2 boundary guy with the ability to play in the slot. He's better than  Allison. Brett Hundley's inability to find the second receiver in a play shouldn't be held against him.

A #2 boundary guy who can't run is fine?  Paying that player 10m or whatever when he's likely to become your #4 at best is fine?  I'd say deciding to move on from that player is what's fine.  Paying Jordy a wad of cash to baseball slide every time he catches the ball isn't a good option and neither is having Allison start but neither were likely to have much of a season IMO so meh.  Not landing someone better to hold down that spot is the real issue but I don't think this team misses Jordy next year either way.

[AlexGreen#20]

6 hours ago, Stevein2012 said:

A #2 boundary guy who can't run is fine?  Paying that player 10m or whatever when he's likely to become your #4 at best is fine?  I'd say deciding to move on from that player is what's fine.  Paying Jordy a wad of cash to baseball slide every time he catches the ball isn't a good option and neither is having Allison start but neither were likely to have much of a season IMO so meh.  Not landing someone better to hold down that spot is the real issue but I don't think this team misses Jordy next year either way.

Geronimo Allison runs a god damn 4.7 40. Our #2 Boundary guy can't run right now.

At least Nelson could be depended on to be where he needed to be and could create some separation with savvy and on broken plays.

The Raiders didn't pay Jordy scrub money either. This idea that Jordy is entirely fried is nonsense.

With Rodgers as his QB, Nelson was on pace for the following line: 61 receptions / 736 yards / 19TDs

Allison played in 491 snaps, 1/3 of total snaps ran and had 23 receptions / 253 yards / 0 TDs

There are levels of badness and Allison is on a deeper level than Jordy.

[Stevein2012]

1 hour ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Geronimo Allison runs a god damn 4.7 40. Our #2 Boundary guy can't run right now.

At least Nelson could be depended on to be where he needed to be and could create some separation with savvy and on broken plays.

The Raiders didn't pay Jordy scrub money either. This idea that Jordy is entirely fried is nonsense.

With Rodgers as his QB, Nelson was on pace for the following line: 61 receptions / 736 yards / 19TDs

Allison played in 491 snaps, 1/3 of total snaps ran and had 23 receptions / 253 yards / 0 TDs

There are levels of badness and Allison is on a deeper level than Jordy.

I wouldn't bet on Jordy being much faster than a 4.7 right now would you?  Why doesn't Allison get the Hundley excuse that you give Jordy though?  Geronimo only played 182 snaps with Rodgers and had 179 of his yards, Jordy had 319 snaps with Rodgers and 258 yards plus like 10 yards in Minnesota before Rodgers went out.  Add in that on 23 receptions to Jordys 53 Geronimo had damn near the same YAC which is pretty sad considering how bad Allison is.  I'm not trying to say Allison is any good because he's crap but I really doubt that Oakland is getting it's moneys worth next year and I doubt the current version of Jordy will be very missed in GB.