BuFF/NYJ/Colts- Figuring Out the '18 QB Race for a Top-2 Pick

[Mind Character]

 

***I'm assuming all posts/threads on the old version of the forum will be deleted soon after 8/12. With that in mind, I'm reposting this thread topic here as the topic will likely be relevant for future discussion. If this is out of line, my apologies to the mods*******

 

Do you think the Browns lose enough games to secure a top-2 pick and the chance to select one of the top QB1s??

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Ultimately, the battle for a 2018 top-2 pick and pick of the top 2 QB1s will likely come down to 3 teams...

Which teams are likely to be in the running, and where do the Browns stand in the race?


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Tentatively projecting answers to those questions yielded the following:

The Race for Darnold and Allen (or insert your favorite QB1s name here)

I wanted to get an idea of which teams are likely to be in the running for the top 2-3 picks in the 2018 draft with the thought in mind that it is somewhat likely that 2 of Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, Riley Ferguson, and Luke Falk (if healthy and continue their progression) will come off the board 1 and 2 as franchise QB1s. Talent-wise it's Darnold and Allen all day if they continue to progress and stay healthy.


Taking Inventory of the complete Trash and Amazingness that is NFL Roster Talent...

Beyond my own personal knowledge of teams/coaches, to find out the trash versus impact talent composition of teams, I looked over the rosters/projected depth charts of all the nfl teams on rotoworld (http://www.rotoworld.com/teams/depth-charts/nfl.aspx) to get an idea of the roster talent/deficiencies of each team.

The Caveat

I know that these rosters are incomplete and the nfl season does hold some surprises based on players/teams transcending expectations, unexpected injuries that derail successful seasons, and favorable scheduling.

However, it's pretty easy to see which teams are going to be awful..
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The Five-Team Race
(In no particular order)These are the worst teams and some major deficiencies in their roster:


The QB1 needy:

1. 49ers
-No WR playmakers besides Garcon (Marquis Goodwin, Pierre Garcon, and Jeremy Kurley);
-no CBs at all
-QB issues (Hoyer and Barkely)
- No TE (Lynch admitted they tried to trade Vance Mcdonald)

2. The Jets
-No RBs (Bilal Powell; an aging Matt Forte);
No QB (Mccown, Petty, Hackenberg);
No true WR1 (Eric Decker, Quincy Enunwa, Chad Hansen, Jalin Marshall, ArDarius Stewart);
-No True TE1 with experience (Seferian-Jenkins; Jordan Legget)
-No 34OLBs for pass rush (Lorenzo Mauldin; Jordan Jenkins)
-CBs won't stop anyone (Claiborne, Buster Skrine, Marcus Williams)

3. Browns
-Issues of Youth/Inexperience
-QB Issues
-WR1 issues
-Secondary issues

The Non-QB needy (As of now):

1. Rams
--Inexperienced QB
--WR and impact pass catcher issues
--OL issues
-Secondary issues

2. Bears
--InexperiencedQB
--No Pass catchers (WR Kevin White; Cameron Meredith, Kendall White, Reuben Randle)
--No TE

3. Buffalo Bills
--No WR1; got rid of Watkins (Zay Jones; Jordan matthews)
-TE1 issues
-Oline issues
-Safety issues

-CB issues

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(No particular order) Outside Chance of being bad or even really bad

1. Vikings
-OL issues
-WR1 issues
-Rookie RB and Latavius Murray
-QB health issues

2. Bengals
--OL issues
--Secondary issues
--Some DLine and pass rush issues
--Rookies at key many key offensive positons

3. Colts
--WR issues
--Defensive playmaker issues
--No 34OLB pass rush specialist (Sheard and John Simon won't cut it as impact playmakers in the 34 although I love both the players)
--Scheme fit issues

4. Texans
--Inexperienced QB
--Secondary issues

5. Lions
--RB issues
--OL Issues
-Secondary issues
-Defensive playmaker issues
--pass rush issues


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I think that the Jets have the best chance at getting the #1 or 2 pick followed by the 49ers. The Bills could be tanking given the Sammy Watkins and Darby trade. With two picks in each of the first 3 rounds they could be loading up draft assets to make a move for a young franchise QB1 if Tyrod doesn't fit the bill.

I think the Browns are likely to be the third worse team in the league based on record with an outside chance that the 49ers or Bears end up with the third worse record in the league.

I think the supreme talent QB1 game changers will go 1 and 2.....so, the only way the Browns realistically have a chance at Darnold or Allen (or whoever your #2 QB is) would be if the Bears or Rams finished with the second worst record in the league, thereby allowing us to trade up with them for the pick due to their having Goff and Trubisky as future QB1s already on their respective roster.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

I don't think we'll be picking top 3. I'm expecting a scrappy team that wins 4-6 games tbh.

They filled a LOT of holes this offseason.

[candyman93]

Jets have the #1 pick on lock. The best player on their offense is a old as hell Matt Forte.

[ditchdigger]

4 hours ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

I don't think we'll be picking top 3. I'm expecting a scrappy team that wins 4-6 games tbh.

They filled a LOT of holes this offseason.

And they also did pretty good at acquiring players for positions of need.  

 

[Mind Character]

A lot of positives to build on but I'm not going to crown us yet....a lot of youth on our team...no WR1s as of yet...and spotty QB play can still be a formula for picking in the top 4-5 picks in the draft. If we go Kizer...the rook may struggle some...Kessler and Osweiler could as well...I do now think the Jets are a lock based on the happenings since I original made this post; however, I think a lot of it still holds true regarding the teams in the running, including ours...

5 or even 6 wins can be top 7 depending on the competitiveness of the league year.

Question is.....who's are the potential top 3 potential locks for worst record besides the Jets?

NFC Teams-

NFC East: No Top 5 worst Teams - Cowboys, Giants, Washington, Philly

NFC North: Maybe the Bears; Maybe the Vikings on an outside shot; No to the Packers; No to the Lions

NFC South: Falcons, no. Panthers, no. Saints, no. Bucs, no.

NFC West: Cards with improved defense, nah. Rams with Wade Phillips, defensive talent, Gurley, a healthy Sammy watkins etc...maybe yeah, but looking like a 7 win team possibly. 49ers...yep. Seahawks...yep

AFC Teams-

AFC East: Bills, yep. Dolphins not really b/c too potent on offense with defensive impact players...can Cutler/Matt Moore ball enough...outside chance they suck...but they play the Jets and Bills twice a year so....Patriots, hell no. Jets have Hackenberg....yes

AFC North: Ravens...maybe right? Bengals..maybe but not likely due to offensive skill improvement. Steelers...nope. Browns...I wish no but yep.

AFC South: Colts...yes.. Texans...yes...Jags, yes...Titans, no.

AFC West: Broncos, won't be good but won't be that bad. Chiefs, won't be good but won't be that bad. Chargers...outside chance but Rivers, Bosa, Ingram might prevent them from being top 5. Raiders no.

Summary:

-In the NFC, top 5 worst record candidates are: Bears, Viking, 49ers, and Rams

-In the AFC, top 5 worst record candidates are: Bills, Jets, Colts, Texans, Jags, Chargers

-Out or those teams...I can only really see the Jets and an Andrew Luckless Colts being clearly the worst teams. The Browns, Bills, 49ers, Texans, Jags, Chargers could all have 3-7 win seasons.

Therefore, I think there's a good chance we make it into the top 5 in next years draft even if we made progress and had a relatively good year. Even though some believe it's on the decline, we play in a tough division strong coaches and talented players.

 

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

5 hours ago, ditchdigger said:

And they also did pretty good at acquiring players for positions of need.  

 

Nice to see you finally joined us you old grump.

Ain't so bad eh?

[Kiwibrown]

1 hour ago, Mind Character said:

 

Therefore, I think there's a good chance we make it into the top 5 in next years draft even if we made progress and had a relatively good year. Even though some believe it's on the decline, we play in a tough division strong coaches and talented players.

 

We could also take two of the top 5 picks depending on how the Texans go. 

This regime would require a miracle to be intact at the end of the year if we are bottom 5 bad. 

I think we have to win 4-5 games to be safe. 
 

[ditchdigger]

2 hours ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Nice to see you finally joined us you old grump.

Ain't so bad eh?

At first I was like

then I got through 14000 pron spam and facebook notification emails and now I'm like

It's an improvement.

[DizzyDean]

I honestly think 6 wins this year is the basement.  I think Crow was spot on when he said the Browns will shock the world this year.  I could see more than 6 also.

[buno67]

2 hours ago, Kiwibrown said:

We could also take two of the top 5 picks depending on how the Texans go. 

This regime would require a miracle to be intact at the end of the year if we are bottom 5 bad. 

I think we have to win 4-5 games to be safe. 
 

I dont know, it all depends on how the team plays. Here this team could be in every game but they just find ways to lose for silly reason here or there.

I think as long as the roster is coming a long, players are following the coaches, and you see growth, the staff will keep their jobs. I think right now this team shouldnt be judged by their record because of their youth.

I cant remember who I was listening too but the main reason Chud got canned after one season because he basically lost control of the team. No one was buying in. Makes sense when they had a decent record at the bye week and then come back and get completely destroyed by Cincy and basically lose the rest of the games for the rest of the season. 

[Kiwibrown]

31 minutes ago, buno67 said:

I dont know, it all depends on how the team plays. Here this team could be in every game but they just find ways to lose for silly reason here or there.

I think as long as the roster is coming a long, players are following the coaches, and you see growth, the staff will keep their jobs. I think right now this team shouldnt be judged by their record because of their youth.

I cant remember who I was listening too but the main reason Chud got canned after one season because he basically lost control of the team. No one was buying in. Makes sense when they had a decent record at the bye week and then come back and get completely destroyed by Cincy and basically lose the rest of the games for the rest of the season. 

I agree with everything you said. 

We could still implode if we get off to a bad start. 

[NudeTayne]

We're winning as many or more games than the Texans this year.  Mark it down.

Time to mod-edit the thread name to include BUF/NYJ/49ers instead.

[Mind Character]

3 hours ago, NudeTayne said:

We're winning as many or more games than the Texans this year.  Mark it down.

Time to mod-edit the thread name to include BUF/NYJ/49ers instead.

Facts @NudeTayne......haha...facts.I felt that way too.

A trade here or there and before you know it...now we're better than the bills. I was going to do that and made some adjustments in the comment about the bills but then I started thinking.

Who has the better QB: Bills

Who has the Better RB: Bills

Who has the Better WR: Anquan Boldin, Jordan Matthews, Zay Jones versus Corey Coleman, Kenny Britt, Ricardo Lewis...I kind of got to go with the bills.

TE: Charles Clay vs Seth Devalve/Njoku...Bills

OL: Browns

Their defense isn't all that terrible with a healthy Kyle Williams and Marcel Dareus, but I give us the edge there but it may not go that way. They'll split with the dolphins, get sweeped by the Pats and sweep the Jets. Given their and our schedules I could see both teams winning 3 or 4 games or winning 7. I think the odds are stacked against bills and they'll likely finish worse record wise thann us, but it's not all that certain

[DizzyDean]

5 hours ago, buno67 said:

I dont know, it all depends on how the team plays. Here this team could be in every game but they just find ways to lose for silly reason here or there.

I think as long as the roster is coming a long, players are following the coaches, and you see growth, the staff will keep their jobs. I think right now this team shouldnt be judged by their record because of their youth.

I cant remember who I was listening too but the main reason Chud got canned after one season because he basically lost control of the team. No one was buying in. Makes sense when they had a decent record at the bye week and then come back and get completely destroyed by Cincy and basically lose the rest of the games for the rest of the season. 

This was actually us last year, we were in most games, but always found a way to turn a W into an L late.  I think the management/coaching structure is safe no matter what this year.  I think Jimmy got tired of the rotating doors and realized that they would never work.  I think Hue and Sashi get their 4 years no matter what.  Now if at the end of those 4 years, we are still fluttering around with 3 or 4 win seasons, then I think he makes a move.

[NudeTayne]

8 hours ago, Mind Character said:

Facts @NudeTayne......haha...facts.I felt that way too.

A trade here or there and before you know it...now we're better than the bills. I was going to do that and made some adjustments in the comment about the bills but then I started thinking.

Who has the better QB: Bills

Who has the Better RB: Bills

Who has the Better WR: Anquan Boldin, Jordan Matthews, Zay Jones versus Corey Coleman, Kenny Britt, Ricardo Lewis...I kind of got to go with the bills.

TE: Charles Clay vs Seth Devalve/Njoku...Bills

OL: Browns

Their defense isn't all that terrible with a healthy Kyle Williams and Marcel Dareus, but I give us the edge there but it may not go that way. They'll split with the dolphins, get sweeped by the Pats and sweep the Jets. Given their and our schedules I could see both teams winning 3 or 4 games or winning 7. I think the odds are stacked against bills and they'll likely finish worse record wise thann us, but it's not all that certain

Can't argue with most of that.  I'll take our TEs going forward, though.  I also would at least call our WRs a wash against theirs.  I also think our OL being better and our team having a forward momentum is going to show up in the win column.  I like Tyrod & Shady though think this is the year the Bills do poorly.  I still pick the Jets to have the #1 pick, though.