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Saquon Barkley


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Kamara had an historically obscene 1.08 fantasy points per touch, which is going to come down.  I'm worried about a C.J. Spiller type of repeat.  I'd much rather have a bellcow like Barkley.  When you look at Barkley versus Brown, I have a really hard time passing on Brown there in any non-standard format.

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5 minutes ago, keysersoze3421 said:

Kamara had an historically obscene 1.08 fantasy points per touch, which is going to come down.  I'm worried about a C.J. Spiller type of repeat.  I'd much rather have a bellcow like Barkley.  When you look at Barkley versus Brown, I have a really hard time passing on Brown there in any non-standard format.

I definitely expect the 1.08 points per touch to go down but wouldnt you expect a decent increase in workload too?

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1 minute ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

I definitely expect the 1.08 points per touch to go down but wouldnt you expect a decent increase in workload too?

I don't know.  Even if so, it could have the Lamar Miller effect.  I think Kamara will definitely see an uptick the first four weeks in workload, but when Ingram returns, I imagine something closer to last year.  I feel like drafting Kamara in the first round is drafting him at his ceiling.

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1 minute ago, keysersoze3421 said:

I don't know.  Even if so, it could have the Lamar Miller effect.  I think Kamara will definitely see an uptick the first four weeks in workload, but when Ingram returns, I imagine something closer to last year.  I feel like drafting Kamara in the first round is drafting him at his ceiling.

Fair enough. I find out this weekend where i draft. I really want to be in the Top-5 or bottom 3-4 of the 12 team league. 6-9 is no mans land imo

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1 minute ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Fair enough. I find out this weekend where i draft. I really want to be in the Top-5 or bottom 3-4 of the 12 team league. 6-9 is no mans land imo

Interesting.  I'd be happy with any of Bell, Gurley, Elliott, Barkley, Brown, Jones, or Beckham with my first pick.  That would leave Hopkins and Johnson 8-9 which isn't a bad start.

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11 minutes ago, keysersoze3421 said:

Interesting.  I'd be happy with any of Bell, Gurley, Elliott, Barkley, Brown, Jones, or Beckham with my first pick.  That would leave Hopkins and Johnson 8-9 which isn't a bad start.

Surprised you have Johnson rated that low. I feel like Jones TD production and Beckham's ankles make me worry about taking them 1st

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His ADP is 5th overall right now.  I don't recall a rookie going that high, and I've been playing fantasy football since the days when Priest Holmes was going #1 overall.  I like to draft early so I've already done two $100 pro league drafts on yahoo.  In one league he went 6th overall, and in the other league I was fortunate enough to draft him at #10 overall (also got Julio at #11).

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9 hours ago, Gmen said:

His ADP is 5th overall right now.  I don't recall a rookie going that high, and I've been playing fantasy football since the days when Priest Holmes was going #1 overall.  I like to draft early so I've already done two $100 pro league drafts on yahoo.  In one league he went 6th overall, and in the other league I was fortunate enough to draft him at #10 overall (also got Julio at #11).

I do think part of that is the "bell cow" back we've grown up with have gone a way a bit but a fresh rookie RB can handle the load and coaches want to flaunt their new toy. Pretty much every RB going after him is likely getting less touches

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12 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Kamara isnt exactly a tiny RB, he is the same size as Kareem Hunt. While he absolutely will have some regression, some of that will be evened out with getting more touches

He had 120 carries at 6 ypc. I think 170 carries at 4.5 ypc isn't out of the question at all and that is more yards. I dont think his receiving numbers are THAT unreachable either

I love Kamara don't get my post twisted too much thinking I don't.  I am pumped that I drafted him last year (pats self on back) and now can keep him in the 13th round this year.  If one of the other top RB's are there and not kept I'm going to do whatever I can to pair two stud RB's early.  I just hope I draft early in round 1 to have a shot at that.

Barkley while I don't think he'll be as efficient as Kamara because of the Giants poor OL I do think he has a shot at over 100 more touches on the ground and similar targets in the receiving game.  If Barkley can hang around the 4.0 ypc that would be an immediate boost over Kamara on touches alone.  Plus all the goal line work not getting poached by an Ingram.  Again after the big 4 I have Barkley and Kamara on their own 2nd tier above the rest.  If pressed though I probably would play it safer with the guy that gets more touches in Barkley even in a worse offense.  Very few guys are expected to see a near 400 touch season like the top 4 RB's and Barkley could.

It's so close though and you can't go wrong starting your draft with either.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 8/2/2018 at 8:19 AM, Rockice_8 said:

I love Kamara don't get my post twisted too much thinking I don't.  I am pumped that I drafted him last year (pats self on back) and now can keep him in the 13th round this year.  If one of the other top RB's are there and not kept I'm going to do whatever I can to pair two stud RB's early.  I just hope I draft early in round 1 to have a shot at that.

Barkley while I don't think he'll be as efficient as Kamara because of the Giants poor OL I do think he has a shot at over 100 more touches on the ground and similar targets in the receiving game.  If Barkley can hang around the 4.0 ypc that would be an immediate boost over Kamara on touches alone.  Plus all the goal line work not getting poached by an Ingram.  Again after the big 4 I have Barkley and Kamara on their own 2nd tier above the rest.  If pressed though I probably would play it safer with the guy that gets more touches in Barkley even in a worse offense.  Very few guys are expected to see a near 400 touch season like the top 4 RB's and Barkley could.

It's so close though and you can't go wrong starting your draft with either.

I don’t think that Barkley will see even close to the number of targets as Kamara. Kamara will very likely lead RBs in targets by a decent margin. He is essentially the Saints slot receiver on downs with Ingram in the backfield. 90+ receptions is very realistic...I think that Barkley will be closer to 60. The Giants and Shurmur hasn’t demonstrated that RB is a big part of their receiving game. 

I really like Barkley...but people are getting a bit overwhelmed by his potential. The Giants have still yet to prove that they can be even average at run blocking. And Barkley, though gifted does have the tendency to want to take everything to the house. Against defenses with decent lane integrity, I think that he’s going to make a ton of negative plays. Even in the preseason game, if you look past the great run he had juking everyone...lots of 1 yard carries. 

I tend to be pretty risk averse...and I’ll be taking all of the established marquee RBs over Barkley in a re-drafter league. 

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35 minutes ago, sammymvpknight said:

I don’t think that Barkley will see even close to the number of targets as Kamara. Kamara will very likely lead RBs in targets by a decent margin. He is essentially the Saints slot receiver on downs with Ingram in the backfield. 90+ receptions is very realistic...I think that Barkley will be closer to 60. The Giants and Shurmur hasn’t demonstrated that RB is a big part of their receiving game. 

I really like Barkley...but people are getting a bit overwhelmed by his potential. The Giants have still yet to prove that they can be even average at run blocking. And Barkley, though gifted does have the tendency to want to take everything to the house. Against defenses with decent lane integrity, I think that he’s going to make a ton of negative plays. Even in the preseason game, if you look past the great run he had juking everyone...lots of 1 yard carries. 

I tend to be pretty risk averse...and I’ll be taking all of the established marquee RBs over Barkley in a re-drafter league. 

How many guys is that though?  Obviously the big 4 are still ahead of Barkley and I already said Kamara is basically on the same tier but I'd tend to go Barkley based on touches but it could go either way really.  Are you really taking any of Hunt, Gordon, Freeman, Cook or Fournette over Barkley?  I think you'd be crazy if you did because all those guys are super risky especially when you are going risk averse.  Barkley is safe based on touches alone and no competition.  Even if he had a few negative runs he's going to produce he's just too talented and will get more then enough touches to make up for his bounce runs that go for -1 yard.

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1 hour ago, Rockice_8 said:

How many guys is that though?  Obviously the big 4 are still ahead of Barkley and I already said Kamara is basically on the same tier but I'd tend to go Barkley based on touches but it could go either way really.  Are you really taking any of Hunt, Gordon, Freeman, Cook or Fournette over Barkley?  I think you'd be crazy if you did because all those guys are super risky especially when you are going risk averse.  Barkley is safe based on touches alone and no competition.  Even if he had a few negative runs he's going to produce he's just too talented and will get more then enough touches to make up for his bounce runs that go for -1 yard.

I currently have Gurley, Bell, Kamara, DJ, and Hunt before Barkley in PPR. I have the above, along with Fournette ahead of him in standard scoring. 

None of those guys are more risky than a guy we have never seen in a real NFL game. I do like Barkley, I have him as the highest rated rookie RB since AP...but we’re in the pinnacle of fantasy football at the RB position...there are lots of good established options who have proven to be great. 

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9 minutes ago, sammymvpknight said:

I currently have Gurley, Bell, Kamara, DJ, and Hunt before Barkley in PPR. I have the above, along with Fournette ahead of him in standard scoring. 

None of those guys are more risky than a guy we have never seen in a real NFL game. I do like Barkley, I have him as the highest rated rookie RB since AP...but we’re in the pinnacle of fantasy football at the RB position...there are lots of good established options who have proven to be great. 

Fournette has proven that he is still an injury risk, has no passing threat to clear the box as of yet, and struggles to average 4 ypc.  Hard pass on that.  JAC was better with him out of the lineup last year.  Like Gordon only thing he has going is volume.  Barkley is far superior talent wise and will also have the volume.

LOL you made it sound like Barkley was much lower in your ranking by your post then move him down like 1 spot in your rankings in PPR for Hunt.  

Hunt fell off a cliff last year and now has a competent backup RB in Ware behind and is now playing with a young QB who likely won't be as consistent as Alex Smith was last year.  He has plenty of risk attached to him.

I see no reason why Fournette and Hunt are clearly ahead of Barkley.  Why because they are going into year 2?  Seems like random logic.  I personally think you are overthinking this.  There is no reason Barkley should be drafted behind either Hunt or Fournette in any scoring format.  He is a superior talent who is going to get the touches of a 3 down workhorse back.  Don't overthink it he is about as safe as it gets in round 1 from that standpoint.

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