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101Raider

Saquon Barkley

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Am I out of line from thinking Barkley is worth a top 5 pick?  After the big four RBs: Bell, Gurley, DJ, Zeke, I'm having a hell of a time deciding between Barkley and the safer consensus AB (0.5PPR).  

Barkley is gong to be work horse for the Giants.  ELITE athlete going into likely the perfect situation:  Aging QB who is transitioning out (meaning heavy reliance on the run), supporting cast that will prevent any stacked boxes and a front office that is going to attempt to justify their #2 selection.  

Not only is he going to be a workhorse ball carrier, but he's a beast in the pass game too.   He very well could never leave the field...  Add a vastly improved line and I wouldn't be surprised to see him edging out a couple of the top 4 RBs listed. At the very least, I can see him lead the league in touches.   Barkley has the ultimate FF triumvirate with his talent, opportunity and situation.

This year I want to be a buyer, but is pick 5 to much?

 

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I wouldn't bat an eye if someone did that, especially if it's in a PPR league. Barkley is a big receiving threat. The only question is, what is the Giants Run/Pass ratio going to be? More carries would obviously benefit Barkley fantasy owners.

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My concerns arent with him so much as his opportunity. The fact his OL is average at best and plays on a bad team that might be throwing alot later on might mean he isn't THAT great. I definitely wouldnt take him Top-3 but everyone 4-8 can be jumbled up alot of different ways

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I wouldn’t say it’s the perfect situation. The Giants have been trash at running the football for as long as I can remember. The most important thing for a running back remains vision, and it’s the most difficult thing to scout. I don’t think that he’s a Canton lock quite yet

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14 hours ago, sammymvpknight said:

I wouldn’t say it’s the perfect situation. The Giants have been trash at running the football for as long as I can remember. The most important thing for a running back remains vision, and it’s the most difficult thing to scout. I don’t think that he’s a Canton lock quite yet

He does have great vision imo but if the hole isn't there he cant hit it no matter how good his vision is. And at pick 5 that is quite a gamble. 

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On 7/8/2018 at 2:17 AM, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

He does have great vision imo but if the hole isn't there he cant hit it no matter how good his vision is. And at pick 5 that is quite a gamble. 

Nate Solder, Will Hernandez and to a lesser degree Omameh should improve the run game though right?

Also,  Shurmur and Shula new philosophy should be a good thing for Barkely too right?   

Am I being too cute passing on the sure thing (as much as any thing can be a sure thing in FF) in Antonio Brown?

 

I feel like I have a lot more flexibility in the draft by taking a bell-cow in the 1st.  Shady/s legal issues, means there's one less stud RB in the mix in the early rounds too.

 

 

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27 minutes ago, 101Raider said:

Nate Solder, Will Hernandez and to a lesser degree Omameh should improve the run game though right?

Also,  Shurmur and Shula new philosophy should be a good thing for Barkely too right?   

Am I being too cute passing on the sure thing (as much as any thing can be a sure thing in FF) in Antonio Brown?

 

I feel like I have a lot more flexibility in the draft by taking a bell-cow in the 1st.  Shady/s legal issues, means there's one less stud RB in the mix in the early rounds too.

 

 

I had Shady bumped down a peg anyways since i assume defenses will be up front big time and he has alot of wear n tear too. Eventually he falls off a cliff. 

As far as the Barkley v AB thing, I understand the flexibility that taking Barkley gets but at what is your production break/even point for Barkley? Say Brown puts up another 1500 yards and 9 TDs like last year. How much do you need from Barkley before you stop regretting picking him over AB? Does he need 1400 combined and 10? 

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On 7/13/2018 at 9:12 AM, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

I had Shady bumped down a peg anyways since i assume defenses will be up front big time and he has alot of wear n tear too. Eventually he falls off a cliff. 

As far as the Barkley v AB thing, I understand the flexibility that taking Barkley gets but at what is your production break/even point for Barkley? Say Brown puts up another 1500 yards and 9 TDs like last year. How much do you need from Barkley before you stop regretting picking him over AB? Does he need 1400 combined and 10? 

I know it's not a true apples to apples comparison, but I know if I took Barkley and AB outscores him, I'd be pissed as a RB should generally outscore a RB in the same tier. So with that, I'd say my break even would be at least ABs point total as a baseline.

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4 hours ago, 101Raider said:

I know it's not a true apples to apples comparison, but I know if I took Barkley and AB outscores him, I'd be pissed as a RB should generally outscore a RB in the same tier. So with that, I'd say my break even would be at least ABs point total as a baseline.

Yea i suppose thats a fair baseline but Barkley getting 1500 yards and 9TDs isn’t exactly a slam dunk

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I concur completely, 1500 and 9 is far from a slam dunk.  I honestly vacillate back and forth between him and AB.  I'm thinking/hoping usage like Fournette last year (hopefully with a full 16 games) with increased passing attempts as his baseline. I honestly think that's reasonable.  He had 1300ish yard with 10 TDs and 36 receptions over 13 games.  Extrapolate that over 16 games and thats... well something better than 1300ish, 10 and 36 lol.

I'm hopeful that with OBJ, Shepard and Evans that he sees a lot of 7 man fronts and has some nice rushing lanes (unfortunately he has a hellish schedule).

 

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I'd be shocked if he's not a top 10 RB this year.  With his ability to catch the rock he is a lock for a top 10 season.  With 1700-1800 all purpose yards and 10 TD's that would put him right around top 5 which should be doable.  NYG are going to force feed him when they can.

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Despite a really tough schedule, I’d probably take him 5th overall over AB in ppr.

 

Im more likely to have a stud wr fall to me like Julio or Michael Thomas in the mid 2nd than I am a stud RB.

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You guys are talking Barkley over Kamara in ppr?

I think is Barkley is right there with Kareem Hunt as RB #6/7 behind Gurley, Bell, Zeke, Johnson, and Kamara. I could see Kamara/Hunt/Barkley being ranked all about the same. Healthy Dalvin Cook is in that mix too.

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Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, Jeezla said:

You guys are talking Barkley over Kamara in ppr?

I think is Barkley is right there with Kareem Hunt as RB #6/7 behind Gurley, Bell, Zeke, Johnson, and Kamara. I could see Kamara/Hunt/Barkley being ranked all about the same. Healthy Dalvin Cook is in that mix too.

I'd take him over Kamara just because his workload is going to be among the elite RB's while Kamara won't ever see that many touches.  A slight regression on his efficiency per touch and Kamara falls out of that elite RB category (Gurley, Bell, DJ, Zeke) into the next tier with the Hunt/Cook/Gordon range.  We don't know what Barkley will do with the workload but he's an elite talent with an elite workload so how bad could it be.  I love guys that have that type of workload early because you have to get the ball to produce.  Kamara just won't ever be that 300+ touch guy.

I'd be thrilled with either back and I have Barkley and Kamara in their own tier behind the big 4 but ahead of the Hunt/Gordon/Cook/Freeman group 

Edited by Rockice_8

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6 hours ago, Rockice_8 said:

I'd take him over Kamara just because his workload is going to be among the elite RB's while Kamara won't ever see that many touches.  A slight regression on his efficiency per touch and Kamara falls out of that elite RB category (Gurley, Bell, DJ, Zeke) into the next tier with the Hunt/Cook/Gordon range.  We don't know what Barkley will do with the workload but he's an elite talent with an elite workload so how bad could it be.  I love guys that have that type of workload early because you have to get the ball to produce.  Kamara just won't ever be that 300+ touch guy.

I'd be thrilled with either back and I have Barkley and Kamara in their own tier behind the big 4 but ahead of the Hunt/Gordon/Cook/Freeman group 

Kamara isnt exactly a tiny RB, he is the same size as Kareem Hunt. While he absolutely will have some regression, some of that will be evened out with getting more touches

He had 120 carries at 6 ypc. I think 170 carries at 4.5 ypc isn't out of the question at all and that is more yards. I dont think his receiving numbers are THAT unreachable either

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