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Does the road to Super Bowl LIII in the AFC go through......


Championshiporbust

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11 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

Cool. A thing like that happened once...maybe twice ever?

 

3 hours ago, JBURGE said:

62.5% of the teams are out of contention by default by not making the playoffs. You could argue it's more like 75%. Of the playoff teams last year:

Patriots
Steelers
Titans
Chiefs
Falcons
Rams
Panthers
Saints
Bills

These 9 would not compete with the backup QB. Mahomes was not ready and the Chiefs lost anyway with the starter.

MAYBE

Jaguars

You could argue that the backup would do a comparable job to Bortles, but I would say no. 

That leaves you with 2 teams, which is 6.25% of the NFL.

Eagles
Vikings

I don't think @BleedTheClock is that out of place with what he said. The Eagles are in a situation where they had a great coaching staff and a starting caliber QB at backup. The Vikings were in a very unique situation, highlighted by the fact that they got rid of all 3 QBs and now have 3 new ones. 

There are teams where the backup is as good as the starter, like possibly Cleveland, Arizona, Buffalo and the Jets this year, but none of them are in contention for anything anyways. 
 

Which is why I absolutely agree. The Philadelphia Eagles were part of that 5%.

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On 7/12/2018 at 9:16 PM, Elky said:

 1. Four of their 10 wins, 40%, came against Houston and Indy. Neither had their starting quarterbacks and have awful lines (dead last and 25th respectively per PFF).

Can’t you make similar cases with most good teams?

Nearly 50% of the Eagles’ wins came against the Giants, Bears, Raiders, Broncos, and 49ers. Nearly 40% of the Pats’ wins came against the Jets, Buccs, Raiders, and Broncos. 

Most teams only play a handful of other good teams throughout the season. 

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28 of Jville's 55 sacks came in those four games. In fact, Houston and Indy would still be top 10 in sacks allowed if you took those games out. Houston and Indy are getting their franchise quarterbacks back and Marcus Mariota is now a full year removed from his leg break.

Again, you can probably do something similar, especially with defensive sacks.

25/56 of the Steelers’ sacks came in 4 games. 22/50 of the Panthers’ sacks game in 4 games. 23/48 of the Rams’ sacks game in 4 games. 

It happens. 

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2. Blake Bortles. While he wasn't a complete trainwreck, he's still very inconsistent and remains a liability. The amount of distrust towards him in the AFC Championship speaks volumes.

He is inconsistent, and is likely the teams’ liability (as in, if they lose, it won’t be because of the defense - it’ll more likely be because of Blake). But he was that last year. Maybe it’s an outlier but the team’s offensive roster is better than it was last year (+Norwell, +ASJ, +Moncrief in for Hurns), and with the defense coming back as strong (if not stronger) and Fournette, I don’t see a reason to really expect some sort of major negative down swing. All the structure that allowed him to do what he did last year, will be there. 

Saying they won’t have similar success as last year because of Bortles doesn’t really make sense to me because...they just did. Regression happens, obviously, but the team didn’t really regress on paper. Don’t see a reason to expect or predict regression when virtually the entire team returns. It’s not like Marrone is doing anything that other teams can figure out or something - they pound the rock. 

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I think it's the Chiefs and Steelers. Chiefs showed last year they can win against a healthy Patriots team and quite easily I might add. If Reid can prepare Mahomes and Hunt can repeat his rookie season than they are you're AFC Champs. Steelers window probably closes after this season with Bell and if Big Ben continues to decline besides that they are the most talented team in the AFC and should only get better if the 3 B's stay healthy. 

 

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On 7/11/2018 at 9:01 AM, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

What’s your point? I was saying we always say if GB/SD are healthy they will be tough to beat but every year they get the injury bug badly

The Chargers were fairly healthy last year. 

They just couldn't make kicks. 

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I like the Jaguars because of their defense, run game, and if they can get the same production from Bortles last year. The problem is the division will be tougher with Watson and Luck coming back healthy. I think the Steelers feel the most pressure because they have been so close but no cigar and the way things went last year for them.

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On 7/24/2018 at 1:16 PM, stl4life07 said:

The short answer is no.

The NFC is so stacked that whomever wins the NFCCG will win the Superbowl. 

Re-read the o̶r̶i̶g̶i̶n̶a̶l̶ ̶p̶o̶s̶t̶ title.

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