Make The Case For Why Your Team Will And Won’t Have A Sucessful 2018 Season? Best And Worst Case Scenario?

[stl4life07]

Rams 

Why they will succeed - Best offense in 2017 just got better with the addition of Cooks plus the continuity on offense will be there with another year to grow under McVay. The defense got better with the additions of high quality talent that fit what Wade wants to do on defense.

Why they won’t succeed - It’s simple, injuries. Can’t predict them but they can and will happen. If the injuries hit hard enough the Rams won’t have a successful 2018 season. There is something to be said by how important it is to have a great medical staff/training staff like the Rams do have and a coach that knows how to manage the players during a long tough season like McVay showed last season. But again we know injuries can and will happen and if it hits hard enough it could definitely hurt the Rams chances for a successful season in 2018.

Best case scenario - Rams get the 1 or 2 seed and get either a bye + hfa OR a bye then make it to the NFCCG with a chance to go to the SB.

Worst case scenario - Rams wins the NFCW but gets the 3 or 4 seed and either win one game in the playoffs and get bounced in the divisional round OR have a repeat of last season and get bounced in the wild card round.

[ET80]

Texans:

Why they will succeed - Deshaun Watson, Will Fuller and Dont'a Foreman will  return to the offense and pick up where they left off, Whitney Mercilius and JJ Watt will return and add some much needed punch to the pass rush, Jadevion Clowney will continue to improve as the centerpiece of the defense and Tyrann Mathieu will stabilize the secondary. The Texans have the individual pieces to potentially post a top 5 offense AND defense.

Why they won't succeed - each name mentioned has a significant injury history. If this group played a full 16, it would be a miracle of biblical proportions. In the case of Watson, Fuller and Foreman, they could stay healthy and still be ineffective if the Texans OL is as bad as it is on paper.

Best case scenario - Texans go 12-4 and get a top seed in the AFC.

Worst case scenario - Injuries take a quick toll on key guys, 4-12 for a 2nd straight season.

[stl4life07]

14 minutes ago, ET80 said:

Texans:

Why they will succeed - Deshaun Watson, Will Fuller and Dont'a Foreman will  return to the offense and pick up where they left off, Whitney Mercilius and JJ Watt will return and add some much needed punch to the pass rush, Jadevion Clowney will continue to improve as the centerpiece of the defense and Tyrann Mathieu will stabilize the secondary. The Texans have the individual pieces to potentially post a top 5 offense AND defense.

Why they won't succeed - each name mentioned has a significant injury history. If this group played a full 16, it would be a miracle of biblical proportions. In the case of Watson, Fuller and Foreman, they could stay healthy and still be ineffective if the Texans OL is as bad as it is on paper.

Best case scenario - Texans go 12-4 and get a top seed in the AFC.

Worst case scenario - Injuries take a quick toll on key guys, 4-12 for a 2nd straight season.

I’d venture to say I can’t see all of them getting hurt like they did last season. For me the worst case scenario is if Watson takes some time fully getting back from the injury and takes a step back as a result. If that’s the case then 12 wins could drop to 10 wins maybe even 9 wins and the Texans are fighting for a wild card spot instead of the division and/or top spot in the AFC.

[Soko]

27 minutes ago, stl4life07 said:

Why they won’t succeed - It’s simple, injuries. Can’t predict them but they can and will happen. If the injuries hit hard enough the Rams won’t have a successful 2018 season. There is something to be said by how important it is to have a great medical staff/training staff like the Rams do have and a coach that knows how to manage the players during a long tough season like McVay showed last season. But again we know injuries can and will happen and if it hits hard enough it could definitely hurt the Rams chances for a successful season in 2018.

Worst case scenario - Rams wins the NFCW but gets the 3 or 4 seed and either win one game in the playoffs and get bounced in the divisional round OR have a repeat of last season and get bounced in the wild card round.

Your worst possible scenario is they win the NFCW? And the only way that happens is through injury?

[Soko]

Anyway, New England: 

Best case scenario: Brady doesn’t lose a step and the addition of youth helps the offense. Edelman comes back seamlessly, Gronk stays healthy for a playoff run, and the run game is new with Sony Michel. On the defense, injuries are minimal, and new guys like Adrian Clayborn and Jason McCourty reinvigorate a defense that was overrated last season. NE goes 2/3 in SBs and re-establish themselves as a dynasty (a fizzling one, at that). 

Worst case scenario: Brady’s age finally shows and he regresses/gets injured. Wynn, Brown, and Cannon can’t form a reliable duo at tackle. The defense can’t gel with the new guys. Older players on D regress. Josh Allen and Sam Darnold show up as franchise QBs and the Dolphins dominate with their defense. New England gets edged out into second place in the AFCE and the Brady era officially comes to an end.

[stl4life07]

6 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

Your worst possible scenario is they win the NFCW? And the only way that happens is through injury?

No lol. I’m saying the worst case is the Rams win the NFCW but get a 3 or 4 seed and lose in the wild card round or division round. I mentioned injury for the Rams that if they suffer a big hit with injuries that could derail their season. I wasn’t meaning they need injuries to the other opponents in the division for them to succeed. 

[Soko]

10 minutes ago, stl4life07 said:

No lol. I’m saying the worst case is the Rams win the NFCW but get a 3 or 4 seed and lose in the wild card round or division round. I mentioned injury for the Rams that if they suffer a big hit with injuries that could derail their season. I wasn’t meaning they need injuries to the other opponents in the division for them to succeed. 

I mean, that’s still saying worst case scenario is they win the division...

Tad optimistic, no?

[Heinz D.]

3 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

I mean, that’s still saying worst case scenario is they win the division...

Tad optimistic, no?

That's what I thought, too. I'm high on the Rams but jeez...I mean, that even precludes a kind of sophomore slump...

[Soko]

12 minutes ago, Heinz D. said:

That's what I thought, too. I'm high on the Rams but jeez...I mean, that even precludes a kind of sophomore slump...

I’m a fan too. I expect them to be there come post season. But worst case..?

I even have the Pats missing the playoffs as worst case. Guess you could argue that’s homerism too, though. 

Probably isn’t fun if everyone says “worst case scenario is my QB, best two players on O, and best two players on D all tear their ACLs. My coach gets fired for personal conduct. Team goes 0-16”. 

[HTTRDynasty]

Redskins

Best Case Scenario:  Redskins ranked 2nd in DVOA after Week 5 in 2017.  Then an avalanche of injuries happened: the losses of Jonathan Allen, Trent Williams, Brandon Scherff, Chris Thompson, Jordan Reed, Josh Norman, Mason Foster, and Montae Nicholson for several games or more throughout the season were especially damaging.  Best case scenario is that the team remains relatively healthy, and the defense plays like a top 5 defense (efficiency-wise) again when fully healthy - and this time they will have a QB that will prevent them from ending up with terrible field position, so their bulk defensive stats should reflect their efficiency stats much more closely, and maybe their bulk stats (due to Smith's lack of TO's) actually make the defense look better than they really are (which would be a refreshing change).  On offense, Smith flourishes under Gruden, who continues scheming guys open in his sleep.  Guice becomes the player I think he will be.  And the rest of the guys (mainly Reed and Thompson) all stay relatively healthy (at least 11 out of 16 games, which Reed has actually done 3 out of 5 seasons).  Redskins have a magical year (where they're finally NOT bottom 5 in Adjusted Games Lost, and instead are top 10) and win the NFCE and make it to the NFCCG.

Worst Case Scenario:  Alex Smith's 2017 season was a mirage, and he refuses to test teams deep.  Guice doesn't live up to the pre-draft hype.  Doctson doesn't step up. The current glaring hole at nickel CB gets exposed again and again throughout the year.  Neither Dunbar nor Moreau take the next step at CB2 and we're forced to start Scandrick there.  We get devastated with injuries AGAIN.  Some combination of Richardson, Reed, Thompson, Williams, Scherff, and Moses end up injured for multiple games throughout the season on offense.  Allen, Kerrigan, Norman, Brown, Ioannidis, and Nicholson all miss multiple games on defense due to injury.  Redskins go 4-12 and fire everyone... and as long as Bruce Allen is included in that, it might be a Win long-term.

[stl4life07]

@Yin-Yang @Heinz D. It’s not that I’m optimistic it’s that it’s expected. The Rams were an 11-5 team last year that got better in the offseason. Plus I know people are high on the Niners but they are still rebuilding and are at least another year away. The Seahawks aren’t the same and while I think the Cards will be better than most think, the oline isn’t good and I can see both Bradford and Rosen taking a beating each week. So the Rams are by far the best team in a division that we can say at least for this upcoming season is right behind the AFCE as the worst division in the NFL. That means the Pats and Rams have the easiest paths to win their respective divisions.

[Soko]

15 minutes ago, stl4life07 said:

@Yin-Yang @Heinz D. It’s not that I’m optimistic it’s that it’s expected. The Rams were an 11-5 team last year that got better in the offseason. Plus I know people are high on the Niners but they are still rebuilding and are at least another year away. The Seahawks aren’t the same and while I think the Cards will be better than most think, the oline isn’t good and I can see both Bradford and Rosen taking a beating each week. So the Rams are by far the best team in a division that we can say at least for this upcoming season is right behind the AFCE as the worst division in the NFL. That means the Pats and Rams have the easiest paths to win their respective divisions.

It might be expected, but expectations vs worst case scenarios ought not to have similar results (if your team is any good, that is). 

For instance, the Packers last season probably had high expectations, likely comparable to the expectations you have for the Rams. A playoff berth and a potential SB run. Then Rodgers gets hurt, the secondary regresses, the running backs can’t stay healthy, etc. They end up with a top 15 pick. 

What about the Cowboys? They dominate the league pounding the rock to one of the NFL’s best records and almost beat the Packers if not for a few extraordinary plays from Rodgers. Then Zeke gets suspended, Dak doesn’t progress as expected, the line gets a little dinged up, and the defense doesn’t take the next step. They miss the playoffs altogether.

The fact that your expectation is that close to your “worst case scenario” really highlights that you are indeed optimistic. 

EDIT: Not that there’s anything wrong with that. Like I said, I expect the same out of the Rams (NFCW win, and playoff run). Just doesn’t really abide by the spirit of the thread.

[stl4life07]

15 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

It might be expected, but expectations vs worst case scenarios ought not to have similar results (if your team is any good, that is). 

For instance, the Packers last season probably had high expectations, likely comparable to the expectations you have for the Rams. A playoff berth and a potential SB run. Then Rodgers gets hurt, the secondary regresses, the running backs can’t stay healthy, etc. They end up with a top 15 pick. 

What about the Cowboys? They dominate the league pounding the rock to one of the NFL’s best records and almost beat the Packers if not for a few extraordinary plays from Rodgers. Then Zeke gets suspended, Dak doesn’t progress as expected, the line gets a little dinged up, and the defense doesn’t take the next step. They miss the playoffs altogether.

The fact that your expectation is that close to your “worst case scenario” really highlights that you are indeed optimistic. 

EDIT: Not that there’s anything wrong with that. Like I said, I expect the same out of the Rams (NFCW win, and playoff run). Just doesn’t really abide by the spirit of the thread.

I’m not understanding. I expect the Rams to get the 1 or 2 seed and get to the NFCCG. Worst case scenario is that they repeat what happened last year. How is that the same? They didn’t go get Suh, Cooks, Talib, and Peters with the thought they would repeat last season. They was aggressive to build off of what they did last season. Worst case scenario is that they don’t build off of last season. Again it’s not like we are talking about a team that was close and added players to take them over the top. We are talking about a team that was among the best in the NFC and added to their roster to make a deeper run in the playoffs. So again I expect 1 or 2 seed and get to the NFCCG. Worst case scenario is that they have a repeat of last season which basically means what they did in this offseason yielded no progress by the end of the season.

[Soko]

18 minutes ago, stl4life07 said:

I’m not understanding. I expect the Rams to get the 1 or 2 seed and get to the NFCCG. Worst case scenario is that they repeat what happened last year. How is that the same? They didn’t go get Suh, Cooks, Talib, and Peters with the thought they would repeat last season. They was aggressive to build off of what they did last season. Worst case scenario is that they don’t build off of last season. Again it’s not like we are talking about a team that was close and added players to take them over the top. We are talking about a team that was among the best in the NFC and added to their roster to make a deeper run in the playoffs. So again I expect 1 or 2 seed and get to the NFCCG. Worst case scenario is that they have a repeat of last season which basically means what they did in this offseason yielded no progress by the end of the season.

I’m not saying your expectation and worst case are the same. I’m saying they’re incredibly close (along with your best case). 

Is there a discrepancy on the definition of worst case scenario? It means the absolute worst. Like I mentioned above, we curtail this a little bit to fit realistic expectation, otherwise everyone’s worst case scenario would be 0-16. 

The thing is, is that there’s a possibility that the Rams don’t win the division. It’s not likely. It’s not what I expect. It’s not what the FO expects. But it’s possible. That makes it worse than your worst case scenario. I mentioned the Packers and Cowboys above as teams that were expecting to do better, that did worse. 

[stl4life07]

24 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

I’m not saying your expectation and worst case are the same. I’m saying they’re incredibly close (along with your best case). 

Is there a discrepancy on the definition of worst case scenario? It means the absolute worst. Like I mentioned above, we curtail this a little bit to fit realistic expectation, otherwise everyone’s worst case scenario would be 0-16. 

The thing is, is that there’s a possibility that the Rams don’t win the division. It’s not likely. It’s not what I expect. It’s not what the FO expects. But it’s possible. That makes it worse than your worst case scenario. I mentioned the Packers and Cowboys above as teams that were expecting to do better, that did worse. 

The Packers did worst because it’s ARod or bust. As Cowherd put it last season, without ARod the Packers were on the Browns level and basically it showed when those teams played and the game went into OT with the Packers surviving. But nobody could’ve predicted ARod gets hurt in a random game against the Vikings. I personally figured the Cowboys would take a step back just due to the oline was weakened, Zeke suspension looming then happening and they also had suspended guys on defense. But I do see your point. I understand what you are saying now.