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Question of the day: Rank the likelihood of these 3?


turtle28

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1. Alex Smith throws for 4,000 yards

2. Defense has a top 10 defense. 

3. Derrius Guice rushes for 1,100 plus  yards.

On The Team 980 Kevin Sheehan asked this question?

My answer to it is how I posted it above.

What do you all think?

I will say it’s likely that all 3 happen because our DL talent/ depth is much improved with the drafting of Payne and a healthy Allen returning. I also think it’s possible that Guice does get 1100 or more yards rushing but it’s most likely he’s 50 to 200 yards less than that because Jay doesn’t stick to the run enough and he’ll be splitting carries with Chris Thompson who is likely to get 75 plus carries as a change of pace back.

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At a glance, and maybe I'm projecting my desire for a strong run game..

 

3. Guice, man. He's awesome, and CT's no slouch. Alex also will help get them into good run advantages. If the OL is healthy, they can pound.  

2. It's hard to imagine this defense not being a top 10 one, but I agree, that is being very optimistic of the unprovens in the secondary and NT. 

1. Smith at 4k - Could just as easily happen, but I hope that alleged strong run game forces so much balance that he coasts to more like 3,750. 

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3 hours ago, oldman9er said:

At a glance, and maybe I'm projecting my desire for a strong run game..

 

3. Guice, man. He's awesome, and CT's no slouch. Alex also will help get them into good run advantages. If the OL is healthy, they can pound.  

2. It's hard to imagine this defense not being a top 10 one, but I agree, that is being very optimistic of the unprovens in the secondary and NT. 

1. Smith at 4k - Could just as easily happen, but I hope that alleged strong run game forces so much balance that he coasts to more like 3,750. 

I think for a QB to have less than 4000 yards in a Jay Gruden passing offense that they have to be below average. Jay is going to throw the ball more than 500 times, he has every year he’s been in DC. Gruden even threw it that much in 2014 when Alfred Morris was still our most consistent offensive weapon and RG3, Kirk and Colt split time as our starters.

If Alex gets over 500 attempts then he’ll get over 4000 yards IMO.

Also, because Gruden is so odd happy and Guice will have Thompson take away nearly 100 of his attempts, Guice is going to end up falling short of 1,100 yards. Instead he’ll end up with right around 1,000 or just above it.

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To pass for 4K yards, a QB needs to average 250 yards/game. Gruden's offense is pass happy, so that something in Alex Smith's favor. The downside is that Smith has only averaged 250+/game once in his career: last season. We'll see, but this feels 50-50 to me. I wouldn't bet on it either way.

Top ten defense? No. Top half defense? Yes. They could be good (barring injuries), but they have to decide what they want this defense to be.

Guice for 1100 yards? No. Assuming Thompson is healthy, he's going to eat at Guice's playing time and thus ability to get yards. Plus, there's Gruden's pass happy tendencies.

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1 hour ago, turtle28 said:

I think for a QB to have less than 4000 yards in a Jay Gruden passing offense that they have to be below average. Jay is going to throw the ball more than 500 times, he has every year he’s been in DC.

Alex Smith:

2017 - 505 passing attempts, 4,042 yards

2016 - 489 passing attempts, 3,502 yards

2015 - 470 passing attempts, 3,486 yards

2014 - 464 passing attempts, 3,265 yards

2013 - 508 passing attempts, 3,313 yards

 

 

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12 minutes ago, MKnight82 said:

Alex Smith:

2017 - 505 passing attempts, 4,042 yards

2016 - 489 passing attempts, 3,502 yards

2015 - 470 passing attempts, 3,486 yards

2014 - 464 passing attempts, 3,265 yards

2013 - 508 passing attempts, 3,313 yards

 

 

Draw the correlation between Smith’s 2017 attemps and my point in that QBs in Gruden’s offense have over 500 attempts and when they do, they get over 4,000 yards in a season.

Also, 2017 Alex Smith’s #s were done in 15 games because he didn’t play week 17 as they wanted to keep him healthy for the playoffs and they wanted to get a look at Mahomes.

2013 seems to be an outlier, as I remember it back then he didn’t have much in terms of receiving options at all. It was also before Travis Kelce was drafted.

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2 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

Draw the correlation between Smith’s 2017 attemps and my point in that QBs in Gruden’s offense have over 500 attempts and when they do, they get over 4,000 yards in a season.

Also, 2017 Alex Smith’s #s were done in 15 games because he didn’t play week 17 as they wanted to keep him healthy for the playoffs and they wanted to get a look at Mahomes.

2013 seems to be an outlier, as I remember it back then he didn’t have much in terms of receiving options at all.

Alex Smith's yards per attempt (career):

2005: 2.4

2006: 5.6

2007: 4.0

2008: n/a

2009: 5.8

2010: 6.4

2011: 7.3

2012: 8.1

2013: 6.5

2014: 7.0

2015: 7.4

2016: 7.2

2017: 8.6

 

Yards per attempt required to reach 4,000 yards via 500 attempts, 8.0.  Smith has reached that twice in his 13 year career.  I would say its highly unlikely Smith throws for 4,000 yards.

 

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5 minutes ago, MKnight82 said:

Alex Smith's yards per attempt (career):

2005: 2.4

2006: 5.6

2007: 4.0

2008: n/a

2009: 5.8

2010: 6.4

2011: 7.3

2012: 8.1

2013: 6.5

2014: 7.0

2015: 7.4

2016: 7.2

2017: 8.6

 

Yards per attempt required to reach 4,000 yards via 500 attempts, 8.0.  Smith has reached that twice in his 13 year career.  I would say its highly unlikely Smith throws for 4,000 yards.

 

Here’s an idea. Answer the question posted in the original post. 

We’ll worry about you eating crow in January. I don’t care about what Alex did back in 2013 or whatever. 

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3 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

Here’s an idea. Answer the question posted in the original post. 

We’ll worry about you eating crow in January. I don’t care about what Alex did back in 2013 or whatever. 

1. Best chance is that Guice gets 1,100.

2. I'd say its rather unlikely the Redskins defense finishes top 10 in the NFL. 

3.  There is no chance Alex Smith throws for 4,000 yards.

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26 minutes ago, Woz said:

To pass for 4K yards, a QB needs to average 250 yards/game. Gruden's offense is pass happy, so that something in Alex Smith's favor. The downside is that Smith has only averaged 250+/game once in his career: last season. We'll see, but this feels 50-50 to me. I wouldn't bet on it either way.

Top ten defense? No. Top half defense? Yes. They could be good (barring injuries), but they have to decide what they want this defense to be.

Guice for 1100 yards? No. Assuming Thompson is healthy, he's going to eat at Guice's playing time and thus ability to get yards. Plus, there's Gruden's pass happy tendencies.

I think the only thing holding the Redskins defense back from having a top 10 defense is the perception that they won’t stay healthy just because they didn’t last year.

They don’t have any glaring weaknesses that I see on their defense. 

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1 minute ago, MKnight82 said:

1. Best chance is that Guice gets 1,100.

2. I'd say its rather unlikely the Redskins defense finishes top 10 in the NFL. 

3.  There is no chance Alex Smith throws for 4,000 yards.

Thank you and we shall see

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Just now, turtle28 said:

I think the only thing holding the Redskins defense back from having a top 10 defense is the perception that they won’t stay healthy just because they didn’t last year.

They don’t have any glaring weaknesses that I see on their defense. 

Depth in the linebacking corps is a question (you do need to spell guys from time to time). How the secondary is going to gel/function without Breeland and Fuller is another. Are they able to get the best personnel on the field or are they going to be rigid in playing "their" defense is yet another.

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Just now, Woz said:

Depth in the linebacking corps is a question (you do need to spell guys from time to time). How the secondary is going to gel/function without Breeland and Fuller is another. Are they able to get the best personnel on the field or are they going to be rigid in playing "their" defense is yet another.

Their run defense is also suspect until proven otherwise.  Also, other than Kerrigan they don't have a consistent edge rusher.  

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I do not think that Alex will reach 4000 yards passing. Not because he can't do it, but because we will be a run heavy team this season. I'm talking a 35/65 - pass/run ratio. Alex will get between 3000--3250 yards.

Top 10 defense is very possible. I think health will decide that. I give it a 50% chance of happening.

Guice wont get 1100 yards this season.

He'll get 2000+ yards this season.

I give him about an 80% chance of becoming the all-time single season rushing leader.

I'm guaranteeing 2000 yards though!!

100%

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