Question of the day: Rank the likelihood of these 3?

[turtle28]

1 hour ago, Woz said:

Depth in the linebacking corps is a question (you do need to spell guys from time to time). How the secondary is going to gel/function without Breeland and Fuller is another. Are they able to get the best personnel on the field or are they going to be rigid in playing "their" defense is yet another.

1. Pernell McPhee has been more reliable and better than last years main back up and he was more productive than Galette last year.

2. Agreed somewhat, but I did say “glaring weakness” for example having really no one reliable at all at a position.

3. Their defense isn’t rigid at all. In fact since 2015 they’ve run a hybrid 3-4/4-2-5 defense depending on what personnel grouping their opponents put on the field or what team they’re playing. 

They aren’t locked into just playing a 3-4 two-gap system like they were under Has or a 4-3 defense like they were in past decades. They have one of the least rigid defensive schemes in the league.

[Woz]

Just now, aceinthehouse said:

I do not think that Alex will reach 4000 yards passing. Not because he can't do it, but because we will be a run heavy team this season. I'm talking a 35/65 - pass/run ratio. Alex will get between 3000--3250 yards.

1. What have you seen from Jay Gruden that makes you think he'll go that far in the other direction in terms of pass/run?
2. Assuming 1000 plays from scrimmage, a 35:65 ratio would mean that 350 pass attempts or 8.57-9.29 YPA. For a comparison, of quarterbacks who attempted 100 passes last year, only one was north of 8.4 YPA = Jimmy Garoppolo at 8.8 YPA on 178 attempts.
3. Again, assuming 1000 plays from scrimmage this assumes that have 650 rushing plays. The most run heavy team last year (via attempts) was Jacksonville at 527 attempts (2nd was Denver at 501, with no other team above 500).

[turtle28]

I’ll be shocked if we don’t throw the ball at least 520 times this year. 

[Woz]

Just now, turtle28 said:

1. Pernell McPhee has been more reliable and better than last years main back up and he was more productive than Galette last year.

1. That's one of four linebacker positions.
2. McPhee has only played in 36 and only started 17 over the past three years (48 possible games). Not sure he's that much more reliable.

Just now, turtle28 said:

2. Agreed somewhat, but I did say “glaring weakness” for example having really no one reliable at all at a position.

Again, with questionable depth, you have the problem of having to overwork your mainline starters instead of giving them breathers thus leading to a higher chance of injuries and then having to play with those depth players.

Just now, turtle28 said:

3. Their defense isn’t rigid at all. In fact since 2015 they’ve run a hybrid 3-4/4-2-5 defense depending on what personnel grouping their opponents put on the field or what team they’re playing. 

I meant the "well, we're a 3-4 team, so we'll keep 3-4 personnel instead of the best people and maximize our talent" mindset that they've been rolling with even though they don't really play a 3-4 all that often.

 

[turtle28]

18 minutes ago, Woz said:

1. That's one of four linebacker positions.
2. McPhee has only played in 36 and only started 17 over the past three years (48 possible games). Not sure he's that much more reliable.

Again, with questionable depth, you have the problem of having to overwork your mainline starters instead of giving them breathers thus leading to a higher chance of injuries and then having to play with those depth players.

I meant the "well, we're a 3-4 team, so we'll keep 3-4 personnel instead of the best people and maximize our talent" mindset that they've been rolling with even though they don't really play a 3-4 all that often.

 

Those are “glaring weaknesses?”

Seems to me they are concerns, but not glaring weaknesses where we think that the defense is definitely going to be awful because this one position group is trash even on paper going into the season.

Martrell Spaight is fine depth at ILB. He’s not the best in the world, but he does know the defense and has experience. There isn’t any other team that is just oozing with depth at every position either. Spaight is probably one of the more reliable depth ILBs in the NFL.

McPhee has bad knees, yes, it’s a concern. It’s why he doesn’t start anymore and is just a back up. McPhee has 14 sacks over the last 3 years despite missing 12 games (and 7 of those games were in 2016). Again, it’s a concern, but not a glaring weaknesses. 6 sacks in 2015, and 4 in each of the last two years is more production than we got from Galette or Murphy in those 3 seasons. In fact, it’s nearly the total amount of production that we got from both Galette and Murphy from 2015-2017.

As for the defensive scheme. It works for Wade Phillips when he has the talent. It should work for us now that we have more talent on our defense in the front 7 this year.

[Woz]

Just now, turtle28 said:

Those are “glaring weaknesses?”

Seems to me they are concerns, but not glaring weaknesses where we think that the defense is definitely going to be awful because this one positive group is trash.

Martrell Spaight is fine depth at ILB. He’s not the best in the world, but he does know the defense and has experience. There isn’t any other teams that are just oozing with depth at every position either. Spaight is probably one of the more reliable depth ILBs in the NFL.

Are they glaring weaknesses? No. But they are reasons to be dubious about the Redskins turning into a top ten defense. Again, they have been a top half defense only twice this decade (per Football Outsiders's DVOA). Granted, one of those seasons was last year, but they fell off ... when they had to go those second tier players. Injuries happen. The fact that Zach Brown is already day-to-day after one day of camp is worrisome (I'm a lot less optimistic than you if the Redskins had to go to their 2nd team inside linebackers).

Just now, turtle28 said:

McPhee has bad knees, yes, it’s a concern. It’s why he doesn’t start anymore and is just a back up. McPhee has 14 sacks over the last 3 years despite missing 12 games (and 7 of those games were in 2016). Again, it’s a concern, but not a glaring weaknesses. 6 sacks in 2015, and 4 in each of the last two years is more production than we got from Galette or Murphy in those 3 seasons. In fact, it’s nearly the total amount of production that we got from both Galette and Murphy from 2015-2017.

1. Comparing McPhee to a guy who was on IR before the start of two of those three years is a tad disingenuous. The Redskins were at no point counting on him once the season began because of his injuries.
2. McPhee got 4 sacks last year and Galette got 3 on nearly equivalent snaps (385 for McPhee, 407 for Galette). So, let's not get ahead of ourselves and think that McPhee is going to be some sort of godsend as a pass rushing specialist.
3. How much time is McPhee going to give us since he should be competing for time with Preston Smith and Ryan Anderson?
4. If McPhee does contribute significant snaps, what does that mean for Ryan Anderson considering that McPhee and Smith are both scheduled to be free agents after this season?
5. Murphy was a bust as a 3-4 OLB. I'm glad we finally got that out of our system.

Just now, turtle28 said:

As for the defensive scheme. It works for Wade Phillips when he has the talent. It should work for us now that we have more talent on our defense in the front 7 this year.

1. Do the Redskins have the talent? For the first time in a long while, I can say that this one looks like could in fact be yes.
2. Do the Redskins have Wade Phillips? No? Then why do we keep harping on this point?

[aceinthehouse]

Woz, I believe it for 3 reasons.

1)Alex is coming into this offense & is a conservative QB anyway. Not a gunslinger like Mr. Choke. He's gonna want to put Alex in a position to win games & chew up clock. Not take high risk passes risking the % of turnovers & putting anymore pressure on the defense than there needs to be.

2)He has 3 more than capable rb's to fill roles if necessary, with Guice as his primary guy carrying the major load. He also knows that running to set up the pass will work in his favor, over passing to set up the run. It will also keep games closer & again, not put uneccessary pressure on the defense. It's also what works best for Alex. It also explains us carrying a FB now, or utilizing the FB position more in game plans.

3)Turnovers: I believe this will be a huge reason we go run heavy this year. Turnovers absolutely killed us last, as well as injuries. We can not afford to keep putting ourselves in bad situations by turning the ball over, specially on our own side of the field. It's why Quinn is returning the ball in training camp & not Crowder & why we will run heavy this year as well.

I'm expecting 35 rushes per game average as a team.

20+ for guice

a few for Thompson

a few for Kelly &/or perrine

& even a couple for Alex. (be it roll out runs, bootlegs, pulling the ball down on passes, etc)

 

[aceinthehouse]

And btw

35 rushes X 16 games=560 rushes

It can & will be done.

I think we easily hit 500.

The only way we don't, is if we get down 2 scores often & we are forced to play catch-up by passing often.

And if that happens, you can forget about our Defense being top-10.

Run the ball, play good defense, win games, make playoffs.

It really is that simple! Not to mention running the ball shortens the game anyways.

[Woz]

Just now, aceinthehouse said:

1)Alex is coming into this offense & is a conservative QB anyway. Not a gunslinger like Mr. Choke. He's gonna want to put Alex in a position to win games & chew up clock. Not take high risk passes risking the % of turnovers & putting anymore pressure on the defense than there needs to be.

Except that when he was in Cincinnati with Andy Dalton, Gruden's ratios were 535:455, 540:430, and 587:481. Are you saying that Gruden, who has claimed that Alex Smith is the most intelligent QB he's coached in his career, will be more conservative with 14 year veteran than he was with a rookie QB?

Just now, aceinthehouse said:

2)He has 3 more than capable rb's to fill roles if necessary, with Guice as his primary guy carrying the major load. He also knows that running to set up the pass will work in his favor, over passing to set up the run. It will also keep games closer & again, not put uneccessary pressure on the defense. It's also what works best for Alex. It also explains us carrying a FB now, or utilizing the FB position more in game plans.

When he was in Cincinnati, Gruden had Cedric Benson/Bernard Scott in 2011, BenJarvus Green-Ellis/Cedric Peerman in 2012, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis/Giovani Bernard in 2013. I'm not going to argue that they are better than what we have, but each of those pairs rushed for 1350+ yards in each season. Again, that's with a rookie QB not a long standing veteran.

Just now, aceinthehouse said:

3)Turnovers: I believe this will be a huge reason we go run heavy this year. Turnovers absolutely killed us last, as well as injuries. We can not afford to keep putting ourselves in bad situations by turning the ball over, specially on our own side of the field. It's why Quinn is returning the ball in training camp & not Crowder & why we will run heavy this year as well.

That makes the fallacious assumption that forcing fumbles and preventing fumbles are not skills (recovering fumbles is luck). Not much a QB can do if he hands it off and the ball is knocked loose, or a receiver gets the ball knocked out of his hands after making a catch.

1 minute ago, aceinthehouse said:

I'm expecting 35 rushes per game average as a team.

20+ for guice

a few for Thompson

a few for Kelly &/or perrine

& even a couple for Alex. (be it roll out runs, bootlegs, pulling the ball down on passes, etc)

Only five teams had more than 30 rushing attempts last year:

1. Jacksonville = 32.9
2. Minnesota = 31.3
3. Carolina = 30.6
4. Buffalo = 30.4
5. Dallas = 30.0

 

 

There's also the question of: if they were going to go so run heavy, why would they have given up a 3rd round pick and Kendall Fuller (and given Smith a huge extension) for a job that Colt McCoy or even Kevin Hogan could do?

[Woz]

Just now, aceinthehouse said:

And btw

35 rushes X 16 games=560 rushes

It can & will be done.

I think we easily hit 500.

It's not done that often. Over the past 20 years, only eight teams have rushed for more than 550 attempts: 2001 Steelers, 2003 Ravens, 2004 Steelers, 2008 Ravens, 2008 Falcons, 2009 Jets, 2010 Chiefs, and 2014 Texans.

In fact, whereas there were 51 teams who rushed for 500 attempts from 1998-2007, only 35 have done it from 2008-2017.

The league has moved to a passing league.

[oldman9er]

43 minutes ago, Woz said:

There's also the question of: if they were going to go so run heavy, why would they have given up a 3rd round pick and Kendall Fuller (and given Smith a huge extension) for a job that Colt McCoy or even Kevin Hogan could do?

Maybe you are confusing "pass-happy" and "pass efficient" here.  

Clearly, not all QBs can game-manage the team well enough to help them be a playoff contender. Any fool can go out there and toss the ball up 50 times. I'll take the guy that can more effectively pass 25 times per game while knowing when it is best to hand off the rest of the time. 

 

[Woz]

3 minutes ago, oldman9er said:

Maybe you are confusing "pass-happy" and "pass efficient" here.

Gruden is pass happy. He's the one calling the plays.

3 minutes ago, oldman9er said:

Clearly, not all QBs can game-manage the team well enough to help them be a playoff contender. Any fool can go out there and toss the ball up 50 times. I'll take the guy that can more effectively pass 25 times per game while knowing when it is best to hand off the rest of the time. 

But that's not what we're discussing. We're talking about changing the Redskins offense fundamentally under Jay Gruden and going to an offense that does not really exist in the modern NFL.

[oldman9er]

1 minute ago, Woz said:

Gruden is pass happy. He's the one calling the plays.

But that's not what we're discussing. We're talking about changing the Redskins offense fundamentally under Jay Gruden and going to an offense that does not really exist in the modern NFL.

It just feels like common sense for Jay Gruden. Do you think he is a smart man? He has to know his seat is heating up, right? So, if he wants to keep his job... and looks across his team roster.. and sees a team that can play with balance.. 

would he not put some personal preference aside for team success (and ultimately, his own success) ? 

[turtle28]

49 minutes ago, oldman9er said:

It just feels like common sense for Jay Gruden. Do you think he is a smart man? He has to know his seat is heating up, right? So, if he wants to keep his job... and looks across his team roster.. and sees a team that can play with balance.. 

would he not put some personal preference aside for team success (and ultimately, his own success) ? 

Gruden is former Qb. He talks about running the ball and being balanced in his play calling but really has never been, especially when he has an established qb at his disposal. You can throw out why he should run more and scenarios all you want, I won’t believe it till I see it. Most likely Smith has 540 pass attempts which will translate into over 4000 yards and near 30 TDs.

I think Guice and Thompson combine for near or just over 1500 yards rushing, with Guice getting near or just over 1000 and Thompson getting near or just over 500. Then throw in 300 or 400 from Alex.

[Woz]

13 minutes ago, oldman9er said:

It just feels like common sense for Jay Gruden. Do you think he is a smart man? He has to know his seat is heating up, right? So, if he wants to keep his job... and looks across his team roster.. and sees a team that can play with balance.. 

would he not put some personal preference aside for team success (and ultimately, his own success) ? 

In what world is a pass:run ratio of 35:65 (the actual proposed ratio by ace) qualify as "balanced?"