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Question of the day: Rank the likelihood of these 3?


turtle28

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Just now, turtle28 said:

I think Guice and Thompson combine for near or just over 1500 yards rushing, with Guice getting near or just over 1000 and Thompson getting near or just over 500.

Going to disagree with this. I don't see 500 rushing yards from Thompson. He's going to do most of his damage in flare passes.

Now, if you're saying 1500 yards from scrimmage from the two of them, then I'm more on board with that.

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6 minutes ago, Woz said:

Going to disagree with this. I don't see 500 rushing yards from Thompson. He's going to do most of his damage in flare passes.

Now, if you're saying 1500 yards from scrimmage from the two of them, then I'm more on board with that.

I don’t see his touches changing much from where they were last year. If Thompson had stayed healthy he was going to get 90 to 100 carries, his average is usually around 5 ypc so yeah, near or over 500 yards rushing for Thompson is very possible.

Receiving he’ll probably have 50 receptions for 400 to 500 yards.

Guice will probably have right around 1000 yards rushing and 20 receptions for a 150 yards or so.

So, I’m thinking they’ll get around 2,000 yards from scrimmage between the two of them. Guice should be able to get more yards on the ground with a similar number of attempts as our RBs the last 3 seasons. 

We had 922 rushing yards from our running backs last year, not named Chris Thompson. Those backs averaged 3.5 yards per carry. I think Guice averages at least 1/2 a yard more per carry if not a full yard more per carry.

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50 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

Gruden is former Qb. He talks about running the ball and being balanced in his play calling but really has never been, especially when he has an established qb at his disposal. You can throw out why he should run more and scenarios all you want, I won’t believe it till I see it. Most likely Smith has 540 pass attempts which will translate into over 4000 yards and near 30 TDs.

I think Guice and Thompson combine for near or just over 1500 yards rushing, with Guice getting near or just over 1000 and Thompson getting near or just over 500. Then throw in 300 or 400 from Alex.

Yeah okay cool. I don't really care how they win games, so the yards and carries isn't worth people getting snippy over. (not you.. just not worth arguing over, really) Gruden will do what he'll do, and at least most of us here hope it translates to success. Go Skins. :) 

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On 7/27/2018 at 6:54 PM, turtle28 said:

I don’t see his touches changing much from where they were last year. If Thompson had stayed healthy he was going to get 90 to 100 carries, his average is usually around 5 ypc so yeah, near or over 500 yards rushing for Thompson is very possible.

I think that might have been due to the talent they had in house more than wanting to feed the rock to Thompson. Keep in mind the rumors of trying to keep Byron Marshall/Kapri Bibbs as a backstop against losing Thompson to injury. Kind of implies that they're worried about losing him (which is a fair concern). That might make them a bit more hesitant to put CT in line for more pounding.

At the end of the day, we'll see.

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10 minutes ago, Woz said:

I think that might have been due to the talent they had in house more than wanting to feed the rock to Thompson. Keep in mind the rumors of trying to keep Byron Marshall/Kapri Bibbs as a backstop against losing Thompson to injury. Kind of implies that they're worried about losing him (which is a fair concern). That might make them a bit more hesitant to put CT in line for more pounding.

At the end of the day, we'll see.

I think we need to remember how Thompson was injured. He wasn’t injured due to being overworked or anything like that. He was blocking and a player and someone fell on the back of his leg, it’s a fluke injury that could happen on any play.

I'm a firm believer that you shouldn’t hold your star players back and limit them - if they're health - because you’re scared they “may get hurt” ... “you play to win the game!” Get your best players the ball in the ways that best makes them successful or you’re sure to fail.

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25 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

I think we need to remember how Thompson was injured. He wasn’t injured due to being overworked or anything like that. He was blocking and a player and someone fell on the back of his leg, it’s a fluke injury that could happen on any play.

At the same time, he has a track record of injuries, in no small part due to the fact that he's ... well ... small.

25 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

I'm a firm believer that you shouldn’t hold your star players back and limit them - if they're health - because you’re scared they “may get hurt” ... “you play to win the game!” Get your best players the ball in the ways that best makes them successful or you’re sure to fail.

One thing to say "don't hold them back," it's another to put them in line for 100 carries, especially with a player that has an injury track record and has never carried the ball more than 68 times.

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18 hours ago, Woz said:

At the same time, he has a track record of injuries, in no small part due to the fact that he's ... well ... small.

One thing to say "don't hold them back," it's another to put them in line for 100 carries, especially with a player that has an injury track record and has never carried the ball more than 68 times.

He didn’t carry the ball more than 68 times last year because he broke his leg in week 10. If he plays 16 games like he did in 2016 he would have had 90 plus carries.

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On 7/31/2018 at 1:03 PM, turtle28 said:

He didn’t carry the ball more than 68 times last year because he broke his leg in week 10. If he plays 16 games like he did in 2016 he would have had 90 plus carries.

That would be one year out of six.

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On 8/2/2018 at 11:01 PM, turtle28 said:

17%

Well, yes, that is what 1 in 6 equals if you convert it to a percentage (and round to a whole number). Not great odds, but not bad. Of course, we're dealing with a small sample size so who knows?

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2 hours ago, Woz said:

Well, yes, that is what 1 in 6 equals if you convert it to a percentage (and round to a whole number). Not great odds, but not bad. Of course, we're dealing with a small sample size so who knows?

I do see your point because there’s also the fact that Guice can both be a lead back and possibly/probably be a 3rd down back too. Word is he has better hands than CP & Betts did last decade. 

Also, as I said in the TC thread Thompson has said that his leg is still tender to touch. This means he’s not only not 100% but that he’s also not over his injury mentally. There’s a good chance - and Gruden even said so - that starting the year he’ll be on some sort of a snap count restriction. This is why guys like Byron Marshall or Kapri Bibbs have a chance to make the team over Perine beyond just special teams return abilities.

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