Can You Digg It Sucka (Diggs Signs Extension to Stay a Viking)

[El Ramster]

6 hours ago, vike daddy said:

Cousins: “If he had only one route that jumped out, I don’t think he gets the contract that they offered him. It’s because he can run the entire route tree at a level that would warrant wanting him around. Whether it’s a nine-yard stop route, a double-move, a three-step slant, whether it’s a post, the ability to track the ball, go get the football, play bigger than his frame, he can do just about everything. Great natural hands, good short area quickness and agility, long speed, ability to track the ball in the air very well. He’s a seasoned veteran, understands the game. He’s played in big moments.”

DeFilippo: “Number one is his speed. I think corners in this league have a really hard time knowing that he may run by them on a fade route, so they are going to give him a bit of cushion, which opens up room for quick outs, slants, gives him room to catch and run with the football. He’s strong enough to be able to catch and run with the football, break a tackle and dive into the end zone. So his overall speed and explosiveness is why you see some free access on him in the red zone. I love that guy, he’s exactly what you want in a player — and in my mind, a superstar player. He is smart. He loves football. He’s assignment sound. Coachable. He’s got a lot of energy. Explosive and he catches the football. That describes pretty good receivers in this league.”

http://www.1500espn.com/vikings-2/2018/07/cousins-defilippo-break-makes-stefon-diggs-successful/

 

It’s his own team. Are they suppose to

say he’s cheeks? Dude hasn’t been healthy.

 

[BAConrad]

2 minutes ago, The LBC said:

Man, you are triggered.  You can't go a thread without bringing up the Rams and trying to discredit their window, even though you still (though asked... multiple times, to produce anything credible other than your own opinion to support these claims) continue to push these baseless narratives that Joyner is going to leave next year and that the team isn't working towards locking up Donald.  Desperation is a stinky cologne, dude.  We get it.  You're shook.

Or maybe its Rams fans who get so achy in their rear parts whenever anyone isnt praising their team?

I also talked about the Vikings in length, which you failed to quote, likely because it doesnt fit your narrative that I go out of my way to bash them because Im just soooo scared of them and their On-Paper-Superbowl Winning Roster. 

And I also mentioned the Saints and Packers and talked positively about them. 

Maybe its just that, with their very busy offseason, they are mentioned a lot here, and when Im talking about the top NFC contenders like I just was, I bring them up because *shocker* I think they're a top NFC contender!!!!

I just think that all of their chips are on the table this season, and that if they dont win the SB, it will be viewed internally as a failure year. Sorry if me thinking your team has a very good chance of winning the Superbowl THIS season is such a slight on you. 

[Soko]

5 hours ago, Krauser said:

You have trouble with reading comprehension? 

The first post of my “diatribe” follows the line about Thielen owing his career to the Vikings by describing the extension I predict the Vikings will offer him next year, and in subsequent posts I’ve repeated the same two points:

• Thielen’s career is unusually strongly tied to the Vikings, so (I predict) he won’t hold out
• the Vikings have a pattern of rewarding players who outplay their contracts by offering more guaranteed money and a signing bonus as part of a new extension signed with 2 years remaining on their current deals. (I predict) they will make Thielen that kind of offer next summer, assuming he stays healthy and continues to produce, so he won’t have to hold out to get rewarded — though the structure of that deal will involve adding an extension of however many additional years beyond his existing contract, not ripping up his existing deal and replacing it with a new one, so the effect on the salary cap will be modest (maybe $2M a year or less in prorated signing bonus). 

Goalposts haven’t moved, I’m making the same prediction now as I did initially  

It’s a fairly specific prediction. If I’m wrong, I’ll come back and admit it. 

Nah, your goal posts moved.

As far as “reading comprehension” goes, you may wish to go back and check the piece I quoted you in initially. I don’t care about your prediction about what could happen if the Vikings decide to offer Thielen the contract you think will happen. 

It’s just wishful thinking that Thielen’s blind allegiance to Minnesota will keep him from holding out if the hold out gets him more money. 

You can link it to your prediction if you’d like, doesn’t matter to me. The prediction isn’t the nonsensical part.

[SSG]

22 hours ago, Oregon Ducks said:

Not bad. he's their only WR worth a damn.

He's not even their most productive WR, no where near actually.  As far as catches go, Thielen has been substantially more productive since become starter.

[Krauser]

8 hours ago, The LBC said:

Moreover, "ingenuous" means something different than you seem to think it was.  You might want to actually look up words before using them.  The word you were looking for was "genuine," which no, it wasn't.

LOL, I know what ingenuous means, used to be an English teacher. That phrasing was meant as a joke -- swing and a miss, my bad. 

Disingenuous means insincere, which I wasn't. 

Quote

For another, you continue to ignore the fact that any offer would have had to be an offer that Minnesota would not be willing to match...

NO ONE was getting Adam Thielen at the salary of $2.7m for a 2nd round pick in 2017... 

That's not going to be a $2.7m/yr contract, that's not going to be a $5m/yr contract (because clearly Minnesota had no problem paying him that kind of AAV), that would have been more in the neighborhood of a $10m AAV contract as a floor...

(etc)

I do know how RFA contracts work, thanks. 

I don't mean that another team could've signed Thielen for $2.7M for 2017 alone. I mean that if he'd been offered a more expensive extension than the Vikings ended up giving him, to be tacked on to the existing 2017 RFA deal (as the real-life Thielen extension was 3 years tacked on to his 2017 RFA deal, and Cooks' extension was 5 years tacked on to his 2018 5th year option, etc), the Vikings might not have matched it -- or at least would've had a hard time matching it given their other cap considerations -- and the team who ended up signing Thielen to such a contract (say, an additional $30M/3 beyond the RFA year for a total of ~$32M/4) would've been getting an excellent deal in locking up Thielen at that price, even at the cost of giving up a 2nd round pick. 

You can fairly say that no team would've been willing to offer $32M/4 (or whatever) for Thielen based on his one good year of production at that point in his career...

Quote

 And when you look at what Thielen had produced prior, with no crystal balls to predict the future: One 1000-yard, 5 TD season and otherwise fantastic special teams play, but not much in the way of offensive contributions

...and I agree with you.

But my point is that Thielen was available for such offers, and making an offer for Thielen on those terms would've been a smart move at least in retrospect.

So when Thielen didn't attract a competitive offer -- the Vikings deal was the best and only offer he received -- he might well have felt that the Vikings were the one team who valued him enough at that point in his career to make him an important part of the team. 

Thielen did have the option to turn down the Vikings offer for an extension, play the 2017 RFA deal as a one-year contract and bet on himself to make considerably more as a UFA this spring. I'm sure he knew the opportunity he might be forgoing by taking himself out of the 2018 free agent market. But he did sign the contract they offered, and it seems he was happy to sign it. 

I don't think the psychology of that decision lends itself to a lot of regret on Thielen's part. I don't think he feels the Vikings ripped him off, or are taking advantage of him. I think he feels the team values him more than any other team has. So even though he's outplayed the terms of his current contract, I don't think he'll hold out. 

Obviously that's just my take, but it's sincere, not disingenuous. I've been analyzing the Vikings cap situation and their approach for contracts for several years now, and have made a number of accurate predictions. I'm trying to explain what I think is likely going to happen, not just hoping to save the Vikings money -- argued for instance in 2013 that Griffen was worth paying market rate for as a starting DE (much more than most fans in our forum were willing to pay him), and this spring that Diggs' contract extension would be way more expensive than wishful fans were expecting (see this article I wrote in May, predicting he'd get $76M/5: https://www.dailynorseman.com/2018/5/31/17412434/projecting-stefon-diggs-second-contract ).

Maybe my prediction about Thielen will be completely wrong. We'll see how it goes. But I don't suggest you hold your breath waiting for him to hold out. 

[Krauser]

8 hours ago, Yin-Yang said:

Nah, your goal posts moved.

As far as “reading comprehension” goes, you may wish to go back and check the piece I quoted you in initially. I don’t care about your prediction about what could happen if the Vikings decide to offer Thielen the contract you think will happen. 

It’s just wishful thinking that Thielen’s blind allegiance to Minnesota will keep him from holding out if the hold out gets him more money. 

You can link it to your prediction if you’d like, doesn’t matter to me. The prediction isn’t the nonsensical part.

I've said the same thing throughout. 

Thielen is not going to hold out. (This is a prediction, which will be proven true or false by this time next year)

I think his biography and career path will tend to make him unusually loyal to the Vikings. (This is an interpretation, which you're welcome to disagree with, though note that it's a point about Thielen specifically, not saying the Vikings are some amazing organization that inspires loyalty in general).

The Vikings have been willing to take care of their core players (specifically, Griffen and Joseph) who've significantly outplayed their 2nd contracts by giving them early extensions, so they get a signing bonus up front and remaining money on their existing deals guaranteed, while extra years at market prices are tacked on to the end of the existing deal, effectively as team options. (This is a fact, a relevant precedent which I doubt anyone else on this thread would have brought up if I hadn't, because I know more about the Vikings contract dealings than most people). 

Assuming Thielen continues to outplay his contract (safe assumption if he stays healthy), the Vikings will offer him that kind of extension next summer, which would increase Thielen's 2019 and 2020 cap hits but only modestly. His existing deal won't be torn up and replaced with one at market rates. (This is a prediction, which will be proven true or false by roughly this time next year). 

Given these points, I predict that the Diggs extension won't lead to a dramatic change in the short term cap considerations for Thielen, or a Thielen hold out. (This is a prediction, etc). 

Right or wrong about these predictions, I'll write a follow up post in this thread about a year from now. 

[Vikes_Bolts1228]

I must be in the wrong place, I'm looking for the discussion about the Diggs contract?

Looks like I'm in the "Will Thielen hold out or not" thread.

 

[Krauser]

9 hours ago, BAConrad said:

Definitely see Minnesota and Philly dominating the NFC for years.

The Vikings' core is potentially a contender, but they won't be dominating anything in the NFC until they can play a game in Philly without embarrassing themselves. 

21-3 in the 4th quarter in 2016. 38-7 in the 4th quarter in the NFCCG. Favored on the road twice, blown out twice. 

Wouldn't put the Vikings on the same level as the Eagles unless they can win week 5 this year, or at least make a game of it.  

[frenchie]

So Adam Thielen has thoroughly outplayed Diggs the last few years, yet Thielen makes less than $5 million/yr. and Diggs makes $14 million/yr.

If I were Adam Thielen, I'd be knocking on some doors right about now...

[Art_Vandalay]

6 hours ago, frenchie said:

If I were Adam Thielen, I'd be knocking on some doors right about now...

Seriously though... he's going to average a little over 3 mil over the next couple of years. If he has another great year, he absolutely has to hold out. You gotta imagine they'll take care of Barr first though. It's a tough situation.

[TENINCH]

On 8/1/2018 at 3:05 PM, El ramster said:

It’s his own team. Are they suppose to

say he’s cheeks? Dude hasn’t been healthy.

 

Never missed more than 3 games in a season. Got to 200 receptions faster than Moss. Has never lost to the Rams. I'd say he more than earned his money.

[Krauser]

On 2018-07-31 at 7:08 PM, The LBC said:

[Thielen] is locked up in theory, but his guarantees run out after this year.  If he even holds the same trajectory from last season into this season, you had best believe his agent will have him holding out for an extension and more money in 2019, especially since Diggs just got this fat contract.  He's 27 right now, he'll be 31 when his current deal expires after 2020 - a guy putting up back-to-back 1000 yard (967 in 2016 was close enough) seasons in his mid-20's is not going to be content pulling down a sub-$5M AAV in the current market.

 

On 2018-07-31 at 8:06 PM, Krauser said:

Thielen had a guaranteed one-year RFA deal last year for $2.9M. He asked for the extension he signed, which just starts this year, and runs through 2020. 

He owes his career to the Vikings: he was a walk-on tryout, not even a regular UDFA signing. He's not going to hold out. 

The Vikings last year extended Griffen and Joseph with 2 years remaining on their 2014 contracts, guaranteeing them the remaining money and adding a signing bonus paid up front, while tacking on 4 more years at market rate. Thielen will likely get the same kind of offer. They won't tear up his deal as written, they never do -- all extensions have been added to the end of existing deals, as Diggs' was today. 

Taking that approach, Thielen could get offered something like $58M/4 in new money starting in 2021, with that offer being made in the summer of 2019. They would offer to guarantee the remaining money for the last 2 years of his current deal -- something like $9M guaranteed over 2019 and 2020. For new money, there'd be a signing bonus payable immediately, say $10M (reason enough not to hold out), and then salaries of $48M covering the 4 years from 2021-24. Thielen's current cap numbers would go up by $2M (adding the prorated signing bonus from the extension) for 2019 and 2020. He'd have $6M in dead cap money (what's left of the prorated signing bonus) remaining in 2021, the year he turns 31, so the $48M in salaries would be easy to restructure if and when his production falls off with age. 

 

On 2018-08-01 at 1:00 AM, Yin-Yang said:

Sure, if he gets that offer. Which isn’t really a guarantee for a team that has as many guys on the payroll as the Vikings do. 

Thielen holding out for a deal makes a lot of sense before he turns 30.

 

On 2018-08-01 at 1:09 AM, Krauser said:

If he continues to outplay his current contract, he’ll get that offer. 

If he holds out next year, I’ll come back to this thread and tip my cap to you. 

 

On 2018-08-01 at 1:27 PM, Yin-Yang said:

I don’t care about your prediction about what could happen if the Vikings decide to offer Thielen the contract you think will happen. 

It’s just wishful thinking that Thielen’s blind allegiance to Minnesota will keep him from holding out if the hold out gets him more money. 

 

On 2018-08-01 at 9:16 PM, Krauser said:

I've said the same thing throughout. 

Thielen is not going to hold out. (This is a prediction, which will be proven true or false by this time next year)

I think his biography and career path will tend to make him unusually loyal to the Vikings. (This is an interpretation, which you're welcome to disagree with, though note that it's a point about Thielen specifically, not saying the Vikings are some amazing organization that inspires loyalty in general).

The Vikings have been willing to take care of their core players (specifically, Griffen and Joseph) who've significantly outplayed their 2nd contracts by giving them early extensions, so they get a signing bonus up front and remaining money on their existing deals guaranteed, while extra years at market prices are tacked on to the end of the existing deal, effectively as team options. (This is a fact, a relevant precedent which I doubt anyone else on this thread would have brought up if I hadn't, because I know more about the Vikings contract dealings than most people). 

Assuming Thielen continues to outplay his contract (safe assumption if he stays healthy), the Vikings will offer him that kind of extension next summer, which would increase Thielen's 2019 and 2020 cap hits but only modestly. His existing deal won't be torn up and replaced with one at market rates. (This is a prediction, which will be proven true or false by roughly this time next year). 

Given these points, I predict that the Diggs extension won't lead to a dramatic change in the short term cap considerations for Thielen, or a Thielen hold out. (This is a prediction, etc). 

Right or wrong about these predictions, I'll write a follow up post in this thread about a year from now. 

Few months ahead of schedule, time to review: 

"Thielen could get offered something like $58M/4 in new money starting in 2021, with that offer being made in the summer of 2019."
"Assuming Thielen continues to outplay his contract (safe assumption if he stays healthy), the Vikings will offer him that kind of extension next summer, which would increase Thielen's 2019 and 2020 cap hits but only modestly. His existing deal won't be torn up and replaced with one at market rates."

Thielen did stay healthy and continued to outplay his contract in 2018, putting up 113 receptions for 1373 yards and 9 TDs, and being named a Pro Bowl starter at WR.

The Vikings did offer him an extension of an additional 4 years beyond the remaining 2 on his existing deal, without tearing up the existing deal. The price came in a little higher than I suggested here ($64M not $56M). The contract was signed a couple months earlier than I expected, possibly since they need to sort out their cap crunch before the draft. Thielen's cap number changed hardly at all in the short term (an extra $5000 this year): http://www.startribune.com/how-adam-thielen-s-new-deal-does-little-damage-to-vikings-salary-cap-situation/508608322/

"Thielen is not going to hold out... I think his biography and career path will tend to make him unusually loyal to the Vikings."

From Vikings beat reporter Chris Tomasson's account of the contract negotiations: https://www.twincities.com/2019/04/12/vikings-wr-adam-thielen-agrees-to-four-year-64-million-extension/

Quote

 

The Vikings got the deal done three days before Monday’s start of offseason workouts. However, [Thielen's agent] Baratz had told SKOR North radio in February there was no risk of Thielen not reporting if a deal wasn’t done before workouts began. 

“Adam’s not that type of person,” Baratz said then. “I would never condone a player to hold out or be disruptive if it wasn’t for a very valid reason, and (what’s not) a valid reason, to me, is both sides working in good faith to come to a conclusion that makes sense for everybody.”

 

"Given these points, I predict that the Diggs extension won't lead to a dramatic change in the short term cap considerations for Thielen, or a Thielen hold out."

Exactly.

[RuskieTitan]

On 4/15/2019 at 4:36 PM, Krauser said:

Few months ahead of schedule, time to review: 

"Thielen could get offered something like $58M/4 in new money starting in 2021, with that offer being made in the summer of 2019."
"Assuming Thielen continues to outplay his contract (safe assumption if he stays healthy), the Vikings will offer him that kind of extension next summer, which would increase Thielen's 2019 and 2020 cap hits but only modestly. His existing deal won't be torn up and replaced with one at market rates."

Thielen did stay healthy and continued to outplay his contract in 2018, putting up 113 receptions for 1373 yards and 9 TDs, and being named a Pro Bowl starter at WR.

The Vikings did offer him an extension of an additional 4 years beyond the remaining 2 on his existing deal, without tearing up the existing deal. The price came in a little higher than I suggested here ($64M not $56M). The contract was signed a couple months earlier than I expected, possibly since they need to sort out their cap crunch before the draft. Thielen's cap number changed hardly at all in the short term (an extra $5000 this year): http://www.startribune.com/how-adam-thielen-s-new-deal-does-little-damage-to-vikings-salary-cap-situation/508608322/

"Thielen is not going to hold out... I think his biography and career path will tend to make him unusually loyal to the Vikings."

From Vikings beat reporter Chris Tomasson's account of the contract negotiations: https://www.twincities.com/2019/04/12/vikings-wr-adam-thielen-agrees-to-four-year-64-million-extension/

"Given these points, I predict that the Diggs extension won't lead to a dramatic change in the short term cap considerations for Thielen, or a Thielen hold out."

Exactly.

You sir know your Vikings. Good call.

[Soko]

1 hour ago, Krauser said:

 

 

 

 

 

Few months ahead of schedule, time to review: 

"Thielen could get offered something like $58M/4 in new money starting in 2021, with that offer being made in the summer of 2019."
"Assuming Thielen continues to outplay his contract (safe assumption if he stays healthy), the Vikings will offer him that kind of extension next summer, which would increase Thielen's 2019 and 2020 cap hits but only modestly. His existing deal won't be torn up and replaced with one at market rates."

Thielen did stay healthy and continued to outplay his contract in 2018, putting up 113 receptions for 1373 yards and 9 TDs, and being named a Pro Bowl starter at WR.

The Vikings did offer him an extension of an additional 4 years beyond the remaining 2 on his existing deal, without tearing up the existing deal. The price came in a little higher than I suggested here ($64M not $56M). The contract was signed a couple months earlier than I expected, possibly since they need to sort out their cap crunch before the draft. Thielen's cap number changed hardly at all in the short term (an extra $5000 this year): http://www.startribune.com/how-adam-thielen-s-new-deal-does-little-damage-to-vikings-salary-cap-situation/508608322/

"Thielen is not going to hold out... I think his biography and career path will tend to make him unusually loyal to the Vikings."

From Vikings beat reporter Chris Tomasson's account of the contract negotiations: https://www.twincities.com/2019/04/12/vikings-wr-adam-thielen-agrees-to-four-year-64-million-extension/

"Given these points, I predict that the Diggs extension won't lead to a dramatic change in the short term cap considerations for Thielen, or a Thielen hold out."

Exactly.

Congrats, good sir.

[footbull3196]

@Krauser you were right, but I think he would have held out if the Vikings hadn’t offered him the extension because he definitely earned the leverage for it this past season.  It made too much sense for both sides to not get it done though