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JaguarCrazy2832

4 Fantasy Football Questions: Please Help

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Hello KC Fans,

I am going forum to forum to ask 3 questions and also looking for any information/insight you have to offer about your beloved team and will have each thread linked in the fantasy football forum as a way for everyone to help everyone(ET already cleared me doing this)

1. Patrick Mahomes is your new QB and he has a ton of potential to do things with that cannon of an arm. He has some steep expectations of 4100, 22-15 in his "rookie" season. Is that pretty much the ceiling or do you think he could be closer to 28 TDs and why?  

2. Kareem Hunt burst on to the scene and now that he is considered a Top-5 RB in upcoming drafts people are concerned he is being overdrafted. Is his 1800 yards and 11 TDs from last year really too much to ask for or do you think he can be even better?

3. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are both being drafted in about the same spot. Do you expect progression/recession for them this year?

4. Who are the over/underrated fantasy players you would like to call out and what do you expect of them statistically?

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Hello KC Fans,

I am going forum to forum to ask 3 questions and also looking for any information/insight you have to offer about your beloved team and will have each thread linked in the fantasy football forum as a way for everyone to help everyone(ET already cleared me doing this)

1. Patrick Mahomes is your new QB and he has a ton of potential to do things with that cannon of an arm. He has some steep expectations of 4100, 22-15 in his "rookie" season. Is that pretty much the ceiling or do you think he could be closer to 28 TDs and why?  

That's anyone's guess. No clue where the numbers come from. I'd expect numbers similar to Smith's final year in KC, however, a significantly higher number of INTs.

2. Kareem Hunt burst on to the scene and now that he is considered a Top-5 RB in upcoming drafts people are concerned he is being overdrafted. Is his 1800 yards and 11 TDs from last year really too much to ask for or do you think he can be even better?

I don't think he'll see the same workload. For one the Chiefs are deeper at RB, on the other hand they have more weapons at WR (see below).

3. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are both being drafted in about the same spot. Do you expect progression/recession for them this year?

Hill and Kelce were the only true receiving options last year, Wilson was a distant #3. Now they have Conley back from injury and brought in Watkins. That gives them FOUR legit receiving options (plus a few like Chesson, Robinson, Harris). Thus I expect them to spread out the targets a bit more while going more pass heavy (unless Mahomes tanks). Bottom line: I don't think they'll match last year's numbers individually, but as a group they may even go beyond (which might be good for Mahomes, question one).

4. Who are the over/underrated fantasy players you would like to call out and what do you expect of them statistically?

Overrated: Harrison Buttker. I don't think he'll have anywhere close to as many attempts as he had last year.
Underrated: Sammy Watkins. With Hill and Kelce drawing a lot of attention (and a competent #3 WR on the field) he may see way more 1-on-1 coverage than he's used to. Would not be surprised if he ends up with the most yards of the three.

 

Edited by KC_Guy

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Some more points.

  • Do not consider this a rookie season for Mahomes. He has a year in-house to learn the system and the personnel. 28 TD is quite possible. As noted expect more INT than Smith had.
  • Everyone expects RB production to decline in a spread offense. Historically, that has not been the case. However, no one I have seen rates Hunt top 5 among RB, usually 6th-8th. That's about right.
  • All that said, there will be significant changes in the playbook and mindset of the offense. Expect hiccups. Expect a 5 TD game from Mahomes, but also a 3 INT game or two.
  • Kelce is the best TE in the NFL. Apologies to Gronk, but times change. Hill is only one of the top 10 WR and Watkins will get some of the targets. 
  • Don't neglect Hunt and the other RB as receiving threats. Hunt might catch 60 this year. That's value, especially in ppr.
  • I do not think that Buttker is overrated. He should be one of the top 5 K and is. Watkins is probably underrated, but I have seen him rated close to Hill so not always. 
  • If you get extra points for long plays, this is your team.

J

 

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12 hours ago, onejayhawk said:

Some more points.

  • I do not think that Buttker is overrated. He should be one of the top 5 K and is. Watkins is probably underrated, but I have seen him rated close to Hill so not always. 

J

I don't think he's overrated as a kicker but his fantasy value may be overrated.

Last year a lot of good drives stalled within his range. This year I expect more of them  to either end with a TD (ONE Buttker fantasy point instead of THREE) or with an INT (ZERO points). I don't think his FGM percentage will drop significantly, but with less opportunities to kick it he probably will not repeat last season's score.

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