4 Fantasy Football Questions: Please Help

[JaguarCrazy2832]

Hello Rams Fans,

I am going forum to forum to ask 3 questions and also looking for any information/insight you have to offer about your beloved team and will have each thread linked in the fantasy football forum as a way for everyone to help everyone(ET already cleared me doing this)

1. The Rams have one of the best young WR trios but Brandin Cooks appears to be the best of the group. Do the Rams have too many weapons for him to get to his 3 year average of 1100 yards and 8 TDs?

2. Jared Goff had a phenomenal 2nd year in the NFL throwing for 28 TDs and just 7 INTs and while I expect the ratio to decrease, i also expect his TD totals to increase as well. Do you guys expect him to increase his TD totals to ~33 or will you be too far ahead late in games to throw it often?

3. Who is the better WR to own? Robert Woods or Cooper Kupp? And why?

4. Who are the over/underrated fantasy players you would like to call out and what do you expect of them statistically?

[jrry32]

1. With how our offense spreads the ball, it'll be hard to match those numbers.

2. Hard to guess on TD totals. McVay likes to hand the ball off to Gurley in the red-zone.

3. I'd lean towards Kupp, but it's hard to know with how McVay spreads it around. But I think Kupp and Goff have strong chemistry that'll translate into red-zone looks.

4. Greg Zuerlein is underrated.

[Dr LBC]

^^^ What he said.  Cooks and the role Cooks is likely to play in the offense is certainly capable of meeting or beating those numbers, but... it's going to depend on a fair number of big plays that are just plain too hard to predict.  I don't mind Cooks at his current ADP (I'd prefer to pass on him there and see if he comes back around in the subsequent round), but I don't love him either.

I agree I can see some improvement in his TD totals, but that's largely more because I expect him to throw more often than he did last season (his efficiency numbers were insane given a lower number of attempts than I think a lot of people were aware of), but I'm not expecting a massive spike.  For that reason, i don't mind him as a streaming QB option if you're going to wait on drafting a QB till later in your draft (my preferred approach), but typically you're going to find someone with more weekly upside at that point too.  He's someone I'm more content to monitor as the season progresses and if he starts out hot, I'm fine with making a speculative pickup, but for guys you can get late, you're probably going to get better on-the-season contributions out of guys like Ben, Rivers, Ryan (he's a positive-regression candidate this year, IMO), and Mariota (combo of LaFleur and an emergent Corey Davis).

Someone's going to step up to take a majority of the red-zone targets that went to Watkins (I say majority because I expect some of those opportunities to go to Gurley), the question is whether it'll be Kupp, Woods, Gerald Everett, or Tyler Higbee.  I'd hedge my bets on Kupp then Everett then Woods then Higbee (who I think could still end up be a decent streamer in PPR leagues).  Kupp is more likely to get those routes that Watkins was winning on to receive that ball just shy of the goal-line and Everett is probably going to get the targets in (or specifically, in the back of) the end-zone.

[stl4life07]

2 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Hello Rams Fans,

I am going forum to forum to ask 3 questions and also looking for any information/insight you have to offer about your beloved team and will have each thread linked in the fantasy football forum as a way for everyone to help everyone(ET already cleared me doing this)

1. The Rams have one of the best young WR trios but Brandin Cooks appears to be the best of the group. Do the Rams have too many weapons for him to get to his 3 year average of 1100 yards and 8 TDs?

2. Jared Goff had a phenomenal 2nd year in the NFL throwing for 28 TDs and just 7 INTs and while I expect the ratio to decrease, i also expect his TD totals to increase as well. Do you guys expect him to increase his TD totals to ~33 or will you be too far ahead late in games to throw it often?

3. Who is the better WR to own? Robert Woods or Cooper Kupp? And why?

4. Who are the over/underrated fantasy players you would like to call out and what do you expect of them statistically?

1. I think Cooks will once again get 1000yds and 7tds. People look at the weapons and assume he wont get. When he was with the Saints in 2015 they had Snead (69/984/3), Watson (74/825/6) and Ingram (216 touches/1174yds from scrimmage/6 total tds caught 50 balls) and Cooks still was a top 10 receiver in fantasy. In 2016 the Saints had Thomas (92/1172/9), Fleener (50/631/3), and Ingram (251 touches/1492yds from scrimmage/10 total tds caught 46 balls) and Cooks was a top receiver in fantasy. So what I am saying is a good to great offense doesnt need volume. Plus a good to great offense can support more players enough. The Saints last year had two top 10 backs and a top 10 receiver in fantasy. So if the Rams are a great offense which we all think they are, Cooks will be a top 15 receiver in fantasy while still having Gurley as a top 5 back and I believe Kupp will be a top 20 receiver. So draft Cooks with confidence. Most are sleeping on him so he will fall and you be there to draft him and get one hell of a steal.

2. I expect Goff tds to increase. He had 28tds last year despite not playing Week 17 and also Kupp only had 5 tds despite being top 3 in the NFL in redzone targets. I expect Kupp to get at least 10 tds, Cooks will get at least 7. We know Woods and Gurley will get some receiving tds and watch for Everett, Higbee, and Hemmingway. I think the tight end position will get more production this year. So Goff will get at least 35 tds. Remember, Wentz had his monster year in his second season in Peterson offense. Goff will be in his second season in McVay offense. Goff is poised to have a big season. The defense will be better which will give the Rams more offensive possessions and more short fields. Goff is going to be even better this upcoming season.

3. Kupp is the receiver to own between him and Woods. As I mentioned, Kupp was 3rd in the NFL in redzone targets. The Rams lost Watkins who led the team in receiving tds. Its possible Kupp will get even more looks in the redzone. I dont believe Kupp will again only catch 5 tds. He was inside the top 30 despite only having 5 tds. I think he will have at least 10 tds which will push him into the top 20. Woods will be outside the top 30. Obviously I think Cooks will be top 15. So the safe guy to own between Kupp and Woods is Kupp because of the td potential.

4. Again I think Goff is going to be a top 10 QB. He finished like 12pts shy of QB8 last year. He didnt play Week 17. Had he played Week 17 and gotten his average which I believe was 15ppg, he wouldve been the QB8. So I expect Goff to be a top 10 QB with upside to have a top 5 season. Also keep your eye out for either Everett or Higbee. One of those tight ends is going to breakout and it wouldnt shock me if one of those guys finish as a top 12 tight end. We have to realize in order to be a top 12 tight end these days all you need to do is catch a bunch of tds. Again the Rams lost Watkins who was a redzone target outside of Kupp. So those targets have to go somewhere other than to Kupp. I think the tight ends will benefit. 

. 

[chris00cm]

1. I wouldn't buy Cooks unless you are in a best ball league. Cooks will explode some weeks... predicting when is impossible.

2. Sell Jared Goff. I am not buying him at his draft rate. He was very efficient last season (much like the Rams offense) and is due for some negative regression.

3. Robert Woods over any Rams receiver. Simply a better player in a more prominent role.

4. I am not drafting any Rams players except Gerald Everett as a late round sleeper. As mentioned before the Rams offense is due for some negative regression, and people are buying high on their efficient season. Now is the best time to sell your Rams assets in keepers (including Gurley). 

[StLunatic88]

12 hours ago, chris00cm said:

2. Sell Jared Goff. I am not buying him at his draft rate. He was very efficient last season (much like the Rams offense) and is due for some negative regression.

Youre not buying him as like the 15th QB taken? In the 115-140 range? Thats exactly where he should be going, if not too low. Its not like people are putting him in the group right with Rodgers and Brady while coming off a massive injury (Watson) He is a high upside backup QB right now, which is exactly what he should be. At worst you throw him in for the bye week, at best we grow as an offense ad you have a Top 10 QB  in a prolific system as your backup.

12 hours ago, chris00cm said:

3. Robert Woods over any Rams receiver. Simply a better player in a more prominent role.

Robert Woods is the "Better player"? I really like Woods, and was out front for him all last offseason, but he is not the better talent when compared to Cooks, and to say he is the better player is a real stretch. Not to mention there is a world where Kupp passes him this season.

12 hours ago, chris00cm said:

4. I am not drafting any Rams players except Gerald Everett as a late round sleeper. As mentioned before the Rams offense is due for some negative regression, and people are buying high on their efficient season. Now is the best time to sell your Rams assets in keepers (including Gurley). 

Or, second year in a system, with better weapons (Cooks replacing Watkins, Everett in a more prominent role, etc.) you could see even more growth. TO say this Offense will regress says either you dont think McVay is as good of a coach that we saw last season, or that Goff isnt as good of a QB as we saw last season. I dont believe either of those to be true. 

I will agree that Gurley is in for a regression, likely less TDs, because thats what happens to the leading TD scorers (19 this year is unlikely, probably looking like the 10-12 area). But that means more Passing TDs, which is what people are projecting with the Sleeper pick of Goff.

[jrry32]

Yea, if Sean McVay can take a team from #32 to #1 in his first year, I'm not worried about our offense falling off greatly. We have more talent, better depth, and more experience. We may not finish #1 again, but I think our overall offensive output won't change much.

[StLunatic88]

Just now, jrry32 said:

Yea, if Sean McVay can take a team from #32 to #1 in his first year, I'm not worried about our offense falling off greatly. We have more talent, better depth, and more experience. We may not finish #1 again, but I think our overall offensive output won't change much.

If anything I would expect a more consistent output from week to week. Maybe we dont see the 5 games of 40+ points. But I also wouldnt expect to see any of the clunkers either (10pts vs SEA, 7pts vs MIN,even the 20pts vs WAS).

[chris00cm]

11 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

Youre not buying him as like the 15th QB taken? In the 115-140 range? Thats exactly where he should be going, if not too low. Its not like people are putting him in the group right with Rodgers and Brady while coming off a massive injury (Watson) He is a high upside backup QB right now, which is exactly what he should be. At worst you throw him in for the bye week, at best we grow as an offense ad you have a Top 10 QB  in a prolific system as your backup.

I see Mariota, Rivers, and Mahomes going after Goff. I'd take them for fantasy purposes in a heartbeat.

11 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

Robert Woods is the "Better player"? I really like Woods, and was out front for him all last offseason, but he is not the better talent when compared to Cooks, and to say he is the better player is a real stretch. Not to mention there is a world where Kupp passes him this season.

Fair enough. Obviously I think Cooks is a better player. What I really meant was better value.