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Bears could be interested in trading too much for Khalil Mack


cooters22

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Just now, cooters22 said:

What is your top five?

In no particular order:

Brees, Rodgers, Gurley, Matt Ryan, Zeke.

 

I think this is the year of the QB for fantasy as I see few RB's that are worth being your RB1 and I don't trust a lot of the stud WR's this year like Julio and AJ Green. I think Hopkins will have a better year.

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I love Mack. Not sure what I’d give for him. I’d be hesitant to give up more than a second due to the money ball aspect of the game. There is value in drafting a starter getting paid on a rookie deal 4-5 years. Mack at 20M+ a year would have to be a DPOY candidate to be worth it.

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12 hours ago, cooters22 said:

You are clearly missing the fact that Mack is one of best defensive players in football and Earl Thomas is just a good football player. Of the two, Mack has the potential to put you over the top. 

Earl Thomas isn't one of the best defensive players in football? heh

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2 hours ago, pacman5252 said:

I love Mack. Not sure what I’d give for him. I’d be hesitant to give up more than a second due to the money ball aspect of the game. There is value in drafting a starter getting paid on a rookie deal 4-5 years. Mack at 20M+ a year would have to be a DPOY candidate to be worth it.

.....he is a DPOY candidate 

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2 minutes ago, Gopackgonerd said:

I just have a hard time believing the Raiders wont find a way to keep him

Of course. They totally want him to be a Raider. Who wouldn't ?

But here we are.

Its only when you reach an impossible impasse that you consider deploying the BATNA option that your bean- counters conjured up. You take the asset and trade it for maximum remuneration, which gets you to your Big Picture goal of a playoff team.... when you arrive at the new stadium in Las Vegas

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Best_alternative_to_a_negotiated_agreement

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9 hours ago, persiandud said:

.....he is a DPOY candidate 

He is now, but will he be in 3 years, and what is the amount of guaranteed cash involved? The guy wants franchise QB money.

Here is the capologist moneyball logic;

If you hit on a second round pick (just a average starter, which is probably around a 60% bet), year 3 you have a guy with 2 years being in a plus contract situation (worth 7-8 conservatively, if hes a stud, could be much more) making 1.5M. Even if that second is just a backup, you are probably breaking even. If you completely whiff on a second round pick and you cut him year 3, you are out like 1M a year signing bonus. If you have enough guys on plus deals like this, you can always find a FA to bring in.

For Mack, for him to even just be worth it on a season by season basis, he'd need to put up 15 sacks a year and be in the DPOY conversation every year. He right now is talented enough, but factor in injuries, natural age regression, there is a decent percent chance (probably greater than 50%) he is not a top 5 pass rusher in 3 years. All of a sudden his contract is a huge liability (making 20M worth 5-10).

The analytics from a cap standpoint say trading for Mack would be really dumb.Let's not even get that he's a position player and probably only worth a point.

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12 hours ago, pacman5252 said:

I love Mack. Not sure what I’d give for him. I’d be hesitant to give up more than a second due to the money ball aspect of the game. There is value in drafting a starter getting paid on a rookie deal 4-5 years. Mack at 20M+ a year would have to be a DPOY candidate to be worth it.

Which he is. Already won it once. 

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