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soflbillsfan

Khalil Mack

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Im not usually one to post about going out and overspending for a guy but for some reason I kind of want the bills to do whatever it takes to get him in Buffalo. Can Beane correct the wrong whaley made when selecting Watkins over Mack? Can Beane bring Mack back to Buffalo where he has been training at the University? With the constant and growing rumors gruden is looking to move on from him I would love for it to be with Buffalo. If you look at what the bills have they have Hughes which seems to be declining and will be easy to get out of his contract next year, Murphy who was just signed coming off a major injury and his contract is essentially 1 year as they can get out of the last 2 years free and clear. Finally shaq lawson who has some people thinking hes a colossal bust. So the bills really do not have a future pass rusher. Bills have the cap space to pay him a big contract as they will have the 2nd most cap space in the league. Pair him up with the likes of Star, Williams, Phillips in the front with Edmunds backing him and the top tier DBs the defense can be a force to wreck with. I know it will cost them a ton of money but it just seems like he is one of those guys who wants to win and not sit back and collect a pay check like dareus haynesworth etc. My guess a 2nd rd pick (because it involves a big pay check for example Jarvis Landry) and a player maybe a pass rusher they can take a flier on with little consequence. What are your guys thoughts on hoping he is a Bill?

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He'll cost at least a 1st and 2nd round next year and then a brand new contract. 

I'm not against it. But I'm not really rooting for it either. Especially with guys like Bosa, Ferrell, Davis, and Joe Jackson all considered first round prospects as of right now.

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40 minutes ago, Trentwannabe said:

He'll cost at least a 1st and 2nd round next year and then a brand new contract. 

I'm not against it. But I'm not really rooting for it either. Especially with guys like Bosa, Ferrell, Davis, and Joe Jackson all considered first round prospects as of right now.

Everyone thinks it will cost much but honestly Oakland has zero leverage because the size of the contract. Just like the dolphins had with Landry. Oakland cant afford to pay him if they could then they would have already I think Khalil will be moved for far less than a 1st round pick but I could be wrong.

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On 8/8/2018 at 7:34 PM, soflbillsfan said:

Everyone thinks it will cost much but honestly Oakland has zero leverage because the size of the contract. Just like the dolphins had with Landry. Oakland cant afford to pay him if they could then they would have already I think Khalil will be moved for far less than a 1st round pick but I could be wrong.

You are.

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1 minute ago, RaidersAreOne said:

You are.

We will see what the raiders get if they do trade him but when was the last time a player who was seeking top money in the league that same team get a 1st round pick that was non qb? Jarvis Landry is the most recent reason why teams aren't getting top picks for guys because a 1st round pick with the new cba pay structure is well worth more then paying a guy 20+ mil a year plus giving up a top pick in the draft. Only 2 teams  realistically will have the funds for 2019 and possible need for a pass rusher and that is the Bills and Jets. Cincy and Indy may look to do that but that would strap them with cap space. 

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9 hours ago, soflbillsfan said:

We will see what the raiders get if they do trade him but when was the last time a player who was seeking top money in the league that same team get a 1st round pick that was non qb? Jarvis Landry is the most recent reason why teams aren't getting top picks for guys because a 1st round pick with the new cba pay structure is well worth more then paying a guy 20+ mil a year plus giving up a top pick in the draft. Only 2 teams  realistically will have the funds for 2019 and possible need for a pass rusher and that is the Bills and Jets. Cincy and Indy may look to do that but that would strap them with cap space. 

Productive slot receivers are nice. 

Elite pass rushers are a whole other animal. 

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10 hours ago, soflbillsfan said:

We will see what the raiders get if they do trade him but when was the last time a player who was seeking top money in the league that same team get a 1st round pick that was non qb? Jarvis Landry is the most recent reason why teams aren't getting top picks for guys because a 1st round pick with the new cba pay structure is well worth more then paying a guy 20+ mil a year plus giving up a top pick in the draft. Only 2 teams  realistically will have the funds for 2019 and possible need for a pass rusher and that is the Bills and Jets. Cincy and Indy may look to do that but that would strap them with cap space. 

It doesn't happen often, but easy enough to remember the most comparable: Jared Allen. He got a first, two thirds and a swap of later picks. The rookie wage scale may have an adverse impact on what teams do there, but I'm not so sure about that either. We have seen teams pony up a first round pick for Trent Richardson (Colts), Percy Harvin (Seahawks), Brandin Cooks 2x (Pats, Rams), Revis (tampa) all traded for first round picks since the wage scale came into play. Maybe more than I'm  remembering. So while teams may be slightly more reticent to part with first round picks, they won't be for the right player, which includes a former defensive player of the year elite edge rusher in his prime. 

Also, not sure where you are getting your teams - both the Bears and 49ers also could afford him quite easily along with a dire need at edge rusher. I'm not sure how Indy would be strapped for cash - they will have over 100 million next year. The bengals will have about 80 million. There are quite a few teams that have the money and the need. 

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On 8/10/2018 at 8:02 PM, Forge said:

It doesn't happen often, but easy enough to remember the most comparable: Jared Allen. He got a first, two thirds and a swap of later picks. The rookie wage scale may have an adverse impact on what teams do there, but I'm not so sure about that either. We have seen teams pony up a first round pick for Trent Richardson (Colts), Percy Harvin (Seahawks), Brandin Cooks 2x (Pats, Rams), Revis (tampa) all traded for first round picks since the wage scale came into play. Maybe more than I'm  remembering. So while teams may be slightly more reticent to part with first round picks, they won't be for the right player, which includes a former defensive player of the year elite edge rusher in his prime. 

Also, not sure where you are getting your teams - both the Bears and 49ers also could afford him quite easily along with a dire need at edge rusher. I'm not sure how Indy would be strapped for cash - they will have over 100 million next year. The bengals will have about 80 million. There are quite a few teams that have the money and the need. 

Not sure where your getting the numbers but I am basing it off of spotrac.com obviously things do change but niners are projected to have 17 mil in cap space next year and bears are expected to have 37 mil but have 47 players under contract at that time. I also see Indy with 57 mil next season, where did you get 100 mil for them? I agree some have gone higher but your naming guys who arent looking to make 22 mil a year. I think Revis got an expensive contract from Tampa but Cooks was on his rookie wage when the pats traded for him and then on the 5th year with cooks which he then got his extension but way less than what mack is seeking. There may be a market for pass rushers especially top tier but the risk of trading and then paying him the most money in the league that is a non qb is a huge gamble on top of losing a top pick. With the projections already so low on the bills and jets season the risk of giving up a 1st round pick for him is huge as they could easily be top 5 or top 10 picks. Indy is also a risk because they may need that pick for a qb if luck cant stay healthy. Bears and Niners would be in a decent spot to risk it. If the bills didnt have needs or question marks at oline and wr I would be all for giving them a 1st round pick. If they could part ways with a player or two plus a pick I wouldnt mind that but I just dont see who the raiders would be looking at in the situation. I also dont think Beane will be looking to add someone like Mack after taking 18 months to get the cap in order but a fan can dream. It will be interesting to see what happens to mack and donald.

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6 minutes ago, soflbillsfan said:

Not sure where your getting the numbers but I am basing it off of spotrac.com obviously things do change but niners are projected to have 17 mil in cap space next year and bears are expected to have 37 mil but have 47 players under contract at that time. I also see Indy with 57 mil next season, where did you get 100 mil for them? I agree some have gone higher but your naming guys who arent looking to make 22 mil a year. I think Revis got an expensive contract from Tampa but Cooks was on his rookie wage when the pats traded for him and then on the 5th year with cooks which he then got his extension but way less than what mack is seeking. There may be a market for pass rushers especially top tier but the risk of trading and then paying him the most money in the league that is a non qb is a huge gamble on top of losing a top pick. With the projections already so low on the bills and jets season the risk of giving up a 1st round pick for him is huge as they could easily be top 5 or top 10 picks. Indy is also a risk because they may need that pick for a qb if luck cant stay healthy. Bears and Niners would be in a decent spot to risk it. If the bills didnt have needs or question marks at oline and wr I would be all for giving them a 1st round pick. If they could part ways with a player or two plus a pick I wouldnt mind that but I just dont see who the raiders would be looking at in the situation. I also dont think Beane will be looking to add someone like Mack after taking 18 months to get the cap in order but a fan can dream. It will be interesting to see what happens to mack and donald.

You are not counting roll over cap space. Depending on what the cap is next year (spotrac is using 186, I think, OTC 193), the 49ers could have 17 - 26. But they have 42 million rolling over from this year. Indy has 50 million rolling over from this year, the Bears 26, etc. Have to take that into account as well.  

The difference in Cooks and Mack apy will be about 5 million per give or take (AAV on Cooks is 15, I would expect about 20 for Mack). Thats about 3% of your total cap space. Hardly a killer. 

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4 minutes ago, Forge said:

You are not counting roll over cap space. Depending on what the cap is next year (spotrac is using 186, I think, OTC 193), the 49ers could have 17 - 26. But they have 42 million rolling over from this year. Indy has 50 million rolling over from this year, the Bears 26. 

The difference in Cooks and Mack apy will be about 5 million per give or take (AAV on Cooks is 15, I would expect about 20 for Mack). Thats about 3% of your total cap space. Hardly a killer. 

True forgot about that.

Mack's agent has said he is seeking 22 mil but may wait and see what donald gets before demanding a trade from Oakland as they may see closer to 23 mil a year. It is all speculative ofcourse and Raiders might bite the bullet and pay him 

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Just now, soflbillsfan said:

 

Mack's agent has said he is seeking 22 mil but may wait and see what donald gets before demanding a trade from Oakland as they may see closer to 23 mil a year. It is all speculative ofcourse and Raiders might bite the bullet and pay him 

Yeah, I'm assuming he doesn't get that, but who knows. Could very well get it. 20 mill just seems like the natural progressions from Von's 19 million, but yeah, someone may give him 22 and that starts to get a little sketchy over what previous guys traded for first rounders got in terms of total percentage of the cap (Harvin's was about 9% of the cap when he got his extension after being traded, Cooks' contract is about 9% as well. If you assume the cap goes up 10 million next year like it has each of the past few, Macks' 22M aav would be about 11.8% of the cap. All percentages based on AAV). 

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On 09/08/2018 at 2:34 AM, soflbillsfan said:

Everyone thinks it will cost much but honestly Oakland has zero leverage because the size of the contract. Just like the dolphins had with Landry. Oakland cant afford to pay him if they could then they would have already I think Khalil will be moved for far less than a 1st round pick but I could be wrong.

You are wrong. If there was any realistic chance Mack was on the market, there would so many teams interested the demand would push the price well above a 1st.

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On 8/12/2018 at 5:35 PM, Forge said:

Yeah, I'm assuming he doesn't get that, but who knows. Could very well get it. 20 mill just seems like the natural progressions from Von's 19 million, but yeah, someone may give him 22 and that starts to get a little sketchy over what previous guys traded for first rounders got in terms of total percentage of the cap (Harvin's was about 9% of the cap when he got his extension after being traded, Cooks' contract is about 9% as well. If you assume the cap goes up 10 million next year like it has each of the past few, Macks' 22M aav would be about 11.8% of the cap. All percentages based on AAV). 

A fairly common HR model in business is Welch's 20-70-10 approach. Don't know if any NFL teams pursue this strategy or some modified version of it, but thought some following this thread might be interested. Those top tier players end up getting some hefty offers. It's not like the companies ignore their budgeted salary expense, but the offers for quality workers can be significant. It may be that the 11.8% of Cap that paying Mack $22 mil might not be so outrageous as it seems on the surface.

http://www.thefootballeducator.com/build-an-nfl-roster-using-jack-welch’s-20-70-10-approach/

Edited by Yibbyl

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