2019 prospects and outlook

[JetsFan15]

8 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

This is just a subject I’ll have to agree to disagree on. Bc it’s not even about a 1st around RB. It’s about us needing players that can make plays on offense. And like any poistionnyou get more talent the higher you draft them. So yes I heighten RB AND WR for us now then most years... bc we need players that make plays. We can keep bulking up the defense every year (like we have for forever) but it makes zero difference when they’re on the field the whole game how good they are and have to keep the other team under 10 points to win a game bc the offense is awful. I think some just don’t want a RB bc of 10 years ago that’s asnt how to build a team. But recently it has been. And it’s pretty much worked well for the teams drafting RBs high. 

There have been 27 RBs drafted in the top 5 picks since 1980.  Only 8 of them (included Zeke but not Barkley) would be considered as great difference makers over a period of time.  That is little less than 30% hit rate.  Have to say your statement in bold is just incorrect.  Here is the list (bold are those ones that have worked out well):

Curtis Enis, Alonzo Highsmith, Ki-Jana Carter, Blair Thomas, Brent Fullwood, Trent Ricardson, Curits Dickey, Bo Jakcson, Leondard Fournette, Cadilac Williams, Darren McFadden, Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, Zeke, BIlly Sims, Garison Hearst, Curt Warner, Reggie Bush, George Rogers, Freeman McNeil, Ricky Willaims, Jamal Lewis, Ed James, Faulk, DIckerson, LT, Sanders

All in bold rushed for over 10K yards with the exception of Zeke.  One could argue Zeke does not belong yet but giving him the benefit of the doubt.  With the 3rd overall pick you have to have a much higher hit rate if your not taking a QB.  I don't see Jacobs in the class of LT, Sanders, et al at this point.  Not to mention there are some other backs (Henderson from Memphis comes to mind) that can bring great value in the 4th and 5th rounds with very similar skills sets as Jacobs.  If we decided to trade back a few times and end up in the mid to late 1st round with extra picks then it may make sense. 

[Bobby816]

10 minutes ago, JetsFan15 said:

There have been 27 RBs drafted in the top 5 picks since 1980.  Only 8 of them (included Zeke but not Barkley) would be considered as great difference makers over a period of time.  That is little less than 30% hit rate.  Have to say your statement in bold is just incorrect.  Here is the list (bold are those ones that have worked out well):

Curtis Enis, Alonzo Highsmith, Ki-Jana Carter, Blair Thomas, Brent Fullwood, Trent Ricardson, Curits Dickey, Bo Jakcson, Leondard Fournette, Cadilac Williams, Darren McFadden, Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, Zeke, BIlly Sims, Garison Hearst, Curt Warner, Reggie Bush, George Rogers, Freeman McNeil, Ricky Willaims, Jamal Lewis, Ed James, Faulk, DIckerson, LT, Sanders

All in bold rushed for over 10K yards with the exception of Zeke.  One could argue Zeke does not belong yet but giving him the benefit of the doubt.  With the 3rd overall pick you have to have a much higher hit rate if your not taking a QB.  I don't see Jacobs in the class of LT, Sanders, et al at this point.  Not to mention there are some other backs (Henderson from Memphis comes to mind) that can bring great value in the 4th and 5th rounds with very similar skills sets as Jacobs.  If we decided to trade back a few times and end up in the mid to late 1st round with extra picks then it may make sense. 

You narrowed it down to just top 5 though. Not 1st rounders in general. And like I stated. The same can be said about every position though. There’s edge rushers teams miss on all the time early in the draft and 3rd rounders become great players. Same at CB, LB, etc. I’m not at all saying good players such as RBs can’t be found later in drafts. Bc obviously that’s not true. My debate is that you can find good edge rushers and such innthe mid rounds just as much. And since we are bottom 5 every year in offense... it’s clear to me that offense should be the target if having to choose a side of the ball.

 

My main point is offense for this team should be heightened. For example we don’t land Bell but get a couple better OLineman and sign 1 edge and a tier 2 CB in FA (just an example) it comes to our turn to pick (ideally we trade down) but I’m getting Jacobs. Bc this team needs offense more than a edge rusher. And that’s my point. There’s also something to be said for can’t miss prospects. Which outside of Lee... Macc has generally drafted. A star RB would help Macc and this team out hugely.

[JetsFan15]

4 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

You narrowed it down to just top 5 though. Not 1st rounders in general. And like I stated. The same can be said about every position though. There’s edge rushers teams miss on all the time early in the draft and 3rd rounders become great players. Same at CB, LB, etc. I’m not at all saying good players such as RBs can’t be found later in drafts. Bc obviously that’s not true. My debate is that you can find good edge rushers and such innthe mid rounds just as much. And since we are bottom 5 every year in offense... it’s clear to me that offense should be the target if having to choose a side of the ball.

 

My main point is offense for this team should be heightened. For example we don’t land Bell but get a couple better OLineman and sign 1 edge and a tier 2 CB in FA (just an example) it comes to our turn to pick (ideally we trade down) but I’m getting Jacobs. Bc this team needs offense more than a edge rusher. And that’s my point. There’s also something to be said for can’t miss prospects. Which outside of Lee... Macc has generally drafted. A star RB would help Macc and this team out hugely.

Well we are drafting 3rd so we are talking about who the Jets take a 3 barring a trade back. Hence the top 5 data but I would say, educated guess, the percentage for RB stays the same.

I don't disagree we need play makers on offense.  I do disagree that we at 3 we limit ourselves to one side of the ball though.  We need to take an impact player and difference maker.  To me that would be Allen or Bosa which happens to fit a great need as well.  Those two, IMO, are the can't miss prospects.

 

 

[Bobby816]

Here’s your list of RBs drafted in Round 1 over the last few years...

 

2018

2nd: Saquan Barkley

27th: Rashad Penny

31st: Sony Michel

 

2017

4th: Leonard Fournette

8th: Christian McCaffrey

 

2016

4th: Ezekiel Elliott

 

2015

10th: Todd Gurley

15th: Melvin Gordon

 

Now if you ask me... Gordon, Gurley, Elliott, McCaffrey, Michel and Barkley are all great players in the NFL and make a significant difference for their teams. And a big reason why is how valuable they are in every aspect of the game. Fournette can’t stay healthy and that was an issue for him inntye draft process. If he wasn’t so injury prone, I think we all know he has the “talent” to be in that lost as well. Leaving Penny as the only guy on the list that probably want a great draft pick. And he was drafted 27th and still has a lot of football ahead of him.

[Bobby816]

Just now, JetsFan15 said:

Well we are drafting 3rd so we are talking about who the Jets take a 3 barring a trade back. Hence the top 5 data but I would say, educated guess, the percentage for RB stays the same.

I don't disagree we need play makers on offense.  I do disagree that we at 3 we limit ourselves to one side of the ball though.  We need to take an impact player and difference maker.  To me that would be Allen or Bosa which happens to fit a great need as well.  Those two, IMO, are the can't miss prospects.

 

 

And I wouldn’t hate the pick of Allen or Bosa, bc I think they’re both very good players. But for this team... it won’t equate to wins until we score points. And Allen and Bosa can’t do that. And that’s my point. I’m not screaming to draft Jacobs at 3 (I certainly wouldn’t hate it)... but I think just grabbing a couple OLineman and getting an average WR in FA (assuming we miss on Bell) this team won’t be any better even after drafting Allen, Boss or another edge or DLineman at 3. That’s my point.

[JetsFan15]

3 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

Here’s your list of RBs drafted in Round 1 over the last few years...

 

2018

2nd: Saquan Barkley

27th: Rashad Penny

31st: Sony Michel

 

2017

4th: Leonard Fournette

8th: Christian McCaffrey

 

2016

4th: Ezekiel Elliott

 

2015

10th: Todd Gurley

15th: Melvin Gordon

 

Now if you ask me... Gordon, Gurley, Elliott, McCaffrey, Michel and Barkley are all great players in the NFL and make a significant difference for their teams. And a big reason why is how valuable they are in every aspect of the game. Fournette can’t stay healthy and that was an issue for him inntye draft process. If he wasn’t so injury prone, I think we all know he has the “talent” to be in that lost as well. Leaving Penny as the only guy on the list that probably want a great draft pick. And he was drafted 27th and still has a lot of football ahead of him.

Three years is too small of a sample to tell.   I would not put Michel on the stud list only after a few good games frankly. 

We need a player that can have an impact over a decent stretch if we stay at 3.  Let's see who on your list will rush for over 10K yards and maintains their impact over the coming years.  Hence the issue with RBs not matter how talented .... shelf life. 

[Bobby816]

1 minute ago, JetsFan15 said:

Three years is too small of a sample to tell.   I would not put Michel on the stud list only after a few good games frankly. 

We need a player that can have an impact over a decent stretch if we stay at 3.  Let's see who on your list will rush for over 10K yards and maintains their impact over the coming years.  Hence the issue with RBs not matter how talented .... shelf life. 

I put those years for several reasons... for starters no RBs were taken in Round 1 the 2 years previous. As well as it was right around 2014 where teams started throwing to RBs a ton more. Making them a heightened position of need once again (as long as the talent is there). And I like Jacobs shelf life a ton. I stated yesterday he only had 300 touches in his whole college career (for example Bell had like 450 just in the 2017 season). So his wear and tear isn’t bad. So he should have a good 8 years of high NFL football ahead of him.

[JetsFan15]

11 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

I put those years for several reasons... for starters no RBs were taken in Round 1 the 2 years previous. As well as it was right around 2014 where teams started throwing to RBs a ton more. Making them a heightened position of need once again (as long as the talent is there). And I like Jacobs shelf life a ton. I stated yesterday he only had 300 touches in his whole college career (for example Bell had like 450 just in the 2017 season). So his wear and tear isn’t bad. So he should have a good 8 years of high NFL football ahead of him.

Teams have been throwing to RBs for years ... it is a key to the west coast offense.  These guys were takne either because of need and talent or both not because of a trend in the league. 

RBs get beat up.  Hence why the league has gone to committee systems for the most part.  So while low usage in college is nice it does not insulate a RB from a serious injury in the NFL.  Anyway not going to sell me on taking a RB this year at 3 as I don't see one worth it.  If we are shut out of Allen or Bosa, I would welcome a trade back to grab a WR, OL or (gulp) RB ...lol

Edited January 28, 2019 by JetsFan15

[Bobby816]

19 minutes ago, JetsFan15 said:

Teams have been throwing to RBs for years ... it is a key to the west coast offense.  These guys were takne either because of need and talent or both not because of a trend in the league. 

RBs get beat up.  Hence why the league has gone to committee systems for the most part.  So while low usage in college is nice it does not insulate a RB from a serious injury in the NFL.  Anyway not going to sell me on taking a RB this year at 3 as I don't see one worth it.  If we are shut out of Allen or Bosa, I would welcome a trade back to grab a WR, OL or (gulp) RB ...lol

I can respect that. Just a difference of opinion and team building.

[KingOfNewYork]

1 hour ago, Bobby816 said:

This is just a subject I’ll have to agree to disagree on. Bc it’s not even about a 1st around RB. It’s about us needing players that can make plays on offense. And like any poistionnyou get more talent the higher you draft them. So yes I heighten RB AND WR for us now then most years... bc we need players that make plays. We can keep bulking up the defense every year (like we have for forever) but it makes zero difference when they’re on the field the whole game how good they are and have to keep the other team under 10 points to win a game bc the offense is awful. I think some just don’t want a RB bc of 10 years ago that’s asnt how to build a team. But recently it has been. And it’s pretty much worked well for the teams drafting RBs high. 

Who has it worked for recently? 

 

[KingOfNewYork]

I’ve always felt like rounds 2 and 3 have been the best spots for skill players. Round 1 for the trenches, QB and DBs. 

Then day 3 you get specialists and projects. 

Sure you find a game every now and then but you get the point. 

Edited January 28, 2019 by KingOfTheDot

[rampantjet]

The main reason i don't want to take RB early is the money aspect.  Lets look at a few nice things about RB's in the NFL.  

1.  There seems to be no shortage of them, as it seems like there is constantly a new one popping up and producing at at least respectable levels.  

2.  Much of their success is dependent on things out of their control.  O line.... which makes a massive difference, and scheme.  Look at Gurley with a good O line and scheme vs without.

3.  RB's don't command top dollar other than in the very rare case (like what Bell might get).  Thus they can be productive players and only take up a small portion of your cap space. 

Keeping #3 in mind lets look at Saquon being taken by the Giants.  The best thing about the draft is that you generally have relatively cheap control of the player for 4 years then a more expensive option for the 5th year if it was a 1st rounder.  So for example Sam Darnold is making around 8 mill per which is outstanding for us compared to a QB on his 2nd contract.  Back to Barkley.... since RB's are so cheap, when he was drafted at #2 he became a top 5 paid back in the league.... thus no matter how good or bad the guy ends up being when you take him, you are paying him like a top 5 talent at the position.  Which makes the gamble of a high pick even more than it should be.  

 

I just think spending a high draft pick and therefore high money for a RB on a player is a bad allocation of resources.  You should either get a good monetary value and have to spend a high draft pick OR sign a guy for big money and not have to give up any draft pick at all.  Sinking both in to one guy seems frivolous.  For further example, i am not sold on the idea of signing Bell to a big contract even though he would cost nothing in draft capitol, just a lot of money.  I would be insanely mad if we somehow ended up giving up a lot of money for him AND high draft capital (that is just a random hypothetical, i know we wouldn't have to spend a draft pick on Bell).  

[JetsandI]

Wait a minute?    Are we considering Josh Jacobs as one of options for #3?

 

Whoever thinks about it should say Good Bye to FF.

 

 

[SDotNova]

1 hour ago, KingOfTheDot said:

I’ve always felt like rounds 2 and 3 have been the best spots for skill players. Round 1 for the trenches, QB and DBs. 

Then day 3 you get specialists and projects. 

Sure you find a game every now and then but you get the point. 

I generally agree with this approach. Interior OL can still be addressed in day 2 though. Those also seem like good rounds for guards and centers.

[SDotNova]

1 hour ago, KingOfTheDot said:

Who has it worked for recently? 

 

There’s a few good examples of teams having success going running back high. Elliot, Gordon and Gurley were all selected high and are a big part of their teams’ success. You also have dynamic guys like McCaffrey and Barkley who have done well but their teams haven’t had the same level of success as those other guys.

Only bust I can think of in recent drafts is Fournette. Even the Pats have done well with Michel. Part of the reason they are in the Super Bowl is because they can run the ball. Without Michel the Pats wouldn’t have been able to control the clock against KC.