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OrangeNBlue86

2019 draft/QB position league wide

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It seems like most teams have a good qb in place or a young guy that needs his shot. 

 

How many teams right now would draft a qb with a top 5 pick?

 

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Dolphins, Patriots (?), Broncos, Chargers,  Bengals, Steelers, Jaguars, Giants, Redskins, Saints

I think those teams, if given a top 5 pick, would not mind investing in a QB. 

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I’m not going to bank on Kelly making it, even though I do like his upside and competitiveness.  Unless he gets to show something this season if Keenum gets hurt or plays like crap I think Denver is firmly in the market for a QB.  Maybe not top 5 or even round 1, but this is a very deep class.

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, germ-x said:

I’m not going to bank on Kelly making it, even though I do like his upside and competitiveness.  Unless he gets to show something this season if Keenum gets hurt or plays like crap I think Denver is firmly in the market for a QB.  Maybe not top 5 or even round 1, but this is a very deep class.

Very accurate assessment IMO.  The top end talent is very meh.  None of the guys would be a top 3 guy in last year’s class at this stage.  The top 3 guys last year would easily be head of this class.   Maybe even top 5 would be 1st QB this year.  

Most of the guys this year are developmental types or have limited tool sets - none are as far in their development as Rosen / Darnold’s body of work entering the final year per-draft.  

The other part of this draft is that the pool of elite EDGE / elite DL and T’s is the deepest in a while. True top end types at D.  Nick  Bosa / Ed Oliver fall into the Bosa (lol easy comp but accurate) & Donald category of generational level talent that merits 1.1-1.2 talk and then you can add the CLEM guys, Gary and the Auburn / Bama standouts.   T has 4-5 guys I’d have likely considered taking ahead of the top guys the last 2-3 drafts and all pretty clear cut top 25 guys BPA wise now, some top 12.   Given that while some will get hurt / regress, the number of top level talent guys at these spots is massive compared to recent years, so this makes for one of the deepest trench classes in quite a while.   And while a franchise QB is one of the elements to get to the SB contender path (and the rookie contract one is the Holy Grail) the alternate method is to have elite trench play - this draft is built for that. 

A top 5 pick for QB would likely be a reach talent-wise if the trench class is as good as advertised.   The other issue is that teams needing QB likely realize the thin top end and so reaching to get the 1st / 2nd / 3rd guy is more likely - unlike last year where Darnold / Rosen were slotted there on talent even before their final year because of the unique skills / early body of work we rarely see anymore with how college O’s work now.  

I do agree the talent level is high in quantity but most of them are Day 2-3 project types that have no business going Rd1 and top 5 is a huge reach if one year of play is vaulting them there.    Teams spending a top 5 pick over Oliver / Bosa, barring injury, will spend a decade regretting it IMO.   But the rest of the trench class at the top end says top 10 might be too soon as well.  I hope we aren’t in a position where this is a Q next year.   I do think that factored into signing a 2-year vet (while leaving the trade out to get out of the Keenum contract if he’s not the 2019 solution).  

While I advocated strongly for Darnold / Rosen as worth a top 5 pick last year even before the 2017 college season I don’t see anyone I’d feel comfortable entering their draft year even at top 10 given the talent at key nonQB spots this year.  

Even if 2018 brings a guy or two where I’d consider it that will be with way less certainty given later success at a later age in college development will be the cause for the change.  That’s less reliable than sustained early success vs good competition.  Still a lot can happen so we’ll see.   But right now I’d easily say no one gets a top 10 grade and I’d hope we pass on QB this year - this class seems most like 2011 V2 (need forcing early picks over much better non QB talent).

Edited by Broncofan

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I don't necessarily buy that this class doesn't have blue chip QB prospects. I think Justin Herbert is a phenomenal QB prospect; Size, arm, mobility, maturity, etc. I think his medium would be a Ryan Tannenhill type player, but he has the potential to be much better. He hits full speed with his long strides in an almost Kap like way. Really like the kid. He is my early favorite to go #1. Honestly, I think he is a better prospect than Mariota, primarily based on his ability to pass at that 3rd level much better. Marcus is almost overly cautious in terms of threading the needle and making 'wow' throws.

I wont be surprised if we pick top 8 next year. If that's the case, I hope its closer to 1 than 8. Getting a guy like Oliver / Bosa would be franchise changing. They are borderline generational talents. Both blow Chubb out of the water in terms of game changing abilities. To have two defensive rushers that opposing offenses have to game plan against? That would be nuts.

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Posted (edited)
35 minutes ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

I don't necessarily buy that this class doesn't have blue chip QB prospects. I think Justin Herbert is a phenomenal QB prospect; Size, arm, mobility, maturity, etc. I think his medium would be a Ryan Tannenhill type player, but he has the potential to be much better. He hits full speed with his long strides in an almost Kap like way. Really like the kid. He is my early favorite to go #1. Honestly, I think he is a better prospect than Mariota, primarily based on his ability to pass at that 3rd level much better. Marcus is almost overly cautious in terms of threading the needle and making 'wow' throws.

I wont be surprised if we pick top 8 next year. If that's the case, I hope its closer to 1 than 8. Getting a guy like Oliver / Bosa would be franchise changing. They are borderline generational talents. Both blow Chubb out of the water in terms of game changing abilities. To have two defensive rushers that opposing offenses have to game plan against? That would be nuts.

Yeah Bosa / Oliver aren’t just best guys at position their physical skills / tape scream generational talent.  No problem taking them 1.1 - 1.2 barring injury.   Unlike Chubb they have no Q on elite monster traits and quickness that translate to NFL game changing pass rush ability (Chubb’s main Q). 

Re: Herbert or anyone else that separates themselves the issue is no one has the clear cut franchise pedigree at this stage.  Most have big flags.  So even if 1-2 really stand out the premium to take them will be nuts.   And they won’t come with a lower bust risk than the top 3 guys but come with a profile similar to Allen as far as bust-concerns or be seen as much lower ceiling than the other top guys.   I’d much rather wait to spend early capital on 2020 than 2019 Rd1 on QB’s given where we likely pick and the BPA pool being so rich in trench difference makers (if not DL then T so deep too at the next 6-20 tier).  If 2017 was the year to get CB and RB and 2018 was the year to get QB early then 2019 seems like it’s going to be DL / trenches. 

Unlike this past year there isn’t a guy with franchise skills, no huge flags and sustained early success who will be available later than expected - some team will reach early for that guy and worse maybe will pass on a Bosa / Oliver.   I hope that wouldn’t be us.   Bosa / Oliver are Bosa (cousin) / Donald level talents.   Those you don’t pass on for QB’s who aren’t elite-level prospects.  

Edited by Broncofan

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2 minutes ago, OrangeNBlue86 said:

So trade von, suck, draft Oliver, get a tackle and then take Trevor Lawrence in a few years?

If Keenum doesn't play well even with Von we might be in a high draft slot anyways haha

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Everyone says there's only one qb with franchise ability in this class.

 What are people's thoughts on drew lock from Missouri 

Or the qb from ohio state. (Forget his name but I keel hearing hes urban myers best qb since alex smith.

 

Both these guys have round 1 talent projections.  What are they missing?

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1 minute ago, Counselor said:

I do not like any of the QBs in this class. So unfortunate.

I don't care if I like them lol. I remember back in 06 when we all wanted leinert or young. And cutler was the only one who had a decent csreer out of that bunch.

The Grier guy from West Virginia intrigues me. He's got a kid all ready, has transferred from florida, is married.

There's something about mature people becoming good qbs.

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2 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

I don't care if I like them lol. I remember back in 06 when we all wanted leinert or young. And cutler was the only one who had a decent csreer out of that bunch.

The Grier guy from West Virginia intrigues me. He's got a kid all ready, has transferred from florida, is married.

There's something about mature people becoming good qbs.

I had a dream we drafted Grier a while back. He throws too many picks for my liking. 

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2 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

I don't care if I like them lol. I remember back in 06 when we all wanted leinert or young. And cutler was the only one who had a decent csreer out of that bunch.

The Grier guy from West Virginia intrigues me. He's got a kid all ready, has transferred from florida, is married.

There's something about mature people becoming good qbs.

Not me, I thought Cutler was the best of the bunch and wasn't a fan of either Young or the USC kid.

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5 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

Not me, I thought Cutler was the best of the bunch and wasn't a fan of either Young or the USC kid.

I liked Cutler but lets be honest a lot of people wanted leinart to keep falling so we could trade up.

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