Jump to content
AnAngryAmerican

Random Thoughts

Recommended Posts

59 minutes ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

Everyone and their brother wanted Tony Alford. And despite my best efforts, I haven't been able to figure out what happened there. I've told people not to go totally nuts that he wasn't the choice as entirely possible he didn't want the job or a big red flag came up in his background check or something of that sort. It's the hire I wanted but I've had to talk more than a few people off the ledge. I even have one friend, who played for Sonny in the early 1990s and has been a season ticket holder since he graduated, cancel his season seats for next fall. 

The UNC hire of Eddy Mac was interesting and a lot of UNC boosters and supporters I know love it, but I'm always very skeptical of a "celebrity" hire. It's very likely the biggest win UNC got from the move was that they won the Colorado news cycle for a week. I'm not sure how he will pan out as a HC. 

I think part of the problem was Addazio was an Urban Meyer guy who no doubt went to bat for him. Addazio isn’t a terrible coach but he’s very bland and awkward, I feel like they settled for someone who will go 5-7 to 7-5 every year. Same as CU imo, I would’ve much preferred Sark, a young, good recruiter with a dynamic offense would’ve been the way to go for both schools.

 

Hard to see him really succeed, I sure as hell don’t expect he will be leaving Castle Pines to live in Greeley anytime soon. It’s definitely a wow hire but if were honest he pushed the last HC of Valor out so he could have his way and coaching at Valor isn’t exactly like getting Montbello to the playoffs. UNC sucks so much they need to move back to D2.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/28/2020 at 12:53 PM, broncosfan07 said:

I think part of the problem was Addazio was an Urban Meyer guy who no doubt went to bat for him. Addazio isn’t a terrible coach but he’s very bland and awkward, I feel like they settled for someone who will go 5-7 to 7-5 every year. Same as CU imo, I would’ve much preferred Sark, a young, good recruiter with a dynamic offense would’ve been the way to go for both schools.

 

Hard to see him really succeed, I sure as hell don’t expect he will be leaving Castle Pines to live in Greeley anytime soon. It’s definitely a wow hire but if were honest he pushed the last HC of Valor out so he could have his way and coaching at Valor isn’t exactly like getting Montbello to the playoffs. UNC sucks so much they need to move back to D2.

Eddie Mac is a straight up POS human being too.  With how bad UNC has been, he was a good hire just on the gamble that his name recognition gets some legitimate recruits in the building.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, germ-x said:

Eddie Mac is a straight up POS human being too.  With how bad UNC has been, he was a good hire just on the gamble that his name recognition gets some legitimate recruits in the building.

I have heard that before about Ed. Didn't him and his wife show up to their kids' games and act like jerks or something?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I know @broncos_fan _from _uk and @Broncofan have experience in the medical field, how serious is this Covid-19 thing.

I’ve read/heard that it’s probably been circulating the US since late December/early January and thousands upon thousands have been exposed to it in the US, many of which went to their doctors thinking they had the flu and when tested negative were told it’s another “virus” and told to go home and rest.  

I’ve also read/heard that it’s going to cripple the health care facilities and that we’re probably going to see at least 1 major city/county completely quarantine to stop it.  

I work in the education and the school I’m at has 2 teachers taking half of this week off, all of next week, and then spring break to  avoid people as much as possible.  They aren’t sick, but what I’m told is their hope is that come April the covid-19 cases being reported will start to decline.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We’ve been in school for 1 hour and I’ve already called 6 different parents about their kids being so frightened of catching the virus they can’t function in the classroom.  One of which had her hood pulled over her head and was crying and screaming for everyone to stay away from her.  It’s insane.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

@germ-x 

This will be more than you probably want to know, but my hospital is the center of DOD medial research so we’re getting daily email blasts and I have had 3 f-ing meetings on the thing so I feel pretty up to date. Here’s what I know:

Coronaviruses are part of the bag that make up the common cold. COVID19 is mutating fast and now has 2 major haplotypes and dozens of subtypes. This is where a lot of the misinformation is coming from. That and leave it to America to politicize a goddamn plague. H1 which started in wuhan and went west is the most virulent and prevalent. This is what is decimating Italy right now. H2 went south and East and is what we’re getting a taste of in the states. It’s probably on par with a bad flu. There are reports of people carrying both strains so getting the “light version” doesn’t mean you can’t  get the bad one. Since most of the data coming out is on H1 that’s what the rest of this will be on.

 It’s pretty bad. Those that are saying it’s just like the flu are doing a disservice to the populace in an attempt to stabilize the market.

COVID19 is worse because it’s A) super contagious (most have an Ro if 1.4 meaning the average person will infect 1.4 people, so far this thing has an Ro of 2.9) and B) this one seems to hit older folks particularly hard. The average mortality rate is anywhere between 1-2%. Hard to tell because the numbers from China don’t make sense and are untrustworthy. But for people less than 50 it’s on par with a bad seasonal flu, around 0.4% but starting at age 60 it’s 3.5% and it seems to be a linear progression with age peaking with a whopping 20% mortality in people over 80.

 Interestingly it seems to hit the part of the lungs that converts angiotensin so if you take an ACE inhibitor for high blood pressure you may be protected from getting the real bad version.

It will probably end up being similar but lighter than the 1918 Spanish flu which had a similar Ro but the mortality was around 4%. That ended up infecting roughly 60% of the world and killing between 20-100M people (there was a little conflict going on in Europe at the time so numbers are not known. It’s known as the Spanish flu because Spain was neutral and the only country reporting reliable numbers).

Given that there are 7 times as many people in the world now if we follow the Ro to estimate ~40% infected and if we go with 1-2% mortality rate (which is halfway between the 2 haplotypes) then quick back of the envelope math says we may end up seeing ~30-60M deaths world wide, mostly baby boomers.

Also like the 1918 flu (the first H1N1 strain) this will probably have a 4-5 year cycle that will be much lighter than the original. But I think we will all be getting coronavirus shots to go with our flu shots in the not to distant future.

So unless this thing suddenly evolves into a less deadly or virulent strain, things could get interesting around here between now and late June (projected worldwide saturation)

Edited by broncos_fan _from _uk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, germ-x said:

I know @broncos_fan _from _uk and @Broncofan have experience in the medical field, how serious is this Covid-19 thing.

I’ve read/heard that it’s probably been circulating the US since late December/early January and thousands upon thousands have been exposed to it in the US, many of which went to their doctors thinking they had the flu and when tested negative were told it’s another “virus” and told to go home and rest.  

I’ve also read/heard that it’s going to cripple the health care facilities and that we’re probably going to see at least 1 major city/county completely quarantine to stop it.  

I work in the education and the school I’m at has 2 teachers taking half of this week off, all of next week, and then spring break to  avoid people as much as possible.  They aren’t sick, but what I’m told is their hope is that come April the covid-19 cases being reported will start to decline.

 

I think the biggest thing is it doesn’t matter if the majority of us get it, it’s that we can then transfer that to other people who may not have the immune system to fight it off. People like to argue flu deaths which is stupid, one it isn’t nearly as contagious as the flu, two seasonal deaths mean seasonal, COVID-19 has just started taking off.

 

Anyone who brushes this off as nothing major is an idiot, washing your hands is not going to keep you from infecting other people. I worry about my pregnant wife catching it due to the onset of fever. I seriously doubt my grandpa or his wife make it should they get infected. Have heard a few stories of people having symptoms but not having travelled internationally and being turned away from testing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, broncosfan07 said:

. Have heard a few stories of people having symptoms but not having travelled internationally and being turned away from testing.

That’s because we (in the US) have very little testing. The protein exterior that we usually look for to test for the average coronavirus isn’t present on COVID19. So we only have a few kits (my hospital has 250. Total. We are saving them for people who are likely going to be admitted so that we can quarantine them from other sick patients) the US government is sticking its head up its *** and actively blocking the release of testing kits.

“Numbers can’t go up if we can’t test for it! Then the market will stabilize!!”

@germ-x reassure your kids that they need to wash their hands and they’ll be ok as long as they are otherwise healthy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
59 minutes ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

@germ-x 

This will be more than you probably want to know, but my hospital is the center of DOD medial research so we’re getting daily email blasts and I have had 3 f-ing meetings on the thing so I feel pretty up to date. Here’s what I know:

Coronaviruses are part of the bag that make up the common cold. COVID19 is mutating fast and now has 2 major haplotypes and dozens of subtypes. This is where a lot of the misinformation is coming from. That and leave it to America to politicize a goddamn plague. H1 which started in wuhan and went west is the most virulent and prevalent. This is what is decimating Italy right now. H2 went south and East and is what we’re getting a taste of in the states. It’s probably on par with a bad flu. There are reports of people carrying both strains so getting the “light version” doesn’t mean you can’t  get the bad one. Since most of the data coming out is on H1 that’s what the rest of this will be on.

 It’s pretty bad. Those that are saying it’s just like the flu are doing a disservice to the populace in an attempt to stabilize the market.

COVID19 is worse because it’s A) super contagious (most have an Ro if 1.4 meaning the average person will infect 1.4 people, so far this thing has an Ro of 2.9) and B) this one seems to hit older folks particularly hard. The average mortality rate is anywhere between 1-2%. Hard to tell because the numbers from China don’t make sense and are untrustworthy. But for people less than 50 it’s on par with a bad seasonal flu, around 0.4% but starting at age 60 it’s 3.5% and it seems to be a linear progression with age peaking with a whopping 20% mortality in people over 80.

 Interestingly it seems to hit the part of the lungs that converts angiotensin so if you take an ACE inhibitor for high blood pressure you may be protected from getting the real bad version.

It will probably end up being similar but lighter than the 1918 Spanish flu which had a similar Ro but the mortality was around 4%. That ended up infecting roughly 60% of the world and killing between 20-100M people (there was a little conflict going on in Europe at the time so numbers are not known. It’s known as the Spanish flu because Spain was neutral and the only country reporting reliable numbers).

Given that there are 7 times as many people in the world now if we follow the Ro to estimate ~40% infected and if we go with 1-2% mortality rate (which is halfway between the 2 haplotypes) then quick back of the envelope math says we may end up seeing ~30-60M deaths world wide, mostly baby boomers.

Also like the 1918 flu (the first H1N1 strain) this will probably have a 4-5 year cycle that will be much lighter than the original. But I think we will all be getting coronavirus shots to go with our flu shots in the not to distant future.

So unless this thing suddenly evolves into a less deadly or virulent strain, things could get interesting around here between now and late June (projected worldwide saturation)

Damn, but thanks for the info.  Is it causing pneumonia in almost everyone?  Or are the reports of it being as minor as as a cold to be believed? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

80% of people get a cold. 20% of people get a pneumonia. Of those 20% (4% total) develop respiratory distress and require intubation. Another 5% (1% total) develop myocarditis (heart infection).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

80% of people get a cold. 20% of people get a pneumonia. Of those 20% (4% total) develop respiratory distress and require intubation. Another 5% (1% total) develop myocarditis (heart infection).

Alright.  I didn’t know if the 80% part was legitimate.  Thanks for your work sounds like you’re going to be busy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, germ-x said:

Alright.  I didn’t know if the 80% part was legitimate.  Thanks for your work sounds like you’re going to be busy.

Yeah, the 2 things making this a pain in the butt are the virulence and the anti-intellectualism in the governments. We’re seeing governments take this seriously (South Korea) and it being contained. We’re seeing governments ignoring it (China and Italy) and it going rampant. Considering what the US government has done to date in response (“thoughts and prayers!”) and the way I’m being handcuffed I’m not feeling great about it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
58 minutes ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

Yeah, the 2 things making this a pain in the butt are the virulence and the anti-intellectualism in the governments. We’re seeing governments take this seriously (South Korea) and it being contained. We’re seeing governments ignoring it (China and Italy) and it going rampant. Considering what the US government has done to date in response (“thoughts and prayers!”) and the way I’m being handcuffed I’m not feeling great about it.

That sucks.  Well if there was a positive from your posts it’s that what I’d seen about 80% having a relatively mild case was true.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now



×