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AnAngryAmerican

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11 hours ago, broncofan48 said:

Well outside of NYG, TB, Jax (tight cap anyways) and maybe Oakland who is going to be in the market for Tannehill?  

Not to mention outside of Jacksonville none of those teams are in a compete now mindset so will more than likely go after a QB in the draft if they’re to take one.

Speaking if TB, would Winston be an option if he’s not extended?

Yeah, Winston would be a candidate for sure - but from all reports, the team's likely going to give him the 5th year chance to prove himself.  The way to be absolutely sure, though - if the team doesn't re-insert Winston as the starting QB once they are eliminated (and at 7 or 8 losses, there's no way to make the WC), then it's a sure sign they don't want to risk the injury guarantee that comes with the 5th year option.   Winston would be far more expensive than Tanny, however.   But if we hear that Winston's replacing Fitzmagic in the next week or 2, then it's because they are thinking 2019, and letting him prove himself for the 2019 option, we can probably take Winston off the FA board.  That's going to be worth tracking.

Re: Tanny, the issue is more where he fits in this year's FA class.   As I see it, there are 8-9 teams that would look for QBOTF / QB upgrades at present:

1.  DEN (duh)

2.  NYG

3.  MIA 

4.  JAX

5.  OAK (the PR pieces on Carr are no coincidence, and obviously Gruden's statements can't be taken at face value, given he said no one was being traded....3 days before Cooper was traded lol).

6.  TAM (if they don't stick with Winston)

Then we have the teams who want to find a successor for QB, and soon, and who have no clear successor:

7.  LAC

8.  NO

9.  NE

Those last 3 won't necessarily be paying top $ for FA QB's, but they will likely either drive up the QB draft market, or at least ensure that guys find a job as a backup QB - where the going rate for a very good backup is 7-8M minimum, and as we saw from Nick Foles, where they need him for a few games, the market goes up to 10M+.  Also, keep in mind a key backup like Josh McCown is likely headed to retirement.

So, who's going to available?   This is the QB FA market (let's assume Winston stays in Tampa, easier to do 1-for-1, and I'll explain why I suspect this is the case shortly):

1.  Bridgewater (NO can't really afford to pay him top $ unless Brees is retiring - unless NO wins a SB or a terrible injury occurs, I don't think that's happening).

2.  Tannehill

3.  Carr (who OAK still owns the rights for, so we are more likely to see Gruden try to trade him than be a FA)

4.  Bortles (if JAX is going to get someone else, he's got to go).

5.  Fitzmagic (who after the hot start, has gone 2 TD's / 5 TO's after being re-inserted...back to his usual cycle).

6.  The rest (Foles, Tyrod, Eli - all of who really showed why they were a big "no thanks"). 

I didn't include Brissett because IND has so much cap space, and they need to absolutely have a capable backup given Luck's injury history, and GM Pace knows this, so it's hard to see him leaving there.    So when we look at the market, it's not just a matter of how many teams are out there - it's how desirable the candidates look.   Now, if you include Winston, for sure he's way more desirable than anyone except Bridgewater - but TAM's GM likely realizes this as well, which is why it makes more sense for them to just renew his 5th year option and NOT have to commit to multiple years (which the top 2-3 FA's would require), and see if he's worth extending or not after 2019.     

Bridgewater is going to be the #1 FA target for sure....out of all those other guys, though, Tanny will look very appealing.  So it's hard to see him being a bargain.  If he was the 5th guy with 5-6 teams left, sure, absolute bargain possible.   But it seems like he's the 2nd guy on the list with 5 teams (or 3rd guy with 6 teams, if Winston gets let go).    The last 1-2 guys end up being bargains, the first 2-3, not so much.  We saw that last year with Keenum & Bradford as the #2 / #3 guys signed.  

And the kicker?  Any team who takes anyone but Bridgewater, they're probably still thinking long-term.  So that also doesn't dilute the QB demand in the draft.  To be honest, that's probably a good thing in terms of Rd1, since it will hopefully help us avoid a bad, bad reach for QB Rd1.   I do think we'll see LAC, NO and NE all dive in Day 2 for their project (it's a horrible year to find a franchise QB with an early pick, but a project you can be patient with, and also throw away in 1-2 years and look again, there are way more intriguing guys in that mold this year).

 

 

 

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15 minutes ago, broncofan48 said:

And see if I’m Tannehill or whoever it may be they’re not going to go to be a backup when a chance to win a starting QB job is present somewhere else.  Unless the money is drastically different 

Totally agreed - just that from that list, Tanny looks to be the #2 FA available.   He's going to get a starter's job AND decent $ offered.   

We'd have to pretty much guarantee we're cutting Keenum (or find a sucker GM to trade, that's a pretty big stretch to find someone that dumb lol), and then offer 2nd-3rd FA-on-market $.   One part I could see, but both?   Seems very, very iffy.

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13 minutes ago, broncofan48 said:

And see if I’m Tannehill or whoever it may be they’re not going to go to be a backup when a chance to win a starting QB job is present somewhere else.  Unless the money is drastically different 

Agreed, Tannehill and Carr seem like  candidates for 1 year 'prove-it' deals with teams with day one QB1 openings. 

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5 minutes ago, bMiller031 said:

Agreed, Tannehill and Carr seem like  candidates for 1 year 'prove-it' deals with teams with day one QB1 openings. 

Re: Carr, his OAK contract is basically a series of 1-year prove-it 19M-20M deals from 2019 to 2021, with no dead money for any team acquiring him (OAK takes all the 7.5M dead money away from his prior bonus in 1 go).  So I think a trade is coming - it's just a question of how much Gruden will ask for...and get.   The talk of 1st round picks is ludicrous.  We certainly shouldn't even dream of anything higher than a 3rd..and even then, scary. 

Agree Tanny's going to get a 1-year prove it-deal, but thinking it will be a 1/10M type-deal, that's backup money.  Don't see backup money coming his way if he's the #2 or even #3 QB on the market.    Then it becomes a Q to Elway of if he's willing to spend more at the position (Keenum is 21M/1-year basically, with 10M dead money without a trade).  

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2 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Re: Carr, his OAK contract is basically a series of 1-year prove-it deals from 2019 to 2021, with no dead money.  So I think a trade is coming - it's just a question of how much Gruden will ask for...and get.   The talk of 1st round picks is ludicrous.  We certainly shouldn't even dream of anything higher than a 3rd..and even then, scary. 

Agree Tanny's going to get a 1-year prove it-deal, but thinking it will be a 1/10M type-deal, that's backup money.  Don't see backup money coming his way if he's the #2 or even #3 QB on the market.    Then it becomes a Q to Elway of if he's willing to spend more at the position (Keenum is 21M/1-year basically, with 10M dead money without a trade).  

But for Carr, even if his dead cap $ is friendly, his salary $ isn't. 

Given the teams you listed in the QB market this offseason, how strong would the trade market even be for Carr? It doesn't seem like he'd have more than a couple of suitors. 

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24 minutes ago, bMiller031 said:

But for Carr, even if his dead cap $ is friendly, his salary $ isn't. 

Given the teams you listed in the QB market this offseason, how strong would the trade market even be for Carr? It doesn't seem like he'd have more than a couple of suitors. 

Yeah, trust me, I agree with your assessment.  I have no idea what Gruden is smoking re: 1st.

Just keep in mind that Keenum got 36M/2.  Bradford got 20M/1 (of which they got out of 4M by cutting him early).   So Carr & even Winston's 20M is the going rate for average, fill-in starting QB's.  I know, I know - ridiculous.  But it's honestly the market now.   That's why I don't see Tanny coming here at starter rates....maybe we could trade Keenum to MIA for a 6th and get 7M more off the books, then suddenly we can pay 18M to Tanny....and GM Tannenbaum might be dumb enough to bite lol.  But that's a serious pipe dream (although we almost had RT Juwan James for CJ Anderson this past offseason, dammit).

And to be clear - I would love it if we got rid of Keenum & got Tannehill on a 1-year deal.  Or got Carr without giving up anything of significance except paying the $.  Because then we could skip the 2019 draft class Rd1-2, and only take a dart throw later - and justify it to the fanbase.  And then hit the 2020 draft class hard if we still don't have any long-term answers.    Tua, Fromm & Eason, even before we have other guys emerge?    Anything that saves a Rd1 reach for 2019's class and allows us to still hit 2020's class early?   Yes, please.  EVERY. SINGLE. DAY.

But Elway will not go into the 2019 season with only Keenum around.  He's going to have to make a change, or draft a QB who is labelled as the 2020 "next one".   When faced with that type of situation, I'd do backflips if we could simply swap out Keenum for Tannehill or Carr, no matter if it cost us 7--8M more (but better if we traded Keenum and saved 7M more, and in Carr's case, gave up no major draft capital, because dude looks like he could be irreparably damaged).   The Q is do I think Elway would stomach spending 28-30M+ on QB (if we cut Keenum and take the 10M hit, and then spend 18-20M on a 1-year prove it deal with Tanny or 20M with Carr) or stick with Keenum at the 21M known cost, and no picks (for Carr) or uncertainty of FA (Tanny), when we have so many other needs to hit?  That seems pretty iffy.

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51 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

 When faced with that type of situation, I'd do backflips if we could simply swap out Keenum for Tannehill or Carr, no matter if it cost us 7--8M more (but better if we traded Keenum and saved 7M more, and in Carr's case, gave up no major draft capital, because dude looks like he could be irreparably damaged).   The Q is do I think Elway would stomach spending 28-30M+ on QB (if we cut Keenum and take the 10M hit, and then spend 18-20M on a 1-year prove it deal with Tanny or 20M with Carr) or stick with Keenum at the 21M known cost, and no picks (for Carr) or uncertainty of FA (Tanny), when we have so many other needs to hit?  That seems pretty iffy.

Agreed - reaching for a QB with an early pick in '19 is worst case scenario - though it's not obvious to me that we'd be better off with a 3rd round QB in this draft (w/ an 80% flop rate) than Carr, even at his current cap #. 

I think if the decision comes down to either drafting a QB with a round 2/3 pick or trading a pick (round 3 or later) for Carr, I'd rather have Carr. 

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2 hours ago, bMiller031 said:

Agreed - reaching for a QB with an early pick in '19 is worst case scenario - though it's not obvious to me that we'd be better off with a 3rd round QB in this draft (w/ an 80% flop rate) than Carr, even at his current cap #. 

I think if the decision comes down to either drafting a QB with a round 2/3 pick or trading a pick (round 3 or later) for Carr, I'd rather have Carr. 

I'd be all for that simply because then hope could be sold for 2019, and we'd still be free to hit 2020's draft class hard if it didn't work out.  But, the 2 flies in the ointment for that scenario:

1.  Will Gruden trade Carr in-division for a 3rd?   I don't know that he's going to find a buyer who beats an early 3rd...but remember, he traded Mack to CHI supposedly to keep Mack in the NFC, so that might happen to us.

2.  Will Elway commit to Carr at 19.9M and then cut Keenum to save 11M, but still end up committing 30M to DEN's 2019 salary?   That's a huge Q mark for me.   Personally, if it costs us 9M more to go this route (than the status quo with keeping Keenum at 21M and then going Rd1 early QB) to avoid a 2019 reach AND that allows us to hit 2020's QB class hard, then I'll stomach that anyday.  Sucks for us short-term, but probably ensures our long-term health.   But while I might think that way, I don't believe that Elway would.   

Given the above, I'd think a Tanny in FA and cut-Keenum scenario as more palatable to Elway - or better yet, get Tannenbaum to take that 21M contract for Keenum and we save 7M more, then we can do the trade for Carr/sign Tanny or even Bridgewater (but only a truly moronic GM would take Keenum in trade right now).   But with 10M dead money and no trade likely, that's a big albatross on our QB spending in Elway's eyes.   What we can't have though is the status quo.   It's just a Q of what change Elway makes for 2019.

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Man Ed Oliver’s draft stock taking a huge hit this month.   The HOU scheme doesn’t let him produce huge #’s but this incident tonight is going to raise Q’s: 

The context - team rules say only players who are playing can wear those jackets.  Oliver wasn’t playing tonight.  Apparently the trainer was telling Oliver to take off the jacket but no reaction - which led to the coach’s actions above. Now it wasn’t necessarily the most smooth way to handle it - but Oliver going after the coach as they left the field isn’t a good look either   . 

Oliver is going to display huge talent at the Combine (generational #’s not out of question) and his pre-2018 tape is going to be really impressive.  But the whispers about motor and now this, well he was hotly debated as the 1.1 pick vs. Bosa - now a fall out of the top 10 could happen.  Wow.  

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Andy Reid got cute in that Monday night game.  1:30 left down by 3 on the 50 and calls a play trying to win the game.  Sean McVay is trying to match him now.  Has Todd Gurley in the backfield with under 1:30 left and runs 3 pass plays.

On another note, Andrew Whitworth has been AWFUL tonight.  Houston has abused him and he had a huge false start on the Rams final possession.

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29 minutes ago, germ-x said:

Andy Reid got cute in that Monday night game.  1:30 left down by 3 on the 50 and calls a play trying to win the game.  Sean McVay is trying to match him now.  Has Todd Gurley in the backfield with under 1:30 left and runs 3 pass plays.

On another note, Andrew Whitworth has been AWFUL tonight.  Houston has abused him and he had a huge false start on the Rams final possession.

I watched this game  from beginning too end . And anyone saying our roster is far away from contention is nuts. These teams have so many flaws. We have some very good offensive pieces to run a system like the chiefs and rams. We need a coach and trigger man and we're there.

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7 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

I watched this game  from beginning too end . And anyone saying our roster is far away from contention is nuts. These teams have so many flaws. We have some very good offensive pieces to run a system like the chiefs and rams. We need a coach and trigger man and we're there.

Rams were missing their top 2 CB's in Peters and Talib, and they lost their 3rd CB in-game.   And yeah, they aren't a perfect D - but they don't need to be.   The Chiefs are a very flawed D.   

When we can even put up 24-28+ pts a game consistently and score 3 offensive TD's a game on our own merits instead of short field TO's, let's talk about being serious contenders.   Until then, we're on the right path with going cheap & young, but we are still far away.   

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Just now, Broncofan said:

Rams were missing their top 2 CB's in Peters and Talib, and they lost their 3rd CB in-game.   And yeah, they aren't a perfect D - but they don't need to be.

When we can even put up 28+ pts a game consistently, let's talk about being serious contenders.   Until then, we're on the right path with going cheap & young, but we are still far away.   

Peters played tonight the point is these two teams have major flaws. The thing is they have great coaching/qb combos to overcome that. 

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Just now, thebestever6 said:

Peters played tonight the point is these two teams have major flaws. The thing is they have great coaching/qb combos to overcome that. 

Peters did play, correct on that count - but he's always been a big play CB on both sides - but when it's him and Talib, they're just a different unit (let alone with a 3rd CB who's functional, which they lost).   Wade's scheme requires two guys who can play on islands, and Peters hasn't been that guy at all as the only guy left - that was the problem in KC.  But put him as the 2nd guy, and the matchups suddenly all work.

The Rams also have Gurley, and 3 WR's who are amazing and all better than what we have (Sutton has potential, that's it, but Sanders wouldn't surpass Woods/Cooks/Kupp).   They are so deep they cut their 8th OL - who immediately had 5 teams put in WW claims to get him.    That kind of depth is staggering - but like every team, enough injuries happen at critical areas, especially the ones they didn't stock for depth, and great teams exploit it.   

Their coaching is innovative, no doubt - top-notch.   Goff is a top 10 QB, too - and cheap, but you make it sound like these things are really easy to get.  They're not.  And it takes time.   We're on the right path, but people are DREAMING if they thinking we're close to contention.    One W does make us close to the path to contention.   Still, we're miles ahead of last year, which is saying something.  

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