Random Thoughts

[lomaxgrUK]

11 hours ago, The Helicopter said:

While I''m with you his terrible persuasion sales pitch, I'm not sold on the argument about picking your guy @#6 vs #17. Elway obviously wanted Lock, a QBOTF, and with that argument should have taken him at #10...but he didn't. He got value from ALL his early round picks, unlike Gettleman. It's like saying, we had a guy pegged as a 5th rounder but we went ahead a took him with the #1 overall pick because you never know what can happen in a draft.

I personally don't think those comparisons hold water.

Re: the 5th rounder and #1 overall comparison - that is totally different. If you're willing to draft a QB with the #17 overall pick, that means you're very, very confident that is your QBOTF. The same way we were with Paxton Lynch. So, if you're very, very confident that you've identified your QBOTF, why would you risk losing out on him by not picking him at #6?

The only logical reason would be if you've identified someone else that you have same level of confidence in becoming your star QB, but even then - you've got to wait 11 picks and a LOT can happen in that time. You don't mess around when you identify a QB that you believe is the future of your franchise. No 5th rounder (or anyone beyond the 1st round, really) would be identified as the franchise QB because if you felt that way, you would trade into the first for him and get that 5th year option.

Re: us and Lock - Clearly Elway is not 100% sold that Lock is our QBOTF. If he was, he'd have taken him at #10. That is a fact. Elway would never, ever risk losing a QB he's very, very confident can be a franchise QB for the sake of a couple of extra picks and a TE.  

The fact is, you or nobody else knows whether the Giants got value. That's you (and everyone else) basing the value off your evaluation of Jones as a player. Gettleman thinks he's a franchise QB - if he's right, do you think anyone will ever talk about value regarding this pick ever again? The narrative would then change to, "why did the Raiders and Buccs pass on him?"

 

[lomaxgrUK]

For those that don't know, @broncos67 got married at the weekend - congrats mate! I join the club in just over 2 months ... 

[broncosfan07]

2 hours ago, lomaxgrUK said:

For those that don't know, @broncos67 got married at the weekend - congrats mate! I join the club in just over 2 months ... 

Congrats Ben! Mine is in 2 months from today.

[Broncofan]

Congrats to both of you.  Hopefully the SO’s are football fans lol but either way a big moment - other than the birth of a child, one of the happiest days around.  Enjoy! 

[Broncofan]

So NE's latest reclamation project - Jared Veldheer, signs for 1 year, 3.5M.  3M more in incentives.

I love the Munchak signing as OC, but Scarnecchia is the undisputed king for OC.    His work with Trent Brown was another successful reclamation project...but man, Veldheer looked completely done last year.  If there's anyone who can get a season more out of him, though, it's Scarnecchia.  Will be interesting to see the irresistible force vs. unmovable mountain battle in this case lol.

 

[lomaxgrUK]

On 08/05/2019 at 4:37 AM, Broncofan said:

So NE's latest reclamation project - Jared Veldheer, signs for 1 year, 3.5M.  3M more in incentives.

I love the Munchak signing as OC, but Scarnecchia is the undisputed king for OC.    His work with Trent Brown was another successful reclamation project...but man, Veldheer looked completely done last year.  If there's anyone who can get a season more out of him, though, it's Scarnecchia.  Will be interesting to see the irresistible force vs. unmovable mountain battle in this case lol.

 

I know it's cliche to say, but Brady really is the best in the game at getting the ball out quickly. I would never, ever, ever give a big deal to an OT that has 'excelled' in New England. The way they run their Offense is so different to what any other team can run in the NFL because of #12's pre-snap ability and his quick release. Not to mention the tempo they play at which tires the pass rush.

Someone will probably post in this forum at some point next year saying, "what a dumbass Elway was for letting Veldheer go; he's killing it in NE!" The fact is, we saw Veldheer struggle in every facet of playing the position last year. Any 'success' he has next year I put down to #12 and the way NE scheme, not Scarnecchia.

[Broncofan]

3 hours ago, lomaxgrUK said:

I know it's cliche to say, but Brady really is the best in the game at getting the ball out quickly. I would never, ever, ever give a big deal to an OT that has 'excelled' in New England. The way they run their Offense is so different to what any other team can run in the NFL because of #12's pre-snap ability and his quick release. Not to mention the tempo they play at which tires the pass rush.

Someone will probably post in this forum at some point next year saying, "what a dumbass Elway was for letting Veldheer go; he's killing it in NE!" The fact is, we saw Veldheer struggle in every facet of playing the position last year. Any 'success' he has next year I put down to #12 and the way NE scheme, not Scarnecchia.

For sure TB12 gets his due in helping - but Scarnecchia is a big reason for that.   Remember that he retired after 2013 - and the next 2 years, the NE OL play dropped off significantly.  The org rehired Scarnecchia after 2015 and they've gone back to top 5 DVOA OL play in both run/pass blocking.    By standard metrics, the overall difference in OL play in both run and pass blocking between NE and the 2nd best team when Scarnecchia is the OC is greater than the difference between the 2nd place team and a top 12-15 team - now that could all be attributed to TB12 in the pass game, but it's hard to see such a disparate gap in the run game and not credit the OL coach, especially given that motley crew of guys they bring in annually to fill spots (2+ key guys keep the core).  That gap disappeared in 2014-15 when he wasn't around.   It's hard to attribute that to TB12.    Ultimately, the only way to be really sure how much the effect either guy has - separate the 2 again.  It's just that in 2014-15, there was a clear dropoff (not just our great AFCG, either).

Either way, though - agreed 100 percent with the notion that NE OL FA's are bad investments.   NE letting Trent Brown walk after 1 good season and watching him get highest-paid OL $ from OAK, seems like a classic bust-elsewhere outcome.   Obviously getting AB is a huge upgrade, and I love their RB Jacobs and Day 3 value, but a lot of treading water for the resources given.  We'll see. 

Edited May 10, 2019 by Broncofan

[germ-x]

10 hours ago, Broncofan said:

For sure TB12 gets his due in helping - but Scarnecchia is a big reason for that.   Remember that he retired after 2013 - and the next 2 years, the NE OL play dropped off significantly.  The org rehired Scarnecchia after 2015 and they've gone back to top 5 DVOA OL play in both run/pass blocking.    By standard metrics, the overall difference in OL play in both run and pass blocking between NE and the 2nd best team when Scarnecchia is the OC is greater than the difference between the 2nd place team and a top 12-15 team - now that could all be attributed to TB12 in the pass game, but it's hard to see such a disparate gap in the run game and not credit the OL coach, especially given that motley crew of guys they bring in annually to fill spots (2+ key guys keep the core).  That gap disappeared in 2014-15 when he wasn't around.   It's hard to attribute that to TB12.    Ultimately, the only way to be really sure how much the effect either guy has - separate the 2 again.  It's just that in 2014-15, there was a clear dropoff (not just our great AFCG, either).

Either way, though - agreed 100 percent with the notion that NE OL FA's are bad investments.   NE letting Trent Brown walk after 1 good season and watching him get highest-paid OL $ from OAK, seems like a classic bust-elsewhere outcome.   Obviously getting AB is a huge upgrade, and I love their RB Jacobs and Day 3 value, but a lot of treading water for the resources given.  We'll see. 

In the case of Brown, however, it wasn’t like he was a scrub in another system.  He actually graded higher by PFF in 2017 with San Francisco, than he did in 2018 with the Patriots.

No doubt it was a huge overpay/risk by the Raiders, but I think more than anything it shows how difficult it is to find a quality LT.  Browns never graded much more than average, neither has Solder who set the market last year.  Bolles, who is hated by most in Bronco Country, grades similarly to both with a low 70s grade by PFF.

[lomaxgrUK]

I actually got to watch the Nuggets game because it was on at 8pm over here. Man, what a brutal way to go out. Got to give props to CJ McCollum I guess.

I am not remotely close to knowledgeable about basketball, but how much of that loss do people attribute to how inefficient Jamal Murray was? Seemed like every time Portland made a bit of a run, Murray was missing shots to feed their momentum even more.

[7DnBrnc53]

10 hours ago, lomaxgrUK said:

I actually got to watch the Nuggets game because it was on at 8pm over here. Man, what a brutal way to go out. Got to give props to CJ McCollum I guess.

I am not remotely close to knowledgeable about basketball, but how much of that loss do people attribute to how inefficient Jamal Murray was? Seemed like every time Portland made a bit of a run, Murray was missing shots to feed their momentum even more.

Also, there were a few possessions in the second half where Jokic was outside. As a Blazer fan, that's where I wanted him. Let him shoot out there all day.

[1234567]

23 hours ago, lomaxgrUK said:

I actually got to watch the Nuggets game because it was on at 8pm over here. Man, what a brutal way to go out. Got to give props to CJ McCollum I guess.

I am not remotely close to knowledgeable about basketball, but how much of that loss do people attribute to how inefficient Jamal Murray was? Seemed like every time Portland made a bit of a run, Murray was missing shots to feed their momentum even more.

Murray was def up and down, but two things killed Denver in this game: 11 missed free throws and 10% shooting from 3. Denver had been below their season averages in both those categories all post season long and it was bound to cost them eventually. Especially the free throws. 3 of Denver's losses in this series were by 7 points or fewer. They missed a combined 27 free throws in those 3 games, good for 68%. If they even shoot 75% from the line in those games, this series would likely have been over in 5. There's really no excuse for that. On the positive side though, the future is definitely bright in Denver. These guys were a couple of points away from the western conference finals. And most of them are like 22-24 years old. With Golden State's pending breakup, I could see the Nuggets being the team to beat in the west next year. 

Edited May 14, 2019 by 1234567

[champ11]

On 5/13/2019 at 5:29 AM, lomaxgrUK said:

I actually got to watch the Nuggets game because it was on at 8pm over here. Man, what a brutal way to go out. Got to give props to CJ McCollum I guess.

I am not remotely close to knowledgeable about basketball, but how much of that loss do people attribute to how inefficient Jamal Murray was? Seemed like every time Portland made a bit of a run, Murray was missing shots to feed their momentum even more.

Murray was essentially the barometer for the Nuggets all season. If he had a good game, they won...bad game, they still had a decent chance to win but usually no. And then in the playoffs the offense became even more Murray-centric. And so he had a poor game 7 and CJ had an A+ game 7.

Nuggets just ran out of gas IMO. I think they were the better team in general, but their bench players didn't step up all playoffs and the starters were just gassed by game 7 because they had to play such high minutes. Blazers role players stepped up and won them the series. 

It's the Blazers year. CJ and Dame are at their peaks and CJ just had the best ever stretch of their careers. Nugs are just getting started. 

[champ11]

21 hours ago, 7DnBrnc53 said:

Also, there were a few possessions in the second half where Jokic was outside. As a Blazer fan, that's where I wanted him. Let him shoot out there all day.

He was 2/6. I want him shooting about 6 threes a game. The issue is the Nuggets went 2/19 as a team lol 

[champ11]

20 hours ago, 1234567 said:

Murray was def up and down, but two things killed Denver in this game: 11 missed free throws and 10% shooting from 3. Denver had been below their season averages in both those categories all post season long and it was bound to cost them eventually. Especially the free throws. 3 of Denver's losses in this series were by 7 points or fewer. They missed a combined 27 free throws in those 3 games, good for 68%. If they even shoot 75% from the line in those games, this series would likely have been over in 5. There's really no excuse for that. On the positive side though, the future is definitely bright in Denver. These guys were a couple of points away from the western conference finals. And most of them are like 22-24 years old. With Golden State's pending breakup, I could see the Nuggets being the team to beat in the west next year. 

I could see a slight regression next year depending on what happens in free agency. I think they need to commit to one more year of Millsap (unlikely to sign an upgrade) and invest heavy minutes in super young guys - Juancho, MPJ, and Vanderbilt. Not sure any of those guys will be good or great next year since they are so young (I'm pretty high on Juancho, though) but to me it makes more sense to invest in them than to pay for a non-star player to try and upgrade an aging Millsap.

I'm still not totally convinced of Murray's impending stardom, but he really did have a great playoff run in general. If he takes a step that would be huge.

Jokic is a borderline top 5 player in the NBA already...so regardless the Nuggets are going to be a problem for the next 8-10 years. 

[Broncofan]

Whether he succeeds or fails in NYJ one thing’s pretty clear - even if a feud hadn’t developed over the supposed SF interview non-recommendation, Adam Gase and Elway would never have co-existed.     For all those who thought it was a mistake to let Gase walk - it’s pretty indisputable his HC MO is very much my-way-or-else, and not just with players.   There’s zero chance that would have ever worked in DEN. 

Teams don’t part ways with the GM who hired a new HC like NYJ did (batting a health / legal issue) unless it’s clear the 2 don’t see eye to eye.   How you don’t figure that out at HC interviews though is mind-blowing.    

Edited May 15, 2019 by Broncofan