Random Thoughts

[jsthomp2007]

14 hours ago, Joe_is_the_best said:

Anybody interested in doing a fantasy league? Like or reply if interested and we can get one started

I am in one league where nobody is doing or saying anything, so I am in, if you want to set er up!

[thebestever6]

3 hours ago, jsthomp2007 said:

I am in one league where nobody is doing or saying anything, so I am in, if you want to set er up!

If its espn I'll join as well.

[lomaxgrUK]

I am not in a single league, so I would join if there is a spot

[AKRNA]

Was anyone aware that Von restructured his contract to count for only $10 mil this year? His cap hits for 2019/20 are around $25 million. He turns 30 next season.

Even LT's production started dropping about then. At 30 teams still game planned around him, at 31 not so much, and at 32 he was just another OLB. Von will count $25 mil against the cap at 31 and $22 mil against the cap at 32. 

Lets hope he can maintain ultra-elite status a bit longer than LT.

 

 

Edited September 4, 2018 by AKRNA

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, AKRNA said:

Was anyone aware that Von restructured his contract to count for only $10 mil this year? His cap hits for 2019/20 are around $25 million. He turns 30 next season.

Even LT's production started dropping about then. At 30 teams still game planned around him, at 31 not so much, and at 32 he was just another OLB. Von will count $25 mil against the cap at 31 and $22 mil against the cap at 32. 

Lets hope he can maintain ultra-elite status a bit longer than LT.

 

 

Yeah we all chatted about it a while back... 

In the end we are presently 5M under the cap.   But only 14M left for 2019 (21M in theory but we have only have <40 guys under contract so you have to take away 7M for min wage spots).  

So that 12M juggling was necessary for Elway to get his 2018 roster in place.   It’s still notable that he balked against this strategy in our 2013-15 run.   Doing it to save $ now really hurts teams down the line.  And that’s what we face.   Even if we cut one of DT/Sanders and Marshall and any other vet deal that looks iffy - we are bottom 10 in cap space for 2019 regardless (as other teams will do the same).    And that’s by cutting guys who while not worth it still need to be replaced (and can’t just think starter level).   It’s why hitting on the 2017 draft was so crucial (and have been increasing in importance for so long) and why the Day 1-2 whiffs really hurt (Not just Lynch, Sly belongs there and let’s face it Ray’s not lived up to what we hoped for in trading up for him) .    Our best guys are no longer cheap.   That fueled our 2013-15 run in a huge way.  

Long term we need 2 more drafts to be as successful as we think 2018 could be (4+ year 2 starters seemingly a lock).    It’s also why committing any significant extra resources to win now is a very bad idea.  We have literally no room to make mistakes and our ability to afford 2nd contracts is going to be tight for a while.   

The bright spot is that 2018’s draft really does look so much better (even this early when you can’t be sure).   We do need about 2 more to get out of cap misery given we’ve also pushed 2018’s problems back to 2019-20.   

Edited September 4, 2018 by Broncofan

[BroncoBruin]

It really doesn't feel like a roster that needed its star to take a huge restructure. Man some rookie contract guys need to step up 

[AKRNA]

1 minute ago, BroncoBruin said:

It really doesn't feel like a roster that needed its star to take a huge restructure. Man some rookie contract guys need to step up 

That's my feeling BB. I just don't see a roster strong enough to warrant that. We did up our QB cap substantially. but still.............

[Broncofan]

30 minutes ago, BroncoBruin said:

It really doesn't feel like a roster that needed its star to take a huge restructure. Man some rookie contract guys need to step up 

Clinton McDonald signed 3M deal because we didn’t know about Wolfe / Gotsis and VJ / Woods made Walker play EDGE so no idea what we had.  

Tramaine Brock 3M deal because Langley looked raw as sushi.  

And of course no choice to sign both Watson last year to a 2-year deal that had an injury guarantee for year 2 so we got left holding the bag for 5M more.  Then when he failed we had to trade for Veldheer and his 7M salary because we weren’t able to develop a single T from our 2013-16 years.  

The 12M needed can all be summed up there after Von restructured.

I know we all know the general history but the actual stark details just rams home how much whiffing on Sly/Lynch/(and yes Ray) Rd1 and almost all of our Day 2 picks since 2012 has come home to roost.  

The scary part is 2018 was a very deep draft class and we picked early.   So while it’s very encouraging 2018 also having the best draft slot we’ve had to work with explains some of our success (not nearly all though).   

Next year’s draft class looks amazing at the top end for trench help (like @BroncosFan2010 said elsewhere I’d kill to get Nick Bosa or Ed Oliver on this team lol) but not necessarily so deep overall.   And we likely don’t get to pick 1.5 and 2.38 anytime soon (OAK & last place schedule alone should make us 7-9 to 8-8 so back to mid-high teens).   I’m encouraged by 2018 but we need 2 more like it with less margin for error.   I hope Elway’s statements about embracing more metrics and outside input is real - it was a refreshing change in approach but it needs to continue to evolve and adapt.  

 

Edited September 4, 2018 by Broncofan

[broncosfan07]

5 hours ago, AKRNA said:

Was anyone aware that Von restructured his contract to count for only $10 mil this year? His cap hits for 2019/20 are around $25 million. He turns 30 next season.

Even LT's production started dropping about then. At 30 teams still game planned around him, at 31 not so much, and at 32 he was just another OLB. Von will count $25 mil against the cap at 31 and $22 mil against the cap at 32. 

Lets hope he can maintain ultra-elite status a bit longer than LT.

 

 

Well Von doesn't do cocaine either soo.

[Scoundrel]

2 hours ago, broncosfan07 said:

Well Von doesn't do cocaine either soo.

That you know of

[AKRNA]

6 hours ago, broncosfan07 said:

Well Von doesn't do cocaine either soo.

I'm not sure what, if any, relevance that would have. That 30 yo wall exists for almost all skill players with very few exceptions. 

IMO it's quite a stretch to believe a 32 yo EDGE player will be valuable enough to justify a $25 million cap hit.

[Broncofan]

3 hours ago, AKRNA said:

I'm not sure what, if any, relevance that would have. That 30 yo wall exists for almost all skill players with very few exceptions. 

IMO it's quite a stretch to believe a 32 yo EDGE player will be valuable enough to justify a $25 million cap hit.

I think the point jokingly made is LT’s skill set was elite.  Like Von’s.  So the usual rules don’t apply as much.  But in LT’s case his well documented coke usage would have certainly accelerated his decline.  I mean, it wasn't just dabbling - LT took his coke use very seriously, dude probably could have listed cocaine as a naturally occuring substance in his playing years.  Now, that doesn’t invalidate the age 30 wall as a real concern - it’s been what I’ve been pointing out with guys like Talib so it would be pretty hypocritical to ignore it here.  It’s just with truly elite players the normal rules may not apply nearly as well, especially if we know LT helped bring on an early demise with incredibly excessive coke use. 

Re: Von’s cap # though it’s certainly sobering.   The only caveat is that with the cap going up by 10M+ each year the percentage used is going to look better.   But the beauty of the original contract Elway developed was the cap hits were easier to manage as time went on.   Now with the restructure its a total albatross if Von isn’t at his peak.  And even if Von is awesome we are still in cap hell for at least another year if not 2.    

It’s a big reason why I banged the table against win-now deals in FA for 2018 and going even at 2/36 for Keenum.  Not that they were excessive but sooner or later we have to bite the bullet and go really cheap for a year or two.  If we hit on 2-3 consecutive drafts with 4-5 year 2 starters each year and 1-2 impact guys we can get away with these types of signings and still compete.   Otherwise we have to hold our breath and go super young and realize we likely will suck for that time.   The problem with what we’re doing now is we look headed to 8-8 mediocrity and yet still find ourselves in cap hell for 2019.   A tight cap is ok if you are only 1-2 players away from being a complete team (us in 2013-15).   We aren’t even close to that now.  That same cap situation with the roster we have now  is a path I detest.  I’d rather we go super young take the hit all in 1 year  to fix our cap and suck if that’s the result.   In the long run we are better to go 5-11 a 2nd year and get cap healthy and young than get older in a run to stay at 8-8 / non-legit contender (with no chance to go deep on the fluke chance where we make playoffs next year) type team  

I know though it’s not in Elway’s DNA to do that so it is what is.  But yeah the restructure and what it’s used for are sobering given the future butcher’s bill. 

Edited September 5, 2018 by Broncofan

[broncosfan07]

4 hours ago, AKRNA said:

I'm not sure what, if any, relevance that would have. That 30 yo wall exists for almost all skill players with very few exceptions. 

IMO it's quite a stretch to believe a 32 yo EDGE player will be valuable enough to justify a $25 million cap hit.

I mean between the cocaine and alcohol abuse LT was always going to fall off a cliff.

[champ11]

3 hours ago, Broncofan said:

I think the point jokingly made is LT’s skill set was elite.  Like Von’s.  So the usual rules don’t apply as much.  But in LT’s case his well documented coke usage would have certainly accelerated his decline.  I mean, it wasn't just dabbling - LT took his coke use very seriously, dude probably could have listed cocaine as a naturally occuring substance in his playing years.  Now, that doesn’t invalidate the age 30 wall as a real concern - it’s been what I’ve been pointing out with guys like Talib so it would be pretty hypocritical to ignore it here.  It’s just with truly elite players the normal rules may not apply nearly as well, especially if we know LT helped bring on an early demise with incredibly excessive coke use. 

Re: Von’s cap # though it’s certainly sobering.   The only caveat is that with the cap going up by 10M+ each year the percentage used is going to look better.   But the beauty of the original contract Elway developed was the cap hits were easier to manage as time went on.   Now with the restructure its a total albatross if Von isn’t at his peak.  And even if Von is awesome we are still in cap hell for at least another year if not 2.    

It’s a big reason why I banged the table against win-now deals in FA for 2018 and going even at 2/36 for Keenum.  Not that they were excessive but sooner or later we have to bite the bullet and go really cheap for a year or two.  If we hit on 2-3 consecutive drafts with 4-5 year 2 starters each year and 1-2 impact guys we can get away with these types of signings and still compete.   Otherwise we have to hold our breath and go super young and realize we likely will suck for that time.   The problem with what we’re doing now is we look headed to 8-8 mediocrity and yet still find ourselves in cap hell for 2019.   A tight cap is ok if you are only 1-2 players away from being a complete team (us in 2013-15).   We aren’t even close to that now.  That same cap situation with the roster we have now  is a path I detest.  I’d rather we go super young take the hit all in 1 year  to fix our cap and suck if that’s the result.   In the long run we are better to go 5-11 a 2nd year and get cap healthy and young than get older in a run to stay at 8-8 / non-legit contender (with no chance to go deep on the fluke chance where we make playoffs next year) type team  

I know though it’s not in Elway’s DNA to do that so it is what is.  But yeah the restructure and what it’s used for are sobering given the future butcher’s bill. 

The issue is the coaching staff and the front office need to be approaching the team with a long term goal. To have a (highly) successful organization, the ownership, front office, and coaches need to be on the same page. Now.....I won't totally destroy these guys because "rebuilding" is way less common in football than other sports and this town can't handle that anyways. We also have a messed up ownership situation and I don't think we would be here if Mr B was still around. 

But the issue at hand is VJ and the coaching staff need to win NOW. It's not his fault for acting in his own self interest, at all. But he came in with a lot of pressure and the first year went horribly. Those guys know that they are outta here if it is a terrible year.

The real issue is.....Elway put together a team and made moves with the goal being win this season. This is true for both last offseason and this offseason despite the obvious signs that this team is a good QB and a couple good draft classes away from competing again. Elway will now have justification to fire VJ, but he made some ill-advised moves in order to give VJ a marginally better team. If they entered this relationship with a mutual understanding that they weren't contenders...better personnel and cap moves would have been made and VJ (probably) would have performed much better as a coach without this intense pressure. But here we are. 

I have to run out the door for work but more thoughts on this later. 

[Broncofan]

@champ11 I know you like pointing out how team-friendly the CBA is - and while I agree, I think the NFLPA has very clear responsibility in letting this happen.  They just are a very poor union. 

Great example - the Le'veon Bell holdout meltdown today.  I get that teammates aren't happy he's holding out, it really hurts their chances this year, and their window to contend is closing.  And it's true he's making a lot more than many of them.   But consider the context - after he took a 1/12M franchise tag last year, they used him for 400+ touches in 15 games last year, and then this year they tagged with 1/14.4M - and then offered a 2-year deal guaranteed money as their best offer - when their offer was for 5 years in 2017, with 3+ guaranteed years.   In other words, after a 2017 where Bell bet on himself, played great, the Steelers came with a much LOWER offer.   I get there's 1 more year of age, but in that context, it's easy to see why Bell's chosen to hold out a portion of 2018 - otherwise, they'd run him into the ground, and then he'd risk losing his only shot a big payday with injury, and more flags on wear/tear on his resume.  

Here's the thing - the fact a superstar can't get a guaranteed deal beyond year to year other than offer that are ridiculously below market - the PIT players should be supporting his right to make a stand.  Instead, they just kill his character.   And yet if they were the ones holding out, they'd be expecting their teammates to stay out of it - as it's a business decision.  Now, it's very clear something else is driving the talks - probably Bell isn't a saint.  But the NFLPA at the very least should be supporting Bell to the fullest - PIT's use of the 2nd tag and not operating in good faith to obtain an extension, Bell should be exercising his full rights to wait as a response.   Even if his teammates dislike it for the team, for the NFLPA and future negotiations, it's actually helping the group as a whole.

So the kicker here?   The guy leading the charge in slamming Bell today - Ramon Foster (see below).  Who happens  to be he PIT NFLPA rep.  Yep, the one guy who should understand the need to stand up to a team that won't negotiate in good faith.  

If anyone wonders why the NFL CBA is so tilted to being owner/team-friendly, the complete lack of ability of the NFLPA has to be factored in here.  SMH.

 

 

Edited September 6, 2018 by Broncofan