2018 53-Man Roster Projections and Discussion

[iLikeDefense]

19 hours ago, AKRNA said:

We'll just sign Holland to the ps on Monday unless he doesn't want to.  I still don't think anyone will pick him up for their 53.

Damn, you nailed it!

[Broncofan]

51 minutes ago, BroncoBruin said:

Wow. Su'a to IR, McKenzie to the 53. 

So that leaves open the chance that Su’a can return by week 8 - deliberate move to wait until today that’s what makes him eligible for IR-return (do it before and he’s done for year).   It explains keeping both Thomas and Cravens to back up Parks at hybrid S/LB even more. 

Wonder how it affects the comp pick to WAS.  

[Slappy Mc]

2 hours ago, PFM18 said:

So it sounds like Paxton is/has been cut which is fair enough. Should have happened. 

But now we learn this is due to claiming Kevin Hogan off waivers. 

So the only reason we cut Paxton is so we can bring in another QB who's actually got WORSE stats than Paxton!

Seriously. I wanna know how this Front Office evaluates QB's. Elway was a damn good one but yet he doesn't seem to have the ability to pick one to lead the team.*

(*Keenum pending) 

I just came to see how bad people thought Paxton was?

I’m surprised anyone picked up Hogan. He is not a good QB. Below average arm strength, not the best decision maker, short-arms throws often. One positive is that he is surprisingly mobile.

If going from Paxton to Hogan is an upgrade, I am assuming Paxton will be out of the league soon.

 

[thebestever6]

12 minutes ago, Slappy Mc said:

I just came to see how bad people thought Paxton was?

I’m surprised anyone picked up Hogan. He is not a good QB. Below average arm strength, not the best decision maker, short-arms throws often. One positive is that he is surprisingly mobile.

If going from Paxton to Hogan is an upgrade, I am assuming Paxton will be out of the league soon.

 

When a qb doesn't finish his rookie deal and was a first round pick he sucks and is a bust. So the bolded shouldn't be a shocker. 

[jolly red giant]

Seen some suggestion that they cut Lynch for Hogan because they didn't think Lynch could run the scout team.

[Broncofan]

12 minutes ago, Slappy Mc said:

I just came to see how bad people thought Paxton was?

I’m surprised anyone picked up Hogan. He is not a good QB. Below average arm strength, not the best decision maker, short-arms throws often. One positive is that he is surprisingly mobile.

If going from Paxton to Hogan is an upgrade, I am assuming Paxton will be out of the league soon.

 

Hogan is JAG.  And yeah that says a lot about Lynch.   He never progressed after 3 offseasons.   It’s no stretch to say that it will go down as Elway’s worst Day 1 pick and top 3 for worst pick esp given we traded up for him.  To be fair to him DAL & KC tried to trade up too for Lynch.   But that just shows how much teams shouldn’t reach for QB meh talents out of need / thin class at the top.   Cautionary tale IMO for the 2019 QB class.  

[Broncofan]

2 minutes ago, jolly red giant said:

Seen some suggestion that they cut Lynch for Hogan because they didn't think Lynch could run a Pop Warner O

FIFY

[Slappy Mc]

2 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

When a qb doesn't finish his rookie deal and was a first round pick he sucks and is a bust. So the bolded shouldn't be a shocker. 

 

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

Hogan is JAG.  And yeah that says a lot about Lynch.   He never progressed after 3 offseasons.   It’s no stretch to say that it will go down as Elway’s worst Day 1 pick and top 3 for worst pick esp given we traded up for him.  To be fair to him DAL & KC tried to trade up too for Lynch.   But that just shows how much teams shouldn’t reach for QB meh talents out of need / thin class at the top.   Cautionary tale IMO for the 2019 QB class.  

Thanks, I was a fan of Lynch coming out of college. I thought he would do well, unfortunate he didn’t progress.

Good luck with Hogan.

[DiehardBronxFan]

They signed Kevin Hogan??  CHAMPIONSHIP!

[thebestever6]

8 hours ago, Slappy Mc said:

 

Thanks, I was a fan of Lynch coming out of college. I thought he would do well, unfortunate he didn’t progress.

Good luck with Hogan.

I was a fan too I thought in college he was great at feeling the rush and moving in the pocket keeping his eyes down field. I thought he was so smooth in that process he could develop the ability to go through reads at the next level while maintaining that fluid movement evading the rush and moving in the pocket. I get memphis was a one read offense but I still liked him. Andy dalton was successful under the same coach. Andy Dalton is also just head and shoulders smarter than paxton. Paxton seemed to easy going.

He did not succeed at this level and his maturity looking back was a red flag. But thats just it it's more than maturity he hasn't matured. His wonderlic score was 18. I hate to put stock in it but with paxton that score was low he doesn't have the football iq. 

What ticks me off is there's been numerous reports of him not knowing the playbook and more in love with video games.  I mean i go on Twitter today and theres fans posting that the Broncos spent damn near 9 mill on this experiment. Then I read a bunch of fans posting he got a dollar for every point he scored in angry birds on a bronco issued ipad I thought that was a joke. But i read more fans posting about lynch being sad he can't beat his high score on a game on the Broncos issued ipad.

 

I hope thats just fans being funny associating paxton playing video games while studying film as the reason he sucked. But i hope, he cared more about his pro career to do that on the job. I hope it's sarcasm because thats shameful if its at all accurate. 

[lomaxgrUK]

12 hours ago, Broncofan said:

The issue is how long Holland can be kept there - he can be claimed off it by anyone who wants to put him on their 53-man roster throughout the entire 2018 season.     That's why the decision to keep 3rd QB (and to a lesser extent, a 6th ILB) over him (and in 3rd QB's case, pretty much anyone who has a potential future impact on our team who got cut) is so iffy.    The decision-making process can be completely flawed, even with an OK result now (which isn't the full story, it's what happens rest of year) it doesn't change the concern (just like how a bad result with a good process behind it doesn't tell the tale, either).

I really value your opinion in this forum - it's clear you know your Football. That said, you're just being stubborn here. Elway has clearly been vindicated with the decision to put Holland through waivers. You mention that anyone can put him on their 53 throughout the season, but fail to mention that the Broncos will have the chance to promote Holland to the 53 should anyone try to steal him. 

This means that we can, for the foreseeable future, work with Holland in practice to improve him whilst also having (in the opinion of our Coaches) superior ST play from Bierra and/or Joe Jones on gameday. It's the definition of a win-win. 

Re: Hogan - I really don't like a raw statistical comparison. It just doesn't work in limited game time. The reason we all know Paxton isn't good enough to play in the NFL isn't based off his stats - it's everything you can see with your eyes that has lead to the stats. No pocket feel, no concept of going through progressions, awful pre-snap recognition, etc. Hogan is our 3rd QB and will likely be a poor one should he ever see the field. However, if he has even any ounce of onfield NFL QB intangibles then he's got a leg up on Paxton. Heck - Hogan ripped our backup D to pieces a couple of weeks ago, which is something Paxton has failed to do in a single practice this offseason ...

Of all the things to rag on our FO for (of which there are a fair few), the decision to swap Paxton for Hogan ain't one.

[Broncofan]

4 hours ago, lomaxgrUK said:

I really value your opinion in this forum - it's clear you know your Football. That said, you're just being stubborn here. Elway has clearly been vindicated with the decision to put Holland through waivers. You mention that anyone can put him on their 53 throughout the season, but fail to mention that the Broncos will have the chance to promote Holland to the 53 should anyone try to steal him. 

This means that we can, for the foreseeable future, work with Holland in practice to improve him whilst also having (in the opinion of our Coaches) superior ST play from Bierra and/or Joe Jones on gameday. It's the definition of a win-win. 

Re: Hogan - I really don't like a raw statistical comparison. It just doesn't work in limited game time. The reason we all know Paxton isn't good enough to play in the NFL isn't based off his stats - it's everything you can see with your eyes that has lead to the stats. No pocket feel, no concept of going through progressions, awful pre-snap recognition, etc. Hogan is our 3rd QB and will likely be a poor one should he ever see the field. However, if he has even any ounce of onfield NFL QB intangibles then he's got a leg up on Paxton. Heck - Hogan ripped our backup D to pieces a couple of weeks ago, which is something Paxton has failed to do in a single practice this offseason ...

Of all the things to rag on our FO for (of which there are a fair few), the decision to swap Paxton for Hogan ain't one.

Absolutely Elway can promote him to the 53-man roster - but will he?   If Elway is able to keep Holland throughout the year, whether it's by stashing him, or promoting him to the 53-man roster, then for sure it's worked out.   But that's no lock - and given how he sees Bierra and/or a 3rd QB's worth now, will that change in 2 weeks? 6?  Keep in mind - Jonathan Williams and Kyle Sloter were claimed off the PS last year - Elway let both walk.   When given a choice on who to call up with Cravens on the IR - it was McKenzie, with both Pacman and Lindsay on the roster for returns.     If Elway isn't willing to stash a guy on the 53-man squad now, it's not even close to a lock it will happen later.    My concern has always been Elway's willingness to stash a guy on the 53-man roster, a commitment he gave Langley & Jamal Carter, shows he's locked in for next year - and in Holland's case, it's a no-brainer given our EDGE roster makeup.  To keep a 3rd QB like Hogan or a 6th ILB like Bierra really shows a disturbing win-now marginal gain valuation over Holland's future ceiling and positional worth to the team.    As @BroncoBruin outlined so well, deciding to value a non-elite, limited guy at a replaceable position over a guy at a position of worth and demand, let alone a 3rd QB who literally is a washout (Lynch) or journeyman (Hogan), well, it's iffy reasoning at best.

In case you think the answer above is changing in relation to your reply - see my reply to Klis yesterday.    Absolutely willing to give Elway his due if he can get Holland through the season or he decides to stash Holland on the 53-man roster with a callup if another team claims him (see last line, a callup works just as well here).     But the season's results do need to play out to see if this works out.  If he's willing to keep him on the 53-man roster when faced with another team's claim, I will absolutely take back all the criticism on Holland's decision.  Until then, though, given Elway's not ever done that, well, let's see how the year shakes out and give Elway his due (or more hell) for this decision.   

And FTR, it's easy to think I or others are bagging on Elway as a bad GM - he's not, and I'm not saying that, either.  He still is a really good to great GM.   But like every GM, he makes mistakes.   Lynch is an easy one, the 2017 draft class strategy another.   There are others, too.   It doesn't change his strengths, either -  contract management, massaging the cap (just shows how bad drafting has been that we are in such bad 2019+ shape), etc. - deciding to go after Lindsay/Holland is yet another chapter in his well-storied UDFA magic from years gone by, and I & many others have praised that (and will continue to) - just look at the UDFA thread.    And so it's clear - while many ppl are going nuts on D-Henderson getting signed by NYJ as a bad result of the decisions made, I'm not in that camp (RB's are just that replaceable if you aren't special...like 3rd QB's and 6th ILB's...and we're deep there with D-Williams being on the PS and 3 others ahead).  There, the decision-making process makes sense IMO, even if the result isn't what ppl wanted to see.

 

P.S. Re: Hogan, I have no problem with Hogan over Lynch - it's just that neither is a needle-mover.   And remember Elway's words here - no other 3rd QB who was waived wanted to come here before Hogan was signed.   That's a pretty telling sign of how outsiders view this situation (Keenum then Kelly, 3rd guy is just a placeholder).   If we lose Keenum to injury, then it's Kelly time, sink or swim. And if Kelly sinks (almost certainly the case in 2018), no backup 3rd guy like Hogan is saving our season. That's the flaw in the thinking, and why giving up the spot for a guy (like Holland) is just a flawed decision.   Hogan isn't saving our season by learning the playbook in September instead of as an immediate signing if Keenum gets hurt.   Better to roll the dice elsewhere, guys like Hogan can be signed off the street and back up Kelly if he needs to be the guy (and again, our season is lost either way no matter if it's Kelly or QB3).

[Broncofan]

BTW, something to track - once C-Henderson's suspension is up after Week 1 - DEN has to decide on whether to stash him on the PS or not.   Reports are that DEN isn't going to keep him but sign Shamarko Thomas to the PS instead.   This time I bet Jewell gets to keep his 47 (or at least I'd hope so given the $ outlay by fans at draft time lol).

 

[lomaxgrUK]

2 hours ago, Broncofan said:

If he's willing to keep him on the 53-man roster when faced with another team's claim, I will absolutely take back all the criticism on Holland's decision.  Until then, though, given Elway's not ever done that, well, let's see how the year shakes out and give Elway his due (or more hell) for this decision.   

 

https://predominantlyorange.com/2017/12/19/broncos-promote-michael-hunter-protecting-going-elsewhere/

I know Elway has done this multiple times, but I can't find other examples (it's a tough thing to google for). Every team does it, especially at the back end of the year when teams who are out of contention with guys on IR start to look further afield.

Of course it will likely depend on how the season pans out. If we're in contention near the end of the season with our 4 OLB's healthy then we aren't likely to promote Holland if it's at the detriment of our ST unit. I don't think letting a UDFA, who didn't really flash much at all in preseason, leave is really a reason to bag on Elway especially when how bad our ST unit performed last year was the talk of this forum every week.

I really think people are overestimating Jeff Holland's standing around the league. When guys go down early in the season, teams want veterans who have NFL scheme experience to come in; not a UDFA with zero NFL snap experience. 

Elway's record of drafting has been poor of late, of that there is no doubt. But who has he cut (note, cut rather than fail to re-sign) that you regret us cutting? Especially young players

[Scoundrel]

5 minutes ago, lomaxgrUK said:

https://predominantlyorange.com/2017/12/19/broncos-promote-michael-hunter-protecting-going-elsewhere/

I know Elway has done this multiple times, but I can't find other examples (it's a tough thing to google for). Every team does it, especially at the back end of the year when teams who are out of contention with guys on IR start to look further afield.

Of course it will likely depend on how the season pans out. If we're in contention near the end of the season with our 4 OLB's healthy then we aren't likely to promote Holland if it's at the detriment of our ST unit. I don't think letting a UDFA, who didn't really flash much at all in preseason, leave is really a reason to bag on Elway especially when how bad our ST unit performed last year was the talk of this forum every week.

I really think people are overestimating Jeff Holland's standing around the league. When guys go down early in the season, teams want veterans who have NFL scheme experience to come in; not a UDFA with zero NFL snap experience. 

Elway's record of drafting has been poor of late, of that there is no doubt. But who has he cut (note, cut rather than fail to re-sign) that you regret us cutting? Especially young players

Kyle Sloter