Preseason, Week 4: VIKINGS (2-1) at Titans (0-3)

[Cearbhall]

Congrats to whoever (nobody) picked "other" in the poll and mentioned Zylstra. Zylstra tied Blake Bell and Cameron Batson with four receptions. @swede700 did best mentioning that Zylstra's odds increased after Beebe was ruled out. Although, good 'ol swede isn't eligible for the award after not voting in the poll.

Not the poll question, but Zylsta beat out another "other", Mike Boone, by a single yard for most receiving yards in the game.

[Krauser]

1 hour ago, Virginia Viking said:

It's an anomaly...pre-season doesn't matter.

Preseason results don’t count for anything, but they do have some correlation with regular season record. All things considered teams with good records in preseason win more regular season games than teams with bad preseason records.

Just taking @RpMc‘s example here, over 17 years we’d expect preseason records to work out roughly like this (assuming each game is a 50-50 chance, which isn’t right but close enough to make the point):

• 4-0: 2/32 teams x17 = 34
• 3-1: 8/32 x17 = 136
• 2-2: 12/32 x17 = 204
• 1-3 ... 136
• 0-4 ... 34

That makes the SB winning odds:

• 4-0: 3 in 34 (8.8%)
• 3-1: 7 in 136 (5.1%)
• 2-2: 4 in 204 (2.0%)
• 1-3: 3 in 136 (2.2%)
• 0-4: 0 in 34 (0%)

The odds ratios suggest a 3-1 team is at least twice as likely to win it all as teams that win 2 games or less, and a 4-0 team is 4x more likely. 

[TENINCH]

Time to release some players and get this team ready for San Francisco.

[Guest]

36 minutes ago, Krauser said:

Preseason results don’t count for anything, but they do have some correlation with regular season record. All things considered teams with good records in preseason win more regular season games than teams with bad preseason records.

Just taking @RpMc‘s example here, over 17 years we’d expect preseason records to work out roughly like this (assuming each game is a 50-50 chance, which isn’t right but close enough to make the point):

• 4-0: 2/32 teams x17 = 34
• 3-1: 8/32 x17 = 136
• 2-2: 12/32 x17 = 204
• 1-3 ... 136
• 0-4 ... 34

That makes the SB winning odds:

• 4-0: 3 in 34 (8.8%)
• 3-1: 7 in 136 (5.1%)
• 2-2: 4 in 204 (2.0%)
• 1-3: 3 in 136 (2.2%)
• 0-4: 0 in 34 (0%)

The odds ratios suggest a 3-1 team is at least twice as likely to win it all as teams that win 2 games or less, and a 4-0 team is 4x more likely. 

I see what you're saying.  Yet, in my opinion preseason games are the equivalent of taking bathing suit to the moon!  They simply don't make sense, football wise, except as a moneymaker.  Controlled scrimmages against other teams probably works as well, if not better, when evaluating talent.  You are also not exposing players to as much injury chance.  And, for the fan, the football is pretty lousy.  It might be one percent better than the pro-bowl.

[SemperFeist]

1 hour ago, Virginia Viking said:

Controlled scrimmages against other teams probably works as well, if not better, when evaluating talent.  You are also not exposing players to as much injury chance.  And, for the fan, the football is pretty lousy.

I’m gonna have to disagree with you completely. You’re not going to learn as much in a controlled environment as much as you would during live action, simply for the fact that you’re controlling the outcome. You aren’t going to see how guys respond to live action if you don’t put them in live action. Nothing prepares you like the real thing, so the closer you can get to the real thing, the better  

As for the product, I love watching preseason football. Sure, it’s not the quality of football that you’re likely going to see during the regular season, but you’re not meant to. Preseason games aren’t meant to be viewed in the same manner as regular season games. They’re games used to judge and evaluate talent, which is exactly why they are so much fun to watch. We (this being a draft site, and all) spend months watching and evaluating college players while we prepare for the draft. Preseason football allows you to prove, or disprove, your evaluations of those college players. 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, SemperFeist said:

As for the product, I love watching preseason football. Sure, it’s not the quality of football that you’re likely going to see during the regular season, but you’re not meant to. Preseason games aren’t meant to be viewed in the same manner as regular season games. They’re games used to judge and evaluate talent, which is exactly why they are so much fun to watch. We (this being a draft site, and all) spend months watching and evaluating college players while we prepare for the draft. Preseason football allows you to prove, or disprove, your evaluations of those college players. 

More power to you, my friend.  I have seen two live NFL football games in my life.  I saw the Vikings beat the Redskins on New Years Eve 1996...it was the final Redskins game in the old RFK stadium.  The other game was a preseason contest between the Patriots and Packers at Lambeau Field in 2005.  I still would like to have my money back from that Patriots/Packers game! Interestingly Aaron Rodgers and Matt Cassel played the majority of the game.  Cassel was 1000% better than Rodgers and the Patriots won by over 20 points.  I saw nothing redeemable about Rodgers, and assumed he was going to bust...he was just plain awful.  After that experience, I decided not to watch live or on TV any preseason game.  I think I've kept that pledge.