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Behold Da Bearz!

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2 hours ago, SteelKing728 said:

Its more than the number of carries..

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HowaJo00.htm

Anyways, I think the amount of defensive big plays a team has is unsustainable year to year. I would I expect the Bears to have less of that, but have a more efficient offense next season.

 

Football Outsiders stats have the Bears 5th in overall efficiency. And the number of carries dictates the number of yards. 

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Merry Christmas all!  I'm excited for this Bears game, no doubt.  My apologies for being away so long, but work has been intense, which is a blessing and a curse.

All season long, everyone's been talking about the Bears defense, and they've rightfully earned the air time.  The Vikes D has been just as good in all departments except the interceptions . . .to average nearly 2 a game is unthinkable.  So, kudos to the Bears D for being ball hawks.  However, I think the Vike's D has had two games where they kinda stunk it up.   

Given the schedules, the Vikes played the Eagles and the Saints while the Bears played the Bucs and the Giants.  Oddly, both teams split . . . a lot of things have happened over the year.  Right now, I look at the positives . . . Cook and Barr are back healthy, the O-line has some semblance of continuity and with Elflein in at center, they've continually improved.  The change from DeFillipo is working through kinks, but I think Zimmer was spot on removing the wart.  

What I'm hoping for is the Vikes to play sound and dominating football while beating the Bears this week at home . . . with no injuries.  Then, I'm hoping for a miracle out west where the Seahawks somehow manage to lose.  Then, we'd get to go to Dallas for the 1st round, and I like those chances.

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2 hours ago, ibt734 said:

Football Outsiders stats have the Bears 5th in overall efficiency. And the number of carries dictates the number of yards. 

That's weird though because the Bears have had games where the offense looked amazing and others they played pretty mediocre from what I've seen.

The number of carries doesn't necessarily dictate the ypc though, which are down for Howard this season.

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8 hours ago, SteelKing728 said:

That's weird though because the Bears have had games where the offense looked amazing and others they played pretty mediocre from what I've seen.

The number of carries doesn't necessarily dictate the ypc though, which are down for Howard this season.

Sure the O looks mediocre at times. But it doesn't have to light up the scoreboard with that D. 

If you have 50 less carries and average 3.5 per carry, it's a sizable drop from the prior year.  

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On 2018-12-25 at 10:19 AM, ibt734 said:

Fair enough. But for someone to say they are playing over their heads, I would ask that person to show me which players are overachieving. 

The Bears defense is legtitimately good, and will be good again next year if they stay healthy.  

But it’s also true that a number of their key players are having career years. 

Akiem Hicks has been a very good DL, famously underrated (if that’s not a contradiction in terms). This year, at the age of 29, he’s improved dramatically and is playing at an elite level (PFF grade 91.7, previous career best grade 76.6). 

Eddie Goldman similarly has been much more effective this year (4th career season). PFF grades him at 89.3 in run defense, where his previous best was 66.8.

Roy Robertson-Harris didn’t play as a rookie UDFA in 2016, and didn’t play well last year. This year, his 3rd career season, he has 24 QB pressures, 11 run stops and a respectable PFF grade of 71.6 in a rotational role.

In the secondary, Kyle Fuller was considered a very good but not great CB heading into the year. The Bears tagged him with the transition tag after not picking up the team option on his rookie deal, not the franchise tag. PFF graded him as the 34th best CB in 2017. This year, he’s 11th, and has nearly doubled his career INT total (8 INTs in his first 3 seasons vs 7 in his first 15 games this year).

Prince Amukamara also has a career best PFF grade (78.0, previous best 73.3) in his 8th season.

Eddie Jackson similarly was a good safety in his rookie year, and played very well in the first half of this season (2nd year of his career). He’s been absolutely on fire since midseason: 5 of his last 7 games have graded at 80+, including 3 at 90+, compared to 3 games at 80+ and 2 at 90+ in his first 23 career games. Jackson had 4 INTs and 6 pass breakups in his first 23 games, and has doubled those totals in his last 7 games.

...

Some of those improvements may be due to adding Khalil Mack, making it harder for OLs to double Hicks etc, and forcing QBs to get rid of the ball even if that means challenging tighter coverage. Some of them may be due to player development with talent reaching its true level, especially for the younger players (though Jackson being a 5th round pick, RRH a UDFA, etc makes it less likely they’re destined to be that good on talent level alone). 

Maybe most or all of those improvements will be sustainable over the long run.

But it’s also possible that at least a few of the Bears defensive stars from this year will revert to their career level of play at some point, and their defense will take a step back from great to merely excellent or very good.

 

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4 hours ago, Krauser said:

The Bears defense is legtitimately good, and will be good again next year if they stay healthy.  

But it’s also true that a number of their key players are having career years. 

Akiem Hicks has been a very good DL, famously underrated (if that’s not a contradiction in terms). This year, at the age of 29, he’s improved dramatically and is playing at an elite level (PFF grade 91.7, previous career best grade 76.6). 

Eddie Goldman similarly has been much more effective this year (4th career season). PFF grades him at 89.3 in run defense, where his previous best was 66.8.

Roy Robertson-Harris didn’t play as a rookie UDFA in 2016, and didn’t play well last year. This year, his 3rd career season, he has 24 QB pressures, 11 run stops and a respectable PFF grade of 71.6 in a rotational role.

In the secondary, Kyle Fuller was considered a very good but not great CB heading into the year. The Bears tagged him with the transition tag after not picking up the team option on his rookie deal, not the franchise tag. PFF graded him as the 34th best CB in 2017. This year, he’s 11th, and has nearly doubled his career INT total (8 INTs in his first 3 seasons vs 7 in his first 15 games this year).

Prince Amukamara also has a career best PFF grade (78.0, previous best 73.3) in his 8th season.

Eddie Jackson similarly was a good safety in his rookie year, and played very well in the first half of this season (2nd year of his career). He’s been absolutely on fire since midseason: 5 of his last 7 games have graded at 80+, including 3 at 90+, compared to 3 games at 80+ and 2 at 90+ in his first 23 career games. Jackson had 4 INTs and 6 pass breakups in his first 23 games, and has doubled those totals in his last 7 games.

...

Some of those improvements may be due to adding Khalil Mack, making it harder for OLs to double Hicks etc, and forcing QBs to get rid of the ball even if that means challenging tighter coverage. Some of them may be due to player development with talent reaching its true level, especially for the younger players (though Jackson being a 5th round pick, RRH a UDFA, etc makes it less likely they’re destined to be that good on talent level alone). 

Maybe most or all of those improvements will be sustainable over the long run.

But it’s also possible that at least a few of the Bears defensive stars from this year will revert to their career level of play at some point, and their defense will take a step back from great to merely excellent or very good.

 

Jackson was only a 4th round pick bc he shattered his leg at the end of the season before the draft.  He was late 1st/early 2nd round talent.  RRH was a freak of nature.  He came to the Bears as a udfa olb.  He has added 20 lbs to his massive frame, maintained his explosiveness and moved to DE.  He started trending upward towards the end of last year.  And some of the stuff pff is just finally catching up on.  Fuller had a great year last year, leading the league in pbus, he just couldnt catch, now hes catching ints.  Prince also had a really good year last year, but was rarely targeted bc for some reason everyone kept targeting Fuller, even tho he was breaking up a lot of passes.  Now teams are staying away from Fuller a lot more and Prince is getting opportunities to make plays.  Goldman has always been very good, but has had issues staying healthy, hes done that this year.  And Hicks has been a beast since he came to the Bears, but has not gotten the recognition he deserved.  That's a big one that pff has just gotten wrong for a long time.

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4 hours ago, Krauser said:

The Bears defense is legtitimately good, and will be good again next year if they stay healthy.  

But it’s also true that a number of their key players are having career years. 

Akiem Hicks has been a very good DL, famously underrated (if that’s not a contradiction in terms). This year, at the age of 29, he’s improved dramatically and is playing at an elite level (PFF grade 91.7, previous career best grade 76.6). 

Eddie Goldman similarly has been much more effective this year (4th career season). PFF grades him at 89.3 in run defense, where his previous best was 66.8.

Roy Robertson-Harris didn’t play as a rookie UDFA in 2016, and didn’t play well last year. This year, his 3rd career season, he has 24 QB pressures, 11 run stops and a respectable PFF grade of 71.6 in a rotational role.

In the secondary, Kyle Fuller was considered a very good but not great CB heading into the year. The Bears tagged him with the transition tag after not picking up the team option on his rookie deal, not the franchise tag. PFF graded him as the 34th best CB in 2017. This year, he’s 11th, and has nearly doubled his career INT total (8 INTs in his first 3 seasons vs 7 in his first 15 games this year).

Prince Amukamara also has a career best PFF grade (78.0, previous best 73.3) in his 8th season.

Eddie Jackson similarly was a good safety in his rookie year, and played very well in the first half of this season (2nd year of his career). He’s been absolutely on fire since midseason: 5 of his last 7 games have graded at 80+, including 3 at 90+, compared to 3 games at 80+ and 2 at 90+ in his first 23 career games. Jackson had 4 INTs and 6 pass breakups in his first 23 games, and has doubled those totals in his last 7 games.

...

Some of those improvements may be due to adding Khalil Mack, making it harder for OLs to double Hicks etc, and forcing QBs to get rid of the ball even if that means challenging tighter coverage. Some of them may be due to player development with talent reaching its true level, especially for the younger players (though Jackson being a 5th round pick, RRH a UDFA, etc makes it less likely they’re destined to be that good on talent level alone). 

Maybe most or all of those improvements will be sustainable over the long run.

But it’s also possible that at least a few of the Bears defensive stars from this year will revert to their career level of play at some point, and their defense will take a step back from great to merely excellent or very good.

 

Great point here, we just have to look at the current Viking's defense to see how each season things change. Last year the Vikes D was truly dominant and this year its very good but not nearly as good as last year.

I think Mack is a transcendent talent that drives the entire defense in ways stats cannot prove, but I can't see us being this good on defense next year. I highly doubt in particular we will get the number of picks and TDs as we got this year. 

Our win total could be the same next year IF Mitch and the offense continue to make strides.  

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Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, VikeManDan said:

Should please the other NFCN teams, I know I'm happy.

I still believe the Packers made the mistake in not hiring him to improve themselves as well as weaken Chicago at the same time.  But, now this move will be the true test, because it's critical that Nagy hire the right guy to replace Fangio...  

Edited by swede700

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19 minutes ago, swede700 said:

But, now this move will be the true test, because it's critical that Nagy hire the right guy to replace Fangio...  

Hopefully he takes someone from KC's staff! :D

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55 minutes ago, VikeManDan said:

Hopefully he takes someone from KC's staff! :D

He can have Bob Sutton.  

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55 minutes ago, SemperFeist said:

 

LOL that is hilarious.

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