Deshone Kizer: Present & Future Career Prospects

[NudeTayne]

Kizer and Kessler are both going to be legitimate starters.  *THREAD LOCKED*

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

I roll with Kizer unless a significantly better prospect falls into our lap.

I wouldn't sell the farm to trade up for one though.

[BwickRedux]

14 hours ago, Mind Character said:

I don't think we should do like the Eagles and go all in like they did Wentz b/c they did not have alternative options and we do. They did not have the cap space and the draft capital we do and there were not the available free agents available QB-wise that will potentially be available this upcoming year; therefore, after a promising and up and down season from Wentz...they did not pursue a QB in free agency or the draft. They were smart to do just that as they.

But the coming together of this type of draft capital, cap space, and available winning/starter level FA QBs comes along once in a blue moon. We won't see this opportunity for another 10 years. In fact, it took us 3 years just to build to this point.

As a result, we have the ability to protect ourselves from QB catastrophic injury and QB regressions (a la holding on to Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson until they were worth belly button lint).

Here's my thing: while we do have a boat load of resources, they are still finite. So any cap space or draft capital we invest in a QB is currency that could have been used to shore up the defensive backfield, bring in more wide-receiver talent, get more depth on the o-line, etc. We have no idea what Philly would have done had they had the additional cap space to bring in another guy, but I would speculate that they would still build around Wentz and not build behind him at the position because they are ready to ride-or-die with him and the flashes of greatness he has shown (as well as flashes of mediocrity).

Additionally, one of the huge appeals to acquiring Kizer for me beyond his talent and potential at the position is the fact that he was gotten in the middle of the 2nd round for what could be viewed as a huge value - if we then use a large portion of resources to acquire more top end talent at the position, you are devaluing the bargain he was had for - a rough analogy would be getting a new car at 15,000 under market value, then deciding to use that 15,000 saved to buy a second car just in-case the first one breaks down.... you're still spending the full cost of that first car now even though you can only drive one at a time, instead of using the extra 15,000 to buy a boat or pay down your mortgage.  

To your last point- what you may call protection, I call hedging. Catastrophic injury can happen at any position, so I don't think that's a good basis under which a front office should evaluate their roster. As for regression, I certainly think that's a legitimate fear, which is why I acknowledged my 2nd scenario is the riskiest (to go all in on Kizer if there are still questions and not a lot of tape) but that is where I'm basically relying solely on the extremely small sample size I have on Kizer so far, in which I do think he has shown flashes and the potential to be the guy, so I'm comfortable with betting it all on red and building around him.

 

[FGK]

15 hours ago, brownie man said:

I think even on the open market he'll get way more than what Brock got. The Jimmy G hype is unreal 

I think it's dependent upon what happens this year. If he doesn't play at all, the hype dies down, people say "look what happened the last time someone signed the backup on a championship team to a big deal (Osweiler)", and he gets something between the Glennon and Osweiler deals.

If he plays 2+ games this year and plays well, THEN you're looking at a big money contract, like, 20M plus AAV for at least 4 years.

[Mind Character]

4 hours ago, BwickRedux said:

Here's my thing: while we do have a boat load of resources, they are still finite. So any cap space or draft capital we invest in a QB is currency that could have been used to shore up the defensive backfield, bring in more wide-receiver talent, get more depth on the o-line, etc. We have no idea what Philly would have done had they had the additional cap space to bring in another guy, but I would speculate that they would still build around Wentz and not build behind him at the position because they are ready to ride-or-die with him and the flashes of greatness he has shown (as well as flashes of mediocrity).

Additionally, one of the huge appeals to acquiring Kizer for me beyond his talent and potential at the position is the fact that he was gotten in the middle of the 2nd round for what could be viewed as a huge value - if we then use a large portion of resources to acquire more top end talent at the position, you are devaluing the bargain he was had for - a rough analogy would be getting a new car at 15,000 under market value, then deciding to use that 15,000 saved to buy a second car just in-case the first one breaks down.... you're still spending the full cost of that first car now even though you can only drive one at a time, instead of using the extra 15,000 to buy a boat or pay down your mortgage.  

To your last point- what you may call protection, I call hedging. Catastrophic injury can happen at any position, so I don't think that's a good basis under which a front office should evaluate their roster. As for regression, I certainly think that's a legitimate fear, which is why I acknowledged my 2nd scenario is the riskiest (to go all in on Kizer if there are still questions and not a lot of tape) but that is where I'm basically relying solely on the extremely small sample size I have on Kizer so far, in which I do think he has shown flashes and the potential to be the guy, so I'm comfortable with betting it all on red and building around him.

 

Your point on draft capital//cap space being a finite resource is a really strong one.

In a theoretical/hypothetical world, I think you are absolutely right regarding your car vs alternative investment trade-off in comparison to the construction of an nfl roster. It's spot on.

However, the shrewdness and collusion of billionaire nfl owners has created a player contract environment for which all deals (even the largest ones) can be constructed in such a way as to essentially become 2-year contracts (a la Brock Osweiler's contract), or at max a 3-year contract.

That along with the fact that we still have a substantial amount of cap space available due to the large number of rookie or vet minimum contracts on the team leads me to the belief that we can absorb such a large contract for 2-years while still being able to sign one or two key free agents in the offseason.

Therefore, if we were to use a "catastrophic-injury" protection scenario by signing say a Sam Bradford or Jimmy G, the contract would essentially be a 2-yr contract. The contract becomes essentially a 3-yr contract for the top QBs in the league such as Brady and Brees.

One distinction I'm trying to make is that if we did such a thing, Deshone Kizer then also becomes a potential trade asset before his contract expires. He becomes the new Jimmy G to the "Tom Brady." Therefore, it's not so much devaluing Kizer but transitioning his value to another type of value; that of the promising QB that may be obtainable via trade.

If Jimmy G ("Tom Brady") gets injured we have our Jimmy G (Deshone Kizer) to step in.

If Jimmy G regresses, then Deshone Kizer can take the lead.

If Jimmy G ballsout, then we can trade Kizer for more value than we invested in him (e.g., the patriots being able to get more than what they paid for Jimmy G va trade).

On top of all that, I think we trade down a few times in the upcoming draft to continue possessing multiple draft picks in key rounds going into the future. Therefore, we will still be able to supplement our talent through the draft by acquiring young talent on potentially bargain contracts.

Right now, I'm pulling for Kizer and am primarily an advocate of signing a cheap QB2 with QB1 upside a la AJ Mccarron, Derek Anderson, or a recovering Bridgewater if Kizer balls out this year.

But if we go the way of what I'm calling the "injury/regression protection" route, I think the player contract environment as well as the potential to maintain multiple 1st/2nd round picks going into the future drafts means that we'll still be able to acquire talent to progress the team.

And...we'll still be able to protect the most essential position on the field: the QB.

 

[Kiwibrown]

@Mind Character I  think the best value for trading QB's comes from perceived value rather than actual value. Teams will trade firsts and seconds for a guy who could be the guy. We got offered a 1st and a 3rd for Derek Anderson after the 2007 season. If we cashed that in that would of been day light robbery. Old Sam Bradford was traded for a 1st and 4th round pick, he offers above average QB play and a high chance of injury. 

If a QB is actually worth having then I think their trade value is to high for any team. A prime Aaron Rodgers @ 30 years old would be worth 4 or 5 first round picks to the Packers to even consider trading. But to do that would be to mortgage the future of your team for a decade around one player, Trading for a try skilled QB is aa me that doesn't exists in the NFL's economy. I think that is why Jimmy G didn't get moved this year, he is actually a good QB and the Pats could make him the starter next year. 

The one situation I could see it happening is Andrew Lucks deciding he doesn't want to play for the Colts anymore, because they are so crap. He should consider demanding a trade to  team that is competent at building a team. Like the Browns, we could throw in Cam Erving for another average Browns 1st round pick. (they love our junk, Richardson, Dquell, Mingo, Sheard)

[zelbell]

I'm really up in the air on if it makes sense for the Patriots to franchise tag Jimmy G or not

if they do, they can leverage him and get some really good value for him via trade

buuuuut, if no one is willing to pay up for Jimmy G, the Patriots are paying a backup QB close to $25M which is crazy

[LouBegaFreak]

17 minutes ago, zelbell said:

I'm really up in the air on if it makes sense for the Patriots to franchise tag Jimmy G or not

if they do, they can leverage him and get some really good value for him via trade

buuuuut, if no one is willing to pay up for Jimmy G, the Patriots are paying a backup QB close to $25M which is crazy

It's going to be super interesting to see what they end up doing. If Brady plays at a crazy high level again I don't see how they move on from him. 

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

12 hours ago, LouBegaFreak said:

It's going to be super interesting to see what they end up doing. If Brady plays at a crazy high level again I don't see how they move on from him. 

They've done it before, albeit not with the GOAT at qb.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

And eff paying Garappolo (however it's spelled) 20-25 million as a free agent unless he balls out for a full season.

I'd pay that for Cousins, but not for some backup who's thrown fewer passes than Kessler.

[LouBegaFreak]

33 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

They've done it before, albeit not with the GOAT at qb.

That's why it's so interesting. If he's still playing like the GOAT I don't know how they move forward but when you consider his age and what they think they have at backup I also don't know how you don't move on.

[brownie man]

2 hours ago, LouBegaFreak said:

That's why it's so interesting. If he's still playing like the GOAT I don't know how they move forward but when you consider his age and what they think they have at backup I also don't know how you don't move on.

I think you take it one day at a time and see what you have with Brady. 

Things change. Watch how the season plays out then address it. I think if pushed to it they'll sign jimmy to another 2-3 year contract and just pay him handsomely with the notion once Brady is gone they'll make him highest paid for staying around. 

[Mind Character]

On 8/13/2017 at 11:01 PM, Mind Character said:

At the end of the season, we are going to have to make some big decisions regarding QBs.

The following QBs are scheduled to hit the market as UFA unless franchised or extended within the season:

1. Drew Brees

2. Matthew Stafford

3. Kirk Cousins

4. Jimmy Garoppolo

5. Teddy Bridgewater

6. Sam Bradford

7. Derek Anderson

The relevant RFAs are as follows:

1. AJ Mccaron

 

It's unlikely that Deshone Kizer shows he's the franchise guy in one season as rookie QBs struggle and it's risky to put all your eggs in on one even if they have a very strong rookie season. We have the draft and salary cap capital. It's our time and we have to strike while the irons hot.  Even if Kizer balls out, we still need to go after another one as insurance.

The big name free agents like Drew Brees or Stafford won't come anywhere close to Cleveland. They'll likely be franchised or extended to long-term contracts during the season or soon thereafter.

However, there are some interesting names that could either be brought in as QB1s or starter upside QB2s.

 

What should we do?

If Kizer balls out, should we still take a QB high in the draft if presented the opportunity? Should we make Cousins or Jimmy G the highest paid QB in the league? If Kizer plays like a rookie QB with some good some bad should we use our draft capital to go get a Josh Rosen, Josh Allen, or Luke Falk (assuming Darnold goes 1 to the Jets)? Should we wait on Kizer and instead invest in a cheaper QB1 option like Sam Bradford, AJ Mccaron, and Derek Anderson and hope Kizer can beat them out?

 

Next year's free agency is going to be wild...........

 

If we get Jimmy G or Kirk, we'll have to make the highest paid QB in the league (especially if Brees and Stafford's contracts set the market price). That's a lot of cap space. That then puts Kizer on ice. Maybe he stinks it up this year and that's the best option....but if he balls out do you pass on one of the top QB free agents?

 

I think if New England is smart they will franchise Jimmy G at the end of the season. If they don't, I'm all in on Jimmy G next season; however, a lot of people think that he's going Shannahans way to the 49ers.

I'm not a big Kirk Cousins fan but he'd help us progress the position.

Beyond those names, Teddy Bridgewater and Sam Bradford are very interesting alternative options. A healthy bridgewater is like an Alex Smith; however, Sam Bradford would do wonders in Hue Jacksons offense. There are injury concerns but if the Vikes push all in on Teddy if say he recovers from injury, I really wouldn't mind a Sam Bradford backed up by a surging/developing Kizer.

 

Worse comes to worse we sign AJ Mccaron as the affordable QB1. His nfl snaps thus far and film have been outstanding and far surpass Jimmy G. I did an extensive write up on it back on the old site where I went through all his games and broke it down. Needless to say...I believe Mccaron is misunderstood due to perceived personality flaws and pre-draft media rumors/innuendo. What he's put on film in limited action is strong in terms of showing off a plus arm with touch and accuracy. All things that I doubted he had coming out of Bama...I admit I bought into all the predraft rumors.

 

The best thing about Mccaron as a consolation prize is that he'll be substantially cheaper and therefore the perfect place holder in the event that Kizer or one of the soon to be drafted QB rookies wins out next years QB competition.

 

 

 

 

Remembered this discussion from a while ago...

Jimmy G we may need you....Sashi and Hue make it rain on Jimmy...

I don't care anymore...make him one of the highest paid QB in the league so he takes a plane ride to cleveland...

I'm losing it... I knew what a rookie QB would bring...but I can't do it anymore...

Get Jimmy here...and at worse pay him 27 mil a year for 2 years then cut him if it doesn't work out

Jimmy G this time next year...

 

Don't franchise him Bill...just don't do it...

[matt27j]

The OL/TE's/RB's have combo blocking situations to work out. TE's gotta be better run blockers and Shon has to improve in pass pro. The WR's gotta be at least serviceable. That being said our TE's and RB's are a good receiving group. Deshone has shown good and bad.

I think at that point this team compares to Carr's rookie season but a better OL, defense, and coaching. 

Of course if we are always going to be 10 down in the second half you gotta throw to your WR's. If they can't get open, and they can't catch, then sacks and turnovers are inevitable.

So to be fair to Kizer mainly no bonehead turnovers and improved accuracy. Secondarily, I'd like to see less hesitancy in letting it rip deep like Hogan came in and did. Last would be coming off that first read sooner and using his eyes to keep safeties from breaking where he wants to go. 

 

[Reginaldm9]

Jimmy G isn't leaving New England. Brady's done after this season.