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Do you prefer Yards or points allowed as the metric of a team’s unit ranking?


CKS97

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For instance, the revered 2016 Broncos had the #1 ranked defense, but the Bengals allowed fewer points.

I think back to 2010 when the Chargers yardage wise had the #1 ranked offense AND defense, but were not close in terms of points (Steelers defense, Patriots offense respectively were #1 that year).

Or the famous 1991 Eagles defense that was ranked #1 across the board in total defense, fewest passing yards, rushing yards, and total yards allowed? The Dome Patrol Saints actually led the league in fewest points allowed.

Similarly in 1992, the Cowboys had the NFL’s #1 ranked defense, but New Orleans again allowed the fewest points that year- in fact, the ‘92 version of the Dome Patrol had the #1 single season scoring defense of the 1990s.

My favorite example of this is the 1998 Chargers: #1 ranked defense in yards, #18 ranked scoring defense (

Or offense, the 2009 Cowboys had the NFC's #2 ranked offense yardage wise, but were actually the lowest scoring NFC playoff team that year.

Or the 2003 Vikings having the #1 ranked offense yardage wise, but five teams scored more points (the #2 ranked offense yards wise, Kansas City, scored 68 more points than Minnesota that year)

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8 minutes ago, CKS97 said:

For instance, the revered 2016 Broncos had the #1 ranked defense, but the Bengals allowed fewer points.

I think back to 2010 when the Chargers yardage wise had the #1 ranked offense AND defense, but were not close in terms of points (Steelers defense, Patriots offense respectively were #1 that year).

Or the famous 1991 Eagles defense that was ranked #1 across the board in total defense, fewest passing yards, rushing yards, and total yards allowed? The Dome Patrol Saints actually led the league in fewest points allowed.

Similarly in 1992, the Cowboys had the NFL’s #1 ranked defense, but New Orleans again allowed the fewest points that year- in fact, the ‘92 version of the Dome Patrol had the #1 single season scoring defense of the 1990s.

My favorite example of this is the 1998 Chargers: #1 ranked defense in yards, #18 ranked scoring defense (

Or offense, the 2009 Cowboys had the NFC's #2 ranked offense yardage wise, but were actually the lowest scoring NFC playoff team that year.

Or the 2003 Vikings having the #1 ranked offense yardage wise, but five teams scored more points (the #2 ranked offense yards wise, Kansas City, scored 68 more points than Minnesota that year)

 

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Neither. DVOA. Point totals and yardage totals are only through 16 games, which is a small sample size. Sure it does tell you the good teams from the really bad teams, but it gets a little mushy between the good quality defensive units. Neither of those metrics also take into account scheduling. They don't take into account the hundreds of snaps that occur throughout the regular season. 

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I mean between the two, I'll take points allowed, but neither really accurately measures the level of play of a defense. Too much subjectivity in those stats.

I don't care if you give up 500 yards a game if you somehow manage to only give up 10 points a game.

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Of the two, for defense, definitely points. There are other better metrics, along with other stats that can help support, but points is definitely superior. You see varying levels of aggressiveness depending on scheme, roster, and coaching, so I think yards are more likely to wind up being inaccurate. There's always at least a few teams/coaching staffs around the league that go heavy on a bend but don't break style, conceding yards but getting hyper aggressive on 3rd down and in the red zone. Leads to yards being rough but if,  executed well, an excellent scoring defense. Yards always won't always catch the impact of a great turnover defense.

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