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Is Cam Newton on a HOF pace?


TecmoSuperJoe

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22 hours ago, Yin-Yang said:

Did you read the post?

You bring up Cam’s supporting cast to defend him, and then just throw wins and stats against Stafford without taking his supporting cast into consideration at all. You can’t cut a guy slack for a poor environment and then not do the same for the other.

Or I guess you can, you’ll just sound biased at best and ignorant at worst.

I'm pretty certain it is universally regarded as a truth that JB Cooter is a better playcaller than Mike Shula. And the same goes for the Panthers running game working because of Cam's ability to run the ball (option, scrambles, best short yard rusher in league, etc). The Panthers (generally) have a good defense and that's about as far as you'll get with Cam having a helpful supporting cast. Let's not forget that one of these QBs had Calvin Johnson and gets to play in a dome while the other did/does not.

Anyway, maybe this would be easier if you just got to the point and told me why I, or anyone for that matter, should think Stafford is as good as (or better than) Cam. I can't imagine a scenario where they trade places and Detroit gets worse or Carolina gets better.

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6 minutes ago, Zithers2 said:

I'm pretty certain it is universally regarded as a truth that JB Cooter is a better playcaller than Mike Shula. And the same goes for the Panthers running game working because of Cam's ability to run the ball (option, scrambles, best short yard rusher in league, etc). The Panthers (generally) have a good defense and that's about as far as you'll get with Cam having a helpful supporting cast. Let's not forget that one of these QBs had Calvin Johnson and gets to play in a dome while the other did/does not.

You realize JBC was only the OC for 3 years? And that he’s on blast right now because the Jets were basically calling his plays as they were run this past week? Even if you love JBC, Stafford spent most of his career with Scott Linehan and Joe Lombardi.

Stafford has largely had better receiving weapons. Newton has had better running backs, HCs, and defenses. Offensive lines are debatable, as I think Cam has had very up and very down play from his linemen.

6 minutes ago, Zithers2 said:

Anyway, maybe this would be easier if you just got to the point and told me why I, or anyone for that matter, should think Stafford is as good as (or better than) Cam. I can't imagine a scenario where they trade places and Detroit gets worse or Carolina gets better.

Again...not the point. 

The one and only point I made to you is your hypocritical view. 

“Newton should be considered a HOFer, his cast has always sucked.”

”Lulz Stafford is teh trash, hE cAnT eVeN wIn.”

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For a discussion about "pace," I think people are missing the actual numbers here.  Cam is absolutely on a HOF pace.  After seven seasons in the league, here are Cam's rushing statistics:

828 carries

4,320 yards

5.2 ypc

54 TDs

Based on his durability--yes, he's missed some games here and there, but he's been generally healthy, I don't think it's a stretch to assume that he can play another 7 seasons.  As he ages, will he be able to rush as effectively?  Who knows.  Safe bet is probably not quite as well.  But for the ease of calculation, let's just double those numbers.  That would give Cam over 8,500 yards and 108 TDs. 

Do you know how many RBs in NFL history have rushed for 8,500 yards?   Forty (40). Eighteen (18) of those have made the HOF, and that number is going to increase as some more recent players, Adrian Peterson for example, become eligible.  

Do you know how many RBs in NFL history have rushed for over 100 TDs?  Nine (9).  Of that group, only Adrian Peterson (a future lock) and Shaun Alexander (probably not, but an interesting argument potentially to be made) are currently not in the HOF.  If you lower the threshold to 90 TDs, you add in five HOFs (Barry Sanders, Jerome Bettis, Franco Harris, Curtis Martin, and Eric Dickerson).

Cam probably won't quite reach these thresholds, but he's probably going to get close.  He will basically have a near-HOF resume as a rusher by the time he is finished.  And that doesn't even include consideration of his passing statistics.  

So I think people are really missing the boat here.  What Cam is doing right now, even if you're not all that impressed by his passing ability, is unprecedented. A player that can be as effective moving the ball both in the air and on the ground hasn't come along before. 

As far as whether he actually makes the HOF, I could envision some grumpy old sportswriters with preconceived notions of him as a man and a player who are upset that he proved them wrong and can't grant him one iota of praise because of it not voting for him and keeping him out. 

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On 9/13/2018 at 6:37 PM, fraziafraze07 said:

For a discussion about "pace," I think people are missing the actual numbers here.  Cam is absolutely on a HOF pace.  After seven seasons in the league, here are Cam's rushing statistics:

828 carries

4,320 yards

5.2 ypc

54 TDs

Based on his durability--yes, he's missed some games here and there, but he's been generally healthy, I don't think it's a stretch to assume that he can play another 7 seasons.  As he ages, will he be able to rush as effectively?  Who knows.  Safe bet is probably not quite as well.  But for the ease of calculation, let's just double those numbers.  That would give Cam over 8,500 yards and 108 TDs. 

Do you know how many RBs in NFL history have rushed for 8,500 yards?   Forty (40). Eighteen (18) of those have made the HOF, and that number is going to increase as some more recent players, Adrian Peterson for example, become eligible.  

Do you know how many RBs in NFL history have rushed for over 100 TDs?  Nine (9).  Of that group, only Adrian Peterson (a future lock) and Shaun Alexander (probably not, but an interesting argument potentially to be made) are currently not in the HOF.  If you lower the threshold to 90 TDs, you add in five HOFs (Barry Sanders, Jerome Bettis, Franco Harris, Curtis Martin, and Eric Dickerson).

Cam probably won't quite reach these thresholds, but he's probably going to get close.  He will basically have a near-HOF resume as a rusher by the time he is finished.  And that doesn't even include consideration of his passing statistics.  

So I think people are really missing the boat here.  What Cam is doing right now, even if you're not all that impressed by his passing ability, is unprecedented. A player that can be as effective moving the ball both in the air and on the ground hasn't come along before. 

As far as whether he actually makes the HOF, I could envision some grumpy old sportswriters with preconceived notions of him as a man and a player who are upset that he proved them wrong and can't grant him one iota of praise because of it not voting for him and keeping him out. 

Very good post ? not a big fan of Cam as a person but if he stays healthy and plays for a number of years moving forward you have some good points 

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  • 1 year later...
On 14/09/2018 at 1:51 AM, emhoward said:

Panther Fan - Regardless of numbers I think he needs 2 or 3 more MVP-near seasons or at least 1 ring. We'll see. I also think he'll have better longevity than people think. 

Prefacing this by saying NO I don't predict we win another superbowl (I genuinely don't), but Cam is now at the place where he's most likely to win a ring. IF he does, and plays well enough (but not MVP), what do you say then?

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On 7/2/2020 at 4:17 AM, Hunter2_1 said:

Prefacing this by saying NO I don't predict we win another superbowl (I genuinely don't), but Cam is now at the place where he's most likely to win a ring. IF he does, and plays well enough (but not MVP), what do you say then?

He'll still need to rebound in a big way and sustain his level of play for four seasons or so, in my opinion. I'm talking more of those incredible Superman highlights that made him so special in the first place, because what's in between those plays, while not necessarily bad, isn't going to put him into the Hall. Right now, his arc isn't too dissimilar to Vick's minus crime, especially if the Pats help him continue to evolve the way that the Turners WERE - a short, rhythmic passing game that took pressure off of both his arm and legs and minimized the strain on his protection, but required consistency on a snap-to-snap basis. Not TOO dissimilar to what we saw Reich do with Luck in Luck's final season, but Reich had more wrinkles and better timing on when to challenge defenses. 

Anyways, I'm projecting McDaniels to do something similar, but also utilize Cam occasionally as a runner. I'm not sure that they're comfortable running someone like Newton into the ground, considering his history, and I doubt they'll make him run an Arians-type offense, either. They'll ease him back in with a watered-down version of something like they ran with Brady, and add a few wrinkles to give Newton a chance to make plays that only he can really make. 

He'll need to be able to both execute and stay healthy, and then give the Pats enough confidence to re-sign him and open up the offense some more next season, and then execute at that point, while having serious highlights. 

Right now, it's even more of a stretch that Cam will eventually reach the Hall, but if he can be electric again, and the Patriots trust him, then he has a shot. If he ends up with another team after the year, his chances are probably gone, because even if he's good, the other team is probably taking him as a stopgap/sacrifice for a rookie to overthrow at the first INT. Or they won't have a tailor-made offense already in place, and he'll have to earn trust all over again, and then you're talking about him having his first REAL shot to have an incredible season two or three years from now.

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On 7/2/2020 at 10:17 AM, Hunter2_1 said:

Prefacing this by saying NO I don't predict we win another superbowl (I genuinely don't), but Cam is now at the place where he's most likely to win a ring. IF he does, and plays well enough (but not MVP), what do you say then?

Why do you think the Patriots won't win another Super Bowl? Brady? AFC getting stronger?

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18 hours ago, Drained said:

Why do you think the Patriots won't win another Super Bowl? Brady? AFC getting stronger?

Mostly odds, really. It's hard to win a SB, even for BB he's won it 6 times as HC from 17 attempts. But also the Tom Brady thing, yeah. We have a relatively poor roster that TB can't cover up now, and BB is getting older etc....I obviously wouldn't bet on it though xD

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On 9/13/2018 at 7:37 PM, fraziafraze07 said:

For a discussion about "pace," I think people are missing the actual numbers here.  Cam is absolutely on a HOF pace.  After seven seasons in the league, here are Cam's rushing statistics:

828 carries

4,320 yards

5.2 ypc

54 TDs

Based on his durability--yes, he's missed some games here and there, but he's been generally healthy, I don't think it's a stretch to assume that he can play another 7 seasons.  As he ages, will he be able to rush as effectively?  Who knows.  Safe bet is probably not quite as well.  But for the ease of calculation, let's just double those numbers.  That would give Cam over 8,500 yards and 108 TDs. 

Do you know how many RBs in NFL history have rushed for 8,500 yards?   Forty (40). Eighteen (18) of those have made the HOF, and that number is going to increase as some more recent players, Adrian Peterson for example, become eligible.  

Do you know how many RBs in NFL history have rushed for over 100 TDs?  Nine (9).  Of that group, only Adrian Peterson (a future lock) and Shaun Alexander (probably not, but an interesting argument potentially to be made) are currently not in the HOF.  If you lower the threshold to 90 TDs, you add in five HOFs (Barry Sanders, Jerome Bettis, Franco Harris, Curtis Martin, and Eric Dickerson).

Cam probably won't quite reach these thresholds, but he's probably going to get close.  He will basically have a near-HOF resume as a rusher by the time he is finished.  And that doesn't even include consideration of his passing statistics.  

So I think people are really missing the boat here.  What Cam is doing right now, even if you're not all that impressed by his passing ability, is unprecedented. A player that can be as effective moving the ball both in the air and on the ground hasn't come along before. 

As far as whether he actually makes the HOF, I could envision some grumpy old sportswriters with preconceived notions of him as a man and a player who are upset that he proved them wrong and can't grant him one iota of praise because of it not voting for him and keeping him out. 

I was going to say no, but this makes me think maybe...

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Forgive the below speech from a Cameron Jerrell Newton apologist.  TL/DR, should Cam return healthy and play to age 35, he should definitely get into the HOF, even projecting relatively modest production.

When I wrote the post above right at the beginning of the 2018 season, Cam's prospects looked a bit different.  Now, he's lost an entire season (final two games of 2018 and final 14 games of 2019) to injury, and you could honestly call it more like a season and a half, because it was clear that post-TJ Watt hit in 2018, he was playing injured prior to being shut down toward the end of the season.  That's prevented him from maintaining the statistical pace that he was previously on, as he has added only another 486 yards and 4 rushing TDs over the past two seasons played.  I personally don't believe that we will have football in 2020 due to COVID, and if that's the case, that would have Cam sitting at 4,806 rushing yards and 58 rushing TDs entering the 2021 season at age 32

I would think, given multiple years to heal from both his shoulder and lisfranc injuries, that Cam will return to a healthy and capable QB. When healthy in 2018, he showed that in a Norv Turner offense, he had the discipline, intelligence, and accuracy to throw the ball effectively. Most Cam critics like to knock him for inaccuracy, but the truth of the matter is, prior to running Turner's offense, Cam was asked to operate a passing scheme with very little margin for error.  Under both Chudzinski and Mike Shula, he was asked to push the ball down the field and was consistently among the league leaders in average air yards per attempt.  These types of throws are obviously lower percentage throws than shorter, underneath stuff, and Carolina's inability or disinterest in providing Cam with better receiving targets exacerbated that issue. Under Turner, operating an offense that did not require such difficult throws, Cam was completing over 2/3 of his passes and had a passer rating over 100.  And in that time, Turner did not deemphasize the run so much that it cut that drastically into Cam's rushing performance. He still had almost 500 yards and 4 TDs in 14 games, almost half of which he played injured. 

So where does that leave us projection wise?  Assuming football resumes in 2021 with Cam entering the season at age 32, I would give him another 4 years of playing time before retiring having just completed his age 35 season.  He may be able to play longer, as there are plenty of QBs who have played into their late-30s. But even if Cam can, it's likely that his rushing abilities would decline enough by age 35 that he's not going to significantly accumulate more rushing yards and TDs past that point to really change our conclusions from this exercise.  Let's assume that partly due to changes in offensive philosophy under Belichick and/or other future coaches and partly due to just being older that Cam, that he averages 400 yards and 5 TDs each of those 4 years, accruing an additional 1,600 yards and 20 TDs for his career.  Note that Cam has only had one "full" season with less than 5 rushing TDs (the shortened 2018) or 400 yards (2016--also dealt with some injuries at the end). That does not consider 2019 as a full season since he only played 2 games. So those benchmarks are reasonable and represent the low end of his past production.

That would place his totals at 6,406 yards and 78 TDs. That would tie him with Ricky Watters for the 22nd most all-time rushing TDs. Of the 21 men ahead of him, 14 are in the HOF and at least 3 or 4 of the remaining 7 are likely to be inducted some day.  For rushing yards, obviously a lot less impressive than his previous projected total I had arrived at of 8,500, but this would still put him at the 76th most rushing yards of all time regardless of position (right behind Arian Foster) and at 1st all time for a QB, breaking Vick's current record of 6,109. That resume is probably bordeline HOF on its own, considering he's a QB and not a RB.  Those numbers have to be viewed in context and given some extra weight.

Since those numbers are worse than I last projected forward in 2018, let's go ahead and consider the passing stats he might achieve if he plays to age 35.  I'm a big believer that Cam is a good passer.  Critiques of his accuracy in the past have largely ignored the context of what his offense asked him to do, as I briefly touched on above, and I think the first half of 2018 showed that Cam can be a very productive passer in the future if healthy and in an offense that doesn't ask so much of him. That being said, for argument's sake, I'll be conservative here. Let's assume Cam averages the following stat line for the 4 years, playing in ball control offenses that run more often than the rest of the league and don't push the ball downfield through the air:  280 completions, 450 attempts, 62.5% completion percentage, 3,200 yards, 7.1 yards per attempt. That works out to a QB rating of 87.  Not anything to write home about in this era of inflated passing statistics, but competent enough to hold a job, particularly when combined with what he brings to the table rushing. Adding up those totals, he'd finish his career with 41,841 yards (18th all time) and 262 passing TDs (18th all time, 7 ahead of him currently in the HOF, but most of the others will eventually be elected as well). Of course, I haven't projected forward stats for other active QBs that could also climb these leader boards such as Matthew Stafford.

Stats are not the be-all, end-all when it comes to HOF enshrinement. But when you consider where Cam's output would end up in the scenario above, he has to be in the HOF. No other player in history has been able to combine different kinds of production like he has, and I think that is also something that voters should take into account.  If Cam can't play another 4 years, is he in? I'd say no. He has been an exciting player that has made many jaw dropping players, and despite less statistical accrual, his uniqueness would still present a fair argument. For example, gale Sayers is in the HOF despite not accruing a lot of stats, but he was uniquely gifted and exciting as well. But I still think voters would keep Cam out.  Hell, as I said in 2018, there a bunch of sport writers out there that don't like Cam as a person and also have preconceived notions/misunderstandings of who he is as a passer probably would still vote against him even if we played my scenario out 4 years.

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On 7/8/2020 at 7:11 AM, Hunter2_1 said:

Basically it all comes down to health, because production wise - he's in, if he plays.

Agreed, and lets say he has a couple/few good seasons with the Patriots and even wins a couple playoff games, that will be enough to do it IMO

If he plays 3-5 more seasons and ends up with say

40,000+ Passing yards

250+  Passing TDs

7,000+ Rushing Yards

70+ Rushing TDs

MVP

Super Bowl appearance

I don't know how you keep him out

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The only argument for him getting in are his rushing stats coupled with his MVP. He's nowhere near a Hall of Fame caliber player. By the time he's eligible for the Hall 40,000 yards and 250 TDs won't be anything special and it's not like he's that close to those numbers right now.

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