Is Cam Newton on a HOF pace?

[RandyMossIsBoss]

Not even close to a HOF pace. He's only had 1 standout year, the rest has been fringe hall of very good efforts. Of course with QBs, all it takes is a SB to change that HOF trajectory drastically. At his current pace, I'd say he'd end up fairly neck and neck with McNabb in the eyes of voters.

 

 

2 hours ago, MSURacerDT55 said:

Well by all means add the context

Cannot blindly compare the raw stats of a modern day passer with one from the 1980s. Cam's rookie year saw 4 passers who would have broken the single season yardage mark in Dan's rookie year. Marino was rewriting the record books and putting up numbers nobody else was coming close to.

Here's passer rating through the lenses of PFR's advanced passing stats which adjust for era and assign a value to each stat, with 100 translating to league average at the time.

• Passer Rating Index
  • Cam: 97
  • Dan: ~119

2011-17 league average pass YPG: 234.7

1983-89 league average pass YPG: 205.1

• Cam and Dan's pass YPG compared to league average through their first 7 seasons
  • Cam: -4.7 YPG
  • Dan: +65.3 YPG

 

Of course we cannot ignore Cam's running ability, the part of his game that even makes a conversation like this exist, but that cannot really be compared in any way with passing stats. We could look at their team's total offensive output, but a lot more different factors play into that then what just goes into passing stats. Easier to just ask yourself: does Cam's running ability close the large gap in their passing ability? I'd say no, not by a long shot. 

Also worth nothing, Marino was a 4x all-pro (3x 1st) and 5x pro bowler in his first 7 seasons, while Cam has only been named all-pro once (1st), and to 3 pro bowls (1x alternate).

 

[MSURacerDT55]

8 minutes ago, RandyMossIsBoss said:

Not even close to a HOF pace. He's only had 1 standout year, the rest has been fringe hall of very good efforts. Of course with QBs, all it takes is a SB to change that HOF trajectory drastically. At his current pace, I'd say he'd end up fairly neck and neck with McNabb in the eyes of voters.

 

 

Cannot blindly compare the raw stats of a modern day passer with one from the 1980s. Cam's rookie year saw 4 passers who would have broken the single season yardage mark in Dan's rookie year. Marino was rewriting the record books and putting up numbers nobody else was coming close to.

Here's passer rating through the lenses of PFR's advanced passing stats which adjust for era and assign a value to each stat, with 100 translating to league average at the time.

• Passer Rating Index
  • Cam: 97
  • Dan: ~119

2011-17 league average pass YPG: 234.7

1983-89 league average pass YPG: 205.1

• Cam and Dan's pass YPG compared to league average through their first 7 seasons
  • Cam: -4.7 YPG
  • Dan: +65.3 YPG

 

Of course we cannot ignore Cam's running ability, the part of his game that even makes a conversation like this exist, but that cannot really be compared in any way with passing stats. We could look at their team's total offensive output, but a lot more different factors play into that then what just goes into passing stats. Easier to just ask yourself: does Cam's running ability close the large gap in their passing ability? I'd say no, not by a long shot. 

Also worth nothing, Marino was a 4x all-pro (3x 1st) and 5x pro bowler in his first 7 seasons, while Cam has only been named all-pro once (1st), and to 3 pro bowls (1x alternate).

 

cool

[footbull3196]

Absolutely not.  If anything's hes headed for the Donovan McNabb mold - very good, but not good enough to make the HOF and was consistently near the back end of the top 10 quarterbacks in the league aside from 1 or 2 stand out seasons.  Guess who else fits that mold?  Matt Ryan.  Nobody is about to argue that he should be anywhere near the HOF

[footbull3196]

13 minutes ago, MSURacerDT55 said:

cool

cool = I'm not smart enough to come up with an actual response longer than a sentence now that my lazy and oversimplified argument has been easily disproven by someone with more than half a brain

[MSURacerDT55]

4 minutes ago, footbull3196 said:

cool = I'm not smart enough to come up with an actual response longer than a sentence now that my lazy and oversimplified argument has been easily disproven by someone with more than half a brain

sweet?

[JAF-N72EX]

54 minutes ago, Toomers said:

The only point you made was that you have early onset Alzheimer’s. Everything to said was false. Horribly. 

And Rivers gets excuses for coaching when Cam has had Mike Shula as an OC for the majority of his career. What did Mike McCoy do prior to SD? Hmmm....

First of all, if you have a point then please make it. No need to throw around childish insults and continue to be obtuse while clinching onto a simple mistake that really has very little bearing in the scheme of things just to try an deflect the point. You didn't see me pointing out that you were wrong while you were trying to correct me by saying there was only a 2 years difference between Peyton and Brady when it's actually 3, did you? No. That's because it's a petty thing to do. 

Anyhow, I don't need stats or anything else to use as a deciding factor to know whether or not Newton is on his way Canton. I just know that I have never watched Cam and went "Wow! Now that's one of the best ever". Which are what the HoF slots are saved for - the best of the best.

But I'm done here. 

Edited September 4, 2018 by JustAnotherFan

[Soko]

Cam isn’t anywhere close to being a HOFer. Nor is he on pace.

[TheVillain112]

52 minutes ago, Toomers said:

Now. Make Dalton the greatest running QB of all time. And give him an MVP. And playoff success. They see that along with stats. 

Even if you add in the rushing stats, it's not as large of a disparity as you think.  At least not one that make Cam a HOF QB, while Dalton is a guy that arguably should be replaced as a starter:

Cam: 4,320 (Rushing yards), 54 (Rushing TDs)
Dalton: 1,049 (Rushing yards), 18 (Rushing TDs)

The 3,271 more rushing yards and 36 more rushing TDs are impressive no doubt.  But when you factor in the passing numbers Cam has what about ~2,700 more yards and 27 more TDs than Dalton?  Not a HOF pace, when voters look at Cams numbers compared to those in his era.  As @Danger stated a HOF Talent doesn't mean he's a HOF player (yet)...

[footbull3196]

59 minutes ago, Toomers said:

Now. Make Dalton the greatest running QB of all time. And give him an MVP. And playoff success. They see that along with stats. 

Lol I wasn't aware that a 3-4 record in the playoffs was considered playoff success (with one of those wins coming against Ryan Lindsey so it doesn't even really count).  He had one impressive run in his MVP season that was his only stand out season.  He's had no playoff success outside of that.  The only way this is considered playoff success is in comparison to Dalton who's 0-5 in the playoffs.  If you consider that to be the standard for postseason play then I don't know what to tell you

Edited September 4, 2018 by footbull3196

[Elky]

Cam's 2015 campaign can actually hurt him; because it is such an outlier compared to his other campaigns, it can be seen as a fluke.

Edited September 4, 2018 by Elky

[Toomers]

56 minutes ago, JustAnotherFan said:

First of all, if you have a point then please make it. No need to throw around childish insults and continue to be obtuse while clinching onto a simple mistake that really has very little bearing in the scheme of things just to try an deflect the point. You didn't see me pointing out that you were wrong while you were trying to correct me by saying there was only a 2 years difference between Peyton and Brady when it's actually 3, did you? No. That's because it's a petty thing to do. 

Anyhow, I don't need stats or anything else to use as a deciding factor to know whether or not Newton is on his way Canton. I just know that I have never watched Cam and went "Wow! Now that's one of the best ever". Which are what the HoF slots are saved for - the best of the best.

But I'm done here. 

You didn’t correct me because you would have been wrong again. You want to tell me how Peyton(1998) and Brady(2000) are 3 years apart. But I’m glad you’re not petty enough to bring it up. And your “mistakes” went directly towards your point about QBs and their peers. There is a big difference between 8 years and 2-3. I also showed multiple QBs who played together. But pointing out a flaw in your statements is petty. 

  Don’t really care how you feel about Cam. I just pointed out flaws in your argument and statements used to back them up. Sorry if it offended you.

[Toomers]

1 hour ago, footbull3196 said:

Absolutely not.  If anything's hes headed for the Donovan McNabb mold - very good, but not good enough to make the HOF and was consistently near the back end of the top 10 quarterbacks in the league aside from 1 or 2 stand out seasons.  Guess who else fits that mold?  Matt Ryan.  Nobody is about to argue that he should be anywhere near the HOF

Someone in this thread already argued that about Ryan.

[Toomers]

55 minutes ago, TheVillain112 said:

Even if you add in the rushing stats, it's not as large of a disparity as you think.  At least not one that make Cam a HOF QB, while Dalton is a guy that arguably should be replaced as a starter:

Cam: 4,320 (Rushing yards), 54 (Rushing TDs)
Dalton: 1,049 (Rushing yards), 18 (Rushing TDs)

The 3,271 more rushing yards and 36 more rushing TDs are impressive no doubt.  But when you factor in the passing numbers Cam has what about ~2,700 more yards and 27 more TDs than Dalton?  Not a HOF pace, when voters look at Cams numbers compared to those in his era.  As @Danger stated a HOF Talent doesn't mean he's a HOF player (yet)...

 Keep adding. All-Pro, MVP, playoff wins vs O for ever, being your teams leading rusher, not having AJ Green, having the worst OC in the NFL. 

   Again, I’m not saying he’s some lock, or even likely at this point. But not because of any of the reasons given so far. 

[patriotsheatyan]

Dalton was better than Newton in 2015 but lost out because he missed the last three games.

[footbull3196]

21 minutes ago, Toomers said:

Someone in this thread already argued that about Ryan.

I don't see anywhere that someone argued that Matt Ryan is a HOF'er.  I see one post where Ryan was hastily thrown into a group with elite QBs (though I'm not really sure why he was) to make an unrelated point about Cam not being on pace for the HOF.  I doubt anyone in their right mind would actually argue in favor of Ryan being a HOF'er unless he hadn't blown that 28-3 lead in the first place