The Post Khalil Mack Financial-Draft Pick Landscape

[WindyCity]

Obviously, the expectations and future team building plans have changed with a monumental deal and this is a look at how it might change for the Bears after Khalil Mack.

2018 Cap Space: 11.1 million

The NFLPA has the Bears at 11.1 million in cap space. That is more than enough entering the season.
What I would do,

Eddie Goldman

4 years 40 million/24 guaranteed + 1 year 2 million= 5 years 42 million/24 guaranteed

Year 1: 5 guaranteed base/2 million signing bonus [7]
Year 2: 4 guaranteed base/2 million signing bonus [6]
Year 3: 3 million base/2 million signing bonus/5 roster bonus [9]
Year 4: 7 million base/2 million signing bonus [9]
Year 5: 8 million base/2 million signing bonus [10]

The Bears should use the remaining cap space they have to take care of Goldman for a couple of reasons,
1.    He is more valuable than Adrian Amos to the defense.
2.    He is going to command more money than Amos with the safety market

Draft Picks

The Bears need to do what they can to stockpile mid-late round picks with trades. The Deinodre Hall move was a great example of adding some quantity to a low-quality draft pool.

Guys I would dangle in case of injuries around the league.

-Kevin White
-Aaron Lynch or Sam Acho
-Dion Sims, depending on Shaheen health.

[WindyCity]

2019 Cap Space: 23 Millions

Cuts

Dion Sims 6 million
Sam Acho 2.5 million
Bradley Sowell 1.5 million

33 million
*Danny Trevathan 6.4 million, would depend on health and Kwiatowski’s development.

-The Bears will pretty easily get to 33 million in cap space entering into the 2019 offseason, which is a healthy position to be in.

-It is not spend like crazy on everyone, but it is healthy enough that they should not get bullied by other teams.

-The Bears also will only need about 2.5 million for their draft pool, which is a weird positive from the Khalil Mack trade.

Free Agents

Keep

Cody Whitehair 5 years 52 million/22 guaranteed-6 years 53 million/22 guaranteed [9]
Eddie Goldman [who I would extend in 2018] cap hit [6 million].
Adrian Amos 3 years 19.5 million/10 guaranteed [Ricardo Allen] [6.5]
Daniel Brown 2 years 2.1 million [Marquise Gray] [1.05]
RRH ERFA 750k     Offer: 5 years 25 million/8 guaranteed [Stacy McGee]
Rashard Coward ERFA 750k
Isiah Irving ERFA  750k

Gone

Bobbie Massie
Aaron Lynch
Kevin White

-The reality of the Mack deal is that the Bears are not going to be active in free agency next offseason, which I never thought was the plan after the aggressive moves the made before Khalil Mack was traded for.

-The Bears should very easily be able to keep their key players. There is more than enough money for Amos and Goldman and other key guys like RRH are ERFA and will make nothing.

-The Bears are probably going to be backup shopping in free agency, but with only 1 starting player that needs to be replaced [Massie] that isn’t bad and Massie looks like he has an in house replacement option in Coward.

[WindyCity]

2019 Draft

The loss of picks is going to sting, but there are a couple of factors that make it a little less painful for me.

1.    The Bears were going to have to draft an OLB in the 1st round anyway.
2.    The Bears do not have needs at premium positions like OLB, QB, WR, CB, or LT. Having needs at those areas would only expose further the missing picks. The Vikings were without a 1st round pick 2 years ago, but needed a RB and C and were able to add starting caliber players in the 2nd and 3rd round.

What has to happen?

1.    The Bears need to do everything in their power to add day 3 picks and conditional picks and hope that while they may not be making high picks that they are making at least 7-8 picks and get some quantity.
2.    They need to use these picks to get depth at a few key spots so that they can bypass free agency and save some money.
3.    They need to sit back and eat the lack of top picks this year. No more dealing future picks.

Limited Resources Mock Draft

I know this will be horridly outdated and useless in terms of actual predictions, but I think it acts as a decent visual for seeing what the Bears might be able to do in a limited resource draft.

The explanations are more about the positions and the positions of the picks than the actual players.
 
3. OT Max Scharping [Northern Illinois] 6’6” 315lbs.

The Bears are going to need a RT and moving on from Massie makes a ton of sense, especially with the emergence of Coward, but the Bears lack quality depth and competition at RT and as a swing OT. The Bears need to add a talented OT that can be developed by Hiestand and provide depth in their first season. I am looking for a player that has played both RT and LT and who has a number of starts under his belt as I am relying on him in 2019 to provide some competition and an option. Scharping has played LT and RT and is a team captain and has OT physical tools.

4. CB Jamal Peters [Mississippi St] 6’2” 210lbs.

The Bears have the most stability at CB that they have had in years, but they need to develop players that can start outside. Tolliver has an interesting camp and was well worth keeping around, but after that the Bears do not have a ton of developmental talent. This is important because if there is a cao squeeze at some point I think Prince could be gone as he really signed a 2 year deal. The Bears clearly like to have some size and physicality at the CB spot. By adding a big CB like Peters to Tolliver the Bears have 2 outside CBs for the future that they are letting Donatel work with.

5. S Mike Edwards [Kentucky] 5’11” 205lbs.

The Bears need more depth at safety and they need someone with a skill set similar to Eddie Jackson that can possibly step in at FS. They need someone with the range and ball skills that Deon Bush lacks as a backup. Bush has looked strong in the preseason, but he has looked good in the Amos role, and we know that they are 2 different positions based on Amos’ struggles at one and success at the other.

7. TE Matt Sokol [Michigan St] 6’6” 255lbs.

The Bears are paying a 3rd TE almost exclusively blocking TE 6 million this season, which is a massive waste of resources. Sims’ value increases with the Shaheen injury, but based on the cap there is almost 0 chance he is on the team next year when the Bears can save 6 million by cutting him. Needing a blocking TE is not a bad spot to be, especially when you have your top 2 guys in place. The Bears can invest a day 3 pick in a big TE that can be used in blocking packages and short yardage. Sokol is a big bodied TE that comes from a run first team and can fill the role.

7. RB Darrin Hall [Pitt] 5’11” 225lbs.

I think that the main casualty of the Khalil Mack trade could be Jordan Howard. I am not convinced that the Bears are going to re-sign him to a big money deal based on the position that he plays and the resources that they have allocated in other spots. The Bears should continue to find a cheap replacement for him. Hall probably never becomes Jordan Howard, but they need to add developmental players that can handle the punishment that Howard takes.

[dll2000]

Now do 2020.

[JAF-N72EX]

1 hour ago, WindyCity said:

Adrian Amos 3 years 19.5 million/10 guaranteed [Ricardo Allen] [6.5]

That's not happening. That might be his market value as of right now but if he has another good season he is going to be asking for top $ next year. And with Rams Lamarcus Joyner being tagged this year and set to be a FA, this will more than likely end up being a waiting war between them to see where the market is set at. That is unless the Rams and Joyner reach an agreement mid-season and sets the market for Amos.

 Keep in mind also, we just paid Fuller top-5 CB money after just good one year. Albeit, at a more valuable position. 

So if Amos has another good season, he's gonna be pricey. If he sucks, then we have another whole to fill.  

[AZBearsFan]

2 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

That's not happening. That might be his market value as of right now but if he has another good season he is going to be asking for top $ next year. And with Rams Lamarcus Joyner being tagged this year and set to be a FA, this will more than likely end up being a waiting war between them to see where the market is set at. That is unless the Rams and Joyner reach an agreement mid-season and sets the market for Amos.

 Keep in mind also, we just paid Fuller top-5 CB money after just good one year. Albeit, at a more valuable position. 

So if Amos has another good season, he's gonna be pricey. If he sucks, then we have another whole to fill.  

Don’t let his Madden and PFF rankings fool you - Amos is a 40-game starter I’m the secondary with one INT, which was a tipped pass that found him. It wasn’t even him making a play on the ball. He’s a solid but not elite box safety. He’s not an impact player, so let’s not pay him like one. IMO, there is at least one better safety on just about every roster in the NFL than Amos. I think what he brings is pretty replaceable. If you gave me the choice of $7M annually for Amos in 2019 or Deon Bush/3rd tier UFA and a 2020 comp pick I’m taking the latter every single time. And I’m not sold on Bush at all. 

[Madmike90]

2 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

Don’t let his Madden and PFF rankings fool you - Amos is a 40-game starter I’m the secondary with one INT, which was a tipped pass that found him. It wasn’t even him making a play on the ball. He’s a solid but not elite box safety. He’s not an impact player, so let’s not pay him like one. IMO, there is at least one better safety on just about every roster in the NFL than Amos. I think what he brings is pretty replaceable. If you gave me the choice of $7M annually for Amos in 2019 or Deon Bush/3rd tier UFA and a 2020 comp pick I’m taking the latter every single time. And I’m not sold on Bush at all. 

I think when you look at what has happened in the safety market this offseason very few safeties at all are going to get paid...Amos will get a mid level deal and nothing more.

[51to54]

6 hours ago, WindyCity said:

The Bears also will only need about 2.5 million for their draft pool, which is a weird positive from the Khalil Mack trade.

The loss of picks is going to sting, but there are a couple of factors that make it a little less painful for me.

 

Thanks for yet another well thought out and detailed analysis that's good reading, but one thing stood out.

When I combined comments from two of your posts I could not help to think of it's similar when you tell your buddy who is worried his girl friend is ugly that "at least if she dumps you it won't be as painful as if a cute gal dumps you" kind of silver lining, but in this case it's very apt.

As with Miller when we used a 2019 second round pick to draft him in 2018, we not only "drafted" a DPOY with our 2019 and 2020 1st rounders and not only cut rookie salaries for the next two seasons too. A gold lining is that, barring some monster Pace Jedi trade, we won't be blowing 3-4 years of top rookie money on the next Kevin White, but on a DPOY level player.

[Sugashane]

I just don't see how Goldman is worth $10 mil. Hicks is more than $2 mil per year better than him. $10 mil per year puts him at the 15th highest paid DT in the league. The only ones making that money are great passrushers, except for Star and Williams. But both of them are FAR better run stuffers than he is. I'd rather get Beau Allen at $5 mil per year than Goldman at $10 mil per year.

 

Safeties have dropped their market, but Amos is young so he might still get a decent payday.

[topwop1]

3 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

Don’t let his Madden and PFF rankings fool you - Amos is a 40-game starter I’m the secondary with one INT, which was a tipped pass that found him. It wasn’t even him making a play on the ball. He’s a solid but not elite box safety. He’s not an impact player, so let’s not pay him like one. IMO, there is at least one better safety on just about every roster in the NFL than Amos. I think what he brings is pretty replaceable. If you gave me the choice of $7M annually for Amos in 2019 or Deon Bush/3rd tier UFA and a 2020 comp pick I’m taking the latter every single time. And I’m not sold on Bush at all. 

I have to disagree with this. He may not be an elite safety with crazy stats but he's a solid starter and this team could do a lot worse. That said I don't think he will command a crazy deal in the offseason and if he does then Bears will have options to replace him with guys like Eric Reid or Kenny Vaccaro.

[AZBearsFan]

54 minutes ago, topwop1 said:

I have to disagree with this. He may not be an elite safety with crazy stats but he's a solid starter and this team could do a lot worse. That said I don't think he will command a crazy deal in the offseason and if he does then Bears will have options to replace him with guys like Eric Reid or Kenny Vaccaro.

I don’t disagree that he’s a solid starter. He is. He’s just a limited one. I don’t really see any upside though. He’s already a good run defender from the SS spot. Not a ton of room for growth there, and he’s not likely to all of a sudden have ball skills. He’s basically an undersized LB playing SS. I think if you look at every roster there’s probably at least one safety with a skill set that’s strong in one aspect of the position and deficient in another. That isn’t really a high standard to meet IMO. 

[WindyCity]

1 hour ago, Sugashane said:

I just don't see how Goldman is worth $10 mil. Hicks is more than $2 mil per year better than him. $10 mil per year puts him at the 15th highest paid DT in the league. The only ones making that money are great passrushers, except for Star and Williams. But both of them are FAR better run stuffers than he is. I'd rather get Beau Allen at $5 mil per year than Goldman at $10 mil per year.

 

Safeties have dropped their market, but Amos is young so he might still get a decent payday.

Top NTs get 10/season.

He deserves that because he is very good at a very unique position. He may come in at 9 million/season, but it won’t be less than that to keep him from testing free agency.

[WindyCity]

6.5/season is top S money right now.

[Sugashane]

9 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

Top NTs get 10/season.

He deserves that because he is very good at a very unique position. He may come in at 9 million/season, but it won’t be less than that to keep him from testing free agency.

I just haven't seen how he is "very good." He does a pretty decent job of letting DT roam free, and we need that role for Smith since he gets swallowed up too regularly. I know you can't just do a 3-4 NT's effectiveness by their stats, they aren't 3Ts pinning their ears back constantly. If he can really keep them clean then great, I'm just not convinced his role is worth THAT much.

[JAF-N72EX]

3 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

Don’t let his Madden and PFF rankings fool you - Amos is a 40-game starter I’m the secondary with one INT, which was a tipped pass that found him. It wasn’t even him making a play on the ball. He’s a solid but not elite box safety. He’s not an impact player, so let’s not pay him like one. IMO, there is at least one better safety on just about every roster in the NFL than Amos. I think what he brings is pretty replaceable. If you gave me the choice of $7M annually for Amos in 2019 or Deon Bush/3rd tier UFA and a 2020 comp pick I’m taking the latter every single time. And I’m not sold on Bush at all. 

Oh I'm not fooled at all, believe me. PFF is garbage, always has been. They don't even use all-22. They hire a bunch of college kids (cheap labor) to jot down stats as the games are live and can barely spot the difference between zone and man coverage.  And I haven't even seen a Madden game in 10 years (not a gamer - never been my thing).

And I'm with you 100%, I 'm not paying Amos that much money...he can walk. I have said before that I believe last seasons success was more than likely an anomaly and had more to do with a good cast around him as a whole. Now, he has a chance to prove me wrong this season but I'm not holding my breath to be honest and alot of pessimism stems from his history (which we don't need to talk about). 

I look at him almost similar to a Daniel Manning type without the range. On one play he can look like a top end SS. But out of nowhere he will suddenly turn into Steltz 2.0. Neither were ever going to great but had the potential to be solid. And FYI I HATED the thought of Manning being named the starter. I had seen enough as backup and I saw trash before it was trash - but he did eventually grow on me and prove me wrong in a sense and I hope Amos can too.

That said, I dissagree that he was nothing more than average or solid last season. Ok solid, I'll agree with. I won't go overboard. But the one big thing that should not go ignored about him is the fact that he did a good job of holding down the fort and helping out whenever Prince went down or when Cooper got out-played and even when Fuller took over the LCB spot full-time in place of Prince (which I thought would be a disaster because neither Prince or Amos are exactly sprinters). He even did a solid job on plays with outside man-coverage when the offense would send Fuller's man in motion to create a bunch formation on the boundary leaving Amos' zone wide open with alot of options. And those are the type of plays that can tell you alot about the safety play in pass coverage because of the amount of space they have to cover in those situations and fast they have to read and react. (Although he did get burned on one of these last season IIRC).

Combine this with the fact that their wasn't ever a drop off on the defense even when Prince was out with an injury OR playing with an injury, deserves atleast some credit, IMO

Anyhow, back to the contracts. Strong safeties are never going to generate alot of INT's.....that's  just the nature of the position unless ou're Ed Reed. So judging them by that is just wrong (not saying your saying that, i'm just stating it for the record). 

Point is, Amos wasn't that bad last season, IMO. And if(a big IF) he can continue to progress and get better.... he would then have two(projected) solid-above average seasons on his resume at the age of 26 who has been coached by one of the best DC's in the business. That alone is going to have alot of teams looking at him. Especially since  alot of the older top dogs at saftey are on their way out. Such as; Chancellor, ET, Rashad and Berry could leave any minute now (though I hope not, I'm really rooting for him).  This paves the way for the young to grow and with that comes $.

Amos may only have 44 games / 40 starts with only 1 INT but this is the reason I brought up Joyner though. He's making 11.3M this year (3rd most among all safeties) on a tag and he has 52 games / 27 starts with only 3 INT's. If Amos blows up this season, his agent will have the league by their ***.