JAF-N72EX Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 37 minutes ago, WindyCity said: Top NTs get 10/season. He deserves that because he is very good at a very unique position. He may come in at 9 million/season, but it won’t be less than that to keep him from testing free agency. I gotta agree with Sugar on this. I like Goldman and I want him stay because he is a good fit for OUR defense but not at 10APY, no way. that said (without looking at other contracts right now) I doubt he would have very many suitors at that price anyhow. His name don't ring out like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZBearsFan Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 20 minutes ago, JustAnotherFan said: That said, I dissagree that he was nothing more than average or solid last season. Ok solid, I'll agree with. I won't go overboard. But the one big thing that should not go ignored about him is the fact that he did a good job of holding down the fort and helping out whenever Prince went down or when Cooper got out-played and even when Fuller took over the LCB spot full-time in place of Prince (which I thought would be a disaster because neither Prince or Amos are exactly sprinters). He even did a solid job on plays with outside man-coverage when the offense would send Fuller's man in motion to create a bunch formation on the boundary leaving Amos' zone wide open with alot of options. And those are the type of plays that can tell you alot about the safety play in pass coverage because of the amount of space they have to cover in those situations and fast they have to read and react. (Although he did get burned on one of these last season IIRC). This kind of hits my point. The things you’re describing here are not exceptional or even above average IMO. They are the requirements of the position. To be able to make most of the expected plays but very few of the exceptional ones is exactly what makes him in my mind a replacement level safety. And that has value - just limited value, especially when you are much tighter up against the cap like we will be for the next several seasons. We are going to need to replace guys in starting roles when their deals are up with guys on rookie contracts. That’s the pendulum swing of paying guys star money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZBearsFan Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said: This kind of hits my point. The things you’re describing here are not exceptional or even above average IMO. They are the requirements of the position. To be able to make most of the expected plays but very few of the exceptional ones is exactly what makes him in my mind a replacement level safety. And that has value - just limited value, especially when you are much tighter up against the cap like we will be for the next several seasons. We are going to need to replace guys in starting roles when their deals are up with guys on rookie contracts. That’s the pendulum swing of paying guys star money. I’m looking at it this way - going into 2019 would I rather have Trevathan at $6M, or Amos at $6M? Or a RT replacement for Massie? Or new money for Howard? Amos isn’t anywhere near as valuable as any of those IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAF-N72EX Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 33 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said: This kind of hits my point. The things you’re describing here are not exceptional or even above average IMO. They are the requirements of the position. To be able to make most of the expected plays but very few of the exceptional ones is exactly what makes him in my mind a replacement level safety. And that has value - just limited value, especially when you are much tighter up against the cap like we will be for the next several seasons. We are going to need to replace guys in starting roles when their deals are up with guys on rookie contracts. That’s the pendulum swing of paying guys star money. Ok, I THINK we're finally getting to the heart of our disagreement on the issue here. What you may consider simple requirements is not that simple though -- league average wise. Amos isn't anything special but trust me we could ALOT worse! Go ask the Bucs or Steelers fans. The Steelers signed a 29 yr old Burnett to a mid-size deal to take over at saftey and even though Burnett is no world beater, he is 10x better than the trash they have fielded over the years would gladly take Amos if he were to already have had 2 (projected) solid/above seasons under his belt. 25 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said: I’m looking at it this way - going into 2019 would I rather have Trevathan at $6M, or Amos at $6M? Or a RT replacement for Massie? Or new money for Howard? Amos isn’t anywhere near as valuable as any of those IMO. Tre vs Amos, definitely. That's a no brainer. Massie, no disagreement. Not starter material but could be a very solid backup on any team (edit) I would like to keep him for that reason but that's not going to be realistic giving his projected asking price and I'm not a backup even mid dollar) . Howard is another subject. I don't see him getting a second contract and I wouldn't blame Nagy one bit. Don't get me wrong, I love Howard but unless you;re prime AP or Marshawn....one-trick pony backs aren't going to fly in this league anymore and certainly not at his price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZBearsFan Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 1 hour ago, JustAnotherFan said: Ok, I THINK we're finally getting to the heart of our disagreement on the issue here. What you may consider simple requirements is not that simple though -- league average wise. Amos isn't anything special but trust me we could ALOT worse! Go ask the Bucs or Steelers fans. The Steelers signed a 29 yr old Burnett to a mid-size deal to take over at saftey and even though Burnett is no world beater, he is 10x better than the trash they have fielded over the years would gladly take Amos if he were to already have had 2 (projected) solid/above seasons under his belt. I don’t need to look at anyone else to know what bad safety play looks like - we’ve had it around these parts ourselves for a long time. I don’t think Amos is bad, and I agree we could do a lot worse. There are some teams that maybe don’t have a single competent safety but there are also teams like ours or the Jets that have more than one as well. I took them on a relative average and figured each team to have about one starter who’s good and one on whom they should be looking to upgrade. To me, Amos falls right near the line between the two groups. Replacement level isn’t poor. It’s average. A 0 WAR player. Amos is not gonna kill you back there most of the time, but he’s not a difference making player either. He’s just adequate. I think there are many safeties out there making either rookie contract money or low end veteran money who are producing comparably or better to Amos right now, especially if/when given the opportunity next to a good and ascending FS with 2 good corners next to them all behind a really good and potentially great front 7. I think you’re underselling Howard though. He’s a subpar receiver. No doubt. But he’s a REALLY good runner. He’s averaged 4.6 ypg the last 2 years against almost exclusively stacked fronts with an OC who for some reason basically refused to use him how he’s most effective (running from shotgun). He’s almost certainly never going to catch 60 passes for you, but he’s already shown he can catch 25-30 for you (52 catches on 2 years). He also doesn’t turn the ball over. He averages 1 fumble every 93 touches. That’s elite. He’s not likely ever gonna get Bell/Gurley money but at around that Carlos Hyde level (~$5M per) he’s a good value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted September 5, 2018 Author Share Posted September 5, 2018 I am not overly concerned if we lose Amos or Howard long term. I think you try to re-sign Amos to a reasonable contract and if he wants more you might have to move on. The challenge next year is that you do not really have the premium picks to replace him, so you may need a free agent. That is why I think signing Eric Reid now would be interesting as insurance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonserinNC Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 2 hours ago, WindyCity said: I am not overly concerned if we lose Amos or Howard long term. I think you try to re-sign Amos to a reasonable contract and if he wants more you might have to move on. The challenge next year is that you do not really have the premium picks to replace him, so you may need a free agent. That is why I think signing Eric Reid now would be interesting as insurance. I feel the same, Amos is like one of those players you just lose with a deal like this. Have to draft young talent. Im also not super concerned about draft picks to be honest. We literally only lost 2. And OLB would have been one anyway so we lost 1. The replacemtn for Amos was never going to be a 1st rounder in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beardown3231 Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 3 hours ago, WindyCity said: I am not overly concerned if we lose Amos or Howard long term. I think you try to re-sign Amos to a reasonable contract and if he wants more you might have to move on. The challenge next year is that you do not really have the premium picks to replace him, so you may need a free agent. That is why I think signing Eric Reid now would be interesting as insurance. They didn’t need a premium pick to get Amos so they certainly wouldn’t need one to find a replacement. Plus, it’s not like most teams would use a high pick on a SS in today’s NFL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkokot Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 On 9/4/2018 at 10:42 PM, Sugashane said: I just haven't seen how he is "very good." He does a pretty decent job of letting DT roam free, and we need that role for Smith since he gets swallowed up too regularly. I know you can't just do a 3-4 NT's effectiveness by their stats, they aren't 3Ts pinning their ears back constantly. If he can really keep them clean then great, I'm just not convinced his role is worth THAT much. To me, there are 2 types of NT's in the league, those who are good enough to regularly require a double team, and those that aren't. I think Goldman is the former, and given that we now have 2 legit pass rushers at the OLB position, and a good chance for better play from Bullard/RRH across from Hicks, commanding that double team will create some awesome 1 on 1 matchups for our pass rushers, in addition to keeping our ILB's clean. The lack of pass rush outside of Floyd (occasionally) and Hicks minimized Goldman's value. I think you'll see Mack get a lot of the credit, but I think he will shine because Goldman is doing his job in the middle. Put it this way, any time you see Mack destroying a TE who's trying to block him this season, you probably have Goldman to thank for that matchup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugashane Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 1 minute ago, bkokot said: To me, there are 2 types of NT's in the league, those who are good enough to regularly require a double team, and those that aren't. I think Goldman is the former, and given that we now have 2 legit pass rushers at the OLB position, and a good chance for better play from Bullard/RRH across from Hicks, commanding that double team will create some awesome 1 on 1 matchups for our pass rushers, in addition to keeping our ILB's clean. The lack of pass rush outside of Floyd (occasionally) and Hicks minimized Goldman's value. I think you'll see Mack get a lot of the credit, but I think he will shine because Goldman is doing his job in the middle. Put it this way, any time you see Mack destroying a TE who's trying to block him this season, you probably have Goldman to thank for that matchup. IDK. I just don't see any OC saying to double Goldman with Mack or Hicks there. If running in between the 3 and 6 holes sure, but when passing he is a nonfactor compared to Mack, Hicks and Floyd. When in an obvious passing situation he probably comes off. Probably Mack - Bullard - Hicks - Floyd on the DL. Any OC that puts Mack one on one with a TE is either running to the other side or an imbecile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkokot Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, Sugashane said: IDK. I just don't see any OC saying to double Goldman with Mack or Hicks there. If running in between the 3 and 6 holes sure, but when passing he is a nonfactor compared to Mack, Hicks and Floyd. When in an obvious passing situation he probably comes off. Probably Mack - Bullard - Hicks - Floyd on the DL. Any OC that puts Mack one on one with a TE is either running to the other side or an imbecile. You're right, no OC would choose to have Mack one on one with a TE, but you can force them into it schematically. When a 320lb man with any kind of movement ability crashes one of the A gaps, more often than not he will draw a double team by default unless the OL can collectively redirect the NT back towards the middle of the C so he can square up and block him. This forced double team cascades down the line and leads to 1 on 1 matchups for your better pass rushers. You obviously can't do this all the time, as you need your DL to cover 2 gaps each, but every now and then it can be really effective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmike90 Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Goldman is a huge part of the future and has to be resigned...Goldman and Hicks along are enough to control the LOS in the run game and keep guys off Smith and Danny T at ILB...that is huge considering both those guys skill sets...you then look at him as a pass rusher...as a pure NT there aren't many better pass rushers and if teams leave him one on one with a centre or reaching guard he has both the power and speed to take advantage of that and push the pocket especially if you keep him fresh which we now have the depth to do. I'm a big fan of Amos as well but when you look at that safety market guys just aren't getting paid which shows a clear trend...Amos is a mid level contract guy and if not we draft someone else or pick up a solid vet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugashane Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 9 hours ago, bkokot said: You're right, no OC would choose to have Mack one on one with a TE, but you can force them into it schematically. When a 320lb man with any kind of movement ability crashes one of the A gaps, more often than not he will draw a double team by default unless the OL can collectively redirect the NT back towards the middle of the C so he can square up and block him. This forced double team cascades down the line and leads to 1 on 1 matchups for your better pass rushers. You obviously can't do this all the time, as you need your DL to cover 2 gaps each, but every now and then it can be really effective. I see your point but I am talking with any type of regularity. Knowing Fangio doesn't blitz often the opposing OL would likely take their chances with Goldman being single blocked 99 times out of 100 over asking a TE to block Mack alone. A lot of teams don't even have their OTs block him without being chipped repeatedly. Like with the Super Bowl last year the Pats regularly doubled Cox inside and left , but Hicks is our version of Cox. Play-style wise Goldman is closer to Jernigan or Allen. He got a ton of one on one matchups last year and only had 5 QB hits. Now I am not worried about his production in terms of sacks and QB pressures, he is a pure old-school NT. His impact was in the run game, our ILBs need to be kept clean and he absorbs blocks and anchors really well. I want him re-signed, but is he only $2 mil AAV below Hicks' level? Hell no. Hicks is dominant and disruptive on both sides of the ball, Goldman is damn good on one side. Being one of the top pass rushing NTs isn't as impressive as it sounds. Most NTs are one role players who often get subbed out. If comparing to all DL who are 290 and above he is barely average IMO in the passrush dept. Maybe his reps being limited will help him be more productive (I want to see that before assuming it), but Hicks was far better with almost 300 snaps more than Goldman (while Eddie missed a game, so averaged out he'd be about 250 snaps shy of Hicks). If it comes to Goldman for $10 mil AAV vs Danny Shelton for $5 mil AAV, sign me up for Shelton. Goldman has the upper hand as a passrusher but Shelton is even better vs the run. That $5 mil could pay the bulk of Amos' deal as well, so we don't have to spend limited draft capital or sign 30+ year olds to replace a starter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dll2000 Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 I think while this is a fun exercise, you need to see most of these guys perform in 2018. Your opinions on these guys can swing wildly in a years time. Some guys unexpectedly regress and some guys take giant leaps and you're like whoa where did he come from? Especially with young guys and especially with elite talent around you changing the landscape. Some guys unfortunately get hurt and become too much of a risk. Take a guy like Meredith, everyone you thought was going to be a big future piece simply get hurt at wrong time. Its a butterfly here and a hurricane there, it's all too far out right now. Regardless hard decisions will have to be made in future. No need to worry about all of it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DABEARSLCF04 Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Goldman just got payed on a 4 year extension Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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