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Game of Thrones - Our Watch has Ended


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2 hours ago, texans_uk said:

Tyrion is being seriously out manouvered

That's by design since the show basically had to force Dany to lose and show she wasn't invincible. Now that she's lost most of her ships, two of her biggest allies and her top soldiers are pinned in an unwinnable position she'll start winning again. Probably by stealing the gold Cersei has to pay to the iron bank and forcing them to her side. 

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1 hour ago, Forge said:

(though, I think the Dornish factor here is underplayed - in the books, I Think having the dornish lay seige to KL could be just as detrimental as the dothraki...the dornish are not well loved overall)

The Dornish aren't well-liked, but the Dornish also weren't going to take to work raping every female among the commonfolk like the Dothraki would have.  Now, granted, you don't have to worry about that with the Unsullied, but the Unsullied also made the most sense as a force to send out on their own on a campaign (of any of the others they had - aside from maybe the Tyrells - who as we saw with Randyll Tarly don't have all their bannermen at their disposal - and even then Loras would have been their best commander) because they have a knowledgeable commander and are a highly regimented force.

Ultimately, you have to think the initial plan was to cut off as much resources as Cersei might have/get in King's Landing and then put KL under siege.  For one, Tyrion most of all understands that Cersei is not going to surrender (the only reasons she might have ever had for that - her children - are gone).  The path to unseating Cersei with the least amount of casualties was always going to be the path that led to inspiring/forcing the hands of her allies to turning on her (basically how the Mad King was undone as well).  Keep in mind, no one on Dany's side (except maybe - and that's assuming she was ever afforded the opportunity to view him - Olenna) has any knowledge of FrankenMountain.

What will be interesting to see is where and how the Brotherhood without Banners factor into this.  The easy thought is that they ally themselves to the North and the combating of the Army of the Dead.  However, if they're still in/around The Riverlands (where they had largely been and where, IIRC, the Hound encountered them), they're sitting the path that the Unsullied have back to Dragonstone; however, who exactly is with The Unsullied at Casterly Rock that knows the layout of Westeros?

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4 hours ago, titans0021 said:

A lot of it has to do with the fact that he's not willing to go with the Cersei method of burning everything to the ground. Always tough to try to fight a war with ethics when the other side is led by a lunatic. It really limits his options.

That and realistically he's a guy with very limited military experience facing one of the best military leaders on the ground and one of the best military leaders on the water.

A few military leaders at that - Randyll Tarley has some pelts on the wall in his own right, and he's got to outwit him as well as Jamie.

He doesn't have "death by Wildfire" in his arsenal either, so his options are to slug out a ground war - his strategy was sound for the most part, but he underestimated how little Cersi/Jamie cared of Casterly Rock. For Tywin, Casterly Rock was EVERYTHING, and Tyrion wrongly assumed the other two Lannister kids felt the same.

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Just now, EliteTexan80 said:

A few military leaders at that - Randyll Tarley has some pelts on the wall in his own right, and he's got to outwit him as well as Jamie.

He doesn't have "death by Wildfire" in his arsenal either, so his options are to slug out a ground war - his strategy was sound for the most part, but he underestimated how little Cersi/Jamie cared of Casterly Rock. For Tywin, Casterly Rock was EVERYTHING, and Tyrion wrongly assumed the other two Lannister kids felt the same.

Yup. At this point, all Cersei cares about in the world is the Iron Throne. Maybe Jaime, though I have my doubts.

The gap in military leadership and experience is too great to overcome without using the full arsenal. It's not like Tyrion drew up a terribly flawed plan, with the way things have gone and the current method of attack, I'm not sure there was a winning scenario out there for him that doesn't involve just going headstrong at King's Landing and ignoring the reaction of the people.

It's shaping up to be a great season, though as someone said earlier in the thread, it really seems like they forced it into seven episodes. I have no idea how they can wrap this thing up in 11 more episodes.

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35 minutes ago, DavidatMIZZOU said:

It also bugged me that the Iron Bank of Bravos was in to slavery.  Bravos was a city founded by escaped slaves.  They wouldn't do that.

Just watched that particular scene again. Cersei only says that she's guesses that Iron Bank invested in slavery. He only responds that the slave trade "has entered a downturn". While it's possible for him to have invested in slavery, that's a hell of a non-answer and definitely not a confirmation. Cersei goes on to ask if former slaves always repay their debts. The bankers reaction to that comment isn't the kind of look one makes when they agree with someone. I think the bank will likely betray Cersei this season. Cersei is being played.

Even if I'm wrong on that speculation, the collapse of the slave trade would probably have a rippling effect on the economy of all the free cities of Essos and impact the Iron Bank's profits, regardless of if they actually invested in slavery.

Is the banker Tycho? I'm too lazy to look it up to confirm. 

Edited by skywindO2
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1 hour ago, DavidatMIZZOU said:

I think it is Tycho.  But they could have made a different name like the Archmaester.  Whatever he is called, he is supposed to be Tycho.

Made a different name? Ebrose is the archmaester in charge of the healing arts at the citadel in the books. His name is correct.  

 

I mean was it originally weird they used his character at all? yes. But now seeing sam heal jorah that's why he is in the show. 

Edited by ninjapirate
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3 hours ago, texans_uk said:

Can I also ask why Cersei is so worried about paying back her debts.

Because the Crown in general and the Lannisters specifically are out of money and they need to pay for things.  Armies are expensive to maintain - they need to feed thousands of men, feed horses, pay weaponsmiths/blacksmiths to make and repair weapons and armour etc.  Without paying back at least some of the debts, the Iron Bank won't fund them any further.

Plus image and reputation mean a lot to those claiming to be a nation's ruler - if the common folk believe that the king/queen can't afford to protect them, they'd be a risk of revolting against the Crown  

3 hours ago, texans_uk said:

From what I can tell she rules the 7 kingdoms and isn't fussed about who she destroys.

As Jamie said, Cersei is the ruler of 3 or 4 kingdoms at most and only one of them  the Westerlands,  was guaranteed at that point.  Presumably there isn't really any true hierarchy in the Riverlands (previously the domain of the Freys) or the Stormlands (domain of the Baratheons) and they've only just taken control of The Reach.

The North is in open rebellion, The Vale (under Littlefinger's stewardship) is supporting them, and Dorne was allied with Dany (at least they were until Ellaria was captured)

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9 hours ago, ninjapirate said:

Made a different name? Ebrose is the archmaester in charge of the healing arts at the citadel in the books. His name is correct.  

 

I mean was it originally weird they used his character at all? yes. But now seeing sam heal jorah that's why he is in the show. 

I thought he was supposed to be Marwyn.  Didn't they also use one of the names from World of Ice and Fire? Pylos?

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I just read ALL the spoilers for this season.  Do not read the spoilers for this season.  I will not spoil anything for anyone, and I won't even post them in white. 

To anybody that's curious, yes, there are legitimate spoilers out there.  Yes, they are major.  Don't look for them. 

Edited by HorizontoZenith
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15 hours ago, titans0021 said:

Yup. At this point, all Cersei cares about in the world is the Iron Throne. Maybe Jaime, though I have my doubts.

The gap in military leadership and experience is too great to overcome without using the full arsenal. It's not like Tyrion drew up a terribly flawed plan, with the way things have gone and the current method of attack, I'm not sure there was a winning scenario out there for him that doesn't involve just going headstrong at King's Landing and ignoring the reaction of the people.

It's shaping up to be a great season, though as someone said earlier in the thread, it really seems like they forced it into seven episodes. I have no idea how they can wrap this thing up in 11 more episodes.

Truth is even without that I think Tyrion's military intelligence has been overrated. He has street smarts and even book smarts to generally outwit, but militarilly is a different animal. And that is where Jaime excells not to mentions some of his generals.

Blackwater wasn't a triumph of strategy it was a triumph of wild fire and some impressive motivation skills.

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