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James Conner


dtait93

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With Bell a no show and it being a mystery as to when he will finally sign his franchise tag and hit the field, James Conner is left with Pittsburgh’s backfield duties. What do you expect out of him? Where do you rank him? Do you see him as an RB1? RB2? A flex play? Would love to hear everyone’s thoughts on his fantasy value.

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I think he is a solid Rb2 in week one. I hesitate to give him rb1 status, just because he hasn't had a lot of playing time and experience, but I think he'll get the volume and nice opportunities to score. Very solidly within my rb2 range. 

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I'm in the RB2 camp on him - I don't think he's going to see the level of touches in the passing game that Bell was getting (because Bell is really freakin' good in that department!) unless Jaylen Samuels has some early turnover issues (I don't view Ridley as a threat there).  I have him in both my money leagues right now (off waivers) and after this weekend, assuming he even puts up RB3 numbers, I'm going to be actively shopping him to see if I can fetch a tidy return from someone who may have recently lost McKinnon or the Bell owner in the league.

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1 hour ago, The LBC said:

I'm in the RB2 camp on him - I don't think he's going to see the level of touches in the passing game that Bell was getting (because Bell is really freakin' good in that department!) unless Jaylen Samuels has some early turnover issues (I don't view Ridley as a threat there).  I have him in both my money leagues right now (off waivers) and after this weekend, assuming he even puts up RB3 numbers, I'm going to be actively shopping him to see if I can fetch a tidy return from someone who may have recently lost McKinnon or the Bell owner in the league.

Curious what you will be asking in return. I think that Conner could be this year’s out of nowhere RB1. I’d be careful ditching him at too cheap a price. 

Going on two decades ago (damn I’m getting old), Ricky Watters got hurt and Shaun Alexander looked great. Ricky Watters got healthy, and many Alexander owners sold. Alexander kept the job and was a fantasy superstar. Right now, Conner is still being drafted in the mid-to-late rounds. I’m sorry...I’d rather keep him for that insane upside even if and when Bell returns. Conner could very well be this year’s fantasy MVP. BE CAREFUL. 

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I always start high and hope that they counter, but a lot of it (because he's not a massive need unless he becomes a weekly Top 12 RB - which I'm not quite as confident in) more revolves around making the weak points of my own roster more secure.  So, for example, in one league I punted TE and figured to stream until someone came along that made a case for keeping on a week-to-week basis.  However, the Bell owner in this league also owned Trey Burton who I'm high on (granted I also own Allen Robinson in that league, but - Trubisky being the concern obviously - history has shown that both the WR1 and the TE1 in an Andy Reid brand of WCO can be very productive simultaneously from a fantasy standpoint.

In the other, which is a keeper league (and in which I got Conner cheaply as far as FAAB/Keeper price goes), I'll play a bit more of a wait and see approach, largely because I also have Ingram on my bench riding out that suspension.  After that, if Conner is still the presumptive starter and productive, I'll likely start dangling in front of owners of underachieving RB1's to see if they bite, and if they counter with a lesser asset, I'll counter by swapping out Conner for someone like Marshawn Lynch (who would be a tad more expendable in a 1/2-pt PPR league once Ingram is off his suspension).

 

Edit: Updating on the first league mentioned, same guy that owns Bell also just watched Freeman get nicked up tonight.  I should be able to get Burton out of him easily, the question is whether to dangle Conner or hold onto him and dangle one of Burkhead or Michel (I'm leaning more towards the later because this guy historically overvalues rookies).

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He's going to disappoint so many people this week imo. He's not leveon and the browns rush defense is pretty stout. He looked great this preseason and should have a nice year overall but I don't think this is his week just because it's an iffy matchup 

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On 9/8/2018 at 11:58 PM, N4L said:

He's going to disappoint so many people this week imo. He's not leveon and the browns rush defense is pretty stout. He looked great this preseason and should have a nice year overall but I don't think this is his week just because it's an iffy matchup 

DID. NOT. AGE. WELL.

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15 minutes ago, N4L said:

The only person he disappointed was me, who left him on the bench in favor of Royce Freeman. YUCK

Weather report cemented it for me.  I knew that Road Ben plus heavy rain and wind was going to translate into a game script that means leaning on the run game.

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So after conferring with one of my friends who actually makes money (like this is his job) off of a fantasy football podcast (they legitimately went on a limited national tour this summer and were selling out theaters in major cities for live shows), I've altered my strategy on Conner.

In redraft, I'm shopping him for more than most people are thinking he's worth (basically for anyone that was in my Top 2 tiers of RB's (and isn't now injured; I already had an offer I made of Conner straight up for Jordan Howard rejected, but that gives you a feel of where I'm trying to get him valued) pre-draft, and expecting to get shot down, but I want people to know I'm willing to move him for the right price so that I might see offers for him after another 1 or 2 big weeks.  Often times this also works to get people thinking that I'll  value my other running backs less and the tertiary/bench guys that I am looking to move, they come to me with offers for.

I'm also genuinely considering in one league, once we get past Week 4 and (in my case) McCaffrey's bye week, offering one of my tertiary guys (at this point that's Burkhead and Michel) to the Bell owner for him.

Conner's performance + David Johnson's recent extension being so far below what Gurley got (and Johnson being closer to Bell's age), I look at this situation and don't see any reason why Bell should feel the need to come back before the Week 11 deadline he needs to meet in order to accrue a season of service.  His floor in contract value has been set by DJ (and it's lower than he thought he would get initially), his ceiling is (possibly) somewhere around Gurley's if a team goes hog wild (stranger things have happened; just random thought, Melvin Gordon's never been a great RB, more the beneficiary of a good situation and a 70% share of the reps, you don't think rather than pay him remotely close to market rate the Chargers wouldn't prefer guaranteeing that money on a, probably, shorter contract to a clearly superior back in Bell - not saying that's likely, Telesco isn't that smart, but it's a feasible scenario).  But that ceiling gets lower and lower with every hit he takes and additional bit of tread he puts on the tires, chips away at his value.

Now consider that Bell is holding out, which means he's not IR eligible.  That owner is going to have to roster him with no return on the season until the home stretch for the playoffs and the playoffs themselves.  He hits bye weeks and he's trying to fill holes, there's a chance he gets desperate.  I wouldn't be shocked if in, non-keeper, leagues we see Bell dropped by some owners around Week 6-8.  Now to me, already having Conner and (as long as I have the roster depth/spot to accommodate this), it's worth the risk of my RB4 or RB5 to have the potential of a fresh Le'Veon Bell in the playoffs (and if he doesn't play, I've still got Conner, but he basically becomes Conner insurance - and if he comes up with a phantom "hamstring injury" it'll be pretty apparent early on and you can cut losses).  Rather than hope he hits waivers and THEN try to be the one who wins him on waivers, I'm willing to dangle that RB4 in front of his owner once he gets in the thick of things.

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5 minutes ago, dtait93 said:

So does Bell being taken completely off the depth chart change anything for you guys? Maybe they’re sending him a subtle message. Perhaps Conner is the bellcow for the remainder of the season even if Bell does return?

Nope. Same as it always was. When Bell decides to sign and come back, he'll be at the top. I think it was just their way of saying that they knew he wasn't going to be back this week or maybe not in the next couple of weeks. 

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