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James Conner


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On 9/12/2018 at 2:33 PM, The LBC said:

So after conferring with one of my friends who actually makes money (like this is his job) off of a fantasy football podcast (they legitimately went on a limited national tour this summer and were selling out theaters in major cities for live shows), I've altered my strategy on Conner.

In redraft, I'm shopping him for more than most people are thinking he's worth (basically for anyone that was in my Top 2 tiers of RB's (and isn't now injured; I already had an offer I made of Conner straight up for Jordan Howard rejected, but that gives you a feel of where I'm trying to get him valued) pre-draft, and expecting to get shot down, but I want people to know I'm willing to move him for the right price so that I might see offers for him after another 1 or 2 big weeks.  Often times this also works to get people thinking that I'll  value my other running backs less and the tertiary/bench guys that I am looking to move, they come to me with offers for.

I'm also genuinely considering in one league, once we get past Week 4 and (in my case) McCaffrey's bye week, offering one of my tertiary guys (at this point that's Burkhead and Michel) to the Bell owner for him.

Conner's performance + David Johnson's recent extension being so far below what Gurley got (and Johnson being closer to Bell's age), I look at this situation and don't see any reason why Bell should feel the need to come back before the Week 11 deadline he needs to meet in order to accrue a season of service.  His floor in contract value has been set by DJ (and it's lower than he thought he would get initially), his ceiling is (possibly) somewhere around Gurley's if a team goes hog wild (stranger things have happened; just random thought, Melvin Gordon's never been a great RB, more the beneficiary of a good situation and a 70% share of the reps, you don't think rather than pay him remotely close to market rate the Chargers wouldn't prefer guaranteeing that money on a, probably, shorter contract to a clearly superior back in Bell - not saying that's likely, Telesco isn't that smart, but it's a feasible scenario).  But that ceiling gets lower and lower with every hit he takes and additional bit of tread he puts on the tires, chips away at his value.

Now consider that Bell is holding out, which means he's not IR eligible.  That owner is going to have to roster him with no return on the season until the home stretch for the playoffs and the playoffs themselves.  He hits bye weeks and he's trying to fill holes, there's a chance he gets desperate.  I wouldn't be shocked if in, non-keeper, leagues we see Bell dropped by some owners around Week 6-8.  Now to me, already having Conner and (as long as I have the roster depth/spot to accommodate this), it's worth the risk of my RB4 or RB5 to have the potential of a fresh Le'Veon Bell in the playoffs (and if he doesn't play, I've still got Conner, but he basically becomes Conner insurance - and if he comes up with a phantom "hamstring injury" it'll be pretty apparent early on and you can cut losses).  Rather than hope he hits waivers and THEN try to be the one who wins him on waivers, I'm willing to dangle that RB4 in front of his owner once he gets in the thick of things.

Thanks LBC.  I think this is the rout that I'm going to take with him.  Especially in a league where my 4th and 5th backs are Shady and Deion Lewis and my top 2 are cook and DJ.

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On 9/12/2018 at 11:33 AM, The LBC said:

So after conferring with one of my friends who actually makes money (like this is his job) off of a fantasy football podcast (they legitimately went on a limited national tour this summer and were selling out theaters in major cities for live shows), I've altered my strategy on Conner.

 

You friends with one of the FantasyFootballers?

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10 hours ago, Duffman57 said:

Thanks LBC.  I think this is the rout that I'm going to take with him.  Especially in a league where my 4th and 5th backs are Shady and Deion Lewis and my top 2 are cook and DJ.

So @The LBC, I just did this and the player with Jordan Howard in my league (PPR), accepted.  How should I feel?  I pretty much got what I wanted, but it feels like a weird deal to me.

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Just now, Duffman57 said:

So @The LBC, I just did this and the player with Jordan Howard in my league (PPR), accepted.  How should I feel?  I pretty much got what I wanted, but it feels like a weird deal to me.

Honestly, it's a gamble either way. If Bell comes back in week 10 or 11, then you may lose some regular season value. If he comes back in week 4, you're gaining a ton of value. I actually made a somewhat similar move to this last year when I traded Zeke (when the suspension was still up in the air) at a slightly discounted rate for Michael Thomas. Zeke ended up suspended, Michael Thomas obviously was very good for me, so it worked out. You're basically just trading for security. 

I also think that Howard is going to be a slightly better ppr play than most people project - I think Trubisky likes to checkdown, so even when Howard isn't the primary target, I think he's going to get some small receptions. I wouldn't be surprised if he manages 35 catches this year to be honest. 

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4 minutes ago, Forge said:

Honestly, it's a gamble either way. If Bell comes back in week 10 or 11, then you may lose some regular season value. If he comes back in week 4, you're gaining a ton of value. I actually made a somewhat similar move to this last year when I traded Zeke (when the suspension was still up in the air) at a slightly discounted rate for Michael Thomas. Zeke ended up suspended, Michael Thomas obviously was very good for me, so it worked out. You're basically just trading for security. 

I also think that Howard is going to be a slightly better ppr play than most people project - I think Trubisky likes to checkdown, so even when Howard isn't the primary target, I think he's going to get some small receptions. I wouldn't be surprised if he manages 35 catches this year to be honest. 

Yeah, I'm honestly not too worried  about that league, and I have enough Boom/Bust players (Gordon and Hill are my WR's, but this league also counts return YARDS, so Hill is MONEY).  I have Bell, so come playoff time, Connor loses his value anyway, but Howard/Dalvin Cook as my RB's, with Bell returning for playoffs is something that I'm happy with.  I think Howard and Connor will end up roughly equal anyway.

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16 hours ago, Duffman57 said:

So @The LBC, I just did this and the player with Jordan Howard in my league (PPR), accepted.  How should I feel?  I pretty much got what I wanted, but it feels like a weird deal to me.

I offered that same  trade to the Howard owner and got rejected.  So that should tell you how I feel about it.

Conner is probably a RB1 most weeks he's the lead horse in PIttsburgh, but Howard is going to be a high-end RB2 floor with RB1 weeks and a much more predictable situation all season long.

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  • 2 weeks later...
2 hours ago, Chwf3rd25 said:

Any movement on Conner’s value?  Just traded TY Hilton for him and don’t know what to think.

I think that is quite easily a steal. With Bell's time in Pittsburgh all but gone (I'd say about 1% chance he comes back?) the one danger of Conner, his unstable job security, has vanished. What you're with is a clear RB1, and in my eyes a top 6 fantasy back going forward. On the other side you give up who is a fringe WR2 at this point given how shaky Luck and that offense look at the moment. Even if T.Y. was playing lights out so far, this would still be a good trade off value alone. Bell was a consensus top 3 player in all of fantasy, and Conner has taken over his role. Now I won't pretend Conner is just as good a back as Bell, or that the Steelers will necessarily have as much trust in him and be willing to ride him as hard as they did Bell, but a ton of Bell's allure was his situation, a situation which Conner has now inherited. So far, so good: #4 ranked RB in half-PPR, #5 in full PP.

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On 9/14/2018 at 9:01 PM, Forge said:

Honestly, it's a gamble either way. If Bell comes back in week 10 or 11, then you may lose some regular season value. If he comes back in week 4, you're gaining a ton of value. I actually made a somewhat similar move to this last year when I traded Zeke (when the suspension was still up in the air) at a slightly discounted rate for Michael Thomas. Zeke ended up suspended, Michael Thomas obviously was very good for me, so it worked out. You're basically just trading for security. 

I also think that Howard is going to be a slightly better ppr play than most people project - I think Trubisky likes to checkdown, so even when Howard isn't the primary target, I think he's going to get some small receptions. I wouldn't be surprised if he manages 35 catches this year to be honest. 

I think Howard already has 11 receptions on 12 targets. I think he could get 50+ receptions. He's going to be much better in ppr than in years past.

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Really want to move Connor in my league. I hate his usage and his efficiency has been pretty garbage since week 1. Problem is, I'm finding a really hard match with regards to comparable trade value. I want a solid rb2 back, and I just don't know that there are many of those. Like, I'd rather roll with Connor's upside over Jordan Howard. I don't really want any shares of DJ, but I'd consider that deal, but I don't think there's any way that DJ's owner takes that deal. I may be able to get Hunt for him in some sort of deal, but I'm sort of lukewarm on Hunt as well, especially in a PPR league. The problem is, I'm already 4 deep at wide receiver, so getting anything other than a running back for him is a non starter.

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11 hours ago, Forge said:

Really want to move Connor in my league. I hate his usage and his efficiency has been pretty garbage since week 1. Problem is, I'm finding a really hard match with regards to comparable trade value. I want a solid rb2 back, and I just don't know that there are many of those. Like, I'd rather roll with Connor's upside over Jordan Howard. I don't really want any shares of DJ, but I'd consider that deal, but I don't think there's any way that DJ's owner takes that deal. I may be able to get Hunt for him in some sort of deal, but I'm sort of lukewarm on Hunt as well, especially in a PPR league. The problem is, I'm already 4 deep at wide receiver, so getting anything other than a running back for him is a non starter.

yeah I am on the same boat but I am tied to Bell/Conner and honestly idk what to do. 

one hand, Bell could get traded and I have two solid Rbs or nothing happens and he shows up week 10 and my team is all but finished.....

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Report just hit the Sleeper app that Bell plans to report to the Steelers during their Week 7 bye and that he plans to play for them this season.  Not sure how this meshes with the tweet he had following Earl Thomas breaking his leg.  I wouldn't say panic, but if he manages to put up a good game against Atlanta (he should - their safeties and LB's are banged up as hell), it probably wouldn't hurt to monitor the situation of the Bell owner (particularly if they're in a low win-total hole right now) and at least take a swing at getting a mutually-beneficial trade out of him (and then to let him worry about the headache of which one to start).

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