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Keyser's TE Tiers


keysersoze3421

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Designed with PPR in mind, but standard rankings are basically the same since most TEs are not high-volume pass catchers.

Tier 1  
1 Rob Gronkowski
2 Travis Kelce
3 Greg Olsen
Tier 2  
4 Jimmy Graham
5 Jordan Reed
6 Kyle Rudolph
7 Tyler Eifert
   
Tier 3  
8 Delanie Walker
9 Zach Ertz
10
Martellus Bennett
11 Eric Ebron
   
Tier 4  
12 Hunter Henry
13 Jack Doyle
14 Cameron Brate
15 Austin Hooper
16 Jason Witten
17 C.J. Fiedorowicz
18 Coby Fleener
   
Tier 5  
19 Antonio Gates
20 Julius Thomas
21 Zach Miller
22 Jesse James
23 Evan Engram
24 Dwayne Allen

Notes:

* Kyle Rudolph led all TEs last season in weekly top 12 finishes with 11.  He was second in the NFL (no, not just among TEs) in red zone targets behind Jordy Nelson.

* Jordan Reed is the league leader at TE the past two seasons in points per game.  However, Reed has also missed 6 games over that period and played hampered in a number of games where he was active.

* Tyler Eifert has 18 TDs in his last 21 games, but like Reed, he has missed a lot of games -- 11 to be exact -- over the last two seasons.

* Maybe we should just wait to start acquiring Zach Ertz at midseason.  He never shows up the first half of the season.  If you take the last 8 games of his 2016 season and add them to the last 8 games of his 2015 season, he would have 16-game production of 106 catches, 1152 yards, and 6 TDs.  

* Most slept-on TE this year?  How about Zach Miller?  Miller was 10th in PPG last season in PPR formats, and despite an injury that ended his season early, he returns with very few options in the Chicago passing game and a QB that likes to throw short.  Miller isn't even being drafted right now, so if you're streaming, keep an eye on him.

 

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I know Rookie TEs historically don't produce big numbers but i'm shocked you don't have guys like OJ Howard and Evan Engram even listed.

 

EDIT: Just saw Engram at 24. Either way it seems low compared to those in tier 4 (That said I can't really differentiate tier 4 from 5 all that well.)

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Yeah, other than Hunter Henry and Gronk, rookie TEs don't do anything.  And to be clear, those guys derived all their value from TDs.  Engram may get some work out of the slot, which changes his value a little bit.  Guys like Njoku, Howard, etc., aren't worthy of attention right now.

Look back at drafted TEs in the first three rounds since 2010.  Lot of current big names that did absolutely nothing in their first seasons - Tyler Eifert, Zach Ertz, Jordan Reed, Travis Kelce, Kyle Rudolph.  Don't count on rookie TEs.

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Zach Ertz stats over the second half of last season...

6.9 catches/game

71 yards/game

0.5 TD/game

 

I'm targeting him in the third tier...but I can see him being the best TE in the league this year. Consistent upward trend each year, reaching physical prime, improvement in QB play, very little competition, and now the lose of Matthews as the other possession receiving threat. Arrows pointing up.

 

 

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On 8/15/2017 at 8:59 PM, steadypimpin said:

What are your thoughts on Delanie Walker?

I'll address this and JagsCrazy's question together.  While Eifert poses a bigger injury risk than Walker, I am a bit concerned with the additions of Decker and Davis taking away a large chunk of Walker's passing game workload.  I don't think he'll hit 100 targets again.  I'd look for more like 85.

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On 8/17/2017 at 7:45 AM, sammymvpknight said:

Zach Ertz stats over the second half of last season...

6.9 catches/game

71 yards/game

0.5 TD/game

 

I'm targeting him in the third tier...but I can see him being the best TE in the league this year. Consistent upward trend each year, reaching physical prime, improvement in QB play, very little competition, and now the lose of Matthews as the other possession receiving threat. Arrows pointing up.

I like it, but he does this every second half.  I don't automatically assume its a trajectory for production in this first half.  However, with Matthews' departure, Jeffrey's injury propensity, and Agholor's inability to catch, I could see him taking off a lot earlier this season, especially with Wentz in his second year.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 8/26/2017 at 10:14 AM, Nozizaki said:

Why is Delanie Walker so low, out of curiosity?

 

On 8/17/2017 at 10:53 AM, keysersoze3421 said:

I'll address this and JagsCrazy's question together.  While Eifert poses a bigger injury risk than Walker, I am a bit concerned with the additions of Decker and Davis taking away a large chunk of Walker's passing game workload.  I don't think he'll hit 100 targets again.  I'd look for more like 85.

key is right. There are simply too many targets in Tennessee now to hope for a great season from any of them, especially since Mariota typically spreads the ball around. Even just the emergence of Rishard Matthews led to a dip in Delanie's targets last year. Add in two more legitimate receiving options and you're going to end up with four guys that can realistically be targeted whenever they are on the field. Combine that with Davis being a bigger receiver and Decker traditionally being a strong red zone receiver and it's tough to see him getting into the end zone seven times again either.

As a Titans fan, I love Delanie. As a fantasy football player, I'm staying away at his current ADP. I think he'll have a couple real big games. But there are going to be games where he probably only sees four or five targets if everyone else is healthy.

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Zach Miller is a great sleeper, especially after the Cameron Meredith injury. Like you said, not a whole lot else to throw to in Chicago these days and both Glennon or Trubisky should lean on their seam stretching TE. 

Ertz is a guy I love this year, for all the reasons that have been mentioned by other posters. 

Hockey calls you out for not having more rookie TEs on your list. I'm gonna call you out for having any rookie TEs at all. I'll take Charles Clay all day over Evan Engram. Clay plays nearly 90% of the Bills offensive snaps when healthy and got peppered with targets late last season when he was feeling right. I guess it depends on what you need. I'm personally not saving a roster spot for a rookie TE knowing how volatile they are. 

How much of Luck's injury concerns factor into your ranking of Jack Doyle? If Luck is healthy, I think I'd rather have him than Ebron. 

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