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Pastor Dillon

2018 Stat Watch

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I always like to keep up to date with guys and their numbers. 

A few things to watch for this season:

Deandre Hopkins. He is building a very good resume, dare I say towards a HOF ending. He is 26 this season, but if he repeats last years performance, he will have over 7,000 yards 500 catches and close to 50 TDs. Injury will be the only thing to keep him under 1,000 catches 13,000 yards and 100 TDs. Its possible that he can even reach the 15,000 yard mark in his career. Bottom line is this: The guy is a beast. He is undervalued because the Texans QB situation has been a mess his entire career. I think he could post some insane numbers over the next few years if Watson can hold on. He is also a 2x Pro Bowler, 1x 1st team all Pro, 1x 2nd Team All Pro and 1x Receiving TD leader. 

I would like to see 100 catches, 1,500 yards and 15 TDs out of him in a monster season this year. my prediction though is 89 catches 1,239 yards and 9 TDs

 

JJ Watt. How many sacks can he get this year? He has 1.5 in his last 2 seasons. He sits at just 76 for his career. I think he is already a HOFer with 3 DPOY awards, but i would like for him to get to 100 sacks on his career. I think hes never going to be the guy he once was, but he can still have a solid career. I am going to prediction 55 tackles, 6 Sacks, 2 FFs

 

Lamar Miller is 109 yards away from crossing 5,000 for his career. Its possible he passes 6,000 by the end of the season, but that would require a new career high in rushing yards. 

 

I dont think anyone else is close to any milestone to keep up with. Watson could cross 50 TD passes if he gets 31 on the season. his numbers will be interesting. With the injury and with people game planning better against him, I dont expect him to come out firing like he was last year. 

 

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49 minutes ago, Texansfan713 said:
 
 
 
 
 

this stat is more important

Our owners have tried 3 times to copy another franchise. We started off trying to capture the Jacksonville early success by following the same pattern they did as an expansion team. Failed epicly

Then we moved on to trying to be the Denver Broncos. It was marred with disaster, but actually started to work until the wheels just fell off. 

Then we decided we should be the Patriots. As every team that has tried that has figured out, you can't be the patriots

 

Hopefully when we move on from BOB, our ownership will decide to blaze a new path. Go after a college coach or go after a young coordinator who isn't going to try and replicate what some other team does.  

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Interestingly we have the 11th ranked defense and the #1 rushing offense in the NFL. 

Hopkins went over 6,000 career yards receiving, becoming the 3rd youngest to reach 6,000

Lamar Miller crossed 5,000 career yards, and despite just having 166 on the season, hes actually 4th in the league in rushing

Ejiofor got his first career sack

we hit 16 straight games with a turnover

 

 

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2 hours ago, Pastor Dillon said:

Interestingly we have the 11th ranked defense and the #1 rushing offense in the NFL. 

If you told me that we'd be here after two weeks, I'd tell you we're 2-0. 

Frustrating that we can fill stat sheets, but can't finish the game.

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2 hours ago, ET80 said:

If you told me that we'd be here after two weeks, I'd tell you we're 2-0. 

Frustrating that we can fill stat sheets, but can't finish the game.

Yeah, I am convinced that Clowney cost us the game. That penalty totally swung all the momentum. 

We have always been a team that either gets a 3 and out or gives up points. I dont have any numbers to back that up, but that seems to be the case. We either get off the field in 3-5 plays or we give up points. We rarely give up 2 or 3 first downs and then force a punt. 

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Some interesting things to look at after 4 weeks. It gives us a basis to project the pace that some of our guys are on. 

Watson is currently ranked top 10 in the league in yards, and QBR. He is struggling in passing TDs. He is actually well ahead of his yardage pace from last season. If he continues his pace, he would end the season with something like this: 4,984 yards, 28 TDs 16 Ints with another 644 yards rushing and 4 TDs. Those are insane numbers. 

We now have 3 WRs who pose a threat to go for 100 yards a game. 

Hopkins is up in the top 5 and is on pace for 120 catches 1,772 yards and 8 TDs. Not out of the question at all

Fuller is averaging 88 yards per game, which over 16 games would net him 1,408 yards, but considering he probably plays 8-10, I am going to project him around 800 yards

Coutee is an interesting guy to look at. His 1st game was a monster, but its hard to know if he has that many catches and yards if we dont lose Fuller. I think 500 yards is a probable projection for him. 

Miller is on pace for 900 rushing yards, which is right in line with his career average per season. 

 

Mckinney has been a disappointment, and Cunningham has been burned in the pass game, but has been our best line backer. 

Watt is on pace for 20 sacks, and I would say "no way" but the guy has done it twice before. Still, he would need to average 1.25 sacks per game from here on out, thats a big ask. He would really need a monster 3 or 4 sack game to get there. 

Clowney is on pace for his usual 6-10 sack season. 

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This was posted in NFL Gen, I found some things very interesting...

3 hours ago, TheKillerNacho said:

Friend with the subscription sent me the updated numbers so I'm sending them to you. A disclaimer: I do not own a PFF subscription but my friend does and sent me this list to post it. 

WIDE RECEIVER

Top 7:
1. DeSean Jackson 91.1
2. Julio Jones 88.9
3. DeAndre Hopkins 88.8
4. Will Fuller 86.4

5. Michael Thomas 86.3
6. Mike Evans 86.1
7. Chris Godwin 84.0

OFFENSIVE TACKLE

Top 6:
1. Andrew Whitworth 87.9
2. David Bakhtiari 84.6
3. Taylor Moton 81.1
4. Terron Armstead 80.8
5. Charles Leno 80.6
6. Rob Havenstein 79.1

Bottom 6:
1. Donald Penn 47.0
2. Chad Wheeler 47.2
3. Germain Ifedi 47.6
4. LaAdrian Waddle 47.8
5. Martinas Rankin 48.8
6. Denzelle Good 49.8

CORNERBACK

Top 7:
1. Byron Jones 90.6
2. Patrick Peterson 82.1
3. Prince Amukamara 82.0
4. Bryce Callahan 80.1
5. Eli Apple 78.6
6. Jason McCourty 78.5
7a. Quinton Dunbar 78.4
7b. Richard Sherman 78.4

Bottom 7:
1. P.J. Williams 29.9
2. Jamar Yalor 39.5
3. Aaron Colvin 41.5
4. Ahkello Witherspoon 42.3
5. Brent Grimes 42.8
6. Briean Boddy-Calhoun 45.6
7. Ken Crawley 45.9

SAFETY

Top 5:
1. Earl Thomas 91.3
2. Clayton Fejedelem 90.5
3. HaHa Clinton-Dix 90.4
4. Eddie Jackson 90.1
5. D.J. Swearinger 89.9

LINEBACKER

Top 7:
1. Bobby Wagner 91.1
2. Josey Jewell 89.6
3. Blake Martinez 84.9
4. Zach Brown 83.9
5. Leighton Vander Esch 83.6
6. Josh Bynes 82.4
7. Ja'Whaun Bentley 81.7

Bottom 7:
1. Deone Bucannon 28.3
2. Terrance Smith 29.4
3. Austin Calitro 29.7
4. Zach Cunningham 33.6
5. Christian Kirksey 33.7
6. Rashaan Evans 37.2
7. Adarius Taylor 38.0

"EDGE DEFENDER"

Top 7:
1. Khalil Mack 92.1
2. J.J. Watt 90.9
3. Trey Flowers 90.0
4. Lorenzo Alexander 89.8
5. Brandon Graham 88.7
6. Myles Garrett 87.9
7. Cameron Jordan 83.8

In relation to the Texans, nothing too shocking here - you don't need analytics to tell you the WRs are good, Watt is good the LT, CBs and ILBs are bad. 

I'll admit, I am STUNNED that Fuller is rated as a top 5 guy, ahead of 2016 WR alumni Michael Thomas. We have a mighty fine group of guys, just need to keep em healthy.

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I'm stunned is rated as a bottom 7 CB.  I thought he played pretty good for us prior to injury.

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1 hour ago, Texansfan713 said:

I'm stunned is rated as a bottom 7 CB.  I thought he played pretty good for us prior to injury.

Bottom 3 if you really look at it - only PJ Williams and Jamar Yalor have lower grades.

I think he really looked bad in the Indy game, could not cover to save his life. He may have been playing through the ankle injury, but it was a mess out there.

Makes you wonder why Trumaine Johnson wasn't a higher priority in FA.

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I honestly think Wright and Webster will be our two best CBs the rest of the season. I think they are both better than anyone we started the season with. Webster could be a steal if he regains his pre injury form. 

on another note regarding our secondary, we can do a complete make over in the off season

Kevin Johnson can be cut saving us 9 million
JJoe can be cut saving us 4.5 million
Bademosi can be cut saving us 2.75 million
Mathieu comes off the books at 7 million
Kareem Jackson comes off the books at 9 million

 

Thats 32.25 million we have to spend in the secondary. We will also have Reid, Hal and Colvin coming back for sure next year. Thats enough money to sign 2-3 starters on top of drafting 1 or 2 guys. 

I am inclined to bring back Jackson on a much cheaper deal, he has been decent for us at safety. 

I have not been impressed with mathieu at all. Hes made some big hits, but has constantly been beaten. 

I think we need a complete overhaul of our D. Switch to a 4-3. 

Clowney/Reader/Covington/Watt
Cunningham/McKinney/Cole
 

we can trade or release Mercilus and save 6 million. Ejifor can play either OLB or DE to back guys up. Watt can move to DT if we need him to. 

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I'd keep Bademosi - he's been as advertised on ST, downed the ball at the 1 which led to the Clowney TD. If simply for some level of competency on ST, he's worth the $2.75mm. We've never had a gunner worth anything, no need to cut the one who is, IMO.

20 minutes ago, Pastor Dillon said:

I think we need a complete overhaul of our D. Switch to a 4-3. 

Clowney/Reader/Covington/Watt
Cunningham/McKinney/Cole

I'm not totally against going with a 4-3, but I don't want Clowney at the price tag he's going to command. Let someone else make that mistake, see if Carlos Watkins can play some UT and let Covington play end opposite of Watt. 

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Watt is leading the league in Sacks and Forced Fumbles. Our D ranks 9th in yards allowed and 10th in points allowed. 

If those numbers were to hold and Watt lead the league in sacks and forced fumbles and we have a top 10 D, is there any chance he could be given a 4th DPOY award???? I think its a forgone conclusion he gets any comeback player of the year award they might give out. 

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41 minutes ago, Pastor Dillon said:

Watt is leading the league in Sacks and Forced Fumbles. Our D ranks 9th in yards allowed and 10th in points allowed. 

If those numbers were to hold and Watt lead the league in sacks and forced fumbles and we have a top 10 D, is there any chance he could be given a 4th DPOY award???? I think its a forgone conclusion he gets any comeback player of the year award they might give out. 

If it holds, he wins. Media has been dying for Watt to come back, and this would be a resounding DPOY win for him. 

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Hopkins is just 20 yards away from topping 7,000 for his career. We have 4 games left, and if he were to catch 100 yards per game, doubtful because we probably rest him week 17, but if he were then he would put himself at having an outside shot at 9,000 by the end of next year. He also would have a shot at a new carrer high, which he is 406 yards short on right now. more than likely he crosses 10,000 at age 28, giving him a real shot at that 15,000 yard club before he hangs it up. 

Our strong running game, and weak pass protection plus WR injuries have held Hopkins numbers back a little. Teams are doubling him and he doesnt have a chance to get open deep because of the line. Hes got a decent shot at being a 1st team all NFL, but its starting to look like a long shot with so many WRs playing big. 

 

Watson passed 3,000 yards and has a 21/9 TD to INT ratio which is great. Hes a year out from surgery now and he moves great and seems to be getting back to the watson we drafted. He has an outside shot at the pro bowl. Currently i think Brady, Mahomes, Rivers and Big Ben would all be ahead of him but odds are 1 of them is in the super bowl, and one of them will drop out. I think Watson would clearly be the 4th or 5th option right there with Rivers and maybe luck. 

 

its also conceivable that We finish the #1 seed in the AFC, and possibly with the 2nd best record in the league, and we dont have an MVP candidate. 

 

PFF really likes some of our players

Kareem has dropped to the 6th ranked CB

Reid is up to the 10th ranked saftey

JJoe is the 12th ranked CB

Honey Badger comes in the 26th ranked safety

still thats an impressive starting secondary considering we are powerless to stop the passing game and guys like Mariota and Mayfield have put up big numbers against us. It scares me to play Andrew Luck this week. 

 

Hopkins grades out as the #1 WR in PFF

Then things get bad on the offensive line

Nick Martin 59.2
Kelemete 57.6 
Fulton 55.1 
Mancz 64.3
Davenport 51.1
Lamm 63.0
Rankin 45.3

Its insane that our best rated linemen is a back up, who plays a lot but still isnt a starter. 

JJ Watt is the #1 edge defender
 

Clowney, as no surprise to anyone who watches him, is extremely over hyped and ranks at the 26th best Edge Defender in the league. 

 

basically according to PFF, we should be a super bowl contender but our line sucks really bad. This is one coaching change that has to be made. You cant have the worst line in football, get 4 new starters and have the worst line in football. Someone has to take the fall for this. 

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