PACKRULE Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, Packerraymond said: That's a great take, although my stance on that would still be that he needs more opportunities, isolated, just him and a DB with Ryan delivering a good throw and the formation placing him far enough from the sideline where the boundary isn't as big of an issue. If spatial awareness is truly his weakness, I don't accept that as an excuse from a coaching staff stand point as to not make him more successful and give him more opportunities. I feel like a lot a much less talented receivers are put in much better situations. Long story short, Julio is a grown *** man and I'm throwing him at least on 50/50 ball any time I'm 1st and goal. Bolded! The way he makes contested / non contested catches between the 20's you give him a shot anywhere. I would give him at least one target every trip to the RZ. Some teams are odd though if Julio played for MM he'd have 20 TD's a year we pass in the RZ all day long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Go with many more opportunities do you need? Julio had 19 last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 *how Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrBobGray Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 In terms of his opportunities, Julio was the most targeted Falcon in the redzone in 2017, 2015, 2012, and 2011. He was 2nd in targets in 2014 (2 behind Roddy White). 2013 was a wash because he missed almost the whole year. That leaves one clear outlier: 2016, when he was 5th on the team in red zone targets. This should be telling. The Falcons best offense year ever, and Matt Ryan's best year throwing in the redzone, came when they threw the ball to Julio the least in the redzone of his career. And correspondingly, the more he targets Julio, the worse he does in the redzone: Matt Ryan: Inside 20 Inside 10 Snap Counts Passing Rushing Passing Rushing Off. Def. ST Fantasy Tm G Cmp Att Yds TD Att Yds TD Cmp Att Yds TD Att Yds TD Num Pct Num Pct Num Pct FantPt DKPt FDPt 159 431 805 2852 185 51 101 6 182 349 32 132 21 5 5 6409 0 0 2564.98 2855 2692 2008 ATL 16 30 64 226 9 12 17 2 9 21 1 6 5 5 1 194.00 214.0 205.0 All 2008 Games 2009 ATL 14 27 56 182 15 7 1 1 10 22 1 10 4 -3 1 182.54 202.0 196.5 All 2009 Games 2010 ATL 16 50 87 332 22 10 8 0 16 30 2 14 3 -5 0 258.40 272.4 267.4 All 2010 Games 2011 ATL 16 38 81 281 18 2 2 2 16 35 6 12 2 2 2 274.48 307.0 286.5 All 2011 Games 2012 ATL 16 55 92 360 25 4 28 1 19 39 4 17 1 5 1 1050 99.1% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 304.86 341.9 318.9 All 2012 Games 2013 ATL 16 54 101 353 21 1 4 0 25 50 1 14 0 0 0 1065 98.9% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 248.10 290.1 265.1 All 2013 Games 2014 ATL 16 38 64 216 19 0 0 0 21 36 7 17 0 0 0 1064 98.4% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 284.26 318.3 298.3 All 2014 Games 2015 ATL 16 42 75 295 17 4 9 0 19 32 2 12 1 0 0 1115 97.9% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 233.94 269.9 249.9 All 2015 Games 2016 ATL 16 63 101 380 23 6 16 0 29 48 5 17 3 1 0 1021 98.3% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 347.46 374.5 354.5 All 2016 Games 2017 ATL 16 33 74 224 16 5 16 0 18 32 3 13 2 0 0 1024 100.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 228.10 255.1 240.1 All 2017 Games 2018 ATL 1 1 10 3 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 70 100.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 8.84 9.8 9.8 All 2018 Games Julio Jones: Inside 20 Inside 10 Snap Counts Receiving Receiving Off. Def. ST Fantasy Tm G Tgt Rec Yds TD Tgt Rec Yds TD Num Pct Num Pct Num Pct FantPt DKPt FDPt 96 100 48 370 20 51 21 96 12 4495 7 23 1185.3 1909.8 1488.8 2011 ATL 13 8 4 48 2 1 0 0 0 148.50 218.0 175.5 All 2011 Games 2012 ATL 16 20 11 108 7 10 3 20 3 836 78.9% 1 0.1% 2 0.5% 182.80 273.8 222.3 All 2012 Games 2013 ATL 5 9 5 17 1 7 4 12 1 295 86.0% 0 0.0% 1 0.7% 68.70 119.7 89.2 All 2013 Games 2014 ATL 15 12 7 59 2 5 1 8 1 868 85.0% 1 0.1% 2 0.5% 193.40 319.4 245.4 All 2014 Games 2015 ATL 16 21 12 83 5 11 6 29 4 969 85.1% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 233.10 403.1 307.1 All 2015 Games 2016 ATL 14 9 4 22 2 6 3 11 2 705 77.2% 4 0.4% 15 3.6% 176.90 280.9 218.4 All 2016 Games 2017 ATL 16 18 5 33 1 10 4 16 1 765 74.7% 0 0.0% 3 0.7% 163.90 263.9 207.9 All 2017 Games 2018 ATL 1 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 57 81.4% 1 1.4% 0 0.0% 18.00 31.0 23.0 All 2018 Games I understand why people think Julio should be a monster in the redzone. It makes sense logically, to a point. But the numbers don't bear this out at all. Julio just isn't a productive red zone receiver, and what's more, the more he gets targeted the worse his QB performs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanedorf Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 18 minutes ago, MrBobGray said: Julio just isn't a productive red zone receiver, and what's more, the more he gets targeted the worse his QB performs. Thx for the work on this, greatly appreciated Is Julio considered a long- strider ? I remember reading that about Megatron, that it took him awhile to get up to speed. Given your skills with running PFR stats , how did Megatron do in the RZ with Stafford ? That seems like a viable comparison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 I love @MrBobGray. He's my new best friend here. More facts! Mr. Bob Gray, I love you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrBobGray Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 10 minutes ago, Shanedorf said: Thx for the work on this, greatly appreciated Is Julio considered a long- strider ? I remember reading that about Megatron, that it took him awhile to get up to speed. Given your skills with running PFR stats , how did Megatron do in the RZ with Stafford ? That seems like a viable comparison He's got a bit of a longer stride just due to his height, but actually I think he gets up to speed at a pretty elite level for scale. Not many 6'3", 215 lb receivers ever who could accelerate like he does. But I was curious about the Megatron/Stafford comparison, so I pulled the numbers, and found that it was literally the exact opposite to Julio/Ryan: Calvin Johnson: Inside 20 Inside 10 Snap Counts Rushing Receiving Rushing Receiving Off. Def. ST Fantasy Tm G Att Yds TD Tgt Rec Yds TD Att Yds TD Tgt Rec Yds TD Num Pct Num Pct Num Pct FantPt DKPt FDPt 135 1 11 0 151 69 595 48 0 0 0 65 29 113 27 3740 4 9 1668.6 2546.6 2034.1 2007 DET 15 1 11 0 11 6 50 3 0 0 0 4 2 13 2 110.80 161.8 134.8 All 2007 Games 2008 DET 16 0 0 0 14 7 93 6 0 0 0 4 1 9 1 204.00 298.5 243.0 All 2008 Games 2009 DET 14 0 0 0 19 4 14 3 0 0 0 11 4 14 3 132.70 210.2 166.2 All 2009 Games 2010 DET 15 0 0 0 14 8 92 7 0 0 0 5 2 8 2 188.20 277.7 226.7 All 2010 Games 2011 DET 16 0 0 0 24 13 101 9 0 0 0 11 6 18 6 264.20 384.7 312.2 All 2011 Games 2012 DET 16 0 0 0 17 6 50 2 0 0 0 8 2 9 1 1151 96.0% 0 0.0% 2 0.4% 220.40 378.4 281.4 All 2012 Games 2013 DET 14 0 0 0 23 10 78 7 0 0 0 8 4 11 4 892 88.5% 1 0.1% 4 1.0% 219.20 325.2 261.2 All 2013 Games 2014 DET 13 0 0 0 13 4 32 4 0 0 0 6 3 16 3 695 79.2% 1 0.1% 1 0.3% 155.70 241.7 191.2 All 2014 Games 2015 DET 16 0 0 0 16 11 85 7 0 0 0 8 5 15 5 1002 92.9% 2 0.2% 2 0.4% 173.40 268.4 217.4 All 2015 Games Matthew Stafford: Inside 20 Inside 10 Snap Counts Passing Rushing Passing Rushing Off. Def. ST Fantasy Tm G Cmp Att Yds TD Att Yds TD Cmp Att Yds TD Att Yds TD Num Pct Num Pct Num Pct FantPt DKPt FDPt 125 330 657 2299 153 39 106 14 135 276 27 104 27 63 14 6508 0 0 2165.56 2430.1 2284.6 2009 DET 10 17 40 101 8 3 10 2 8 19 4 6 3 10 2 123.48 148.5 143.5 All 2009 Games 2010 DET 3 12 20 86 6 1 1 1 4 6 0 3 1 1 1 52.50 54.5 53.5 All 2010 Games 2011 DET 16 50 110 394 29 3 17 0 19 40 3 18 2 8 0 340.32 382.8 356.3 All 2011 Games 2012 DET 16 39 87 297 15 9 15 4 16 45 3 9 7 12 4 1180 98.4% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 275.58 321.6 293.1 All 2012 Games 2013 DET 16 39 79 332 21 5 16 2 12 27 2 11 4 14 2 1133 99.8% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 278.90 319.9 297.9 All 2013 Games 2014 DET 16 40 84 265 16 3 8 2 15 37 1 12 2 6 2 1093 100.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 251.58 278.6 263.6 All 2014 Games 2015 DET 16 48 73 323 26 6 3 1 27 36 6 21 3 3 1 1033 95.7% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 289.78 314.8 303.3 All 2015 Games 2016 DET 16 51 89 315 17 6 24 2 18 34 6 12 4 9 2 1037 100.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 279.78 303.8 289.8 All 2016 Games 2017 DET 16 34 75 186 15 3 12 0 16 32 2 12 1 0 0 1032 99.1% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 273.64 305.6 283.6 All 2017 Games Stafford's three biggest year's by TDs were the three years that Calvin caught double-digit passes in the redzone. He scored 9, 7, and 7 TDs in those seasons, the only seasons Stafford broke 20 TDs in the redzone. So I'd say this is another pretty good example of the issue with Julio, as that's the sort of correlation you'd expect to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrBobGray Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Just now, Outpost31 said: I love @MrBobGray. He's my new best friend here. More facts! Mr. Bob Gray, I love you. I got u boo. We'll die on this hill together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 1 hour ago, MrBobGray said: In terms of his opportunities, Julio was the most targeted Falcon in the redzone in 2017, 2015, 2012, and 2011. He was 2nd in targets in 2014 (2 behind Roddy White). 2013 was a wash because he missed almost the whole year. That leaves one clear outlier: 2016, when he was 5th on the team in red zone targets. This should be telling. The Falcons best offense year ever, and Matt Ryan's best year throwing in the redzone, came when they threw the ball to Julio the least in the redzone of his career. And correspondingly, the more he targets Julio, the worse he does in the redzone: Matt Ryan: Inside 20 Inside 10 Snap Counts Passing Rushing Passing Rushing Off. Def. ST Fantasy Tm G Cmp Att Yds TD Att Yds TD Cmp Att Yds TD Att Yds TD Num Pct Num Pct Num Pct FantPt DKPt FDPt 159 431 805 2852 185 51 101 6 182 349 32 132 21 5 5 6409 0 0 2564.98 2855 2692 2008 ATL 16 30 64 226 9 12 17 2 9 21 1 6 5 5 1 194.00 214.0 205.0 All 2008 Games 2009 ATL 14 27 56 182 15 7 1 1 10 22 1 10 4 -3 1 182.54 202.0 196.5 All 2009 Games 2010 ATL 16 50 87 332 22 10 8 0 16 30 2 14 3 -5 0 258.40 272.4 267.4 All 2010 Games 2011 ATL 16 38 81 281 18 2 2 2 16 35 6 12 2 2 2 274.48 307.0 286.5 All 2011 Games 2012 ATL 16 55 92 360 25 4 28 1 19 39 4 17 1 5 1 1050 99.1% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 304.86 341.9 318.9 All 2012 Games 2013 ATL 16 54 101 353 21 1 4 0 25 50 1 14 0 0 0 1065 98.9% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 248.10 290.1 265.1 All 2013 Games 2014 ATL 16 38 64 216 19 0 0 0 21 36 7 17 0 0 0 1064 98.4% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 284.26 318.3 298.3 All 2014 Games 2015 ATL 16 42 75 295 17 4 9 0 19 32 2 12 1 0 0 1115 97.9% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 233.94 269.9 249.9 All 2015 Games 2016 ATL 16 63 101 380 23 6 16 0 29 48 5 17 3 1 0 1021 98.3% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 347.46 374.5 354.5 All 2016 Games 2017 ATL 16 33 74 224 16 5 16 0 18 32 3 13 2 0 0 1024 100.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 228.10 255.1 240.1 All 2017 Games 2018 ATL 1 1 10 3 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 70 100.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 8.84 9.8 9.8 All 2018 Games Julio Jones: Inside 20 Inside 10 Snap Counts Receiving Receiving Off. Def. ST Fantasy Tm G Tgt Rec Yds TD Tgt Rec Yds TD Num Pct Num Pct Num Pct FantPt DKPt FDPt 96 100 48 370 20 51 21 96 12 4495 7 23 1185.3 1909.8 1488.8 2011 ATL 13 8 4 48 2 1 0 0 0 148.50 218.0 175.5 All 2011 Games 2012 ATL 16 20 11 108 7 10 3 20 3 836 78.9% 1 0.1% 2 0.5% 182.80 273.8 222.3 All 2012 Games 2013 ATL 5 9 5 17 1 7 4 12 1 295 86.0% 0 0.0% 1 0.7% 68.70 119.7 89.2 All 2013 Games 2014 ATL 15 12 7 59 2 5 1 8 1 868 85.0% 1 0.1% 2 0.5% 193.40 319.4 245.4 All 2014 Games 2015 ATL 16 21 12 83 5 11 6 29 4 969 85.1% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 233.10 403.1 307.1 All 2015 Games 2016 ATL 14 9 4 22 2 6 3 11 2 705 77.2% 4 0.4% 15 3.6% 176.90 280.9 218.4 All 2016 Games 2017 ATL 16 18 5 33 1 10 4 16 1 765 74.7% 0 0.0% 3 0.7% 163.90 263.9 207.9 All 2017 Games 2018 ATL 1 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 57 81.4% 1 1.4% 0 0.0% 18.00 31.0 23.0 All 2018 Games I understand why people think Julio should be a monster in the redzone. It makes sense logically, to a point. But the numbers don't bear this out at all. Julio just isn't a productive red zone receiver, and what's more, the more he gets targeted the worse his QB performs. You fall into the issue of high leverage reps here, something that makes statistical analysis of football so difficult. Is it inefficient because Julio is dropping balls? Is Ryan trying to loft it in against double coverage? What's happening? Stats don't give you the answer in football. They bring up the questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dubz41 Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 Wow, hate to have to admit it, but MrBob and Outpost have won this debate. They've backed up their perspective with the cold hard facts. While the opposite view can only site exceptions and more variables. Well done Samwise and Frodo! You have prevailed in your quest (from my perspective) Note- didn't stop me from getting Julio Jones on both of my fantasy teams though. Statistical probability that he snaps that trend in a big way this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Golfman Posted September 8, 2018 Author Share Posted September 8, 2018 8 hours ago, Dubz41 said: Wow, hate to have to admit it, but MrBob and Outpost have won this debate. They've backed up their perspective with the cold hard facts. While the opposite view can only site exceptions and more variables. Well done Samwise and Frodo! You have prevailed in your quest (from my perspective) Note- didn't stop me from getting Julio Jones on both of my fantasy teams though. Statistical probability that he snaps that trend in a big way this year. Not if Matt Ryan doesn't throw the ball a heck of a lot better than he did on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kepler Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 It warms my heart every time Matt "tepid water" Ryan proves all his critics right. The guy's facial expressions remind me of confused elderly men in an old folks home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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