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Buy / Sell / Hold


Forge

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Its only week one, but I think this is a mandatory thread. Who are guys you are looking to buy / sell, or are you holding.

Adrian Peterson- I think this is a sell, particularly in PPR leagues. He had a strong first game, but game flow helped, and obviously you can't bank on a 55 yard pass completion every week from him. I think if you have a team in your league, particularly someone who owns Bell or something like that, you should sell high on him now.

Royce Freeman - Hold, but with an eye on selling. Lindsays carry share really concerned me in week one, particularly given he's the better pass catching back out of the backfield for the broncos. Freeman still logged 15 carries, but in a ppr league, I'm not loving this. I may actively shop him as part of a bigger deal this week, but not actively shop him solo. I am a little concerned that his value will deteriorate, but hard to know because of game flow and the like.

James Connor - I think I'm holding him, but I think a lot of this depends on your running back situation. If you went RB/RB, you probably have the running back depth to sell him off for good value at this point. In my main league, I went RB/WR/TE, so my Rb2 slot is shaky at best (Freeman / Peterson). Obviously, bell is coming back at some point. Not sure if it's coming this week or not, but I Think at this point, with that offense, you just juice this orange as much as possible and then bench him when Bell is back (I'd still roster him because hold outs give me injury concerns). Sure, you can probably get very good value at this point for him, but unless you're stacked at running back, I think he offers too much production in that offense.

Devonta Freeman - Will depend on what you can get for him, but I actually think at this point, Coleman is the better back, and even more well rounded. Wouldn't want to sell him too low, but I'm not comfortable with him as anything more than an RB2 / Flex play, which is probably lower than his second round value price point at this juncture. If I have him, I think I want to sell if I can get like 95 cents on the dollar, and I'm avoiding buying him. I also don't love that he's again banged up it seems.

There are some guys who had meh week one's (Cook, CMC), that I would certainly target to buy if their owners are at all concerned (I really want to grab CMC in my main money league as it is a full PPR league and the guy who has him has both he and Kamara, which is an insanely high floor in full ppr leagues for his running back position. Really want to break that up if I can). Not sure that 1 week is sufficient to get any sort of real discounted value on either of those guys though.

Kareem Hunt I wasn't a fan of in the pre draft, but I may target him in my league. The guy that had him also had Baldwin, and it seems like he's going to be out for a bit as well. May be a good chance to offer depth for a more upper end running back, and I have major concerns about my running back situation moving forward (as I am currently being saved by the fact that I have connor). I'm thinking of offering up maybe Royce Freeman + a receiver for Hunt. I'm giving more value than Hunt is probably worth in that, but the receiver part really won't hurt me all that much. Or maybe I'll offer Peterson + Cooks or something along those lines, or Peterson + Davis, etc etc.

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Peterson- sell. Agree with everything 

Freeman- sell at first good opportunity. Right now his value is too low. He could bounce back with a TD next week. The problem is that he is a poor receiver and Lindsay simply looks more talented. I’d sell him next week if he has a decent game. 

Conner- buy!!! It’s probably too late. He’s going to be an RB1 as long as he starts...and don’t be surprised if he retains a significant role once Bell returns. 

Freeman- sell. The guy just can’t stay healthy, and Coleman may be better anyway (or at least it’s close). He still has name value. I’d hope he has a good game this week, then sell. 

Cook- tough call. He didn’t play well in limited time in the preseason and still is struggling with efficiency. I’d sell if I could get good value for him because it very well could be late in the season before he gets his legs back. 

CMC- Buy. He’s going to get tons of opportunity, and I think that we probably witnessed his floor this week. 

Hunt- Buy. I just can’t see all of his goal line opportunities vulchered and not being involved in the passing game all season. Seemed like a game flow issue. I’ll admit that the Chiefs do look like they want to throw downfield more, which could hurt Hunt and Kelce, but I still fully expect Hunt to at least be a strong RB2.

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3 minutes ago, sammymvpknight said:

Cook- tough call. He didn’t play well in limited time in the preseason and still is struggling with efficiency. I’d sell if I could get good value for him because it very well could be late in the season before he gets his legs back

The thing I like about Cook is that the 49er run defense is legit, and I don't think a ton of people know that. I Think he was just facing a tough opponent to run the ball on in week one, so I would be hoping to capitalize off that. 

 

Anyone else that you are looking at buying / selling or holding on to for now? 

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9 minutes ago, sammymvpknight said:

Conner- buy!!! It’s probably too late. He’s going to be an RB1 as long as he starts...and don’t be surprised if he retains a significant role once Bell returns. 

I currently have Conner. My RB2 is weak (miller) Really trying to work out if I keep Conner as my RB2 or package him for someone else?

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2 minutes ago, G-McDog said:

I currently have Conner. My RB2 is weak (miller) Really trying to work out if I keep Conner as my RB2 or package him for someone else?

This is one of the issues I'm facing. I don't love my second running back options (Royce Freeman, AP, Matt Breida), and I'm basically being saved by Connor for the time being. I think I'm just going to ride it out and keep him in the lineup as long as possible rather than trading him, especially since I would have injury concerns on Bell when he comes back. 

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7 minutes ago, Forge said:

This is one of the issues I'm facing. I don't love my second running back options (Royce Freeman, AP, Matt Breida), and I'm basically being saved by Connor for the time being. I think I'm just going to ride it out and keep him in the lineup as long as possible rather than trading him, especially since I would have injury concerns on Bell when he comes back. 

Would it be worth it to get mixon. I'm very strong at RB1 and both WR positions!!

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28 minutes ago, Forge said:

The thing I like about Cook is that the 49er run defense is legit, and I don't think a ton of people know that. I Think he was just facing a tough opponent to run the ball on in week one, so I would be hoping to capitalize off that. 

 

Anyone else that you are looking at buying / selling or holding on to for now? 

I’d go along with that if he gave me some indication that he was going to be good in the preseason. Murray looked better in the preseason. I’d be concerned that a timeshare situation occurs. At least Cook looks semi capable as a receiver, which helps him. 

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36 minutes ago, sammymvpknight said:

Conner- buy!!! It’s probably too late. He’s going to be an RB1 as long as he starts...and don’t be surprised if he retains a significant role once Bell returns.

 

See, I just buy the bolded for the exact same reason that Bell is holding out - and why I'll honestly be surprised if we see Bell before Week 10 (with Johnson's recent extension, coming back sooner than then isn't going to realistically earn Le'Veon any more money than if he stands pat and doesn't put any more wear on his body).  Unless Conner's on an MVP-caliber season when Bell comes back, they're going to throw Bell out there and if Bell is anywhere close to his past performances, they'll run Bell (because Bell won't be there next season and will still be running motivated, and they aren't going to risk injury/tread on Conner).  Now, can I see Tomlin being petty and pulling Bell inside the 10 and putting in Conner for the glory?  Absolutely.  But you can't predict that and, barring juicy matchups, that doesn't make Conner a weekly starter as anything more than a flex.

That said, I'm now firmly holding Conner in any league that has keepers because we're seeing exactly what he's capable of moving forward and into next season.

In my other league where I own him, I'm not trading him except for someone who I feel I can get season-long value out of as a weekly starter.  And realistically, I'm probably going to be offering out Rex or Sony Michel in place of Conner, since I have Zeke and CMac in that league and right now Conner is one of my two Flex's.

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45 minutes ago, Forge said:

The thing I like about Cook is that the 49er run defense is legit, and I don't think a ton of people know that. I Think he was just facing a tough opponent to run the ball on in week one, so I would be hoping to capitalize off that. 

 

Anyone else that you are looking at buying / selling or holding on to for now? 

Game script also didn't help Cook a ton.  The Vikings were up and in control (yes, the Niners looked a legitimate threat to come back all day) the whole day; what was the motivation of the coaching staff to force a heavy load on Cook if they didn't have to?  Particularly when Cousins was moving the ball well through the air because Thielen and Diggs were seemingly getting open at will.

Given what we saw Jordan Howard average in terms of YPC against the Packers' defense last night, I'd hold Cook for now to at least see that game through.

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I’m thinking about packaging Conner and Brandin Cooks for a better WR2 in a ppr with .5 pts per ten return yards. I’m not necessarily targeting anyone in particular.

Other rbs: Mixon, Howard, Gordon, Cohen

Wrs: Hopkins, Lockett, Robbie Anderson

Conner may outperform all of my other rbs until Leveon comes back, but I think another consistent receiver will be more important come playoff time.

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12 hours ago, Forge said:

Kareem Hunt I wasn't a fan of in the pre draft, but I may target him in my league. The guy that had him also had Baldwin, and it seems like he's going to be out for a bit as well. May be a good chance to offer depth for a more upper end running back, and I have major concerns about my running back situation moving forward (as I am currently being saved by the fact that I have connor). I'm thinking of offering up maybe Royce Freeman + a receiver for Hunt. I'm giving more value than Hunt is probably worth in that, but the receiver part really won't hurt me all that much. Or maybe I'll offer Peterson + Cooks or something along those lines, or Peterson + Davis, etc etc.

I would do either of these trades if you can pull them off. I’m looking to buy Hunt in a standard league. He had a few stinkers last year. Defenses are gonna have to adjust to Mahomes.

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What should I do with Jimmy Ghraham? Does he hold any trade value now or am I stuck with him? Its a league with big rosters and I drafted Njoku because it was good value and was smart enough to pick up Jared Cook on saturday. I feel like I have too many TEs. I honestly hate jimmy Ghraham and probably wont play him that much. I was thinking he was someone I could get in a later round that had #1 TE upside considering the endzone work he could get, but rodgers didnt even seem like he was looking for the guy. Hes also very slow and soft. Shouldnt have drafted him considering how much I hate him lol

I offered someone Ghraham and Breida for Peyton Barber and Ekler (SD's backup RB). Hopefully he takes it. I honestly would do Breida and Gharam for just barber if the guy would bite. I have watson and no other QB and Mahomes is available

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7 minutes ago, NcFinest9erFan said:

Hmmm what to do with amari cooper????

Sorry. I don’t know what to say. The guy may just be a mediocre WR. You have to hold him unless someone is willing to trade based on name value alone. Perhaps a packaged deal that takes the focus off Cooper. So glad I didn’t take the bait on him. I preach it on this site, and I’m right more often than not. Believe in ability and production...not potential. Potential led people to buy into McKinnon and Cooper this year. 

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So I'm curious about my James Connor situation.  I'm in a weird 12 team league that has 2 flexes, and one of which includes a QB option (in a league where passing TD's are 6 points, you basically have to start a QB there), and I hopped on the bandwagon late realizing that during the draft when there was a run on QB's. So my QB's are Winston, Wentz and Jimmy G, and because of that I had to pick up a QB to start while Wentz is gone (As a side note, I may be the only person to start Fitzpatrick, because he was literally the only starting QB available).  

So on to the situation; with my first pick being Bell, I'm not in the best shape for RB's, but I'm curious about looking for guys to try to buy.  I was thinking of trying to double up on value come playoff time when Bell returns, so trying to target someone who's down like Jordan Howard or CMC, and then potentially get an upgrade at QB while I'm at it from Jimmy G (like Mahomes maybe).  Thoughts?

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