What if Mitch is not the guy?

[AZBearsFan]

55 minutes ago, JustAnotherFan said:

Oh I am comparing apples to apples? Are you though?  

I was going to post this is in NFL gen either tomorrow or the next day after I finish revisions, but since we're on it, I'll post this of Trubisky since I know it's fully completed. 

Trubisky	Total By Tier
	Com	Att	Com%	Yds	TD	INT	QBR
LOS-	19	22	86.4	-49	1	0	94.3
1-10	22	29	75.9	110	0	1	66.7
11-30	7	17	41.2	110	1	0	83.0
31-50	0	1	0.0	0	0	1	-12.5
51+	0	0	#DIV/0!	0	0	0	#DIV/0!

A quick legend: LOS means passes thrown at or behind the LOS (YAC subtracted). I compiled all of the data, by yardage and distance of each throw.

Here is a look at the rest of the QB's in full detail. Again, this is not yet finished. We are also looking into the those passes that have not been tracked (obvious throw aways, tipped passes, etc --- see Matt Ryan notes). And I have also not yet compiled all of that data yet.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1BbhUASa_AHhii86MYpA153A3K6AADt1EYRFGVwGQsxE/edit#gid=2028610757

This is exactly the kind of stuff I’m talking about, yeah. I’ll be interested to see it after we have more than 2 game sample sizes too. Thanks for sharing. I’m a big fan of what you’re doing there.

Your tool is still somewhat limited in being outcome-based though IMO, at least in its present form. This statement is not meant in any way as a criticism of your tool so please don’t take it as that. It sounds like you have plans already to address some of that, and it’s somewhat backward to not consider results when football performance, especially at QB, is largely a results-based game. With that, I’m curious to see if you can figure a way to account for poor decisions that go without consequence like a dropped INT, a throw back across the field after a rollout resulting in an incompletion, a QB taking off and running when a receiver was open and a better option or a check down when a bigger chunk play was open. In a strict statistical analysis, Mitch is downgraded for getting a pass tipped at the line and picked off Monday even though he seemingly made the right read, but not so for the dropped INT at the goal line, and that’s flawed to me. What about circumstantial plays like 4th quarter and trailing, 4th down forced plays, receivers falling down after a pass is thrown or Hail Mary plays? What about a guy on 3rd and 18 throwing a 50-yard pass that results in a pick but is effectively the same as a punt? Those things all matter too when measuring a player’s value and performance and go beyond analysis of standard measurables, and I’m not sure how they can best be quantified short of one completely unbiased yet credible person watching every play by every QB and charting them. Nobody who would actually do this kind of thing doesn’t like football a great deal ahead of time and because of that probably has some bias introducing allegiance somewhere. 

In case it isn’t showing through, this kind of complex analysis is fascinating to me, and IMO gives a much more thorough picture of how well or poorly someone is performing. Thanks again for sharing. I’m looking forward to seeing this evolve.

[Sugashane]

22 minutes ago, JustAnotherFan said:

I know you didn't mean 'everyone' as in literal terms suga. Me saying "not everyone" were not meant to be taken as serious as the word itself may suggest either. I was taken your quote as you saying that anyone worried or freaking out when Trubisky doesn't complete a pass is wrong in do so.

It's been both. Most of these completions are first reads(mostly scripted) and others are just him not anticipating the routes altogether and staying in the (clean)pocket long enough to see those 3rd and 4th looks. He freaks outs the second that he feel pressure (when there really isn't any to begin with because all he has to do step UP in the pocket and no evade it) which takes his eyes off the field. 

Others are not Nagy. You brought in Gabriel to help take the top off the defense.....why arent you using him like that?  There was one play(not sure if this was by design or someone missing the play) when Trubisky had max protection---times 10---literally 8 blockers(who still got pressure) and only 2 WR's BOTH lined up on the left side with NO outlet for Trubisky on the right. Knowing damn well that Trubisky is right-handed and his first reaction his to run to his right side. there is a difference in max protect and overkill max protection. That's on Nagy.

I'll get more into this later. I plan on posting the all-22 for the Bears(maybe other teams as well--we'll see) and going into detail of these plays that referring too. 

 This is a hypothetical question I know. But, I have been saying for the last year that Ried sitting Mahomes behind a veteran QB will do him well in the long run. He has came further than I imagine--albeit 2 games

. But this does go back to me saying last year that Fox was only putting Trubisky in to save his job and that it was the wrong move because throwing a raw QB into that type of hell with a banged up a OL and no legit targets would destroy his confidence in the long run. 

I agree that it takes time for QB. Especially him with as raw as he is. My problem is not because he is not developing fast enough. My problem is that he showing the same issues as he did last year and even regressing on some that he did show (i.e. I liked that he took shots downfield on 3rd down....no matter idf it was 10 to go or 30. he wasn't scared. This year he is. He's very figgity in the pocket.

 

I see. I've had a few posts of mine misconstrued in other parts of the forum, that's my bad there.

 

Tru's internal clock is a mess I agree, but I think that will improve in time. Last year we had so many 3rd and longs he HAD to take some shots to have any real chance of moving the offense. Especially since so many 3rd downs were longs and obvious passing situations. He had a LOT of pressure last year there. Maybe with a healthy OL and WRs he can trust to get off press he will get it straightened out this year rather than next (though I prefer him to bail early rather than be oblivious to it). Now we have a defense that can keep us in any game almost, so I think he is being directed by Nagy to try to pick his shots. The deep INT isn't a huge issue to me in that it was an INT (it was essentially a punt for us in terms of field position), I was more disappointed in the poor form of the throw and Robinson not trying to break it up. I expected his pocket presence and clock on routes to be off just due to the system being so new and having so much pressure last year up the middle.

We're in total agreement with some of the head scratching issues Nagy as had. Sometimes he appears to be trying to try something for the sake of it. As long as he scraps the bad and gets everyone on the same page I'll take the occasional odd call though. Any All-22/breakdowns would be awesome to see.

If we had a decent QB to sit him behind then I would have been for it. My biggest reason for wanting him to play was to acclimate to NFL speed and get some experience. I know he played at least some time in something like 30 games in college but only started 13. Mahomes was the star in Texas Tech for years, so he had a lot of gameplay under his belt by comparison. Miller going down was brutal for Tru, he was going to be THE main component of the passing game and a safety net for Tru. I've kinda made up  my mind to check on both Tru and Nagy in a quarterly fashion. If there isn't more efficient offensive playcalling in by week 8 then weeks 1-4 then I will start getting concerned.

[JAF-N72EX]

First off, thank you for the kind words AZ.

Secondly, yes, I plan to release alot more in-depth player scouting (if I can) and not just analytics that will (hopefully) paint a much clearer picture regarding a players performance. I actually want to do it with every team--so that EVERYONE has a much clearer view of all players aside from what I call raw stats (ATLEAST QB's anyhow so we don't have this same BS narrative "well you haven't watched X player") but unfortunately that option is kind of out of my hands because there is only so much I (we) can do thanks to other parties involved (*clears throat for those who know who I'm talking about*). Alot of entities are getting greedy which it hard for us who TRULY want to paint the full picture.

To me, analytics tell you what happened. Scouting tells you WHY that happned. So I get what you're saying and I agree with you 100%. 

 

[JAF-N72EX]

31 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

 

I see. I've had a few posts of mine misconstrued in other parts of the forum, that's my bad there.

 

Tru's internal clock is a mess I agree, but I think that will improve in time. Last year we had so many 3rd and longs he HAD to take some shots to have any real chance of moving the offense. Especially since so many 3rd downs were longs and obvious passing situations. He had a LOT of pressure last year there. Maybe with a healthy OL and WRs he can trust to get off press he will get it straightened out this year rather than next (though I prefer him to bail early rather than be oblivious to it). Now we have a defense that can keep us in any game almost, so I think he is being directed by Nagy to try to pick his shots. The deep INT isn't a huge issue to me in that it was an INT (it was essentially a punt for us in terms of field position), I was more disappointed in the poor form of the throw and Robinson not trying to break it up. I expected his pocket presence and clock on routes to be off just due to the system being so new and having so much pressure last year up the middle.

We're in total agreement with some of the head scratching issues Nagy as had. Sometimes he appears to be trying to try something for the sake of it. As long as he scraps the bad and gets everyone on the same page I'll take the occasional odd call though. Any All-22/breakdowns would be awesome to see.

If we had a decent QB to sit him behind then I would have been for it. My biggest reason for wanting him to play was to acclimate to NFL speed and get some experience. I know he played at least some time in something like 30 games in college but only started 13. Mahomes was the star in Texas Tech for years, so he had a lot of gameplay under his belt by comparison. Miller going down was brutal for Tru, he was going to be THE main component of the passing game and a safety net for Tru. I've kinda made up  my mind to check on both Tru and Nagy in a quarterly fashion. If there isn't more efficient offensive playcalling in by week 8 then weeks 1-4 then I will start getting concerned.

I hear y a and I'm hoping for the best as well man. It's just concerned seeing these same issue from last year(that have nothing to do with the staff or players) rear it's ugly head yet again. And show a regression in those upside parts last season....all at the same time. 

That said though, I don't wanna come off as a fan who is only looking at two games and thinking that this is it and what it's going to be. Because that is far from the truth. I may not have had faith Tru coming out of college but he proved me wrong on alot of thing last season. Forget what the stats sheet says. 

I feel like we're backtracking here a bit almost into irrelevancy(my fault I guess lol) but at the time my thought was...you just paid a QB big dollars for who you, obviously thought, would you be OK with for the entire season while your future RAW star(Mitch) sat the bench and learned the game from a veteran(AKA Maholmes). But no, he was thrown to the wolves after only a few games with no reliable protection and noone to throw too instead.

I do agree that I should curb my pessimism a bit until atleast a quarter of the season has passed though. I guess that's just part of usual "the Bears can never have good ****" mentality. I'll admit that.

 

   

[Superman(DH23)]

Btw guys dafreak is a packers fan (lots of posts against the bears in their forum)and this is the 2nd time hes done this and come in to start trolling pretending to be a bears fan. Ignore him and he'll go away again.

[Madmike90]

I think anyone looking at what Mayfield done with trying to push the ball down the field compared to what Tru is doing doesn't understand that massive differences in Nagy's and Haley's offences...Nagy is all about short passes to set up bombs where as Haley is purely a vertical based offence...these guys are being asked to do very different things...Mayfield did look good last night but let's not overreact...it was still a very average performance in the grand scheme of it.

[ColGerBear]

 

patience is key.

[Sugashane]

6 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

I hear y a and I'm hoping for the best as well man. It's just concerned seeing these same issue from last year(that have nothing to do with the staff or players) rear it's ugly head yet again. And show a regression in those upside parts last season....all at the same time. 

That said though, I don't wanna come off as a fan who is only looking at two games and thinking that this is it and what it's going to be. Because that is far from the truth. I may not have had faith Tru coming out of college but he proved me wrong on alot of thing last season. Forget what the stats sheet says. 

I feel like we're backtracking here a bit almost into irrelevancy(my fault I guess lol) but at the time my thought was...you just paid a QB big dollars for who you, obviously thought, would you be OK with for the entire season while your future RAW star(Mitch) sat the bench and learned the game from a veteran(AKA Maholmes). But no, he was thrown to the wolves after only a few games with no reliable protection and noone to throw too instead.

I do agree that I should curb my pessimism a bit until atleast a quarter of the season has passed though. I guess that's just part of usual "the Bears can never have good ****" mentality. I'll admit that.

You're right to have concerns, two parts that make the issues bearable is - 1- Loggains sucks and was not helping to fix his issues and 2- Nagy helped Mahomes evolve after had MUCH more gametime to reinforce his bad habits. Now I won't go as far as saying Tru's footwork will be dramatically better come week 17, but I don't expect to see the shuffling before a deep throw as he did with Robinson. I expect his YPA to slowly creep up as the year goes on as well, as the offense gels and Tru gets more trust/comfort in his cast and scheme (I believe YPA will end around 6.8, but that is a significant jump due to how low we are starting). I expect next year to be his big jump.

 

It would have been a brutal season as a fan to see Glennon start 16, but I completely get what you're saying. I would have been happy to if I thought Loggains or Glennon would have been worth a damn for Tru's progression. If he had Nagy, DeFilippo, Clements, McDaniels, etc then I would have been banging the table to let him sit for at least the majority of the season. The only positive to me with those two was Tru getting some in-game experience. I knew the regime was going to be scrapped, so there was not going to be consistency and I have an admittedly massive negative predisposition toward Loggains. The lack of talent on the offense was horrible though, no doubt, and that was definite cause for concern.

I personally think a big part of the Pace/Glennon deal was a smokescreen. Pay Glennon too much, but structure it so he is easy to cut the next offseason. That made it seem - to me - that he was never intended to stay. I think the Glennon signing threw people off the Bears' scent in their pursuit of a QB. This allowed them to be far less contested in trading up and getting the guy he wanted. I have no proof, maybe it is just my homerism that pushes the idea to me. lol

Pessimism doesn't need to be curbed as much in your case, you're still at least giving him credit where it is due. What is killing me is that few people are being realistic. Few people would have said that they expected an MVP worthy season of him, but I feel like many people are outright disappointed in him because he isn't. We all WANT the Wentz turnaround, but it just isn't going to happen like that. But we are set up much like they are - offensive QB centric staff, dominant defense, talent all over at the OL,  etc. My expectations are much higher for 2019, but I do have hope for significant improvement through the year.

And we do have nice ****. Look at that defense and our top players. We got a DPOY to console me a bit. lol

Hopefully Tru ascends to be on that list.

[G08]

Someone posted the video below on Reddit and I was kind of taken aback... 2017 MT10 was seeing the field and throwing it with conviction. 2018 MT10 hesitates, and I think it's because he has SO MUCH information running through his brain. I read once that Taylor Gabriel said he had 4 different options on one route based on what the defense is doing. Imagine being a QB and having 2-3 seconds to scan a defense, think how your WRs should be adjusting, hope that they see the defense the same way you see it, and then get the ball out accurately and with velocity. It's a heavy load, and I get it for sure. I wish he didn't miss Howard in the flat or a WIDE OPEN Gabriel on a chunk play, but those things happen. I'm okay with mistakes, my concern and anger will rise if it turns into consistent issues -- which I hope it doesn't.

 

 

[topwop1]

29 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

Pessimism doesn't need to be curbed as much in your case, you're still at least giving him credit where it is due. What is killing me is that few people are being realistic. Few people would have said that they expected an MVP worthy season of him, but I feel like many people are outright disappointed in him because he isn't. We all WANT the Wentz turnaround, but it just isn't going to happen like that. But we are set up much like they are - offensive QB centric staff, dominant defense, talent all over at the OL,  etc. My expectations are much higher for 2019, but I do have hope for significant improvement through the year.

 

Wentz's NFL rookie stats (16 games):

Att: 607 Comp: 379 Pct: 62.4 Yds: 3,782 TD: 16 INT: 14 Rate: 79.3

Trubisky's NFL stats (through 14 games):

Att: 399 Comp: 244 Pct: 61.2 Yds: 2,564 TD: 9 INT: 9 Rate: 77.9

Very similar numbers when you look at them side by side, and Wentz had the benefit of being in this system from Day 1 with better talent around him..also Wentz was deemed the more pro ready QB coming out of college.  Again, I didn't hear anybody calling Wentz a bust after his first 16 games as a starter and look what happened in his 2nd year when he took off and was a legitimate MVP candidate before getting injured.  I'm not saying Mitch will have the same trajectory as Wentz but this just goes to show that you should never be so quick to judge a young player after viewing  a limited sample size of playing time.  

If anything both Wentz's and Mahomes' play should be an encouraging sign of what Trubisky will become one day in the near future given more time to learn and grow into this offense.

[WindyCity]

In recent memory the QBs drafted high in the 1st round fit the 2 categories I mentioned

1. Come out strong and fade, before bouncing back or bustin

Darnold, although super unfair he had one decent game against a garbage team
Watson, 4 big games and then an injury and a step back to start this season
Mariota, huge season 3 regression
Carr, struggled last season
RG3, the poster child for this

2. Start slow and then build to something

Wentz, was really mediocre his entire first season before a massive year 2 jump
Goff, was terrible as a rookie, was okay for the first 7 games last season, was at an MVP level the last 8 games
Bortles, brutal 1st season, huge 2nd season, and then a regression back to average
Bridgewater, super pedestrian game manager production before the injury


The guys who really do not fit are Luck, who is a generational talent, and Mahomes who we do not have enough data on.

[Sugashane]

58 minutes ago, topwop1 said:

Wentz's NFL rookie stats (16 games):

Att: 607 Comp: 379 Pct: 62.4 Yds: 3,782 TD: 16 INT: 14 Rate: 79.3

Trubisky's NFL stats (through 14 games):

Att: 399 Comp: 244 Pct: 61.2 Yds: 2,564 TD: 9 INT: 9 Rate: 77.9

Very similar numbers when you look at them side by side, and Wentz had the benefit of being in this system from Day 1 with better talent around him..also Wentz was deemed the more pro ready QB coming out of college.  Again, I didn't hear anybody calling Wentz a bust after his first 16 games as a starter and look what happened in his 2nd year when he took off and was a legitimate MVP candidate before getting injured.  I'm not saying Mitch will have the same trajectory as Wentz but this just goes to show that you should never be so quick to judge a young player after viewing  a limited sample size of playing time.  

If anything both Wentz's and Mahomes' play should be an encouraging sign of what Trubisky will become one day in the near future given more time to learn and grow into this offense.

Thank you for putting numbers to my claims. This is exactly why I am preaching for patience. Drafting a QB isn't for just immediate success, it is for long-term success. Pace knew the crap he was going to have to deal with his 1st year, and the major learning curve he would be forced to face his 2nd. Tru's first year was basically a recorded redshirt year. Pace knew that from all the QB prospects, and felt Try had the highest chance of success. We have been waiting for the franchise QB for a damn long time and had to endure a Favre/Rodgers pair back to back and then Cousins walks into MIN. Stafford has moments of brilliance as well. We all want that, but too many fans expect it to just be an overnight deal and it is ridiculous to assume it is that easy.

 

1 hour ago, G08 said:

Someone posted the video below on Reddit and I was kind of taken aback... 2017 MT10 was seeing the field and throwing it with conviction. 2018 MT10 hesitates, and I think it's because he has SO MUCH information running through his brain. I read once that Taylor Gabriel said he had 4 different options on one route based on what the defense is doing. Imagine being a QB and having 2-3 seconds to scan a defense, think how your WRs should be adjusting, hope that they see the defense the same way you see it, and then get the ball out accurately and with velocity. It's a heavy load, and I get it for sure. I wish he didn't miss Howard in the flat or a WIDE OPEN Gabriel on a chunk play, but those things happen. I'm okay with mistakes, my concern and anger will rise if it turns into consistent issues -- which I hope it doesn't.

He went from having 2-3 options and then dump off to a real offense, and that is a hell of a spike. But look at Brady, Brees, Rodgers and Wentz. They have similar demands, and that is why once they learned it they became dominant each week (aside from obvious talent and work ethics of course). When they can process information of that magnitude and do it on the fly they can adapt to whatever is thrown their way. It won't be that Nagy/Tru were expecting man or zone, they will be able to recognize and audible it more quickly or find what route still is advantageous. Wentz last year threw so many trust passes, seeing the field and throwing it before the WR even started a break. It was beautiful to watch. Not even Brady threw to the WRs' leverage-side better. That came with time, and learning to do that was hell for him too. Trubisky didn't have a pro offense to develop habits in, he had to use a Loggains offense to get any foundation. He may be raw, but the positive is that he doesn't have heavily reinforced bad habits to break, he can be developed as Nagy wants (which is why I wanted DeFilippo so badly).

 

While not a perfect situation, it is still a pretty damn good one. Once he connects on those deeper routes it will do nothing but open things up all around too.

[SLCbear]

My take on Biscuit is that he is quite talented but vastly inexperienced .. a rich man's Alex Smith. The dude only played one year in college ! ...and not even 16 NFL starts yet !! 

He runs and throws better than Smith and should have the superior career .. also, 1st year with Nagy and 1st time starting season as clear starter. The kid has like 25 total starts since High School. The talent and tools are there, he will progress in the NFL at a MUCH HIGHER RATE than Alex Smith. He does try to do TOO much at times .. again inexperienced !!

Love his wheels! Love his heart! Love his moxy! He will be just fine .. growing pains for he and Nagy are inevitable, unavoidable even. Our D will carry the day until growing pains sibside. 

 

 

[WindyCity]

It is clear that Trubisky is from group 2 [slow start and building] because we have seen limited flashes from him.

That simply means that the questions become

1. How long does it take to get to his ceiling?

2. How high is the ceiling that he is slowly moving towards?

[G08]

10 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

It is clear that Trubisky is from group 2 [slow start and building] because we have seen limited flashes from him.

That simply means that the questions become

1. How long does it take to get to his ceiling?

2. How high is the ceiling that he is slowly moving towards?

Million dollar question. What I do like, oddly enough to say, is that it seems like Nagy is literally rewiring this kid's brain and teaching him how to be a QB in THIS offense. We are going to see some hiccups for sure, but once we start seeing flashes it's going to be God damned exciting!