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NickChowaniec

A Very Early Look at the 2019 Offseason

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I'm serious and maybe crazy? Haha. I already started looking, call it an overreaction if you'd like but we're bad and I need an excuse to feel good about our teams future outside of Josh Allen and the Tre White and Tre Edmunds combo. (Good thing the Sabres season starts soon, am I right?!)

So, I took a look at the upcoming free agent class and upcoming draft class. At the very least, this post serves as a guide gives for who to watch on other teams, as well as which college prospects to keep an eye on for us as we likely draft very early in the 2019 draft. Just kindly skip this thread if you're going to be the one who says it's too early to judge our season.

Let's start with who we might look to resign and let go.

__________________
 

2019 Pending Free Agents:

Kyle Williams – Retires. :( (TBD, but I think he calls it quits and retires after this horrendous year, god bless this man)
Vontae Davis – Not likely to be brought back. Hope he can prove me wrong.
Lorenzo Alexander – Expect a 1 year deal, good locker room guy and still seems to perform given his age.
Ryan Groy – I think he is best used as a depth rotational guy like he has in the past. If he can be brought back for that, sure, resign.
Kelvin Benjamin – Someone will overpay him, hope it's not us. He's basically a jump ball WR and that's it.
Jordan Mills – Could be a decent depth player, should not be a starter. Need to upgrade here and have needed to since he was named a starter years ago.
Marshall Newhouse – Would rather not have him back.
Ramon Humber – Hasn't done much to warrant being back (again). 
Jeremy Kerley – He's the only WR to show up so far, maybe gets another one year deal if he can keep it up.
Eddie Yarbrough – I think he gets a shorter term extension, somewhere between 2-4 mil per year depending on this year. 
Phillip Gaines – He needs to improve in a big way. I see him being let go if his current play continues.
Logan Thomas – Like what I've seen. Like Yarbrough, I think he is brought back relatively cheap for depth.
John Miller – Hope to see him improve as the year goes on, but it doesn't look good. Think it will be time to move on once the season ultimately ends.

 

Outlook on 2019 Free Agents to watch:

Offensive Line Options (more extensive list given the biggest need for us):
Ali Marpet, G/C (25, Tampa Bay Buccs)
Quinton Spain, G (28, Tennessee Titans)
Mike Iupati, G (32, Arizona Cardinals)
Mitch Morse, C (27, Kansas City Chiefs)
Matt Paradis, C (28, Denver Broncos)
Nick Easton, C (27, Minnesota Vikings) – On IR
Bobbie Massie, OT (29, Chicago Bears)
Rodger Saffold, G (30, LA Rams)
Ereck Flowers, RT (25, New York Giants) – Haven't been impressed by him, but maybe a cheap project?
Cedric Ogbuehi, OT (27, Cincinnati Bengals) – Similar to Flowers.
Jake Fisher, OT (25, Cincinnati Bengals) – Similar to Flowers, Ogbuehi.

Veteran QBs (options here aren't good, are they ever?):
Trevor Siemian, QB (27, Minnesota Vikings)
Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB – Lol ?
Kevin Hogan, QB (26, Denver Broncos)
Brett Hundley, QB (26, Seattle Seahawks)

Wide Receivers (not a lot of big names here):
Golden Tate, WR (31, Detroit Lions)
Randall Cobb, WR (29, Green Bay Packers)
Devin Funchess, WR (25, Carolina Panthers)
Donte Moncrief, WR (26, Jacksonville Jaguars)
John Brown, WR (29, Baltimore Ravens)
Chris Hogan, WR (30, New England Patriots)
Jermaine Kearse, WR (29, New York Jets)
Rishard Matthews, WR (29, Tennessee Titans)

Tight Ends (not much here either...):
Tyler Eifert, TE (28, Cincinnati Bengals)
Tyler Kroft, TE (26, Cincinnati Bengals)
Maxx Williams, TE (25, Baltimore Ravens)
Josh Hill, TE (29, New Orleans Saints)

Defensive Line:
Trey Flowers, DE (25, New England Patriots)
Demarcus Lawrence, DE (25, Dallas Cowboys) – Probably gets a mega-deal from Dallas, so unlikely but worth mentioning.
Ezekiel Ansah, DE (29, Detroit Lions) – Similar situation to Lawrence unless he has a bad year.
Brandon Graham, DE (31, Philadelphia Eagles)
Dante Fowler, DE (25, Jacksonville Jaguars)
Frank Clark, DE (26, Seattle Seahawks)
Allen Bailey, DL (30, Kansas City Chiefs)

Linebackers (don't expect a lot of these names to actually hit the market):
Jadaveon Clowney, EDGE (26, Houston Texans)
Anthony Barr, LB (27, Minnesota Vikings)
CJ Mosley, LB (27, Baltimore Ravens)
KJ Wright, LB (30, Seattle Seahawks)
Shaquil Barrett, LB/EDGE (26, Denver Broncos)
Shane Ray, LB/EDGE (26, Denver Broncos)
Deone Bucannon, LB (27, Arizona Cardinals)
Denzel Perryman, LB (25, LA Chargers)

Corners:
Bradley Roby, CB (27, Denver Broncos)
Jason Verrett, CB (28, LA Chargers) – injury concerns, but top corner when healthy
Darqueze Dennard, CB (27, Cincinnati Bengals)
Rashaan Melvin, CB (29, Indianapolis Colts)

A lot of good safeties on the market, but I think it's about the only position we don't need to look at outside of adding depth.


Overall assessment: We are currently projected to have $91,393,690 in cap space for 2019. It's very early obviously so I won't project too much in terms of what we'll end up with. That said, I'd expect us to go after at least two to three of the higher price point players at key positions. I'd like for us to target Ali Marpet to slot in at center or guard. One way or another we should look to free agency to replace Vontae Davis opposite of Tre' White, we need someone that can hold that side of the field consistently and hopefully find someone younger. With corner being a spot we can't afford to draft given some of the other talent available, I think a great option to throw some money at would be Bradley Roby, who deserves a starting role and #2 corner money. We will definitely have to overpay, but that's the nature of free agency and I know the talent is there (Ohio State fan!), I think Denver fans would agree. It's way to hard to project much else this early but a lot of big names of interest. Some will get tagged, but theres always a couple that hit the market. If guys like Clowney and Anthony Barr do find their way to the open market, however unlikely, I'd expect us to be in on them. We have the money to spend and I would hope we go after a couple of the top tier players.

Top 20 Big Board Prospects (via Matt Miller minus QBs):

1. Nick Bosa, EDGE, Ohio State
2. Ed Oliver, DL, Houston

3. Rashan Gary, EDGE, Michigan
4. Jonah Williams, OL, Alabama
5. Greedy Williams, CB, LSU
6. A.J. Brown, WR, Ole Miss
7. Devin White, LB, LSU
8. David Edwards, OT, Wisconsin
9. Greg Little, OT, Ole Miss

10. Raekwon Davis, DL, Alabama
11. Clelin Ferrell, EDGE, Clemson
12. Zach Allen, EDGE, Boston College
13. Derrick Brown, DL, Auburn
14. Dre'Mont Jones, DL, Ohio State
15. N'Keal Harry, WR, Arizona State
16. Deionte Thompson, S, Alabama
17. Kendall Sheffield, CB, Ohio State
18. Jeffery Simmons, DL, Mississippi State
19. Deandre Baker, CB, Georgia
20. Montez Sweat, EDGE, Mississippi State

WR / OL to watch beyond top 20:

WR: Anthony Johnson, Buffalo; Deebo Samuel, S. Carolina; Marquise Brown, Oklahoma; JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Stanford; Ahmmon Richards, Miami (Fl.); Bryan Edwards, S. Carolina; Juwan Johnson, Penn State; Stanley Morgan Jr., Nebraska; Kelvin Harmon, NC State

OT: Dalton Risner, Kansas State; Martez Ivey, Florida; Kaleb McGary, Washington; Mitch Hyatt, Clemson; Bobby Evans, Oklahoma; Trey Adams, Washington (major injury – out all year); Ross Pierschbacher, Alabama; Michael Dieter, Wisconsin; Beau Benzschawel, Wisconsin; Nate Herbig, Stanford; Isaiah Prince, Ohio State; Connor McGovern, Penn State

Overall assessment: I know OL is our biggest need, but this years DL class is one of the best ever. Coming away with Nick Bosa or Ed Oliver with our likely top 5 selection would be a huge get (who am I kidding, we're picking in the top 2). It's not like both positions on the DL couldn't use an upgrade. You can't go wrong with either guy, I think both will be superstars at their position. I think we all know where we have to go with the remainder of our selections. WR and OL are huge needs. A lot will change between now and the draft so I won't make an extensive draft list, rather a watch list of those two positions beyond the top 20. 

Please feel free to mention other names to add to any list here. I'll continue to add to this if it gets any attention.

I am also very happy to add another position group if you're looking for guys to keep an eye on. 

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Before even reading this I was debating on starting this up so I am glad I am not the only one. It seems much more  detailed then what I planned on getting in to but I will have a look.

UPDATE:

Ali Marpet, and Iupati are my top 2 guys I would like to see come to Buffalo. Minnesota traded for Brett Jones who is also a free agent after this year so they will likely pay one of those 2. Ideally I would like to see the bills go in to free agency and focus on spending on that oline. That is what the rams did and it has benefitted Goff in a big way. Counting on a young rookie olineman to step up right away has been more flops then pros so the risk taking an oline with top 5 pick is higher then other positions. Ideally Dawkins (LT), Ali (LG),  Easton (C), Unsure about RG, Daryl Williams (RT from Carolina). I know Williams had a season ending injury week 1 but he is still a top RT in this league and may not be that expensive because of it.

Only player I would have interest in re-signing from your list is Kbenji. Big target and could use that for allen. Alexander is 36-37 years old thats to much at this point if people liked him then turn him in to a coach not have him on the field. The rest can be let go.

Guys who I think will be looked at being cut or traded
Jerry Hughes clears 7.5 mil
Charles Clay clears 4.5 mil
Shady (maybe) clears 6.4 mil

On Defense Landing Demarcus Lawrence would be a big get for the bills especially if they end up drafting 1st and getting Nick Bosa to pair up with him. 
Bradley Roby I think would be good but would he fit the bills setup opposite to Tre?

 

In conclusion my top 5 offseason gets are:
Ali Marpet
Easton
Daryl Williams
Demarcus Lawrence
Bradley Robey 

Edited by soflbillsfan

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Nice write up @NickChowaniec

Not gonna lie, I'm on THAT level after week 1 myself. Assuming we get a top 3 pick right now in regard to the draft my crushes are Ed Oliver, Nick Bosa, OT Greg Little so far.

Free Agency wise we must add a WR and OL help obviously. Those along with pass rush are imo our biggest needs.

If there ever were "generational" NFL prospects, Ed Oliver is one. Probably best DT prospect since Ndamakong Suh 

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I too am at this point haha. I was going to do an early mock draft but this thread works too.

I am a big fan of AJ Cann to solve our RG spot and would absolutely love to sign Donvon Smith to a 4 or 5 year deal to lockdown the LT spot and allow Dawkins to move over to the right side. Then in two years if Dawkins is progressing we can lock him up long term or let him go and find a new RT rather than a LT. Matt Skura could be an underrated signing for our C spot too.

I would have no issues with spending our cap across the OL and getting Allen the protection he needs. I want no part of bringing Kelvin Benjamin back and I think Randall Cobb and one of the Jets WR's (Enuwa or Anderson) would make a nice trio with Jones moving forward. 

Go into the draft adding either Oliver or Bosa and grab another LB and CB early in the draft would be sweet. 

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I'm getting to watch Ed Oliver in person when Houston plays Navy, can't wait.

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I'm not on the anti Kelvin Benjamin level yet tho boys. I want to see a few games with Allen throwing down field. We can't expect consistency at WR until we develop consistency at QB

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I'll add all of your suggestions to the list of free agents to watch. 

13 hours ago, LeeEvans said:

I'm getting to watch Ed Oliver in person when Houston plays Navy, can't wait.

Lucky. Let us know how he looks. 

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56 minutes ago, NickChowaniec said:

I'll add all of your suggestions to the list of free agents to watch. 

Lucky. Let us know how he looks. 

I can only imagine hes going to destroy that tiny Navy line.

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9 minutes ago, indifference said:

0% chance Bills sign Donovan Smith or Ali Marpet next off season. 

And why is that a 0%? Bucs have little cap space and are going to have to decide to pay winston or not. If they reach the open market they are going to go to chase the money and bills can out pay the bucs. 

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4 minutes ago, soflbillsfan said:

And why is that a 0%? Bucs have little cap space and are going to have to decide to pay winston or not. If they reach the open market they are going to go to chase the money and bills can out pay the bucs. 

TB is at 8million now. Grimes is retiring next year. That will free up $10 million off the books. Bucs aren’t expecting Conte or Rogers back. And potential cuts could come into play. Marpet has been as close at it gets to pro bowl/all pro talent. My bet his contract gets done first. 

Don Smith is the more likely guy to be on the market out of the two. Reason being he hasn’t been as consistent as Marpet. Nevertheless, him and Ali are good friends. Combat the fact his play hasn’t warranted a fat contract the Bucs will be able to afford both. 

Bucs are under control for Winston contract for another two seasons. By then D Jack will probably be gone. Don’t see any cap problems retaining our pieces.

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1 minute ago, indifference said:

TB is at 8million now. Grimes is retiring next year. That will free up $10 million off the books. Bucs aren’t expecting Conte or Rogers back. And potential cuts could come into play. Marpet has been as close at it gets to pro bowl/all pro talent. My bet his contract gets done first. 

Don Smith is the more likely guy to be on the market out of the two. Reason being he hasn’t been as consistent as Marpet. Nevertheless, him and Ali are good friends. Combat the fact his play hasn’t warranted a fat contract the Bucs will be able to afford both. 

Bucs are under control for Winston contract for another two seasons. By then D Jack will probably be gone. Don’t see any cap problems retaining our pieces.

Tampa has 25 mil in cap space in 2019 with a possibility of 6 mil in roll over a maximum of 31 mil and 60 mil in cap space in 2020 but Winston needs a new contract at that time with his 5th year being 21 mil in 2019. With only 38 players on the roster set for 2019 , needing to fill 15 spots that 25 mil plus the draft picks that range around 6-10 mil based on position in the draft. You essentially are going to have around 21-25 mil at best next offseason before actual cutting players that would be currently on the roster.

Grimes signed a 1 year 8 mil contract this year that will have a dead cap hit of 7 million if cut this year, so not sure how that frees up 10 million next year since he will be a free agent.. 

Conte and Rodgers are both  free agents so that has zero impact on their salary cap as well other then another hole at  Safety and RB back up. 

The only true cuts that can take place are Djax as that clears up 6.5 mil and JPP 14 mil.

Im not saying it is not out of the realm they resign as it is possible but to say 0% chance of them leaving and going to another team is a stretch. As both will be expecting 10+ mil each a year and the team cant afford to pay their going rate for those guys as well as expecting to pay Winston with big contracts in McCoy and Evans already.

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1 hour ago, soflbillsfan said:

Tampa has 25 mil in cap space in 2019 with a possibility of 6 mil in roll over a maximum of 31 mil and 60 mil in cap space in 2020 but Winston needs a new contract at that time with his 5th year being 21 mil in 2019. With only 38 players on the roster set for 2019 , needing to fill 15 spots that 25 mil plus the draft picks that range around 6-10 mil based on position in the draft. You essentially are going to have around 21-25 mil at best next offseason before actual cutting players that would be currently on the roster.

Grimes signed a 1 year 8 mil contract this year that will have a dead cap hit of 7 million if cut this year, so not sure how that frees up 10 million next year since he will be a free agent.. 

Conte and Rodgers are both  free agents so that has zero impact on their salary cap as well other then another hole at  Safety and RB back up. 

The only true cuts that can take place are Djax as that clears up 6.5 mil and JPP 14 mil.

Im not saying it is not out of the realm they resign as it is possible but to say 0% chance of them leaving and going to another team is a stretch. As both will be expecting 10+ mil each a year and the team cant afford to pay their going rate for those guys as well as expecting to pay Winston with big contracts in McCoy and Evans already.

Bucs not letting their best OL go. I’m willing to put money on it. DM if interested because I’m not going back n forth. 

Conte and Rogers replacemnts are already on the roster with Whitehead/Wilson. btw

Edited by indifference

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You also have Kwon Alexander expected to resign a large extension soon. It's not impossible that you let one of Marpet or Donovan Smith go. Players are overpaid on the open free agent market, agents and the player know this, which is a factor in their decision. 

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31 minutes ago, indifference said:

Bucs not letting their best OL go. I’m willing to put money on it. DM if interested because I’m not going back n forth. 

Conte and Rogers replacemnts are already on the roster with Whitehead/Wilson. btw

Im not betting im just simply saying 0% is ridiculous. Letting and not having a choice are 2 different things. If one team is willing to pay him 12 million and they are only willing to pay him 10 mil a year hes going for that 12 mil unless the Franchise Tag is placed on them which the tag will likely be around 13.3 mil based off of top 5 average at Guard for Marpet. Ill leave the discussion like this only 2 ways of saying 0% and thats the tag or paying him mid season. If the start of free agency happens and neither are done its a 50%/50% shot he leaves. 

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