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Contract years, Cobb vs CMJ.


jleisher

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16 minutes ago, mikemike778 said:

Its only one game. Obviously if he plays like this for the rest of the year then you wave goodbye without any offer. If he plays better then I would offer him a one year cheap deal (5m would be pushing it though) as depth.

Cobb depends on a lot of things although I wouldn't be offering him a massive deal regardless. His arrow will be pointing downwards at this point and always have to be wary of how someone does in a contract year. 

There's a lot of stuff we have to address in the draft. People might not like it but OT is absolute number 1 priority. Rodgers can't take hits like he used to do that is clear - an OK line is no longer good enough it has to be elite. You get the O Line sorted first both starters and depth then sort out the rest of the team. OLB desperately needs some draft love. If we don't get lucky and hit on the rookie receivers then an early receiver is needed - you can't neglect offense every year and get away with it. So that's 3 players we might need in the first round so far   .......   Saints doing their bit so far though just need them to lose another 15 and we can trade away the 1 overall for loads of first round picks and all sorted.

 

Not gonna disagree, but if Spriggs had panned out the way he was projected, we would be much better off. We simply have to draft better across the board. The 2015 draft, for example, has officially become a complete bust.

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35 minutes ago, cannondale said:

Not gonna disagree, but if Spriggs had panned out the way he was projected, we would be much better off. We simply have to draft better across the board. The 2015 draft, for example, has officially become a complete bust.

Spriggs hasn't had the reps to call him a bust one way or another. You need to see him get a few consecutive games before you write him off. 

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1 minute ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Spriggs hasn't had the reps to call him a bust one way or another. You need to see him get a few consecutive games before you write him off. 

Bad wording on my part. I haven't written him off, but it's fair to say he looks behind schedule for a second round pick

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1 hour ago, mikemike778 said:

There's a lot of stuff we have to address in the draft. People might not like it but OT is absolute number 1 priority. Rodgers can't take hits like he used to do that is clear - an OK line is no longer good enough it has to be elite. You get the O Line sorted first both starters and depth then sort out the rest of the team. OLB desperately needs some draft love. If we don't get lucky and hit on the rookie receivers then an early receiver is needed - you can't neglect offense every year and get away with it. So that's 3 players we might need in the first round so far   .......   Saints doing their bit so far though just need them to lose another 15 and we can trade away the 1 overall for loads of first round picks and all sorted.

 

Draft priorities are not that clear at this time of the year. With what we know now, O line is not the no.1 priority (imo), that goes to OLB. Spriggs may yet make it easier to avoid spending a high pick at OT, but he needs to perform this year to stop that.

So why is OLB more important than protecting the franchise ? Well, the line as it stands now is pretty decent, both in terms of ability and experience. The backups could improve, and you might possibly want a better RG (it needs a few games to let that play out), but the starters are probably better than most, where it counts (in pass pro). I'm not advocating ignoring the OL in the 2019 draft, I just don't put that 'number one' emphasis on it. 

You also have to consider where the Packers will be at TE down the road. Jimmy Graham is probably on a 2 year deal (3yr deal is negotiated, but there is an out after two years with a $3.6m dead money hit). Kendricks and Lewis deals run out at the end of 2018 (Lewis is 34, Kendricks is 30). You COULD get away with not picking a TE early in 2019, but, assuming the value is there in the draft, it would be better to have a good prospect coming in from the 2019 draft, and have a year to improve, rather than waiting to 2020 and expecting a high draft pick to start and play well out of the box.

Then there is the Safety position. Clinton-Dix is in the last year of his contract and it is unclear if the Packers let him go, or pay up to keep him for several more years. This could go either way. Even if Kentrell Brice continues to play well, Josh jones hasn't done much so far. So, depending on how this season goes, Safety might be a priority.

OLB has been discussed so much, little more needs to be said. One, or even two high picks will be spent on a pass rusher, because the need is acute, and that need matches what should be a very good year for 3-4 OLBs (and not only a good year, but many of the prospects are in that desired 6'4"-6'5", 250+lb range.

One possibly under-rated position is WR. There is a ton of young potential, but no picks used in the top three rounds recently (except Adams). It is difficult to be a starter-level WR, and most guys that are, were first or second round picks. If the Packers don't see what they want out of all the young prospects they have, they might go for a higher pick there. This seems to me to be a more likely tactic for the 2020 draft (when they have had more time to evaluate all the rookies), but a 2019 WR taken high, is still possible if the value is there. If Cobb is released after 2018 however, then a starter-level slot receiver is much more likely.

So, here are what i think are some likely positions drafted early (as always, assuming value is there).
1 OLB, next three picks are three of these four S, OT, TE, WR.
or  double dip with OLB (2x1sts or 1x1st and 1x2nd) and fill in the other two spots with one of S, OT, TE, WR.

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4 hours ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

Draft priorities are not that clear at this time of the year. With what we know now, O line is not the no.1 priority (imo), that goes to OLB. Spriggs may yet make it easier to avoid spending a high pick at OT, but he needs to perform this year to stop that.

So why is OLB more important than protecting the franchise ? Well, the line as it stands now is pretty decent, both in terms of ability and experience. The backups could improve, and you might possibly want a better RG (it needs a few games to let that play out), but the starters are probably better than most, where it counts (in pass pro). I'm not advocating ignoring the OL in the 2019 draft, I just don't put that 'number one' emphasis on it. 

You also have to consider where the Packers will be at TE down the road. Jimmy Graham is probably on a 2 year deal (3yr deal is negotiated, but there is an out after two years with a $3.6m dead money hit). Kendricks and Lewis deals run out at the end of 2018 (Lewis is 34, Kendricks is 30). You COULD get away with not picking a TE early in 2019, but, assuming the value is there in the draft, it would be better to have a good prospect coming in from the 2019 draft, and have a year to improve, rather than waiting to 2020 and expecting a high draft pick to start and play well out of the box.

Then there is the Safety position. Clinton-Dix is in the last year of his contract and it is unclear if the Packers let him go, or pay up to keep him for several more years. This could go either way. Even if Kentrell Brice continues to play well, Josh jones hasn't done much so far. So, depending on how this season goes, Safety might be a priority.

OLB has been discussed so much, little more needs to be said. One, or even two high picks will be spent on a pass rusher, because the need is acute, and that need matches what should be a very good year for 3-4 OLBs (and not only a good year, but many of the prospects are in that desired 6'4"-6'5", 250+lb range.

One possibly under-rated position is WR. There is a ton of young potential, but no picks used in the top three rounds recently (except Adams). It is difficult to be a starter-level WR, and most guys that are, were first or second round picks. If the Packers don't see what they want out of all the young prospects they have, they might go for a higher pick there. This seems to me to be a more likely tactic for the 2020 draft (when they have had more time to evaluate all the rookies), but a 2019 WR taken high, is still possible if the value is there. If Cobb is released after 2018 however, then a starter-level slot receiver is much more likely.

So, here are what i think are some likely positions drafted early (as always, assuming value is there).
1 OLB, next three picks are three of these four S, OT, TE, WR.
or  double dip with OLB (2x1sts or 1x1st and 1x2nd) and fill in the other two spots with one of S, OT, TE, WR.

 

Of course, draft priorities aren't sorted yet - Spriggs could come in and be a stud for all we know. The thing is though

1. After giving Rodgers that contract, we live or die by how Rodgers plays

2. Rodgers simply can't take the hits any more. To be honest, whatever we do, I don't think he can last the contract physically, hoping he can get through the year on the pitch and can play through various knocks is going to be the way it is now. But you have to try. 

3. The Line is decent enough when everyone is heathy but Bulaga is the RT and its extremely naïve to go into a season expecting him to hold up. Some injuries you can't predict but if you keep relying on him and he goes down for the year and the backup gets Rodgers killed (metaphorically) then you get what you deserve.

As things stand, sorting out the O Line is absolute number one priority. It doesn't have to be via draft, it needs to be whatever it needs to be. Personally I would be hoping to take a OT first round and go back to the drafting mid round guards. Whilst Guard isn't a premium position, the fact is our Guards are much weaker than in the past. Combine that with a problem at RT and you are protecting your injury prone franchise QB with a line held together by not very much.

This isn't to deny the problems at OLB by the way. I would in an ideal world be hoping to draft someone in the first round and sign a Free Agent. As a minimum. Receiver is anyone's guess. If the rookies don't pan out then that is a priority as well. But we could end up with loads of them who need more game time so who knows.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Through 5 games, Cobb has 17 receptions for 194 yards (11.4 ypc) with a long of 75. He has also missed the last 2 games with a hamstring injury. Randall's 2018 cap # is $12.7M.

Matthews has 12 combined tackles (7 solo) and .5 sacks (should be 13 and 1.5). Clay counts $11.3M against the 2018 cap.

Got to think Gute will want more production out of that (combined) $24M in 2019.

Unless Randall accepts a really steep pay cut, I don't see him in GB next year.

Unless Clay plays a whole lot better over the remaining 11 games of this season, I doubt GB will want him back in GB next season.

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On 9/16/2018 at 12:00 PM, OneTwoSixFive said:

Draft priorities are not that clear at this time of the year. With what we know now, O line is not the no.1 priority (imo), that goes to OLB. Spriggs may yet make it easier to avoid spending a high pick at OT, but he needs to perform this year to stop that.

So why is OLB more important than protecting the franchise ? Well, the line as it stands now is pretty decent, both in terms of ability and experience. The backups could improve, and you might possibly want a better RG (it needs a few games to let that play out), but the starters are probably better than most, where it counts (in pass pro). I'm not advocating ignoring the OL in the 2019 draft, I just don't put that 'number one' emphasis on it. 

You also have to consider where the Packers will be at TE down the road. Jimmy Graham is probably on a 2 year deal (3yr deal is negotiated, but there is an out after two years with a $3.6m dead money hit). Kendricks and Lewis deals run out at the end of 2018 (Lewis is 34, Kendricks is 30). You COULD get away with not picking a TE early in 2019, but, assuming the value is there in the draft, it would be better to have a good prospect coming in from the 2019 draft, and have a year to improve, rather than waiting to 2020 and expecting a high draft pick to start and play well out of the box.

Then there is the Safety position. Clinton-Dix is in the last year of his contract and it is unclear if the Packers let him go, or pay up to keep him for several more years. This could go either way. Even if Kentrell Brice continues to play well, Josh jones hasn't done much so far. So, depending on how this season goes, Safety might be a priority.

OLB has been discussed so much, little more needs to be said. One, or even two high picks will be spent on a pass rusher, because the need is acute, and that need matches what should be a very good year for 3-4 OLBs (and not only a good year, but many of the prospects are in that desired 6'4"-6'5", 250+lb range.

One possibly under-rated position is WR. There is a ton of young potential, but no picks used in the top three rounds recently (except Adams). It is difficult to be a starter-level WR, and most guys that are, were first or second round picks. If the Packers don't see what they want out of all the young prospects they have, they might go for a higher pick there. This seems to me to be a more likely tactic for the 2020 draft (when they have had more time to evaluate all the rookies), but a 2019 WR taken high, is still possible if the value is there. If Cobb is released after 2018 however, then a starter-level slot receiver is much more likely.

So, here are what i think are some likely positions drafted early (as always, assuming value is there).
1 OLB, next three picks are three of these four S, OT, TE, WR.
or  double dip with OLB (2x1sts or 1x1st and 1x2nd) and fill in the other two spots with one of S, OT, TE, WR.

This is why I'd like to see Kumerow activated asap. We need to know what we have there. Must know if Kumerow can be the #3 or #4 guy for the next 4 or 5 years.

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45 minutes ago, Mr. Fussnputz said:

This is why I'd like to see Kumerow activated asap. We need to know what we have there. Must know if Kumerow can be the #3 or #4 guy for the next 4 or 5 years.

This will be interesting. I'm still not sure whether the Kumerow will ever see the field this year. I think we hid him on IR 

Who are you gonna cut to activate him ?

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38 minutes ago, cannondale said:

This will be interesting. I'm still not sure whether the Kumerow will ever see the field this year. I think we hid him on IR. Who are you gonna cut to activate him ?

I know this wont be popular, but I wouldnt mind having Davis back.
Our punt & kick return game has been non existent since he's been parked on IR.

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1 hour ago, cannondale said:

This will be interesting. I'm still not sure whether the Kumerow will ever see the field this year. I think we hid him on IR 

Who are you gonna cut to activate him ?

Light. Or Moore. Neither one would be claimed and would go to the PS, IMHO.

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1 hour ago, cannondale said:

This will be interesting. I'm still not sure whether the Kumerow will ever see the field this year. I think we hid him on IR 

Who are you gonna cut to activate him ?

Kumerow seems like Allison mk2 to me. He is a bit fatter though (duh, i meant faster). I think either is ideally (from the Packers point of view) a high quality backup, or a slightly below average starter. If Cobb is kept after this year, and/or one of Kumerow/Allison/ESB play the slot fairly well, they are in good shape. If Moore or MVS (especially MVS with the size and speed he has), can be starter-quality on the outside, they are golden.

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Clay is an ILB next year or not on this team.  He wasn't done last year, but he is this year as a pass rusher.  Frustrating because I think he could be a pro bowl player THIS YEAR for us if he played ILB, but necessity dictates he has to play EDGE. 

Our defense would be so damn good right now with Fowler Jr or Golden and Matthews/Martinez as our ILBs.

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16 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

Clay is an ILB next year or not on this team.  He wasn't done last year, but he is this year as a pass rusher.  Frustrating because I think he could be a pro bowl player THIS YEAR for us if he played ILB, but necessity dictates he has to play EDGE. 

Our defense would be so damn good right now with Fowler Jr or Golden and Matthews/Martinez as our ILBs.

We have Morrison + Burks which is pretty much Matthews, then add in Jones who pretty much needs the change to dime LB and there's no need to pay for an ILB.

I'm done with Cobb, I'm done with Clay, time to get younger and better.

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8 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

We have Morrison + Burks which is pretty much Matthews, then add in Jones who pretty much needs the change to dime LB and there's no need to pay for an ILB.

I'm done with Cobb, I'm done with Clay, time to get younger and better.

Eh, there's always a spot on my team for veteran players who have played their whole career with me if I'm running things.  Money has to be right, and Clay has to understand he's not what he was, but if he's willing to jump into the role of doing what's needed out of him, I'm re-signing him. 

We dislike him now because he can't do what we want him to do in the role he has to do, and that's not fair on him.  He can still play. 

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