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11sanchez11

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I don't like the way the Bucs passing offense wasย personnel-wise. You have an interception-prone quarterback (or pair of quarterbacks), a jump-ball specialist, and a deep-ball-only receiver (who is likely gone) as your featured pieces. That's a great way to throw aย lotย of interceptions (Evans and DJax were by my count the targets of 14 interceptions this season).

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10 minutes ago, AlNFL19 said:

I don't like the way the Bucs passing offense wasย personnel-wise. You have an interception-prone quarterback (or pair of quarterbacks), a jump-ball specialist, and a deep-ball-only receiver (who is likely gone) as your featured pieces. That's a great way to throw aย lotย of interceptions (Evans and DJax were by my count the targets of 14 interceptions this season).

Pretty sure Evans and Jackson do more than jump high, and run fast. Winston has been the problem. And Fitzpatrick was Fitzpatrick before he was in Tampa. He's also a problem. Not Evans, Jackson, Howard, Brate, or Godwin. Most teams would love to have those targets to throw to.

Edited by PapaShogun
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37 minutes ago, PapaShogun said:

Pretty sure Evans and Jackson do more than jump high, and run fast. Winston has been the problem. And Fitzpatrick was Fitzpatrick before he was in Tampa. He's also a problem. Not Evans, Jackson, Howard, Brate, or Godwin. Most teams would love to have those targets to throw to.

I understand that. What I'm saying is that when you have a quarterback as bad as Winston, giving him guys who are best at making plays that tend to be not exactly interception-averse as his top options isn't helping.ย 

  • Evans has never specialized at getting a ton of separation. His NFL.com scouting report said he "cannot separate vertically" and that he would have problems in this area. His average separation distance was 2.1 yards this year - that isn't terrible but it's only good for 120th.ย However,ย Evansย isย good at making plays on jump-balls without much separation. This isn't his only ability, but it's a significant one that he specializes in - and it just so happens that these throws are easier to intercept.
  • DeSean Jackson's average depth of target was 18.9 yards - that ranked 4th among wideouts with 20+ targets this season. He was utilized mostly as a deep-ball receiver. Longer throws like that are easier to intercept.ย 

I am well aware that Winston is the problem. Evans and Jackson are good at lots of things, but what they areย best atย are making catches on plays that tend to be intercepted more often. When you give an already interception-prone quarterback options that to take full advantage of he'll probably have to make these kinds of throws, you'll get even more interceptions.ย 

Evans and Jackson are good receivers, but they come with the inherent risk of throwing more interceptions because of the things they're best at. If that weren't true, they wouldn't have been targeted on 54% of Tampa's interceptions and combined for an interception rate of 6.6% (Tampa's total rate was 4.2%).

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According to my wins above replacement / average model this year, some regular season stats:

Statistic Todd Gurley II C.J. Anderson
Rushing WAR 2.90 0.57
WAR / Game 0.21 0.29
WAR / Carry 0.011 0.013

Statistic S. Barkley Rest of Team
Rushing WAR 1.81 -0.21
WAR / Carry 0.007 -0.002

And some data from Football Outsiders, but first some context: "A team with a high ranking in Adjusted Line Yards but a low ranking in Open Field Yards is heavily dependent on its offensive line to make the running game work. A team with a low ranking in Adjusted Line Yards but a high ranking in Open Field Yards is heavily dependent on its running back breaking long runs to make the running game work."

Rank LAR NYG
Adj. Line Yds 1st 29th
Open Field Yds 16th 1st

ยฏ\_(ใƒ„)_/ยฏ Make of this what you will.ย 

ย 

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14 hours ago, AlNFL19 said:

Evans and Jackson are good receivers, but they come with the inherent risk of throwing more interceptions because of the things they're best at. If that weren't true, they wouldn't have been targeted on 54% of Tampa's interceptions and combined for an interception rate of 6.6% (Tampa's total rate was 4.2%).

Or maybe Winston's ball placement isn't very good. I don't think Mahomes, Brady, Brees, or any of the other top guys would start throwing significantly more interceptions with receivers that for whatever shortcomings they may have, are negligible to what they do well in comparison to average receivers. If anything, they would be better overall. Evans himself was 4th in DYAR this past year. Winston isn't a franchise guy if he needs this excuse for even part of his lackluster performance.ย 

Edited by PapaShogun
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10 minutes ago, PapaShogun said:

Or maybe Winston's ball placement isn't very good. I don't think Mahomes, Brady, Brees, or any of the other top guys would start throwing significantly more interceptions with receivers that for whatever shortcomings they may have, are negligible to what they do well in comparison to average receivers. If anything, they would be better overall. Evans himself was 4th in DYAR this past year. Winston isn't a franchise guy if he needs this excuse for even part of his lackluster performance.ย 

He is absolutely not a franchise quarterback. All Iโ€™m trying to say here is that if Evans and Jackson werenโ€™t very good at making plays on these types of throws, the interception rate and total targeting them should not be that much higher than the rest of the team, especially with a good number of targets between them.ย 

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INT rate is naturally going to be a bit higher on receivers who are playing downfield than the receivers mostly taking underneath passes or only getting targeted if they're completely wide open.ย  Not to mention RB passes are usually pretty safe and count for a fair deal of attempts generally.

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29 minutes ago, Bobikus said:

INT rate is naturally going to be a bit higher on receivers who are playing downfield than the receivers mostly taking underneath passes or only getting targeted if they're completely wide open.ย  Not to mention RB passes are usually pretty safe and count for a fair deal of attempts generally.

That's the point.

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18 hours ago, AlNFL19 said:

He is absolutely not a franchise quarterback. All Iโ€™m trying to say here is that if Evans and Jackson werenโ€™t very good at making plays on these types of throws, the interception rate and total targeting them should not be that much higher than the rest of the team, especially with a good number of targets between them.ย 

Have you looked at target% for those two for Winston vs. Fitzpatrick? Fitz's ANY/A was 3rd in the league and much higher than Winston at 18th. I'm curious if that difference was more a factor of a difference in target% to Evans+Jackson (if there was one) or a factor of Winston just throwing more interceptable balls.

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Are there any examples of players who had Hall of Fame-worthy careers with two different teams?ย  I was trying to think if some exist because of the probableย AB trade and wondering if he could do it considering his play-style and only being 30.

Reggie White was the only one I could think of off the top of my head.

Eagles (120 Games): 124 sacks, 18 FFs, 2 INTs, 7x Pro Bowler (6x First-Team All-Pro), 4 Postseason Sacks

Packers (95 Games): 68.5 Sacks, 14 FFs, 1 INT, 6x Pro Bowler (2x First-Team All-Pro), 8 Postseason Sacks, including 3 sacks in a Super Bowl win

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