Nick_gb Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 On 10/19/2018 at 4:15 PM, Outpost31 said: Yeah, and zero Super Bowls, and an abundance of poorly-run teams. You really want to add Barr? Also, don't just point out the good ones. If you're going to extend it to 2013 and 2014, show the bad ones, too. Also mention who was taken after them and tell me if you'd do the same thing again. Only one on that list who was acceptable considering who else was available at more premium positions off the top of my head was Hopkins, and I think he was taken 24th. Wait, don't you just include the good Premium position players taken? I've never seen you include a bad premium player taken after a non-premium player to prove your point? Why would anyone else show the bad instead of the good to prove theirs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nick_gb Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 On 10/19/2018 at 4:58 PM, Norm said: And gruden would do it so he can get some 35 year old guy. He's gonna bring TJ Houshyamama out of retirement. 35 is too young now for Gruden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 Just now, Nick_gb said: Wait, don't you just include the good Premium position players taken? I've never seen you include a bad premium player taken after a non-premium player to prove your point? Why would anyone else show the bad instead of the good to prove theirs? I actually never made a list of premium positions drafted. All I've done is show literally every non-premium position drafted in the past four drafts. They should show the bad because I showed every single one. If I had shown a list of only the good premium positions picked, I'd be presenting an unfair argument. If I showed only the bad non-premium positions, I'd be presenting a bad and unfair argument. I did neither of those things. Therefore, to cherry pick from past years is presenting an unfair argument. He asked me, "What about Beckham?" Unfair argument. Why? Because Donald was taken immediately after him, and it was cherry-picking the best WR taken in that draft. It neglected Watkins and Benjamin. So in the best draft probably in 20 years for receivers (Evans/Beckham), there were two hard busts. In that same year, Clowney, Mack and Ford were pass rushers. 0 percent bust rate for pass rushers, 50% for receivers. This is why it's important to present the entire class. That same exact draft had Barr, Shazier, Mosely and Marcus Smith drafted at ILB. Again, 50% bust rate. Barr has regressed every single year of his career. Looked like a damn animal first year, downward progression and now he's completely meh. If he had just asked, "What about Shazier and Mosely..." So to answer your question, I'm asking for the complete list because it's the only fair way to analyze a draft. I provided the complete list of non-premium players over the past 4 years, and every one of them looks bad. Every one. To take out this year for the sake of giving careers a chance to develop, here are your non-premium positions (ALL OF THEM) over the past 3 years: Does any one of the following players seem like a good investment of a premium draft pick? Shaq Thompson, Stephone Anthony, Darron Lee, Reddick, Jarrad Davis, Reuben Foster, Cam Erving, Joshua Garnett, Perriman, Dorset, Cooper, White, Parker, Agholor, Coleman, Fuller, Doctson, Treadwell, Ross, Corey Davis, Mike Williams, Howard, Engram, Njoku. If yes, who? If no, isn't it odd that for three straight years, 24 picks provided little for the future of their team? 24 picks and not one of them is especially impactful. Does that not REMOTELY tell you that: A. Non-premium positions provide non-premium return B. Maybe the NFL is changing even more to prove that these positions aren't all that valuable? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 Tomorrow I'll have more time and I'll go through complete drafts with a bust rate for every position. Even though this isn't really about that. Bust/not bust... It doesn't matter. What matters is that bust or hit, premium positions are better. Obviously you'd rather have a hit WR/TE/ILB/IOL over a bust EDGE/OT/QB/DL/CB/ but the unpredictability of the draft suggests that, since every pick is a non-guarantee, you go with the non-guarantee that can do more for your team and provide more value. This is especially true considering what a bust at a premium position can do for you. If a WR busts, you really can't try them at TE or anything. Any value they have on special teams, CB provides more. If a TE busts, you ain't got jack ****. If an ILB busts, you can't try them on the EDGE because they'd be an EDGE if they could. If a guard or center busts, they aren't suddenly better at a tougher position (tackle). Even the worst EDGE busts can provide depth, and third string EDGE is on the field more than any other backup position in football. A busted OT usually, almost always, becomes at worst a serviceable IOL. Again, rotational DL are important in this league. Etc. Yeah, a QB provides no value whatsoever in a bust situation, but they're the most premium position there is, so there's that. So you take a Schrodinger Cat and change the alive/dead thing to hit/bust, having a pass rusher/CB/S/OT/QB is always more valuable than a WR/TE/IOL/ILB. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Golfman Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 (edited) On 9/24/2018 at 2:43 PM, jleisher said: I am thinking, Gute does the same as he did with the back to back CB at Edge. Thinking Sweat, Allen or Winovich look good to me. Then the best WI OLine prospect available in rd #2. Winowich is no better than late second round talent. I do like the idea of going EDGE with both first round picks and am OK with o-line in round 2. If we could get a TE in round 3 and a safety via free agency I'd be very happy. Especially if Wilkerson comes back cheap on another 1 year deal. This would set the table nicely for the new HC. Edited October 21, 2018 by Golfman 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 This Oshane Ximines kid out of Old Dominion is pretty good. Unusual you find a small school guy that has good hand usage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegas492 Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 22 hours ago, Outpost31 said: I actually never made a list of premium positions drafted. All I've done is show literally every non-premium position drafted in the past four drafts. They should show the bad because I showed every single one. If I had shown a list of only the good premium positions picked, I'd be presenting an unfair argument. If I showed only the bad non-premium positions, I'd be presenting a bad and unfair argument. I did neither of those things. Therefore, to cherry pick from past years is presenting an unfair argument. He asked me, "What about Beckham?" Unfair argument. Why? Because Donald was taken immediately after him, and it was cherry-picking the best WR taken in that draft. It neglected Watkins and Benjamin. So in the best draft probably in 20 years for receivers (Evans/Beckham), there were two hard busts. In that same year, Clowney, Mack and Ford were pass rushers. 0 percent bust rate for pass rushers, 50% for receivers. This is why it's important to present the entire class. That same exact draft had Barr, Shazier, Mosely and Marcus Smith drafted at ILB. Again, 50% bust rate. Barr has regressed every single year of his career. Looked like a damn animal first year, downward progression and now he's completely meh. If he had just asked, "What about Shazier and Mosely..." So to answer your question, I'm asking for the complete list because it's the only fair way to analyze a draft. I provided the complete list of non-premium players over the past 4 years, and every one of them looks bad. Every one. To take out this year for the sake of giving careers a chance to develop, here are your non-premium positions (ALL OF THEM) over the past 3 years: Does any one of the following players seem like a good investment of a premium draft pick? Shaq Thompson, Stephone Anthony, Darron Lee, Reddick, Jarrad Davis, Reuben Foster, Cam Erving, Joshua Garnett, Perriman, Dorset, Cooper, White, Parker, Agholor, Coleman, Fuller, Doctson, Treadwell, Ross, Corey Davis, Mike Williams, Howard, Engram, Njoku. If yes, who? If no, isn't it odd that for three straight years, 24 picks provided little for the future of their team? 24 picks and not one of them is especially impactful. Does that not REMOTELY tell you that: A. Non-premium positions provide non-premium return B. Maybe the NFL is changing even more to prove that these positions aren't all that valuable? First off, I agree with you and thank you for the time you've spent putting the list and your thoughts down here to read. I'm trying to play Devil's Advocate with your list above...humor me. I'll cherry pick Doctson, Davis and Njoku. Those are easy ones. Given the broad scope of systems and schemes, I think these three would have excelled in the Green and Gold. Doctson has been an injury bust so far, but when he's a free agent, I'd love to kick those tires...if healthy. I had a man crush on Davis, still do. He went where receivers go to kill their careers. He would flourish under a real system with a good quarterback. Njoku...putting up decent numbers despite being in Cleveland. He would rock it out here. Conversely...any of those defenders would stink here because our defense has been just bad for a long time. Shaw wouldn't have a position to play. I dug Anthony, but he's a bust. I think Lee would be delightfully average in GB. Reddick...well...I liked him. I think he's miscast in the desert. He might have done okay here, but not a true first round hit. Davis/Foster, you made that ILB point with Martinez versus all those guys. Cam Erving...nope. Garnett...I'd argue he'd be starting right now and fine, but not what you want in the first. Perriman was going to bust wherever he went. Dorset...I don't get him. I like him as a receiver, but no quarterbacks do. Called White a bust right away. I think Parker would be good in GB.... Agholor, meh. I'm shocked that Coleman isn't on a roster, must not be able to comprehend a scheme. Fuller is a nice player...but I see only a vertical threat. We don't use our WR's that way. Treadwell was a bust, called that one right away. Ross...still shocked he isn't producing. He ran too good of routes to be this bad...maybe he'd have a chance here. Mike Williams....nope. Engram...I don't like small tight ends. So really, I agree with you, except on a couple guys who I think would have hit nicely with our scheme...and even then, I can take Doctson off due to injuries and that leaves me with a man crush Davis and a nice looking tight end. Not a compelling list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kepler Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 Edge, edge, OL. This is how the first three picks must unfold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FinneasGage Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 Imagine when we have Josh Allen & Brian Burns coming off the edge holy **** 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 Just now, FinneasGage said: Imagine when we have Josh Allen & Brian Burns coming off the edge holy **** With Nick Perry and Clay Matthews as 3rd/4th and Matthews playing ILB. Superb Owl. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 16 minutes ago, Kepler said: Edge, edge, OL. This is how the first three picks must unfold You're going to be upset if we draft a safety? Who are you looking to replace on this line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jleisher Posted October 22, 2018 Author Share Posted October 22, 2018 16 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said: You're going to be upset if we draft a safety? Who are you looking to replace on this line? You have to start thinking about Bulaga's replacement. Drafting either a G, move McCray to T, or draft someone to that played LT in college and groom him for RT. I agree with the statement about WI Oline. They seem to develop solid Oline players. Some quality depth players if possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PACKRULE Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 20 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said: You're going to be upset if we draft a safety? Who are you looking to replace on this line? I could see one of those first round picks turning into a 2nd and 3rd. We aren't in a bad position to get an extra value pick so we can rebuild differently. TT did that much in his early tenure and it really played out nicely. Gutes draft last year really couldn't have worked out any better. I could see a BPA for Edge or a rare pass rushing DT at that spot. Drop and take Edge and OT in round 2 or S and so on. Should be sitting good at the bottom or round one with a QB unhappy team looking to jump back in for a last minute first round falling QB. Should be a few teams. even if we stay where we are we should be good if we hit. Need an upgrade on the DL as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Howler Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 I'd like to get someone like Sweat and then a receiver from the first 3 picks. Given that WRs are the focal point of this offensive system, we need to upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arthur Penske Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 (edited) 55 minutes ago, Kepler said: Edge, edge, OL. This is how the first three picks must unfold I hope like hell EDGE talent is available for us, but you can't peg picks there. There's no way to tell if: A. The board falls that way ( if you had to trade up for an EDGE, you'd likely not have all those top picks) B. How free agency goes. Secondly, I'd see TE, safety, and maaaybe DL as in as much need as Oline and possibilities as a top selection. Edited October 22, 2018 by Arthur Penske 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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