2019 Draft Discussion

[MacReady]

I'm sorry, but if the talent matches the picks, I'm double dipping at EDGE in the first.  Two shots at a hit, and if both hit we're in commanding position for the next five years.

If we go EDGE/OT and one hits, the other busts, we really aren't in any better position than we are in now.

We can't afford to miss on a pass rusher in this draft.

I would ACCEPT tackle, DB, DL or maybe even RB with one of our first picks, but I would still be slightly bummed if they're not both EDGE.  

[Leader]

48 minutes ago, cannondale said:

Bulaga was asked to take a pay cut and he hasn't heard from the Packers regarding a new contract. What does that tell you ?

That they thought he was overpaid given the number of games he's missed to injury?
That they were looking to scare up some CAP space to potentially make a move on another player?

He's not a UFA until 2020.
His dead cap goes down considerably next year - so if we're thinking of moving on from him outright, that would be the time - but honestly I dont think the FO is displeased with his efforts on the field and it seems fairly certain we dont have his replacement (or level of play replacement.....) on the roster right now. Will a 2019 draft selection move right in at RT?
Cant say.

[Scoremore]

6 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

I'm sorry, but if the talent matches the picks, I'm double dipping at EDGE in the first.  Two shots at a hit, and if both hit we're in commanding position for the next five years.

If we go EDGE/OT and one hits, the other busts, we really aren't in any better position than we are in now.

We can't afford to miss on a pass rusher in this draft.

I would ACCEPT tackle, DB, DL or maybe even RB with one of our first picks, but I would still be slightly bummed if they're not both EDGE.  

I am hoping we sign an Edge in FA to lessen the need come draft time.  Want to see DT and OLB with the 2 first round picks.  In order of BPA of course.  Seem the strength of the draft is at DT in the 1st round.  Would use the opportunity to pluck one if possible.  

[cannondale]

1 hour ago, Leader said:

That they thought he was overpaid given the number of games he's missed to injury?
That they were looking to scare up some CAP space to potentially make a move on another player?

He's not a UFA until 2020.
His dead cap goes down considerably next year - so if we're thinking of moving on from him outright, that would be the time - but honestly I dont think the FO is displeased with his efforts on the field and it seems fairly certain we dont have his replacement (or level of play replacement.....) on the roster right now. Will a 2019 draft selection move right in at RT?
Cant say.

No reason was given. According to Nagler, Bulaga was asked and he said no. If I had to guess, it would be a combination of injuries, money, and the third contract thing the Packers are reluctant to give. Personally, I'd keep him for another year, but maybe the Packers know something about his back (or something else) that we don't. Either way, I consider OT a huge priority

Edited October 27, 2018 by cannondale

[Leader]

2 hours ago, cannondale said:

Either way, I consider OT a huge priority

I agree - but unless Bulaga's 2019 salary falls far outside the going rate - I'm glad we've got him on the dotted line cause replacing his level of play - while possible - will take some good drafting. Till he proves himself on the field, I dont trust Spriggs can get it done. 

[mikemike778]

18 hours ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

 

Honestly I would be fine with a balanced draft but people are asking for yet another pure defence draft. I'm fine with a balanced draft that is genuinely balanced (taking defence in picks 1,1,2,3 and then offense 4,5,6,7 is not remotely balanced - if two of the four early picks including one of the first rounders is on offense then that's balanced).

Re Packers preferring defence. I'm fine with in the grand scheme of things putting more draft picks into defence. However in recent years virtually all top picks have gone into defence. The roster is horribly unbalanced - young talent on defence, regressing vets or projects on offense.

Re Rodgers - the NFL is a young man's game. Rodgers has bust his collar-bone twice, has had calf injuries, knee injuries and virtually every game seems to be getting up in distress - after every sack pretty much everyone is holding their breath hoping he will get up OK. He is mid 30s now so as times goes on, will be more susceptible to injuries - there will be more niggles and a higher chance of serious injury with every passing week. I don't care about Ryan and other QBs - that's for their team to worry about. I care about the fact that a team our hopes depend on is consistently picking up injuries both minor and major and its going to get worse. Getting him protected is priority 1.

[mikemike778]

14 hours ago, Leader said:

That they thought he was overpaid given the number of games he's missed to injury?
That they were looking to scare up some CAP space to potentially make a move on another player?

He's not a UFA until 2020.
His dead cap goes down considerably next year - so if we're thinking of moving on from him outright, that would be the time - but honestly I dont think the FO is displeased with his efforts on the field and it seems fairly certain we dont have his replacement (or level of play replacement.....) on the roster right now. Will a 2019 draft selection move right in at RT?
Cant say.

With Bulaga's injury record, he surely can't be considered for a third contract. I would want him on the roster next year as insurance but we need his replacement. Unless they are extremely confident in Spriggs then if the right player was available in the right spot I would go 

1. 1. OLB
2. 1. OT
3. 2. SF (assuming Ha Ha leaves)
4. 3. TE  (or WR if the rookies don't look legit)
5. 4. OG
6. 5. OLB
7. 6/7 - whatever

I'd be looking to sign a vet OLB in free agency. Leaving us with Vet, Perry, R1, Fackrell, Gilbert, R5

[CWood21]

On 10/23/2018 at 2:31 PM, {Family Ghost} said:

He's battling thru what he can, but this year it's been knee, shoulder, and back.  Just a matter of time before he's on the shelf for an extended period of time.

It's not toughness that I worry about.  He's only played in 16 games twice since he entered the league, his rookie season in 2010 and 2016.  He missed the entire 2013 season recovering from a torn ACL.  Going back to his rookie year, he's averaged less than 11 games played per season.  He's under contract for one more year at $8.4M, and he's a poor candidate to re-sign for that third contract.  The Packers need to start thinking about the future after Bulaga.

[CWood21]

On 10/27/2018 at 5:30 AM, mikemike778 said:

We invested three late round picks at receiver which equate to around a mid 3rd round pick. We have to see how the rookies get on (its way too early to appoint MVS as the answer) but lets not pretend there has been significant investment in the position. There hasn't - in the last few areas virtually every defensive position has had significantly more draft investment than WR.

For me, I would want to see at least 2 of the young guys look legit come the end of the season. If they do then fine and I would be looking more at TE. If not then WR should be in the mix for an early pick.

That's not really how it works though.  Right now, you could make an argument that MVS has been top 5 among rookie WRs, but easily top 10.  He's going to get better with more reps.  And we're talking about a position that Rodgers hasn't historically trusted as rookies.  He's on pace to be as productive as some of our best rookie WRs have been under McCarthy and Rodgers.  He's a hit at this point, and he'd have to completely change course in order for that to change.

MVS: 32 receptions, 587 receiving yards, 4.6 TD
James Jones: 47 receptions, 676 receiving yards, 2 TD
Greg Jennings: 45 receptions, 632 receiving yards, 3 TD (14 games)
Jordy Nelson: 33 receptions, 366 receiving yards, 2 TD

That's MVS' rookie year projected over 16 games.  He's as productive, if not more, than all but Greg Jennings.  The future is bright.  Now, the biggest question is will he take that next step?  ESB has looked good in limited reps, but he's not nearly a big enough sample size to make any strong feelings one way or the other.

[CWood21]

On 10/27/2018 at 5:42 AM, mikemike778 said:

For me, the priority this off-season is a re-tool of the Offensive Line. Its fairly straight forward:

1. We have invested a huge amount of money in Rodgers and if he goes down, we go down
2. Its pretty clear Rodgers can no longer absorb hits.
3. Bulaga is decent but it is naïve in the extreme to expect him to last the season.
4. The Guards are fine but JAG-y and the depth looks weak
5. You can scheme around positional weaknesses in defence (for example if your OLBs are crap then you can get pass rush elsewhere) but if people are getting to Rodgers then in reality we are done for. We can invest another 20 early picks on defence but its not going to help if Kizer is behind centre.

Now sure are starters are OK and Bulaga 'might' get through the season so maybe you can get by without addressing it. But if Bulaga goes down and it results in Rodgers going down for the season or even worse the slow death of a 6 week injury then nobody should feel sorry for themselves because sometimes you get what you deserve.

I think with Rodgers people get complacent that we will always have a top offense. But the reality is most of our players are old and regressing or limited talent and a regressing Rodgers isn't going to be able to do it all by himself. We need some decent draft investment in the offense. The defence has had shed loads of draft investment, its time for it to be relied on instead of continuing to throw every high draft pick at defence and assume offense  will be fine because of 12.

Priority?  No.  Look to upgrade or build up depth?  Absolutely.  Bakh is a top 3 LT in the NFL, and he's locked up for an additional 2 years after this season.  He's going nowhere.  Lane Taylor and Corey Linsley have 2 years remaining on their deals, and both likely aren't going anywhere.  They could look to add depth at this position, but neither one of them are going anywhere next year.  The RG position seems unsettled.  We've seen good and bad from both Justin McCray and Byron Bell.  Using the Rams game as a benchmark seems to be a waste of time.  There isn't a team in the league that sports a DT tandem like Ndamukong Suh and Aaron Donald.  We've discussed Bryan Bulaga already, but we're looking for his eventual replacement.  Not his immediate replacement.

TL;DR we're looking to improve depth upon the OL and possibly looking to upgrade the RG spot.

[CWood21]

On 10/27/2018 at 12:58 PM, ThatJerkDave said:

How many OL picks do you guys want? Are we giving up on Patrick, Light, McCray, and Pankey?  The TT/MM combo did pretty well at guard, TT is not calling the shots, but he is still in the room.  Trust the process, it has been a long time since the Packers have fielded a really bad offensive line. 

I'd throw 2 to 3 picks at the position if the board shook out well.  I'd grab an OL in the first round, and then grab a couple of IOL in the middle rounds.  But that's assuming it shook out well.  Not expecting it to.

[Arthur Penske]

Its very early and a lot can happen in between now and the draft, but how big would  "hitting" (at least somewhat) on Jaire, MVS, Jackson, Graham, and maybe EQ and Moore be for 2019? If those guys wouldn't have been looking to pan out the amount of positions Gutey would have needed to address would have been bad with Cobb, Matthews, ect possibly leaving this offseason. Obviously, EDGE and some other positions still need to be addressed via free agency/draft, but the packers are going to have some freedom to do interesting things in the draft/FA this offeason. 

Toss in the potential of Burks and Madison (maaaaaaybe) and I'm encouraged for the future.

[CWood21]

On 10/27/2018 at 1:20 PM, cannondale said:

We have 2 first round picks. I've already said I'd go Edge / OT (arguably the 2 strongest positions in the draft) and if a starting caliber S is there in the second I grab him

That'd be my ideal situation.  Not sure it'll shake out that well given that EDGE and OT are both priority positions.  Both tend to see players go higher than they should.

[Arthur Penske]

7 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

That's not really how it works though.  Right now, you could make an argument that MVS has been top 5 among rookie WRs, but easily top 10.  He's going to get better with more reps.  And we're talking about a position that Rodgers hasn't historically trusted as rookies.  He's on pace to be as productive as some of our best rookie WRs have been under McCarthy and Rodgers.  He's a hit at this point, and he'd have to completely change course in order for that to change.

MVS: 32 receptions, 587 receiving yards, 4.6 TD
James Jones: 47 receptions, 676 receiving yards, 2 TD
Greg Jennings: 45 receptions, 632 receiving yards, 3 TD (14 games)
Jordy Nelson: 33 receptions, 366 receiving yards, 2 TD

That's MVS' rookie year projected over 16 games.  He's as productive, if not more, than all but Greg Jennings.  The future is bright.  Now, the biggest question is will he take that next step?  ESB has looked good in limited reps, but he's not nearly a big enough sample size to make any strong feelings one way or the other.

Is that accounting for the first few games he didn't really play in?

[CWood21]

On 10/27/2018 at 10:21 AM, Outpost31 said:

Considering our best OL - Bakhtiari, Taylor, Lang, Sitton, Linsley, Tretter, etc - were taken after round 2, considering the one outlier in Bulaga, and considering all the busts/disappointments we've had in round2 or higher - Sherrod, Spriggs, Colledge - I really don't know what is going on in the mind of Packer fans to act like we need to make a big investment there. 

The Packers are also a statistical anomaly when it comes to OL.  We've had ridiculous amount of success with mid-round OL.  I mean, look at all the non-1st round OL that the Vikings have taken over the years: Marcus Johnson, Ryan Cook, John Sullivan, Phil Loadholt, Chris DeGeare, Demarcus Love, Brandon Fusco, Jeff Baca, Travis Bond, David Yankey, TJ Clemmings, Tyrus Thompson, Austin Shepard, Willie Beavers, Pat Elflein, and Danny Isidora.  The Vikings have gotten a few career journeymen out of their mid-round OL picks.  We've gotten a few All-Pros and a few more high quality starters.  We've been unusually lucky with our OL selections.