2019 Draft Discussion

[OneTwoSixFive]

17 minutes ago, cannondale said:

At some point if you don't cash in, you are doing yourself a disfavor by dropping to a lower tier of player and getting nothing immediate in return. Why would you want to do that year after year ? Its' dumb. Cash in this year for a multitude of reasons

Not at all. It's all about the specific circumstance of the team. I must also point out that the reason we gained an extra first round pick this year, is because of what we did last year in the draft. For a "multitude of reasons" trading down should be a perfectly viable option whether for extra picks this year and/or next year and should be explored just as thoroughly as staying put. It always will be a value judgement that depends on that unique scenario.

There are numerous scenarios where trading down nets an advantage, whether it is extra picks (this years or future picks), or dropping down but staying within the same tier they would have been in with the higher pick. What tier a potential draftee is in, is normally unverifiable, since you do not know what the Packers board is, and how it's tiers are set up, so an accusation that the Packers dropped a tier is down to your personal evaluation (or online opinions of someone else), not the Packers evaluation.

 

[Victor1124]

14 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

I don't know how we as fans give Adderley anything other than an INC grade. There's just not enough tape out there to really get a good grasp of what he's got going on.

Seems like basically that one highlight reel that got blasted out, jumped him into the 1st round and best safety in the draft. While it was a good highlight reel and I feel into the trap as well, it is kind of strange that he is basically a 1st rounder based off that one reel. 

[PackFan4Life]

5 minutes ago, Victor1124 said:

Seems like basically that one highlight reel that got blasted out, jumped him into the 1st round and best safety in the draft. While it was a good highlight reel and I feel into the trap as well, it is kind of strange that he is basically a 1st rounder based off that one reel. 

I do not believe he is going to be a first rounder. I think he should be there and a good value right around when the Pack selects in Round 2. If not, oh well, I think there are better players available in Round 1 to choose from.

 

 

[OneTwoSixFive]

15 minutes ago, {Family Ghost} said:

Man, this draft is so important .. really need to hit on several picks.  Last years draft has the potential to be very strong .. hope some of those guys can take the big year two step.  If that all happens we will have a roster to be reckoned with for the next several seasons.  

I hear this every - single - year.

Yes it is important. Every year is important. This one isn't special in it's importance, compared to other years. It takes on a seemingly bigger importance because it is happening relatively soon and looms large in peoples minds, but since it is the keystone for the overall ability level of the team, it will always be impactful, for good or ill.

[cannondale]

3 minutes ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

Not at all. It's all about the specific circumstance of the team. I must also point out that the reason we gained an extra first round pick this year, is because of what we did last year in the draft. For a "multitude of reasons" trading down should be a perfectly viable option whether for extra picks this year and/or next year and should be explored just as thoroughly as staying put. It always will be a value judgement that depends on that unique scenario.

There are numerous scenarios where trading down nets an advantage, whether it is extra picks (this years or future picks), or dropping down but staying within the same tier they would have been in with the higher pick. What tier a potential draftee is in, is normally unverifiable, since you do not know what the Packers board is, and how it's tiers are set up, so an accusation that the Packers dropped a tier is down to your personal evaluation (or online opinions of someone else), not the Packers evaluation.

 

I have no problem doing it one year - but if you do it consecutive years, you are not collecting the interest on your loan so to speak

[CWood21]

41 minutes ago, rcon14 said:

I have no problem with OU's offense. If you're an NFL team and don't run a spread/air raid or spread/air raid concept offense, that's a you problem, not a prospect problem.

I don't really have any issue with the spread/air raid offense.  My issue stems from the decision making process.  I'll use Gary Pinkel's offense as a far extreme.  You go back and watch Blaine Gabbert tape from his days at Mizzou and how many reads does he make on a given play?  One, maybe two if it's a particular play.  If that read isn't open, it was a throw it away or tuck it and run option.  Obviously, that's the extreme that clearly isn't the case with Oklahoma, but it does pose the question how many reads does Lincoln Riley ask Kyler to go through?  Based on what I saw, it seems like Baker had a bit more in terms of reads than Kyler did, but I also think Kyler was significantly more conservative than Baker.

[Leader]

7 minutes ago, cannondale said:

I have no problem doing it one year - but if you do it consecutive years, you are not collecting the interest on your loan so to speak

You're playing for retirement.

[CWood21]

1 hour ago, cannondale said:

I read somewhere he may have some maturity issues and some have him in the 2nd round already FWIW

I'm not buying it, especially in the month leading up to the draft.  If there were issues, it would have come up already.

[CWood21]

1 hour ago, Outpost31 said:

Doesn't matter to a lot of teams.  Look at the 2017 draft.  A bad year for receivers.  Still had two of them go top ten (Corey Davis, John Ross) when both were supposed to go in the 20-30 range. 

If a team wants a receiver, they'll take a receiver.  Would not be surprised if two receivers went top ten this year, too.  I'm almost positive Metcalf will go top ten given which teams are picking in the top ten this year. 

I'd take Corey Davis and a healthy Mike Williams over any of the WRs in this year's class.  And using Mike Brown as an example isn't really a great example.

[CWood21]

28 minutes ago, PackFan4Life said:

I agree there is not a huge need for WRs in this draft and where the Pack sits, but I do think Campbell and Samuel could really be special with the right team. There is a chance to really fill out this defense and make it a strength for years to come though moreso then add playmakers on offense in this draft IMO.

But if you're sitting on the board and you have a WR (say Deebo Samuel or Parris Campbell) and another similar valued player at a more valuable position (say EDGE or S), which one do you take?  If my choice is between CGJ or a Campbell/Samuel, I'm taking CGJ.

[mikemike778]

4 minutes ago, cannondale said:

I have no problem doing it one year - but if you do it consecutive years, you are not collecting the interest on your loan so to speak

Personally I would always trade a pick this year for one next year in a higher round (which is the standard going rate for this sort of trade). 

Year 1 -  trade a 2nd  for a 1st next year

Year 2 - trade a 2nd for a 1st next year again - this leaves you with an extra 1st round at the expense of a 2nd round.  If you want (and there's an offer) you can trade the extra 1st to get your second back for some extra picks.

Year 3 - same as Year 2

If you followed that indefinitely then EVERY year after Year 1, you would get additional picks for no cost. Obviously this is pretty simplified and no guarantee you can get any offers but providing my job is safe then I would take each and every deal trading a pick this year for one next year in a higher round. 

[Leader]

Rotoworld Mock Draft:

1. Arizona Cardinals - QB Kyler Murray, Oklahoma
2. San Francisco 49ers - EDGE Nick Bosa, Ohio St
3. New York Jets - iDL Quinnen Williams, Alabama
4. Oakland Raiders - EDGE Josh Allen, Kentucky
5. Tampa Bay Bucs - EDGE Rashan Gary, Michigan
6. New York Giants - EDGE Montez Sweat, Miss St
7. Jacksonville Jaguars - OL Jonah Williams, Alabama
8. Detroit Lions - iDL Christian Wilkins, Clemson
9. Buffalo Bills - WR D.K. Metcalf, Ole Miss
10. Denver Broncos - QB Drew Lock, Missouri
11. Cincinnati Bengals - LB Devin White, LSU
12. Green Bay Packers - LB Devin Bush, Michigan
I was very close to placing Hockenson here. More so than any other position, White and Bush form a clear tier at the top with a large gap to the next group. With the Packers targeting edge rusher in free agency, adding a pillar second level linebacker like Bush makes sense and makes the defense even faster.
13. Miami Dolphins - QB Dwayne Haskins, Ohio State
14. Atlanta Falcons - iDL Ed Oliver, Houston
15. Washington Redskins - TE T.J. Hockenson, Iowa
16. Carolina Panthers - EDGE Brian Burns, FSU
17. New York Giants (via CLE) - T Jawaan Taylor, Florida
18. Minnesota Vikings - T Andre Dillard, Washington St
19. Tennessee Titans - EDGE Clelin Ferrell, Clemson
20. Pittsburgh Steelers - T Greg Little, Ole Miss
21. Seattle Seahawks - OL Cody Ford, Oklahoma
22. Baltimore Ravens - iOL Garrett Bradbury, NC St
23. Houston Texans - T Kaleb McGary, Washington
24. Oakland Raiders (via CHI) - RB Josh Jacobs, Alabama
25. Philadelphia Eagles - CB Byron Murphy, Washington
26. Indianapolis Colts - iDL Jerry Tillery, Notre Dame
27. Oakland Raiders (via DAL) - CB Greedy Williams, LSU
28. Los Angeles Chargers - iDL Dre’Mont Jones, Ohio St
29. Kansas City Chiefs - WR Marquise Brown, Oklahoma
30. Green Bay Packers (via NO) - TE Noah Fant, Iowa
Not fair. 98th percentile tight end athlete with production to back it up to a team with a need at the position. For their draft slot ESB and MVS performed well, but adding a piece like Fant, especially on the inside, could really help.
31. Los Angeles Rams - iOL Chris Lindstrom, BC
32. New England Patriots - DL Dexter Lawrence, Clemson

 

[cannondale]

1 minute ago, mikemike778 said:

Personally I would always trade a pick this year for one next year in a higher round (which is the standard going rate for this sort of trade). 

Year 1 -  trade a 2nd  for a 1st next year

Year 2 - trade a 2nd for a 1st next year again - this leaves you with an extra 1st round at the expense of a 2nd round.  If you want (and there's an offer) you can trade the extra 1st to get your second back for some extra picks.

Year 3 - same as Year 2

If you followed that indefinitely then EVERY year after Year 1, you would get additional picks for no cost. Obviously this is pretty simplified and no guarantee you can get any offers but providing my job is safe then I would take each and every deal trading a pick this year for one next year in a higher round. 

That's a tougher sell. There was a team I can't remember who was trading future 1's for 2's. That's a tough partner to find.

Trading down multiple consecutive years just means you're doing it for free .... until you finally cash in. Makes no sense to me

[CWood21]

1 hour ago, cannondale said:

At some point if you don't cash in, you are doing yourself a disfavor by dropping to a lower tier of player and getting nothing immediate in return. Why would you want to do that year after year ? Its' dumb. Cash in this year for a multitude of reasons

In theory, you're essentially replacing your pick this year with a pick next year that is hopefully higher.  Say the Packers "punt" their second FRP into next year to say the Cowboys.  If they flop like we would have hoped, you're now getting a top 10 pick and in an ideal world the Packers do well so their natural selection falls in that 22-32 range.  They use their top 10 pick from the Cowboys, and then flip their natural selection into the 2021 draft.

Unfortunately, the reality is that teams don't usually trade FRP unless you're dealing with a QB as part of the trade.  The exception to that is when teams are limited in the draft as far as draft capital goes.  New Orleans is a prime example of this as they dealt their SRP the previous year as part of the trade up for Alvin Kamara, and the Packers weren't moving from 12 to 27 for a measly 3rd round pick.  The last time we saw a team traded a FRP that didn't involve a QB or pre-draft trade was when the Falcons traded up from 26 to 6.  The last time a team "punted" a FRP was in 2011 when the Patriots traded their FRP (#28) for the Saints SRP (#56) and their '12 FRP.  Before then, in 2007 the Patriots traded FRP (#28) for a 4th round pick (#110) and a 1st round pick in 2008.  That's not a strong history.

[CWood21]

10 minutes ago, Leader said:

Rotoworld Mock Draft:

1. Arizona Cardinals - QB Kyler Murray, Oklahoma
2. San Francisco 49ers - EDGE Nick Bosa, Ohio St
3. New York Jets - iDL Quinnen Williams, Alabama
4. Oakland Raiders - EDGE Josh Allen, Kentucky
5. Tampa Bay Bucs - EDGE Rashan Gary, Michigan
6. New York Giants - EDGE Montez Sweat, Miss St
7. Jacksonville Jaguars - OL Jonah Williams, Alabama
8. Detroit Lions - iDL Christian Wilkins, Clemson
9. Buffalo Bills - WR D.K. Metcalf, Ole Miss
10. Denver Broncos - QB Drew Lock, Missouri
11. Cincinnati Bengals - LB Devin White, LSU
12. Green Bay Packers - LB Devin Bush, Michigan
I was very close to placing Hockenson here. More so than any other position, White and Bush form a clear tier at the top with a large gap to the next group. With the Packers targeting edge rusher in free agency, adding a pillar second level linebacker like Bush makes sense and makes the defense even faster.
13. Miami Dolphins - QB Dwayne Haskins, Ohio State
14. Atlanta Falcons - iDL Ed Oliver, Houston
15. Washington Redskins - TE T.J. Hockenson, Iowa
16. Carolina Panthers - EDGE Brian Burns, FSU
17. New York Giants (via CLE) - T Jawaan Taylor, Florida
18. Minnesota Vikings - T Andre Dillard, Washington St
19. Tennessee Titans - EDGE Clelin Ferrell, Clemson
20. Pittsburgh Steelers - T Greg Little, Ole Miss
21. Seattle Seahawks - OL Cody Ford, Oklahoma
22. Baltimore Ravens - iOL Garrett Bradbury, NC St
23. Houston Texans - T Kaleb McGary, Washington
24. Oakland Raiders (via CHI) - RB Josh Jacobs, Alabama
25. Philadelphia Eagles - CB Byron Murphy, Washington
26. Indianapolis Colts - iDL Jerry Tillery, Notre Dame
27. Oakland Raiders (via DAL) - CB Greedy Williams, LSU
28. Los Angeles Chargers - iDL Dre’Mont Jones, Ohio St
29. Kansas City Chiefs - WR Marquise Brown, Oklahoma
30. Green Bay Packers (via NO) - TE Noah Fant, Iowa
Not fair. 98th percentile tight end athlete with production to back it up to a team with a need at the position. For their draft slot ESB and MVS performed well, but adding a piece like Fant, especially on the inside, could really help.
31. Los Angeles Rams - iOL Chris Lindstrom, BC
32. New England Patriots - DL Dexter Lawrence, Clemson

 

Another awful draft.  You have a DL and EDGE of similar (if not greater) value, and you pass on him for an ILB.  And you take a TE at 30 on top of that...