squire12 Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, CWood21 said: I mean, that should be the case across the board, no? If he's the 21st pick and WR was taken at 20, shouldn't they essentially be given the same "amount" of opportunities? Either way, I added a second link which confirms the fact that OL are the "safest" position to draft in the first round. My running theory is that it has more to do with the lack of quality OL available. Yes you posted the article, but did you read it and look at it? Quote That’s why, for now at least, it may not be possible to truly say whether certain positions are more or less likely to live up to their draft-day expectations. It’s another unanswerable question to throw onto the pile of things about the NFL draft that we just don’t know. Look at the OL chart. 1st round is just below 60%, 2nd round is around below 70%, round 4 is above 60%, round 5 is just a touch less than the round 1 %. Yet your statement made is sound like a slam dunk that OL in round 1/2 were light years ahead of those in 4-6...which the chart at least for round 4 and 5 is not representative of your statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 1 minute ago, squire12 said: Look at the OL chart. 1st round is just below 60%, 2nd round is around below 70%, round 4 is above 60%, round 5 is just a touch less than the round 1 %. Yet your statement made is sound like a slam dunk that OL in round 1/2 were light years ahead of those in 4-6...which the chart at least for round 4 and 5 is not representative of your statement. I made that original comment off of the Arrowhead Pride article, not the other link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaireAlex Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 4 minutes ago, Leader said: So what do you think? Do I get to sit in the GM chair come draft day? My worst case scenario in one. Only want Warring in one (and don't know about Boykin). Thornhill has way too much bust in him for me. No to Thompson too. My top 4 rounds at S are Adderley, CGJ, Savage, Hooker, Harris for now. Don't want the others. Risner doesn't pass agility threshold. Burns is now off my board entirely. That's a pick we trade to Chicago (2&3&FFR) because Gute will convince them two Floyds have a better chance than one at the QB opposite Mack. I would do that trade in a 💓 beat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 5 minutes ago, JaireAlex said: My worst case scenario in one. Only want Warring in one (and don't know about Boykin). Thornhill has way too much bust in him for me. No to Thompson too. My top 4 rounds at S are Adderley, CGJ, Savage, Hooker, Harris for now. Don't want the others. Risner doesn't pass agility threshold. Burns is now off my board entirely. That's a pick we trade to Chicago (2&3&FFR) because Gute will convince them two Floyds have a better chance than one at the QB opposite Mack. I would do that trade in a 💓 beat I didnt know about Boykin either 12 - Brian Burns, EDGE 30 - Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, S 44 - Chris Lindstrom, IOL 75 - Terry McLaurin, WR 114 - Dennis Daley, OT 118 - Josh Oliver, TE Sorry to hear 'bout your burning Burns off your list....but he;'s still on mine! I keep getting snookered on my TE selections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaireAlex Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, Leader said: I didnt know about Boykin either 12 - Brian Burns, EDGE 30 - Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, S 44 - Chris Lindstrom, IOL 75 - Terry McLaurin, WR 114 - Dennis Daley, OT 118 - Josh Oliver, TE Sorry to hear 'bout your burning Burns off your list....but he;'s still on mine! I keep getting snookered on my TE selections. Just trade 12 to Pittsburg for Watt and I like. And Prince for Daley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 4 hours ago, CWood21 said: Care to guess what the success rate of OL in the first round? A report a few years ago pegged it around 83% success rate. Care to guess what the success rate of rounds 4-6 were? 4th round success rate was 29% while 5th and 6th round success rate was 16%. I think we as Packers fans have been spoiled by how well the Packers have developed OL (IOL in particular) out of mid-to-late picks that we have unrealistic expectations. Again, some more interesting items from the article beyond just the statistics you sited Quote On average, 5 linemen are drafted in the first round. The first and second rounds, on average, draft the fewest offensive linemen. If you were ranking rounds by the numbers drafted it would run 7th, 6th, 5th, 4th, 3rd, 1st, 2nd For all of you pro offensive line with the first pick, the low "bust" factor plays to your advantage. Although it can be countered that there is a pretty high success rate later on in comparison with other positions. This would support the argument that you can wait some and still have a good chance of success. For the Chiefs, the last three years have seen the Chiefs select two OL each draft. Dorsey so far has drafted four OL, with three coming in the sixth round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 27 minutes ago, JaireAlex said: My worst case scenario in one. Only want Warring in one (and don't know about Boykin). Thornhill has way too much bust in him for me. No to Thompson too. My top 4 rounds at S are Adderley, CGJ, Savage, Hooker, Harris for now. Don't want the others. Risner doesn't pass agility threshold. Burns is now off my board entirely. That's a pick we trade to Chicago (2&3&FFR) because Gute will convince them two Floyds have a better chance than one at the QB opposite Mack. I would do that trade in a 💓 beat Not sure what you are seeing with Risner not passing agility threshold. I have seen 2 different times listed for his 10yard split. 1 being 1.93, the other being like 1.72. From mockdraftable on Risner. The shuttle and 3 cone times are fine. Measurable Measurement %tile Height 6' 4¾" 16 Weight 312 lbs 45 Wingspan 81⅛" 35 Arm Length 34" 42 Hand Size 10¼" 66 40 Yard Dash 5.3s 44 Vertical Jump 28½" 55 Broad Jump 110" 87 3-Cone Drill 7.69s 69 20 Yard Shuttle 4.52s 87 Bench Press 23 reps 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 12 - Ed Oliver, IDL 30 - T.J. Hockenson, TE 44 - Parris Campbell, WR 75 - Darnell Savage, S 114 - Justice Hill, RB 118 - Corey Ballentine, CB No Olineman this time round. Oh well....maybe next year. Dont know a thing about #118 - but when your last names the same as a beer - you deserve a shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrettFavre004 Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 5 hours ago, CWood21 said: Because he plays for Washington State... I don’t know, Eric Fischer went #1 overall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaireAlex Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 1 hour ago, Leader said: 12 - Ed Oliver, IDL 30 - T.J. Hockenson, TE 44 - Parris Campbell, WR 75 - Darnell Savage, S 114 - Justice Hill, RB 118 - Corey Ballentine, CB No Olineman this time round. Oh well....maybe next year. Dont know a thing about #118 - but when your last names the same as a beer - you deserve a shot TDN just gives me my worst case scenario. so I am now drafting the All Pro special teams dream team. I want Jacobs strictly for punt returns. He's fun to watch there. 12) Josh Jacobs 30) Hock 44) Savage I just wish that Detroit would take Burns. Then Fackrell could rack up more sacks than our rival team's sleek, fleet footed top ten pass trio of Barr, Floyd, AND Burns. He topped the dynamic duo this year despite Barr having three freebees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lodestar Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 1 hour ago, JaireAlex said: Burns is now off my board entirely. That's a pick we trade to Chicago (2&3&FFR) because Gute will convince them two Floyds have a better chance than one at the QB opposite Mack. I would do that trade in a 💓 beat First of all, Chicago doesn't have a 2nd this year. Secondly, you're trading 12th overall for a late 2nd, late 3rd, and a future 1st? Are you out of your mind? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaireAlex Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Lodestar said: First of all, Chicago doesn't have a 2nd this year. Secondly, you're trading 12th overall for a late 2nd, late 3rd, and a future 1st? Are you out of your mind? Worth it so many ways though. Chicago gets another Floyd which will blow up their fan base. Our 3rd round pick will be better than Burns, not to mention Fackrell. Chicago loses more high picks. Plus we get a high first next year so the forum can salivate over the next great overrated edge prospect for another year. Wins all around. Edited March 23, 2019 by JaireAlex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 1 hour ago, squire12 said: Not sure what you are seeing with Risner not passing agility threshold. I have seen 2 different times listed for his 10yard split. 1 being 1.93, the other being like 1.72. From mockdraftable on Risner. The shuttle and 3 cone times are fine. Measurable Measurement %tile Height 6' 4¾" 16 Weight 312 lbs 45 Wingspan 81⅛" 35 Arm Length 34" 42 Hand Size 10¼" 66 40 Yard Dash 5.3s 44 Vertical Jump 28½" 55 Broad Jump 110" 87 3-Cone Drill 7.69s 69 20 Yard Shuttle 4.52s 87 Bench Press 23 reps 42 If accurate, those are great numbers for him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burnett42 Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 (edited) 14 hours ago, Victor1124 said: This is my thought as well and has been for awhile. I get wanting to plan for the future and how important having a good offensive line is but the obsession here with taking offensive lineman early and in some cases multiple offensive lineman even after the Billy Turner signing is kind of strange, imo. I also agree that almost every position on the O-line besides LT is basically plug and play their rookie year. It definitely depends on value but there are a lot of other positions of need I would prefer to fill and then focus on grabbing O-line next year with one of our top 2 picks if needed. I have mentioned this before but it is still no guarantee that Bulaga isn't re-signed. With his age, level of play, and if he has another healthy season( I feel like last season would be considered healthy for him), it is possible, depending on how much he would cost, that he is retained. I am not saying that is something I would do given his injury history but I also wouldn't be shocked if that happened. Hell, Bulaga could go down and Spriggs could play his butt of for a majority of the season and possibly be viewed as a future RT. I'm shocked by the number of people that are acting like LT is more important and takes longer to develope than RT. Its 2019!!! They're not that different anymore. Some teams have their best pass rushers going against the RT. Both Tackles are premium postions and drafting a RT for next year early should be on the Packers radar. Edited March 23, 2019 by Burnett42 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfanfb Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 Seen some chatter about this comment by White. Aside from whether you'd draft him at 12 or not, any problem with his "$100 million" comment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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